Paul Beeston on Jeff Blair's Show
by Tom Dakers on Jan 19, 2012 2:16 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays News
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PrintPaul Beeston talked to Jeff Blair this morning. Some highlights.
- They don't want to 'fast track' things at the expense of their long term play.
- "It isn't a matter of spending it is a matter of spending wisely."
- "I don't think we should lose our patience."
- Absolutely no tension between the club and Rogers. "They have never turned us down for anything we wanted to do." "They are equally as good (of owners) as Labatts."
- The team is paying a lot for their draft choices. The amatuer draft cost has gone up from $2 or $3 million to $15 million now.
- Everyone would like to 'fast forward' things but not at the expense of doing something that will give us what we want for the long term.
- Can the Jays compete this year? "Yes". "If everything comes together the way we think it can, yeah I do."
So really he didn't tell us anything new, jut that they aren't going to try to sign 5 free agents to try to win it all this year. Asked about Prince Fielder, he said the team wouldn't want to sign him to a 10-year deal. Then asked if he thinks Fielder will get 10 years, he said 'no'. Would you sign him for 5-6 years? Depends on the cost. It was sort of like listening to Alex, he talked for 10 minutes and didn't say anything much.
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what if.... 5 year, $120 million?
$24 mill a year. Albert Pujols-esque.
by BrownMagician on Jan 19, 2012 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
I would do that in a second
but that’s not Albert Pujols-esque, that’s Ryan Howard-esque (and not even that, less AAV without even accounting for inflation)
Would it though?
If no team offers that, what are Fielder and Boras going to do? Sit out the season?
by Defense Counts! on Jan 19, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions
Blair seems convinced that the Jays are doomed without Fielder
Said that the Yankees ate changing tactics and therefore our window was last year and this year. He seems to forget just how much money they have tied to and old core. I’d love Fielder for around five years but its nowhere near sign or die. Building a playoff caliber team and then signing a free agent increases our chance for the championship.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
by Redonred on Jan 19, 2012 2:26 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Choose life!
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 19, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Said that the Yankees ate changing tactics and therefore our window was last year and this year
Did he actually say that?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
http://www.fan590.com/onair/more.jsp?content=20101004_084152_1540
26th minute. It’s pretty sad.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Are people still suprised by Bob Mac Whatever and Jeff Blair?
Both of these guys have been trolls for a long time
See Bob McCowan`s job is to stir up shit and controversy, and ask “tough” questions. I thought Blair was supposed to logically cover the Jays. Now that doesn’t mean he can’t criticize the Jays chances, but how the hell does he think the Yanks are going to be amazing forever with so many seniors sign for so long?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
so many seniors for so much money?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
thought Blair was supposed to logically cover the Jays
Why would you think that?
Blair, who keeps on saying that he “Covered the demise of the Expos, and the Blue Jays’ situation is not even close”, to the point that you start asking yourself if he knows what the word “Situation” means?
Blair, who one may hope is just trying to provoke the fans by expressing idiotic views, but then it might just be that these are his actual views?
Blair, that makes Richard “Expos PR is me” Griffin look like a sage?
That Jeff Blair?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Logic and Blair... hee hee
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 19, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
in hindsight it kinda sorta makes sense
if you somehow foresaw Bautista turning into a monster… but even if you did you’d have to completely change the Jays’ building strategy. the comment really makes no sense
Especially since the Red Sox were/ are built like a tank.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Yea but isn’t the consensus that the Yankees will control their spending due to the new luxury tax? Or are all these big contracts done soon? They already have 126 mil tied up for 2013, though I see that 2014 only have 75 mil.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Yea but isn’t the consensus that the Yankees will control their spending due to the new luxury tax?
I’ll believe it when I see it. Though their payroll was basicall the same in 2011 was 2005.
They’ll spend whatever is consistent with the highest long-term profits, and since a lot of those come from YES and having a ton of viewers, I’d imagine they’d be willing to up it. And eventually, a lot of that bad money will melt off the books. They’ve got good management
McGowan is a great interviewer, he asks the question that the fans want to hear questions to
by na10va on Jan 19, 2012 8:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
fixed
McGCowan is a great interviewer, he asks the question that the fanswant toShould hearquestionsanswers to
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
fixed
McGCowan is a great interviewer…
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 20, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
Meh on Blair
Glad I missed that.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 19, 2012 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
A couple of things
How does he propose to spend 15 mil under the new system?
Obviously, if that’s their cap then sure, but he’s just told us what we already knew, that AA spent money on the draft, with no indication of how they’ll proceed in future drafts.
Also, it’s interesting he compared Labatts to Rogers, when they were in charge Labatts was paying for the highest payroll in the league. Obviously no one expects it to get there now, but why not down the road? Rogers stands to make a ton of money back with every additional dollar spent given they own all the broadcasting rights already, no?
by T_Mizz on Jan 19, 2012 3:00 PM EST via mobile reply actions
when they were in charge Labatts was paying for the highest payroll in the league
Well, in the World Series years, sure. But they built up to that over a decade, and I think that’s a larger point.
Rogers stands to make a ton of money back with every additional dollar spent given they own all the broadcasting rights already, no?
They stand to make more money off broadcasting rights by having more people watch, which means winning more games. That doesn’t mean spending a pile of money will do that. A ton of oney spent poorly won’t help, which is Beeston’s point.
it should also be noted
that highest payroll in the glory years was, IIRC, about $5M higher than second place. these days, the highest payroll is about $80M higher than second place
You totally missed my point, in the middle sentence
Yeah I’ve never been one of those guys who say “Rogers is rich, they need to spend money”. I’m talking about it more in the sense that I’d say that Marisnick could be a great player down the road. That doesn’t mean I think he’ll be a great player next year or the next. He has huge upside, just like Rogers has huge upside to be one of the highest paying ownership groups.
by T_Mizz on Jan 19, 2012 8:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was wondering....
Where my steel wool cloth went. It’s on Beeston’s head!
by Cybertooth Tiger on Jan 19, 2012 3:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Fausto Carmona's name isn't Fausto Carmona lol
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/dominican-police-carmona-using-assumed-name.html
"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"
Hmm
I wonder if the Indians could, if they were interested in doing it, void his contract based on that? They probably wouldn’t because he’d at least eat innings this year, but it’s certainly going to put a damper on his value in later years.
Remember when people around here wanted Carmona?
Maybe that was other Jays’ blogs, but I remember interest in him coming to the Jays.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
As foggy as my memory is today, I could have been one of those people, haha.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I'd imagine they could
But it may b moot since he he needs a visa that sounds like it won’t be easy to get. So if he can’t play, Cleveland doesn’t pay him. As for happens in future years (if he can get a visa for 2013 for example) who knows
That he’s apparently 31, not 28, explains a lot of things about his drop in performance.
Beeston shouldn’t do media. He’s not very good at it.
by Parallex on Jan 19, 2012 3:29 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Is AA not allowed to look at Fielder, and everything he has done so far and decide he isn’t worth 25M + for the next 6 to 10 years? Or is that not even a factor? We want our baseball team to sign Free Agent X because he provides more value then Jays player Y? Money isn’t a concern. Don’t talk to us about money just sign the guy and play him until he becomes Jays Player Y and we replace him with new Free agent X?
Sign a guy who at 27 is 60 to 100lbs over weight to a 10 year deal, or I won’t be happy.
the train arrives in Boston at 2 PM. that’s my guess.
by ABsteve on Jan 19, 2012 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
You're right
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 19, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
engineering notation
only use multiples of 3
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 19, 2012 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry for the terrible and confusing post. I guess I shouldn’t have rushed my partially sarcastic post during work.
I was trying to make the point that it seems to me like some people just want Fielder so bad that they aren’t even looking at whether he is worth 25M+ a year, let alone if he is likely to be a significant improvement on Lind. I also feel like Fielder is going to have an early and steep decline, likely related to health issues from carrying all the extra weight.
I think there are a number of reasons to think that Fielder might not be a good signing, but my main issues with him are contract length, yearly salary, and his size.
by Marc Henderson on Jan 19, 2012 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
3 wins in 2010 and 2 in 2009. I`m not saying the difference is nothing, but I`m not sure we can count on a 5 win improvement on Lind.
by Marc Henderson on Jan 19, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
I’m just not sure how long into his deal Fielder would be worth 3-4 wins more than Lind. I imagine that is a large part of AA’s concern.
by Marc Henderson on Jan 20, 2012 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
What about 2017 and 2018 (6 year deal)? Let alone 2022 if that’s the only deal he wants to sign with Toronto.
A lot of the conversation regarding Fielder is that nothing else matters. If we don’t sign him the Jays have failed this off season.
I think it would be fair if the fanbase was pissed at AA if Fielder signed a 5 year, 100M deal to play for the Orioles. But wouldn’t most fans be happy if we avoided a 10 year 250M deal?
by Marc Henderson on Jan 20, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Well
Maybe not casual fans who just care about big names. But fans who understand the long term implications
Dude
Its not our money, why would we care? Finanical constraints will put a damper on the team’s future?
LOL WHAT?
Just because it isn’t our money doesn’t mean the Jays aren’t limited financially (however that dollar limit is decided). $100M+ donated to Prince for years 6 through 10 would affect the Jays poorly. Welcome to the real world.
by Marc Henderson on Jan 20, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
he was kidding
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 20, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Quick Challenge
Find a flattering picture of Beeston …
/i’ll wait
Maybe
He’ll be played by Brad Pitt in an upcoming movie, “Beestonball.”
by Cybertooth Tiger on Jan 19, 2012 4:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bet you didn't know Paul used to be a model
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 19, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
lol
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
by Frag on Jan 19, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Points for the coldsore
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 19, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
can't fall asleep ...
looking at that picture reminds me of when Homer built Bart the clown bed.
by mike in boston on Jan 19, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Kind of...
Ralph Kleinish.
by Cybertooth Tiger on Jan 19, 2012 5:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
How about this...
…forget about Fielder. Good. Now reflect on Snyder in left, and Thames as D.H.. Rasmus gets a break, Snyder moves to center, Thames is in Left, or right if Bautista needs a break. A platoon, I guess. Lets focus on getting a solid starter with attitude. Matt Garza! Your number is up!
Problem is
Thames, Snider, Rasmus (and LInd) are lefties so you don’t really get the platoon advantage. And if you’re not getting the platoon advantage, and you’re not really in the playoff hunt, you want your young players getting as many PAs as possible, not sitting 2 or 3 times a week
I'm amazed you kids remember Cory Snyder
let alone reflect on his days in LF! He wasn’t with the team all that long.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 19, 2012 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Amen to another starter!!!
The Jays are really 2 starters short of competing in the East. I really hope they sign someone before the season. Then you have 3 decent starters (assuming Morrow can finally be consistent). Then we go into the seaon seeing if any of these young guys can grab the 4 and 5 spot. The 2013 FA market for pitchers is better, which might be more realistic if guys like Drabek, Cecil and McGowan fail to make any progress.
I would love to see a platoon
but in your scenario Encarnacion would presumably be in a strict platoon at first, thus only getting 40 to 50 starts.
by BuffaloSojourn on Jan 20, 2012 10:28 AM EST up reply actions
In the same vein, a couple quotes from Keith Law's chat today I found instructive
Q: As a frustrated Jays fan I ask your opinion, does Alex Anthopolous’s lack of significant movement this offseason lead you to believe he believes in the core group on this team, or is he hamstrung from making significant moves by Rogers Cable?
A: I don’t get the idea that he should have made moves just to make them. The guy is a value wh***[rhymes with more]. If he can make his club better, he will do so. I don’t think he’s seen great value this offseason, except the deal he did make for Santos, which everyone I’ve talked to in the business thought was a steal for Toronto.
Which I happen to be quite happy about. And if that’s not good enough, remember that it could always be worse, we got be the OriLOLes:
Q: O’s signed a 17 year old softball player from Australia yesterday. Yes, softball…..
A: Seriously. This stuff didn’t work ten years ago. Why should we believe it will work now? And, by the way, where is Robinson Checo?
by MjwW on Jan 19, 2012 6:14 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Keith really loves snarking on the Os (although he has a point.)
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 19, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
And John Sickels hates the working class.
What is with bloggers these days?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
A move for the sake of a move = Carl Crawford and John Lackey
Those two didn’t really fit the Boston Red Sox organizational philosophy.
They’ve been limited in a way about how they spent. Cook, Padillia and Silva. Really?
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 19, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
So you're saying Prince Fielder might be John Lackey or Carl Crawford?
…hrm.
by BrownMagician on Jan 19, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
No
My point is the Red Sox didn’t have to sign either, but they did. Both cost the Red Sox their financial flexibility to the point where they had to trade Marco Scutaro in order to sign Roy Oswalt.
The Jays have their “number.” The money they spend today on such a ill advised move will cost them long term.
Imagine if the Jays have to trade Brett Lawrie to keep Prince Fielder. Actually they don’t. The Jays could afford Shawn Green AND Carlos Delgado in part because of Gord Ash’s “move for the sake of a move” moves. They traded Shawn Green.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 22, 2012 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
I'd like to know
if AA is a value wh*** by choice or by necessity. I don’t know if its entirely a good thing to be a “one trick pony” It’s like investing. It’s great to have value in your portfolio but it’s also nice to have a few high price dividend paying blue-chippers mixed in.
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 19, 2012 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If you have “high priced” stocks that are dividend payers, then the dividend yield probably isn’t very good – a high price is relative to value, you can’t seperate the concept. Blue-chippers are often good value precisely because they pay good dividends while usually offering good growth (and dividend growth).
I don’t think rigourously seeking out value makes him aone trick pony at all. He’s found value in the draft. He’s found value internationally. He’s found value in trades. And to a lesser extent, value in free agency (think Alex Gonzalez, John Buck, etc)
I was referring more to a value investing strategy. But nonetheless I’d still be interested to know if he’s become a value wh**** by choice or by necessity. Like was he always a value minded guy or has he had to develop more and more into that. Not saying there’s anything wrong with that of course.
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 19, 2012 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, I understand
But that’s what I’m saying – value investing fundamentally depends on the market price of the asset, you cannot divorce the two. I might love a love company, but if the price is too high, it’s not value. A blue chip dividend stock can be good (fundamental) value, and a junior mining penny stock can be good value. But it’s the same process – evaluate the asset, put a price on it, and then look at the price you can buy it for.
As for whether it’s by choice or necessity, I don;t think the answer is that simple. All GM (and managers generally in business) should always be looking for value, and to build value. For some GMs in baseball, they have more resources at their disposal, so they can afford to be buying more assets, but they’re always trying to build value. For the Jays, right now, they don’t have the same resources to spend, so there’s some necessity to it. But fundamentally, AA (and all GMs) should always be looking for value
you're right
Blue-Chips are generall considered to be growth stock but it doesn’t negate the fact that they still have significant value. The value investor is looking for the stock that’s price is below what they believe to be it’s true price. The line between a value investing strategy and a growth investing strategy is blurry at best and in some circles people see little difference in the two. Like you said in the end the purchasing decision will be made if the price you’re willing to pay matches the price at which it’s being sold.
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 19, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I find the growth/value distinction unhelpful, because as you say, tradionally value has meant buying low P/E stock, or low P/B, or stocks that have taken a plunge – generally slow or negative growers. But for me, value is buying an asset at a price at less than what you think it’s worth, plain and simple. I guess that’s more a GARP approach, but whatever.
Growth at a Reasonable Price
combination of Value and Growth style investing
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 19, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
I guess for the Jays it would be AARP though
aquisitions at a reasonable price
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 19, 2012 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
that's going to have to go
on the front page with the rest of our acronyms
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 19, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
Seriously doubt they don't have the same resources to spend
More like they are seeing how all these potential good players pan out before they actually start signing a FA or two.
It is too early to say if he found value or not.
Case in point Roy Halladay trade. In 4 or 5 years we will know if he found value with Drabek, Gose and D’ Arnaud. All depends on how they perfom at the MLB level.
Halladay trade is inconclusive
But the Wells trade is a clear win
The Escobar trade is a win
The Hill/JMac trade was a win (potentially getting pick for Kelly Johnson, not to mention getting him for 2012 on a one-year deal)
Morrow for League is a win
Wallace for Gose looks like a win, though it’s a bit early to call that one
The track record is plenty long to say he’s found value
Agree on some but not all
I will give you the first two. Johnson gave us a decent glove and not much more. Morrow has been wildly inconsistent so there is no way that is a win yet, but I am pretty optomistic about 2012 and I expect 15 plus wins for Morrow. Until that happens it is not a win/ I love Gose’s speed and the fact he is so young, time will tell if his bat comes around. He will be a big leagues based on his defence and speed. Could be a 4th fielder, brought in as a late inning replacement in a worst case scenario. Best case scenario he is a perennial all star
Disagree wholeheartedly on Johnson and Morrow
I’m not sure how you are determining the value of these trades (gut feeling?), but I can not figure out any way to look at the Morrow / Johnson trades in a negative light.
Even if Morrow never realizes his full potential as a starting pitcher, and if he actually is “wildly inconsistent”, he is at worst a league average starter which is much more valuable then a good reliever. On top of that, he has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter.
For Johnson, even in a down year for him he performed significantly better than Hill, by essentially every offensive statistic in baseball. The trade put the Jays in the position where they could offer Johnson, the much better player to Hill, an offer of arbitration and either get him on a good contract for 1 year, or obtain 2 draft picks in this years draft if he signed somewhere else. We would have received nothing for Hill, declined his options (at a cost to the team), and not offered arbitration (because he would definitely have accepted).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 20, 2012 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
So Rivera will never have the same value as a SP LOL!!!
Jays had a set of horrible closers that cost them at least 5 or 6 games. League had close to 40 saves. One of the reason the Yankees have been so dominant is they have the best closer in the game and probably in the last 30 years. When he retires the Yankees will win t least 4 or 5 fewer games. So none of your arguements ill convince me that a .500 SP in a win over a dependable closer.
Johnson outperformed Hill hmmm. Hill had a much better BA, drove in more runs, rbis, higher slogging percentage, higher OPS, more doubles, fewer k’s then Johnson, more Sb,s moreno hits and is a couple of seasons away from a 38 HR season. Dont know how you could call it a win after that.
oh my
First of all, pitcher wins? RBI? These are team stats. Pitchers on good teams win more games than pitchers on bad teams, irregardless of the pitchers skill (see Hernandez, Felix, Cy Young award winner with a record of 13-12). Same goes for RBIs – it is more affected by having base runners in front of a player than the player at bat.
Are you trying to imply that Rivera = League? Because that is the only reason why you would bring Rivera and your Yankee rant into this conversation. How is League a dependable closer? He has had one very good year as a closer, and another meh season since the trade, while Morrow has been a decent starting pitcher.
I do not understand your argument for Hill. I will concede that Hill had a better BA, more RBIs, and more SBs than Johnson last year, but every other stat is on Johnson’s favor, and BA/RBIs really aren’t worth a lick when comparing players. Your statement that Hill had a better OPS and SLG is just wrong. Finally, 2 years away from 38HR? So? Johnson is 1 year away from being one of the top 2B in the league, performing on-par with or significantly better in all relevant offensive stats than Hill’s big season other than HR.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 20, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
sorry, pet peeve
“irregardless” is not a word – just regular “regardless” is what you mean.
but I agree with everything you said, and as such, here’s a rec
See, again, you change the argument when you don't like the facts
You take this"
a league average starter which is much more valuable then a good reliever
And turn it into:
So Rivera will never have the same value as a SP LOL!!!Which is just a completely inaccurate, and I would say, fundamentally dishonest, characterization. Rivera is the best closer of his generation, probably in history. I don’t agree that he has quite the impact you claim, but the point is, he’s not merely a good reliever, and the point of comparison isn’t just any old starter.
And then with regards to Hill, you conveniently ignore the big picture. Even if Hill outperformed Johnson for a month (and he sure as heck didn’t for the 5 months before), the point is, the Jays have an asset now, whn the last month didn;t matter for them. If they hadn’t of made the trade, they wouldn’t have the asset (or assets of lesser value if they had resigned them at market value)
Irregardless!
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 20, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
That's irregardless.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 20, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
Two follow-up points
1) So then, you must acknowledge the larger point – that AA has indeed built value, even if you don’t agree on the magnitude.
Also, I forgot about acquiring Miguel Olivo to essentially buy a draft pick for $500K. Now, it’s possible nothing comes of it, but it has positive expected value, which basically means he bought a very inpensive lottery ticket
2) When assessing trades, you can’t just look at performance to date, you have to look at asset value.
We got 4 years of Morrow for 3 years of League (and the additional year was a league minimum year which is the most valuable). At worst, he’s been a league average starter, which is more valuable than the good but not great reliever League has been.
In terms of Johnson, forget the performance over the last month, it doesn;t matter. Hill’s options were going to be declined, making him a free agent, and JMac was going to be a FA too. We got KJ, who was also a FA-to be, but one who we could potentially get picks for, which wasn’t going to happen with Hill (offering arb would have meant almost certain acceptance). In lieu of that, we got the top FA on the market on a one-year deal at adecent price, which is pretty good. So basically, rather than nothing, the Jays have something with positive value. Which is a win.
I like AA
I think he has set a good foundation and the team SHOULD get better. I just think it is far too early to crown AA as the league’s best GM and the lovefest by some of the posters on this board is a bit much at times. To me the biggest and most important stat is wins and losses. Until we compete better against the AL east and have winning records against those teams, I could care-a-less about WAR or how he builds value etc.
As much as I hate Riccairdi, he did have some bad luck. It takes good drafting, the ability to sign FA’s on the upswing and some luck.
I really like what AA has done and I think the money they have put into scouting and signing draft picks will pay off.
It is just way too early to declare wins in trades or how AA has performed. In 2017 if we have qualified for the playoffs 2 or 3 times, the Jays have an attendance of close to 40 000 on a daily basis, and we are not one of the cheapest organizations, then you can declare wins etc.
Okay
But that’s false argument – I never said AA was the league’s best GM. I said, he had succeeded in building value. You disagreed:
It is too early to say if he found value or not.
Now, having been presetned with a litany of supporting evidence, you say:
I could care-a-less about WAR or how he builds value etc.That’s completely different. If you had said this indtead of the first statement, I wouldn;t have bothered responsing, because it’s just a fundamentally different viewpoint and there’s no way anything is going to change your mind.
It is just way too early to declare wins in trades
This is just false. The Vernon Wells deal is clear win, eve one year out. You’ve acknowledged that much, so what you just said is by your own definition ot true.
In 2017 if we have qualified for the playoffs 2 or 3 times…and we are not one of the cheapest organizations, then you can declare wins etc.
That’s also just completely incorrect. I’m assessing individual transactions, not the overall strategic performance of the GM. By that definition, the Yankees have for 15 years made all good moves, because they’ve always won (and it has nothing to just with just being able to get more talent on the free agent market)
I really think many of your arguements are very weak
Mostly because you cannot evaluate trades etc, based on a month or even 1 season. How can you evaluate a trade when you are looking at such short time spans?? Are you seriously saying that the Morrow/League trade is already a win. Say what you want if the Jays dont make the playoffs by 2017 then AA is on par with Riccairdi. Other then Wells and Escobar you cannot say the Jays won a trade etc. I think the weakest point of your arguement is johnson/Hill. What was it like 2 months before the end of the season, when the deal was made and you are already declaring a winner???? I like AA alot, but I really think many of you see with rose-colored glasses, when you really need 2-3 more seaons before he can be evaluated properly.
by mugisha2009 on Jan 21, 2012 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
You are missing the point
The reason that the Hill/Johnson trade is a win is that both of the players AA traded would have been free agents at season’s end. So if you don’t make the trade, you get to keep them for 1 month, which meant nothing considering where the Jays were in the standings and then you have nothing left after that as they’re free agents and can sign anywhere. Instead, the Jays have Kelly Johnson on a one-year deal (because no one wanted to give up a draft pick to sign him), which means we have the best free agent second baseman on a one year contract – which is good, since multi-year contracts are riskier. So the comparison is, Kelly Johnson compared to nothing. Unless you think Kelly Johnson sucks so badly he has negative value, it is by definition a win, because something is better than having nothing!
The Morrow/League trade is not a definitive win at this point, but the Jays have come out ahead so far, and given that League will be a free agent in one year, and the Jays have Morrow for two more years of control, they are more likely to get more value going forward as well.
We have different points
2012 and 2013 will tell if the jays were smart for getting rid of Hill and replacing him with Johnson. Production on the field is what determines if a team has won or lost. I basically agree with you, because I think Johnson will hit 20/
plus HR’s and his numbers willl be close to Hills. However, one player can easily outperform 2,3 or even 5 for that matter. Hinske based on one good season, was once considered a steal. Got to look at an entire body of works. My point is don’t judge too soon. Toronto fan went wild over G. Chacin, even named a cologne after him lol. Don’t think anyone would do that now. Just not with the Jays, but all MLB teams have many player’s like that. To draw on a music analogy, MLB teams have more one-hit wonders then superstars.
you're completely and utterly missing MjwW's point
so much so that I’m getting convinced that you’re not even trying
you're assuming we re-sign Hill as a free agent
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 21, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
because that’s what I said
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 20, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
My mistake, should have read it instead of skimming it
But I feel like you’re inferring he hasn’t locked up a “high price” chip when he has – Bautista. It was a relatively substantial risk at the time and, what do you know, it turned out to be great value! At least last year.
Sorry for the snarky first though.
That's a doozy
You’d think he was saving the free world
Also, pretty awesome catching stance on the first HR
The best part is that whole clip is only one home run.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
By the trade deadline
They will have Votto in hand by then,its as good as done if he is at 100%
the reds are making there push for next season
as there off-season moves would suggest, i hope you didn’t place any money on that hunch.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 22, 2012 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
that he will be on our team
they will keep him to compete, not sell him off.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 22, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
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