Make Your Predictions: Eric Thames
by Tom Dakers on Jan 19, 2012 1:44 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintI was going to do Travis Snider and Eric Thames together but decided to separate them.
The problem with guessing what Eric will do is it is dependent on whether he or Travis wins the left field job. I'd rather they go with Travis, as he has the potential to something special but I don't know which way the team is leaning.
We took a close look at Eric's 2011 here, but here is his line with Toronto.
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 24 | TOR | 95 | 394 | 362 | 58 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 88 | .262 | .313 | .456 | .769 | 104 |
| 1 Season | 95 | 394 | 362 | 58 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 88 | .262 | .313 | .456 | .769 | 104 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 672 | 617 | 99 | 162 | 41 | 9 | 20 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 39 | 150 | .262 | .313 | .456 | .769 | 104 | ||
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I’ll say 105 – 16 homers, 72 RBIs, 270/330/485 – I think his power will be significantly higher with his new arms…
this isn't Base Wars
they’re the same arms as before
by benk on Jan 19, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Can you tell me what channel Base Wars is on?
That sounds like an awesome sport/show.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 19, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, I'm video game challenged
as in I don’t own any.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 19, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
I would think that the LF job should be Snider's to lose
I think that Snider should be given every possible opportunity to try it again in the majors this year, unless Thames really really outshines in Spring Training, just thinking in terms of options.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 19, 2012 2:17 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think Sniders already lost his job
to a photograph of his competitions arms.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 19, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, those arms...
Easily trump that weedy mustache that Moonraker featured.
Poor Travis, he thought growing a real mustache would bring out the power he showed when he had that fake ‘stache in Cito’s retirement game. Sorry, guns > upper lip hair.
Big year for Thames!!!
.275/.335/.499
135 games, 24 HR, 85 RBI
Snider takes some games in left but doesn’t improve, in the end Thames is the starter.
Snider gets traded midseason for another highly touted struggling early 20’s player.
Thames' line
I’d say like .270/.325/.465. No idea on counting stats since I’m not sure how many games he’ll play.
Wonder when people will stop putting Snider over Thames. Maybe he was better 2-3 years ago, but the Snider we saw last year had a horrible swing and was not the same player who came up.
Thames was much more upbeat
Snider seemed very frustrated. It was more fun to watch Thames last year. But, as a Jays fan, I hope both are monsters next year.
In all seriousness though
I hope if Snider wins the starting job in LF, he gets some room to work with. The first time he was sent down to AAA was definitely justifiable, the second time… I don’t know. Don’t want to beat a dead horse but if he and Thames were coming off a similar month in terms of the bat and both were scuffling, and Travis’ defense was significantly better, why not send Thames down? Even if he goes cold for a week I think Travis needs to get a good, long look (given that there are some bright spots, like there were for that first month back last season).
I think the difference was
While Thames was struggling, he was just struggling. Snider was struggling because he’d lost the mechanical changes to his swing that he went down to AAA to develop. They sent him back down to regain them.
Snider in 2010
was as good as Thames in 2011, at 2 years younger. unless Thames can improve his defense (maybe he can, maybe he can’t), then Thames will have to hit like crazy to be as valuable as Snider, even if Snider never turns into the slugger we thought he would
He was
But then he regressed. The Snider we saw last year had an all arms swing where he didn’t use his lower body. Much different from the nice power stroke he had before. This also answered the question of why it was Snider who got sent down last year. His swing looked horrible. Thames has holes in his swing no doubt, but he actually uses his lower body and has a lot more bat speed.
The Snider we saw last year had an all arms swing where he didn’t use his lower body. Much different from the nice power stroke he had before.
I’d like to see some video evidence. I think the “his swing is all out of shape” thing is mostly hearsay
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
but I mean
it could be due to other things – approach, not seeing the ball, etc. I just haven’t yet seen a good argument for “bad swing” other than “bad numbers”
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
yeah
it’s awfully hard for me to tell when a swing looks good or bad unless the guy is hitting or missing the ball, respectively. so I don’t even try
There isn't much video to find on the internet...
…but I did find this from after we was brought back up in July:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRKgaSzum2A
If you watch his lower half it is quite stable when he takes a pitch but when he swings his foot lands before his bat is off his shoulders which means all the weight has shifted before the bat is anywhere near the strike zone. You can also time the frame right at the 0:49 mark and see his back foot beginning to turn and the bat is still not in the zone, this causes a player to “lunge” at the ball and not swing through the ball.
I admit it’s not the perfect example but even in this clip you can see the issues he has with his swing. We saw plenty of better examples during games this year of bad timing with his weight transition and lunging at pitches (and not just off-speed pitches).
okay
can you compare it with his 2010 or 2009 videos? Because I can’t tell if he’s been doing that his entire career or just in 2011
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I really honestly can't tell the difference between what he IS doing and what he SHOULD be doing
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Wow, I'm actually getting lucky with my youtube searches
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b99QvuHBxyc
This is from Spring training 2011. Travis comes to bat at around the 2:30 mark. Besides him having his feet closer together, you can easily see when his foot comes down his bat is off his shoulders and his back foot is pretty much pointing towards the pitcher when his bat is making contact and not before.
Something else I liked about this clip was how little movement he had in his body during his swing making it nice and smooth.
Yeah, I was just about to post this
but the thing is, why did he ditch this stance?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
he was using that stance in April
http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13525675&c_id=mlb
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Nice clip
so he carried it over into the season and I think (this is entirely by memory and as I haven’t found any evidence yet) he didn’t change it until he was sent down to AAA. It could have been something that just changed over time but you would think a hitting coach would pick up on it. I’ll keep looking into when the change occurred.
Yeah, it does seem like his stance changed after April, before he came back up in July
the videos follow that pattern.
But the thing is, he hit much worse in April than he did in July (though there was some luck involved)
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
The angles are all different
Butit appears more often. I know he was working with Mottola, so maybe this is a product of that. I really don’t know a lot about this side of baseball, it’s what I want to learn more about, but I’ve focussed my energies on learning pitching mechanics/scouting first
Yeah, the more open stance looks like it was to help him see the ball better but he timing of everything isn’t there yet. I’m very curious what sort of stance he’ll start this year with.
As for he lackluster April he did have a .157 BABIP so the bad luck really hurt (he still had a 24% line drive rate too) so I would almost just consider a lot of last year’s start just bad luck and maybe a little slump. He was also coming off a rib injury just before spring training (from playing golf) which limited his spring training time so that may have affected his timing a bit.
I know
but it’s impossible to find same angles, though you could just use clips only from Rogers Centre
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I'd be pretty happy with the Bill James projection
but I’m a little less optimistic. not going to bother with games, but
.265/.320/.465 with a homer every 23 PAs
Eric's 2011 in context
In 2011, playing part time and only a half-year in his first big-league season, Eric had an OPS of .769.
In the AL in 2011 there were 42 OF who got at least 300 ABs. Eric’s .769 would place him 17th out of those 42 – ahead of Hunter, Upton, Markakis and just behind Adam Jones’ .785.
okay
but he was 57th in wOBA (which doesn’t overvalue Thames because of his high SLG like OPS does), plays in a corner OF spot which requires good hitting (unlike CF, so it’s a poor comparison) and his defense by UZR was the fourteenth-worst in Major League Baseball (UZR/150).
Thames is a pretty good hitter. if he improves his contact and plate discipline, he might even be a really good hitter. but if he doesn’t improve his defense, he has to turn into a really good hitter to be an above average player
.270/.325/.480
with improved enough defense. Plays most of the games in LF.
Snider get’s traded mid-season (Snider Apolagists heads subsequently explode with internet rage).
I think his BABIP was a little low with his batted ball profile
I don’t think his BABIP should change much
Maybe not
But league average was .255 last year and Thames strikes out way more than league average. Really depends on the BABIP obviously, but I have trouble seeing him hit for much of an average unless he Ks less. And there’s nothing in his record at any level to suggest that, but it’s possible
Doesn't his swing seem like a line drive type of swing
The ball always seems to come off the bat the same way it did in Aaron Hill’s glory days.
by Mike Andrew on Jan 19, 2012 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
his swinging strike rate is pretty high though
I’m not sure if a guy who swings and misses so much can constantly hit line drives like that
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
If you look at SwStr% leaderboards for hitters
most of them aren’t high AVG guys
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Aw no one is projecting anything really crazy for Thames. I guess I get to go crazy. .274/.310/.506 with 27 HR. He, Snider and Encarnacion will split time at LF and DH until, here’s the crazy part, the Jays either a) have enough of Colby Rasmus (due to poor play or poor attitude) or b) trade Colby Rasmus before the trade deadline. This will result in putting Snider in center for the year until September call-ups where Gose will make his appearance. Crazy? Yes. Possible? Weirder things have happened.
Why would they trade Rasmus
Unless you’re predicting they’ll get a haul for him (though the part about poor play or attitude seems to suggest this isn’t your prediction). Just doesn’t make sense
The trade route would be if he was playing well, I could see the Jays trading him to a contender who needs outfield depth late in the season. Sorry if it was a bit confusing. If he plays well I see a trade for a couple good prospects. But if he plays poorly or his attitude becomes a factor and he plays mediocre, I don’t think it would be too crazy for the Jays to cut down on his ABs and see what Snider, Thames and Gose can do at the end of the year.
why would they do that?
Rasmus was about as highly touted as Snider was, both were top 10 prospects. Thames and Gose don’t even come close (and Gose still has tons of work to do in the minors)
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
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