Make Your Predictions: Brandon Morrow
by Tom Dakers on Jan 23, 2012 1:05 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintBrandon Morrow had a pretty up and down 2011, he struck out 10.19/9 and only gave up 3.46 walks/9 but still had an ERA of of 4.72, but his FIP, at 3.64 and xFIP, at 3.53, were much better than his ERA. He did a lot of things right, brought down his walk rate and gave up fewer hits/9. Unfortunately he also gave up more home runs. Perhaps he was throwing too many pitches right down the middle of the plate.
We took a close look at his 2011 season back here.
| Year | Age | Tm | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | WP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 25 | TOR | 10 | 7 | 4.49 | 26 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 146.1 | 136 | 76 | 73 | 11 | 66 | 0 | 178 | 9 | 8 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 10.9 | 2.70 |
| 2011 | 26 | TOR | 11 | 11 | 4.72 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 179.1 | 162 | 103 | 94 | 21 | 69 | 1 | 203 | 12 | 12 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 3.5 | 10.2 | 2.94 |
| TOR (2 yrs) | 21 | 18 | 4.62 | 56 | 56 | 1 | 1 | 325.2 | 298 | 179 | 167 | 32 | 135 | 1 | 381 | 21 | 20 | 8.2 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 10.5 | 2.82 | ||
Bill James figures him to go 11-10, with a 3.68, 191.0 innings in 30 starts, 79 BB and 209 strikeouts.
I'd like to see him get to 200 innings, let's guess an ERA of 4.00 with 32 starts, 3.60 BB/9 and 10.0/k. Your turn.
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Well
185 IP
ERA: 4.10
28 Starts
12-9
10.3 K/9.
Pretty much more of the same.
"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"
13-8
3.83 ERA
190 IP
222 K
76 BB
29 starts
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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If he uses the cutter he learned and keeps the fierce attitude he developed in his last four stars
14-10
ERA 3.25
10.8K/9IP
3.10BB/9IP
1.15 WHIP
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 23, 2012 1:14 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Hope for a big breakout, but conservative base case
28 starts
180 IP
200 K (10.1 K/9)
74 BB (3.7 BB/9)
20 HR (1HR/9)
~3.50 FIP, 4.00-4.25 ERA
yeah, I figure about the same
But maybe I’ll be a little more optimistic and say around 3.85 ERA (and 190 IP mostly as a result)
by benk on Jan 23, 2012 1:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Nice Fantasy Option There
With a 10.1 K/9 that makes him a great fantasy option in AL 5×5 leagues. His ERA isn’t pretty, though. Really would like to see him with a sub 3.50 ERA, but just don’t see this happening. Seems he’ll always be projected as a frontline, but will pitch as a 3-4.
Nope...
I believe in setting my expectations low with BM. That way it’s just whipped cream on a cherry sundae if he out performs my expectations. I’m fragile when I’m disapointed.
15-4 – 3.66 ERA – 211k – 60BB – 31 Starts – 222 IP
by Marc Henderson on Jan 23, 2012 1:49 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I still watch the Tampa Bay one hitter every once in a while.
Might be my favorite Jays game of all time. I really, really hope everything comes together for Morrow, he could be so insanely good. I love the question marks this off-season, I’m really excited about this team.
Morrow is two different pitchers...
With no one on base he’s Roy H. with men on base he’s my wife’s mothers sister…ugh.
Seriously, my recollection of him from last year is that he was truly awful the second anyone got on base.
except it was mostly sequencing and BABIP, IIRC
his K and BB rates (and I believe GB rate too) didn’t really fluctuate with men on and bases empty. meaning it’s probably some function of “luck”
mine
28 GS
172IP
12-10
4.10 ERA
175 K (9.15 K/9)
3.7 BB/9 (70BB)
50% GB
50% GB
If he’s putting up those K and BB numbers with a 50% GB rate (that’s an elite GB rate), he’s a Cy Young favourite and his ERA will probably be closer to 3
How many DPs does he induce? My guess... greater than 1
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 23, 2012 3:17 PM EST reply actions
32 GS
15-10
195 IP
230 Ks
60 BB
WHIP 1.28
3.85 ERA
… praying for more consistency and some lower pitch counts for BM. One of my favourite Jays…
"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu
More wins
If his ERA is around 4.00 with 200IP he should be able to win 16 games with this offense.
I say 3.90 ERA/ 205IP with a record of 16-9.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 23, 2012 3:40 PM EST via Android app reply actions
3.31 ERA
185 IP
10.0 K/9
3.6 BB/9
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 23, 2012 4:12 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Not necessarily
Morrow isn’t a very efficient pitcher. I think Pikachus just betting on ERA ~ FIP/xFIP/SIERA, and maybe a little mroe improvment. Even if Morrow’s results come in line, I don’t think he’ll add that many innings.
just kidding
but I’m really not sure. He uses a lot of pitches per at-bats, and I think that might hinder him from high IP counts. The problem with that is Verlander had the highest P/PA in 2011, which kinda contradicts my point
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
3.20 ERA
190 IP
10.5 K/9
3.5 BB/9
1.1 HR/9
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
Or, a less optimistic prediction
3.65 ERA
185 IP
10.0 K/9
3.75 BB/9
1.15 HR/9
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
I am officially announcing my belief in Morrow
220 IP, 2.99 ERA, 22-4 record.
Prove me wrong, Brandon.
by mmss on Jan 23, 2012 6:16 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Woo! The ninja strikes again
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 23, 2012 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
weeee
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 23, 2012 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
Breakout year!
200+ K
200+ IP
<4 ERA
>15 wins
>2 Double Plays behind him
And besides, baseball is unpredictable, That's why it's fun! - Yukko Aioi
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