Jays Exchange Arbitration Numbers with Francisco, Janssen, Johnson and Morrow
by Tom Dakers on Jan 17, 2012 12:26 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays News
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PrintMike Wilner is report that the Jays haven't signed Ben Francisco, Casey Janssen, Kelly Johnson and Brandon Morrow, so they will have exchanged arbitration numbers for each.
Alex Anthopoulos has a policy of not negotiating one year deals after the deadline, so unless any of the four sign longer term contracts, they will be going in front of an arbitrator. I'd imagine Alex would like to sign Morrow to a 3 or 4 year deal. I'd like him to sign Casey Janssen for a couple or three years too. There is some chance that Johnson would sign too but I'm betting he and Francisco are getting ready to face the judge.
I'm surprised, I figured all four would have signed by now, I didn't think the Jays would want to go to arbitration with anyone, it isn't a fun process. Going in front of an arbitrator isn't the most fun in the world. You have to say why the player isn't as good as he thinks he is, that would be something I'd like to avoid.
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Exchange of numbers
Just because they’ve exchanged numbers, that doesn’t automatically mean they’ll end up in an arbitration meeting. In fact, it’s entirely likely that all four will have a contract before the meeting. The only real variable will be the number of years. A single year deal means that they couldn’t work out a long term deal and they’ll do it all over again the following year. If both sides have reasonable numbers, it should be possible for both sides to come to a number so that they don’t have to go into the meeting.
I agree about possibility of long-term deals (i.e. at least 1 year + option)
But AA’s policy is to never sign a 1 year contract after exchanging arbitration numbers.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
That's right
JoeyBats and Bluejays went between 7 and 10 million and ended up on 15 million a year.
by BrownMagician on Jan 17, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
first, the deal is $13M per year
second, the deal bought out an arbitration year in which Bats received $8M under the new contract. third, Playoffs!!!!!1 said that AA’s stated policy is to not avoid arbitration on a one year deal after the arbitration deadline, which is not what happened to Bautista. AA does seem open to signing extensions longer than one year after the arbitration deadline.
I agree with Tom
I think its likely that Janssen and Morrow sign multi-year deals, and that Ben and KJ go in front of the judge. It really doesn’t seem like KJ is the type of guy AA wants to keep around, and Ben is probably looking to maximize his payout. I doubt the Jays would lock him up longer term, without having him play for us.
@VagabondBansal
He says a lot publicly
I’m sure there are a ton of players AA has been trying to get for a while…doesn;t really mean anything about whether he’s want them on contractsat the going market rate (ie, if they’re free agents)
Well, I can’t speak for Vagabond but AA’s public musings about having Johnson maybe play some LF and Johnson’s public “wut?”, the fact that Johnson wasn’t extended before he had to accept arbitration, the fact that they haven’t been able to come to a decision and look to be heading towards a arbitration meeting, interviews where Johnson talks about the org or the org talks about Johnson lack a certain amount of “zest” from each side IMO… a lot of little things keep adding up that make me think that AA doesn’t see KJ as a long-term piece of the puzzle.
So yeah, I kind of agree with Vagabond.
I agree with this
I think AA likes and liked Johnson, but not at an expensive, medium to long term at market rate deal. And I definitely think he wanted those picks (and with a good year from Johnson, may end up getting them).
complete conjecture on my part
but Alex did seem really pissy after KJ accepted arb, talking about playing him in LF and whatnot. I think he really wanted the picks.
Not a big deal
I wouldn’t mind having KJ and Francisco go in front of the judge. They are both big boys and can use some trashing after last season.
I'm not even going to touch your points
but you know we’re talking about Ben Francisco, not Frank Francisco right
Yes
the 5th outfielder Francisco whose OPS has taken quite a dip last year from typical 770 to barely 700.
limited sample mind you
but his power really disappeared last year. SLG down 80 points, ISO down 50.
it's strange
he had a great year by plate discipline (11 BB%, 14 K%) but a really poor year by BABIP (30 points below career average). if his batted ball line recovers he could be a very good utility player
probably laid off pitches too much
my guess would be that he intentionally worked deep into the count and used a shorter swing to assure contact. More balls stay in the infield and BABIP goes down. If he goes back to his old ways he should bounce back, it would make him better than Davis.
My guesses are:
Johnson: Goes to arbitration resolution
Morrow: Multi-year extension
Janssen: 1 Year + Club Option
Francisco: 1 Year + Club Option
Agreed
except for Francisco. I would be surprised if they wanted to give him an option (unless there was no buyout attached to it).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
I don't want Janssen extended for three years
As much as I like him, and as good as he was last year, he’s essentially close to a FA, and giving out 3 year deals to FA relievers generally doesn’t work out well. Uless, of course, there was a significant home town discount. I think two years and a vesting option (preferably a team option, but vesting based on innings would work) would be as far as I’d go. 1+1 would be more ideal. Especially with the pitching depth coming up, no sense tying up money to keep relievers at the market rate.
Also, while his K rate and BB rate has been pretty stable the last two years, it was the HR/FB ratio that really helped him last year. Based on Rogers Centre and his previous numbers, I’d be skeptical that holds up
granted
but one can do worse than having a 3.25 xFIP reliever around (still wouldn’t be thrilled with a three year guaranteed deal)
For sure
My point is, you’d be paying him based on a career year he’s unlikely to replicate…ultaimtely, I don’t care about the dollars, it’s the years.
so that's pretty good
K/9 over 8 and BB/9 under 3 is good… but obviously it comes down to the terms if it’s a good deal or not
But the other thing is
He’s 30, so you can’t expect him to maintain those rates going forward. it’s a godo estimate of his true talent the past two years, but not encessarily going forward, which is what you’re paying for
But will they call within 3 days?
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 17, 2012 1:21 PM EST reply actions
Wilner, just now
#Bluejays still haven’t announced contracts with KJ, Janssen, Francisco, @2Morrow23 – expect to hear that 3 of them haven’t signed yet #jays
Interesting that he expects one to have signed
Update
From @MLB
OFFICIAL: @BlueJays avoid arbitration with 2B Kelly Johnson ($6.375 million) and OF Ben Francisco ($1,537,500).
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
payroll
at about $66m pending the contracts of Morrow and Janssen.
Teahan
im assuming your not including teahan, my math worked out to just a touch over 70 with his 5.5 included
Teahen was DFA.
Likely a buyout candidate, no?
by allcanadian34 on Jan 17, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
likely a straight up release
but we pay the 5.5 so i accounted for that in the payroll. I was just checking my numbers so if you dont have Teahan included we are on the same page
ive been corrected so many times
haha please ignore in the future, hes no longer a Jay so i no longer put the effort to spell his name haha
AA said mid to high 80's
I think he was including forecasted draft and int’l FA expenditure, since it’s now fixed.
included Teahen
not sure where we may be different
my numbers include 30 players, including Teahen. I used $450k for pre-arb players and got the rest of the numbers from Cot’s. So it’s likely overstated because they prorate bonus over the life of contract so Hechavarria, for example, at $2.75m is overstated for 2012.
COTs was missing Oliver's 4M and Rauch's 250k
Did you get those in there?
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
go see Davidis tweet
basically confirms just over 70 after pre arb players added
i didnt include hech i have 23 plus Teahen,
which came out to 70 ish, anyways small difference no big, i dont know how you got less with more players there. Maybe you have a few numbers wrong
looks better now
adding Oliver/Frasor and deducting a few prorated bonuses
Are you still missing Oliver?
Cause that is exactly 4M off of what I have
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Hech's salary is a ML salary
so no matter where he plays, it should be counted.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Hech
Depends on the way the bonus was to be paid out. He gets a $1.75M salary in 2012, with $1M being pro-rated bonus. If the bonus was all paid out at the time, then it shouldn’t be counted again. If it to be paid over the 4 years, then the $2.75 is right.
COTS has it down as 2.75M for 2012 and 2013
for whatever that’s worth.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
I think they just amortize bonuses
I don’t think they actually know about how bonuses are paid out so they just amortize bonuses for every contract
No
Where they do know, they include it in the year of payout. I’ve been through hundreds of Cot’s pages doing the free agent and extension values research
I don't think there is
If Cot’s doesn’t have it, then it probably wasn’t publically disclosed. In which case, pro-rating makes sense as an assumption. And really, even if you don’t as long as you do something consistent it’s not an issue (ie, treat all bonuses as cash paid in year of signing).
With amateur free agent major league signings (as with Hech), pro-rating makes sense because the teams are allowed to do it (with draftees they can’t, under the new CBA)
i think we're overthinking this
sometimes a signing bonus is deferred for various (usually tax) reasons, but otherwise it’s paid up front. That’s why they call it a signing bonus.
Again, it's how the bonus is paid out that matters
His salary, as I said is $1.75M.
His bonus was $4M. Whe Cot’s doesn’t know how the bonus is paid out, they prorate it. Otherwise they include it in the year it’s paid out
I guess it depends on what you are going to compare payrolls to
If you are comparing COTS to COTS, then best to use 2.75.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Depends on what you consider the payroll
But if you take into account a bunch of extra minimum contracts (we will inevitably have more than just 25 players play for the Jays) then we’re looking at just over 80M. The starting 25 plus buyouts will probably be about 77.5M (assuming 4.2M for Morrow and 1.6M for Jannssen)
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
right now
they make a little more than $400k for the year. For guys that shuttle back and forth between MLB and MiLB there are complicated rules, but the gist is that you get paid prorated MLB salary when on the 25 man roster and MiLB money when in MiLB.
Where it gets complicated is the year after, because there is a minimum of the previous year’s salary that you have to be paid even if you are in MiLB for more/the whole time. For example, even if Mike McCoy spends all year this year in Vegas, he would still be paid some percentage (I think it’s 60%, but not sure the exact number) of whatever he made last year between his MiLB time and his prorated MLB salary.
the new CBA
calls for increases in the MLB minimum salary. IIRC, it’s going to go up to 500k in the next few years. It’s like 440k or so right now.
Depends on experience
MiLB vets in AAA can make over 100K, inexperienced players at the lower levels will make a couple grand a month
I think some of those wages would be paid by the minor league team though. I think only the Dunedin teams would be paid by the Jays.
No, the Blue Jays play for all players and coaches. Minor league teams pay for stadium rights, equipment, travel and accommodations
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 17, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
yes, yes
with the latter being a 1 year + option contract
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 17, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
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