Make Your Predictions: Colby Rasmus

by Tom Dakers on Jan 17, 2012 10:00 AM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions

Colby Rasmus. (Photo by Brad White/Getty Images)

Here is one that I have no clue what to guess for his 2012 season. Colby Rasmus could hit anywhere from .200 to .325 and it wouldn't surprise me. I think, in the long run, he'll be a good player, but I am not sure if that will happen next year or not.

His career numbers are here.

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2009	22	STL	147	520	474	72	119	22	2	16	52	3	1	36	95	.251	.307	.407	.714
2010	23	STL	144	534	464	85	128	28	3	23	66	12	8	63	148	.276	.361	.498	.859
2011	24	TOT	129	526	471	75	106	24	6	14	53	5	2	50	116	.225	.298	.391	.688
2011	24	STL	94	386	338	61	83	14	6	11	40	5	2	45	77	.246	.332	.420	.753
2011	24	TOR	35	140	133	14	23	10	0	3	13	0	0	5	39	.173	.201	.316	.517
3 Seasons			420	1580	1409	232	353	74	11	53	171	20	11	149	359	.251	.322	.432	.754

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/16/2012.

It is tough to figure out which is the real Colby. Bill James figures him to hit .255/.334/.446 with 18 home runs and 56 RBI in 137 games. I guessing a couple more homers, so something like .250/.325/.475 with 22 homers and 65 RBI in 140 games.

Give us your guess.

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Comments

Very tough

If you crunch the numbers, something like what you suggest seems very reasonable. Having seen Rasmus play though – that swing is just so beautiful when it’s on, and I think he can hit for a bit higher average. I’ll say .265/.335//485 with 20 HR.

by 4dizzle on Jan 17, 2012 10:11 AM EST reply actions

.255/.350/.495

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 17, 2012 10:16 AM EST via mobile reply actions

About 5 fWAR with below average defence

that would be nice!

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

Rasmus is one of those guys

that make me go hmmm, about defensive metrics. my eyes tell me he’s a good CF. He got to a couple of balls last year that not a lot of guys would have.

by ABsteve on Jan 17, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

Against the Yankees, Alvarez on the mound

He made an unbelievable catch on a ball smacked to the gap, cutting away from him…video

Ironically, the ankees ended up winning…the winning pitcher: Aaron Laffey

by MjwW on Jan 17, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions

Wrong day, but it was great catch.

The “Alvarez” game was a lesson to the younger Jays…

“And that’s why you don’t let up on the Yanks.”

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 17, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Crap

I originally clicked on the wrong video, found the right one, and thought the link had refreshed…actual video (have to scroll down video options)

by MjwW on Jan 17, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not saying he has below average defence

But with slightly below average defense and those offensive numbers, he would be worth about 5 fWAR and be easily in the top 10 of CF in the league, closer to top 5, which would be very nice :). With above average defence, it would be closer to 6 fWAR and easily in the top 5.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

I thought he was excellent with the Jays, albeit in a small sample. So smooth and showed a lot of range.

by Sniderlover on Jan 17, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

I like Pikachu's numbers

I’m going to go with that. In fact, I’m just going to piggyback on all of his predictions from now on.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 17, 2012 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

This is more or less exactly what I was going to post. Probably would bump the BA up a tick, but I think the OBP and SLG are definitely closer to these numbers than the career numbers.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 17, 2012 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

140 Games – .270/.355/.455 – 19HR, 75 RBI

by Marc Henderson on Jan 17, 2012 10:22 AM EST reply actions

I can see why the Jays wanted him.

I’d never really watched him before the trade, he flashes loud tools. His swing reminds me of Jose’s when we first got him, everything looks bunched and hurried. I’m sure the Jays are trying to incorporate the same adjustment..be interesting to see if his coachability concerns are for real. I can’t make a prediction, my gut tells me he’ll be boom or bust.

by ABsteve on Jan 17, 2012 10:28 AM EST reply actions

To me, his swing looks like ARod’s (except obviously from the other side). I agree his swing looks hurried. Seems like he’d be a good candidate for D. Murphy to help a la Jose.

by interestingmonkey on Jan 17, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

.265/.345/.460

23 HR
72 RBI
32 2B
One flare up with coaching staff

"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu

by kdlishus on Jan 17, 2012 10:37 AM EST reply actions

.260/.320/.440

19 HR

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 17, 2012 10:43 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Boo this maaaaan

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 17, 2012 10:48 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I don’t see why people think his discipline won’t improve. Good walk rate, decreasing K rate. Bit more luck with BABIP and he could easily be in the .350 range for OBP.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 17, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

I dunno

2011 worries me.

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 17, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

I get that. But if his BABIP comes back at all and he can maintain a walk rate around 10 and a K rate around 22, I think he should be able to OBP better than 320.

Also – while I think that he may not ISO .222 every year, I don’t think expecting something in the .200 range is unreasonable, especially at Rogers Centre for half his games.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 17, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

could be

hopefully he beats my projection by a lot

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 17, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

150 games
.255/.325/.450
25 HR

Takes advantage of some increased power due to Rogers Centre

by MjwW on Jan 17, 2012 10:45 AM EST reply actions

hmmm ...

.250/.340/.450
145G, 26HR, 70RBI

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 10:48 AM EST reply actions

I have never liked his swing.

It is way too long and inconsistent. Although he does have a lot of power. I still remember the HR he hit in Oakland!
.239/.308/.444
17HR, 57RBI

by JaysFan101 on Jan 17, 2012 10:50 AM EST reply actions

Too Long?

Doesn’t look long to me. Compact I’d say.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONWos1san3g&feature=related
At 2:45 look who he hits a bomb against.

Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"

by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Jan 17, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions

And I think

.265/.335/.480
26 bombs.
85 RBIs
10 ESPN web gems. (For those who live in the US)

Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"

by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Jan 17, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

.260/.330/.450
20 HR
140 games

Jose Bautista has a higher midi-chlorian count than you do.

by Jays11 on Jan 17, 2012 10:56 AM EST reply actions

Optimism

.260/.330/.480 …. power swing is going to come through this year

by AkiSchennberg on Jan 17, 2012 11:00 AM EST reply actions

I think he will surprise.

.290//350/.500

26 Home Runs, 85 RBI’s, 105 runs. I think he will firmly end up at the #5 spot in the order, but also getting some AB’s at #2.

by ddbumpus on Jan 17, 2012 11:48 AM EST reply actions

.260 ave.
19 hrs.
77 rbi’s.

by Alan F. on Jan 17, 2012 2:22 PM EST reply actions

Such easy power, I'm optimistic with this one

.271/.359/.497

27 HRs, 79 RBIs

by VinBZ on Jan 17, 2012 3:32 PM EST reply actions

I expect him to bounce back and have a pretty good season.

.270/.355/.480 with plus defense.

by Sniderlover on Jan 17, 2012 3:32 PM EST reply actions

I’d be happy with what Bill James predicted. I’d name my next child Colby if MjwW is correct. I see him more along the lines of 143 games with .250/.320/.440

by FanInJapan on Jan 17, 2012 3:52 PM EST reply actions

Lol

Okay, I had to check to make sure I hadn;t put something crazy optimistic there.

Bill James has him for a 780 OPS…I projected a 775 OPS. So basically the same. We had the same BA, I had 4 points more power and 9 points less OBP, so in terms of wOBA James would be slightly more optimistic as well (slightly larger gap).

by MjwW on Jan 17, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

Talking More About the Power

If Rasmus becomes a true 25+ HR guy, and Lawrie develops into the same, I believe you have a very solid middle of the lineup and protection to Bautista. If he’s where James says he his and is more of a 15/20 HR guy, then he’s a 7th hitter at best IMHO. I’m just setting my expectations low on his so I’m not disapointed. Though, I really don’t feel we gave up anything to acquire him and give him this opportunity. So I’m on the please be more Yunel with a healthly dose of some Bautista mixed in this year.

by FanInJapan on Jan 17, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions