FanPost

Kelly Johnson - a "bad" 2011?

I read a lot of how the Jays need players like Lind, Rasmus and Cecil to step up in 2012 and play like they have in the past. For each of these players, 2011 was not a <ahem> "banner year".

Kelly Johnson is also mentioned in that category. Clearly, his time with Arizona was disappointing. But - as a mental exercise, let's examine his 2011 stats while with the Jays and see what they would extrapolate to in a full season in 2012, assuming no improvement at all.

In 33 games (132 PAs) with Toronto, Kelly had a .270 / .364 / .417 line, with a baseball reference.com WAR of 0.9.

Kelly averaged 642 PAs over 2010 and 2011. Assuming 642 PAs in 2012, extrapolating based on 2011, he would have a WAR of 4.4.

In 2011, there were 18 players who played at least 50% of their games at 2B and had enough ABs to qualify for the batting title. Relative to that group, ...

  • Kelly's .270 BA would have been 9th, just ahead of Weeks and Zobrist
  • His .364 OBP would have been second only to Pedroia's .387
  • His SLG of .417, while not outstanding, would still have been 9th
  • A WAR of 4.4 would have been 5th, just behind Cano's 4.6

Kelly is projected to earn $6-7 million in arbitration in 2012. If can maintain the same pace that he did for the Jays in 2011, I for one would be satisfied that the Jays received full value.

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