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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Blue Jays Sign Francisco Cordero

The Blue Jays have signed reliever Francisco Cordero to a 1-year, $4.5 million contract.

We have a loaded bullpen now. We've added Cordero, Jason Frasor, Sergio Santos and Darren Oliver to the pen. Casey Janssen, Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villanueva are hold overs. If we are going with a 7 man pen that doesn't leave room for lefty Luis Perez or Joel Carreno.

I'm not 100% sold on Cordero. He was great last year, he had a 2.45 ERA but his FIP was 4.02 and xFIP was 4.14. His strikeout rate dropped to 5.43/9 from 7.31 the year before, but he did have a 50% ground ball rate. I don't think his .214 BABIP will keep happening.

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Nice

Thats a nice bullpen AA has built this offseason

by gbam on Jan 24, 2012 4:43 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

I like the (apparent) strategy

If these guys don’t get us into the playoffs, flip them at the deadline like last year.

"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu

by kdlishus on Jan 24, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

let the parade of again relievers continue

but not a bad deal really, me thinks Jays will have good bullpen next year, perhaps not blow so many leads

by daman316 on Jan 24, 2012 4:45 PM EST reply actions  

AA probably

Wants to flip Cordero/Frasor mid-season for something of value.

Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter

by Woodman663 on Jan 24, 2012 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

Can lottery picks be traded?

If so, I’d imagine AA’d be all over it.

Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter

by Woodman663 on Jan 24, 2012 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep and the beauty is that AA can set the market

He’ll find some GM who’ll give them away for cheap and that’ll be the precedent

by T_Mizz on Jan 24, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

New record

biggest free agent acquisition of AA’s tenure

by 7-9nomore on Jan 24, 2012 4:47 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

So I guess it works out to

CL – Santos
RHP Set-up – Cordero
LHP Set-up – Oliver
RHP – Frasor
RHP – Janssen
RHP – Litsch
RHP – Villaneuva

No room for a LOOGY I guess. I kinda don’t like this in our division.

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

Janssen is almost a LOOGY

by Marc Henderson on Jan 24, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Huh?

LOOGY = Lefty, One Out Guy
Janssen has good numbers against lefties, but he’s not a one out only guy (due to poor splits against opposite handed batters)

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Why do you need a LOOGY?

The bullpen has several pitchers (Janssen and Oliver at least) who are more effective against LHB but can also face right handers if you need them to.

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

True

Oliver is a lefty. It’s just that in the AL East, there’s a lot of lefties, so it would be nice to have a situational lefty as need. In the end, the better pen overall is the better option

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

There's no reason you can't use Oliver/Janssen as a situational lefty if the game calls for one

You just have the added benefit of also being able to use them for a whole inning if you want to do that instead

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

True

It would just be nice to have that true LOOGY. Just like how Rrzepczynski made Prince his bitch in the playoffs for STL

by gbam on Jan 24, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

perez wasn't exactly a loogy either

his splits weren’t that much in favor against lefties that he would be qualified as a “loogy”

also, i dont think oliver will be the “setup man” i think he is the big lefty guy if we have an inning vs a big lefty or a bunch of lefties he can go in and mop up, especially in important situations

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Ugh

His splits in 2011 were:
.206/.332/.375 (LHB)
.305/.388/.519 (RHB)
That’s pretty significant

By lefty set-up man, that’s what I meant for Oliver

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah im just saying

i dont think he’ll be our setup man, more used in important situations. and i was saying perez isnt a loogy

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Those are Perez's splits

And those are most definitely splits indicative of a LOOGY…~700OPS against LHB, ~900OPS against RHB

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

oh snap

i thought i read elsewhere his #‘s weren’t that good. my mistake.

I would rather have him over Litsch for a year based on what somebody is saying with Litsch still have options. I def. dont want to lose him cause hes out of options so giving him another run this year would work

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

But

I think what he’s saying is that Perez wasn’t a one out guy, he always pitched a few batters/innings. But you’re right those are great splits vs Lefties

by gbam on Jan 24, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, he wasn't used that way

He did some spot starting, long relief. Not optimal for his skill set. The point is, his splits are indicative of someone who could be a good LOOGY

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Litsch is in AAA or him/someone else is traded

Perez has no options, and in 2011 he was absolutely dominant vs LHB. I’m not totally sure he’s ready for a full-time lefty specialist role, but Perez isn’t going to make it through waivers

by benk on Jan 24, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

from a performance perspective

I don’t like either the Frasor trade or the Cordero deal.

I don’t like Frasor over Carreno, nor do I like Cordero over Perez (assuming Perez would be used wisely, mostly against lefties).

Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter

by Woodman663 on Jan 24, 2012 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't mind either, persay

I think it’s okay to have Carreno start in AAA – he’s never really failed as a starter, so why not give him the opportunity, maybe he build more value that way (at the time fo the Rzep trade, the Cards thought of him as a guy who could start, which made him more attractive. Carreno could be similar).

As for Perez, I would like a LOOGY. On the other hand, Cordero is pretty good and I think it gives AA a chance to deal from strength again next year, and be opportunistic. That has quite a bit of value in and of itself

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

per se*

you of all people should know that

by benk on Jan 24, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't speak Latin!

But duly noted. I never actually thought about the etymology of that word

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I knew that persay was wrong

But I didn’t immediately know what it should be. Now I do. thanks

by siggian on Jan 24, 2012 10:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Given Farrrell’s use of the bullpen last year I don’t think it’s safe to say Perez would have been used just against lefties. Like it or not, Farrell seems to prefer to give relievers an inning to work with most times, even when using pitchers like Perez and Dotel with big splits.

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Farrell's bullpen use

Was much better from about late May onwards, in terms of using guys well in platoon situations. His use of Dotel in particular was terrible before that

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

i like frasor over carreno

because its for 1 year. giving the kid more seasoning in the minors, giving him another chance to prove himself as a starter. before he is stuck as a BP guy the rest of his life, 1 year right now is not a bad exchange where he’s still quite young.

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the Jays are going to let Carreno really flame out of starting

before they try him full-time in the ‘pen. I’m not too broken up about that

by benk on Jan 24, 2012 6:16 PM EST up reply actions  

refresh my memory

who did we lose

+1 is only good if you actually rec the post

by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 24, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

What do you mean by lose?

Camp won’t be back from last year’s pen. Francisco, Rauch not back. Rzep traded.

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

i mean we already thought we had the bullpen setup

what person does he bump, i can’t think of it !

+1 is only good if you actually rec the post

by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 24, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

PEREZ!

+1 is only good if you actually rec the post

by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 24, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh

Well, if the last guy would have been a lefty, Perez. If a righty, probably Carreno, or that spot was atoss up

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Perez, Carreno

Maybe Laffey; thought I don’t he was going to make the squad, Wilner added him in his write up last night.

by Rhinos on Jan 24, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm curious

what this would mean for the projected bullpen. Santos, Oliver, Frasor, Cordero, Janssen are all guaranteed spots. So that’s already five. Then I have to assume they want another lefty, so let’s say it’s Perez for the sake of argument. Now if they go with a 7-man bullpen, that would mean one of Villanueva and Litsch is not making the team, unless they think Litsch is gonna be a starter this year. Is it possible that they’’re gonna go with an 8-man pen and a short bench? Of course that would have made more sense before we signed Valbuena, Vizquel and Francisco…

It would seem that the most likely scenario is that they go with only one lefty in the pen, which I’m not a fan of…

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 4:49 PM EST reply actions  

I agree on one lefty being likely scenario

A short bench would mean one OF, one IF, and one C. That means only one of Ben Francisco and Rajai Davis. I don’t see us cutting Davis (though maybe he gets traded?) and if there’s no place for Francisco, why acquire him?

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Good questions. I can understand it from this perspective either.

I hope Litch and Villanueva are in the pen this year. They were both good there.

Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"

by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Jan 24, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Santos would close

I assume Cordero would be a set up man like Francisco was in Texas.

He’ll probably do a decent job, although I’m really wondering how his velocity is going to hold up.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Jan 24, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Does this not add precious depth?

by Sluggo219 on Jan 24, 2012 4:57 PM EST reply actions  

Also worth mentioning...

…that the K rate drop coincided with a massive BB rate drop.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 24, 2012 4:57 PM EST reply actions  

Before Trade Deadline...

Other MLB GM: “Hello Alex, I really need a reliever what do you have?”

Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"

by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Jan 24, 2012 4:58 PM EST reply actions  

AA:

“Hahahaha. Gotchya!! May you grovel at my feet”

Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"

by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Jan 24, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions  

A proven commodity can become a very valuable asset at the trade deadline to a needy team that has injury problems.

by Sluggo219 on Jan 24, 2012 5:00 PM EST reply actions  

I kind of regret this based on Cordero's BABIP and declining K rate.

Oh well.

Welcome to Toronto, Franky C

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 24, 2012 5:01 PM EST reply actions  

I wonder what the odds are that Litsch/Villanueva get moved before opening day

Other teams looking to shore up their bullpen/rotation might give them a look, and either one would be easily replaced in the Jays bullpen.

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 5:02 PM EST reply actions  

It's possible

But I don’t see anyone giving up much, so I imagine the Jays keep them

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I doubt they'd net a whole lot in return either

But their value is pretty low to the team. Losing them makes little difference when there’s not much step down to the next option (Perez/Carreno), so even a C prospect might be worth it.

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

idk that charlie V's bullpen #'s as a long reliever can be easily replaced

he hurt his #‘s while starting, but his long relief #’s were top notch, not easily replaceable at all

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

carlos lol

god, how could i confuse him with the craptors. how embarrassing

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

heh

I actually call him Charlie V as a nickname, so you didn’t have to correct yourself

by benk on Jan 24, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

His numbers were excellent in long relief

But he’s also unlikely to replicate them….have to figure quite a bit of regression towards the mean

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Good move? Rotoworld’s not sure. They say (here) “The 36-year-old right-hander posted a 2.45 ERA and 37 saves as the Reds’ closer last season, but his fastball velocity and strikeout rate were both on the decline. The American League East might not be the best place for his decline phase.”

by DavidLondon on Jan 24, 2012 5:04 PM EST reply actions  

Wilner makes an interesting point
Wilnerness590 Mike Wilner
#Bluejays bullpen now Santos, Cordero, Oliver, Frasor, Janssen, Litsch, Villanueva. But Luis Perez is out of options, Litsch isn’t. #jays

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:04 PM EST reply actions  

Yea just saw that

Out of options…that might make Litsch the unlucky one to get booted. But I can’t see him taking well to a AAA demotion

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

hes taken every other demotion surprisingly well. maybe 1 more

give him the old “but youll be able to compete for a starting job”.

reality, hes the first callup if somebody in the BP gets hurt, and may not even be the first if a SP gets hurt

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I think he’s done as a starter…that boat has sailed, too many guys ahead of him. But you’re right, there will be injuries, and depth is good

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

He's a great depth guy for relief

But I agree, I don’t see him starting anymore. In the case of injury, there are at least 3 guys ahead of him in the pecking order.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Jan 24, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

3 guys>?

who… drabek or whoever elses misses the team. i wouldnt put anybody else ahead of him to start the year. maybe by mid season when the youngsters are pushing to get in, but not until then

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Laffey, probably Villanueva too

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I dont see why Villanueva

He did much worse as a starter than as a reliever. He may give us a few good starts but why not turn to either a younger guy who would benefit from the starts

by STZ513 on Jan 24, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

More if you just needed a couple starts

Ad if it’s later in the year, it would likel be Hutchison or McGuire

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

maybe laffey? or whichever of mcgowan and drabek that doesn’t make it. i guess mills is gone so not him anymore. What ever happened to Richmond? Is he still hanging around down in the minor leagues?

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

Off the 40 man though. Not really an option

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

mcgowan makes it or is cut... so hes not an option. so that only puts drabek ahead of him & im not so sure laffey is much better

would really be a competition at AAA between the 3 to see who gets it, obvious advantage going to drabek cause of the youth

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

accardo

is one example of when depth isn’t good. it’s good to have guys that you can call up, but when they’re established major league players, they don’t want to spend their year in the minors.

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

And so he left

Went to Baltimore, and they ended up sending him to the minors. Big deal. Earn your spot, capitalize on opportunities as they come up, but don’t complain when you get sent down cause there’s more guys better than you

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

right

well that’s sorta what I meant. That it became very distracting with all of his complaining and anger. Ideally, you want to avoid that. Although it’s always hard to know how different people will react.

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't recall it being a big distraction

And anyway, Vegas is a long way away. So if he’s not happy to have a job in baseball, get paid well, screw him.

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Someone said something similar in another thread a while back

That teams didn’t really like to expose their top prospects to AAA because of the bitter older players making for a worse environment. I AM NOT saying I agree or disagree with it, but apparently it’s a concern that exists.

by T_Mizz on Jan 24, 2012 5:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Accardo isn't the best example either

He wasn’t the same after that breakout ‘07 season. He had some injury troubles and never was quite the same pitcher. He may have thought he was, but nothing he’s done in the Majors since has shown it.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 25, 2012 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

still

the first half of the season, hes likely the #2 option behind drabek or cecil

and if drabek is in the minors struggling worse then litsch, i bet litsch gets called up ahead of him also.

by midseason i see some youngster hutchison mcguire or somebody else pushing to get into the rotation

by TheMainEvent on Jan 24, 2012 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

His relief numbers were good

.204/.272/.408 triple slash allowed

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah he looked decent in relief

He didn’t have a whole lot of appearances though, I’d be surprised if he could replicate that over a whole season.

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I dunno, I'm reasonably optimistic

Career, his he has an OPS against of ~700 against RHB and ~800 against LHB, so if you keep him away from lefties, he’s pretty good. His 2011 relief numbers are close to in-line with career RHB numbers, so I think he can replicate them, when you also consider he can go all out for the appearance wihich you can’t do as a starter

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

in 2011

over a K per inning in relief and IIRC 3.3 BB/9, with solid GB numbers. if that’s not indicative of a good reliever I don’t really know what is

by benk on Jan 24, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions  

How sad would we be if Perez was thrown on waivers?

Really? Surely someone claims him and a deal is possible

by Steve02 on Jan 24, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions  

40 man

Someone has to come off, no?

by Steve02 on Jan 24, 2012 5:14 PM EST reply actions  

Yep

Usually candidates…Mastroianni, Farina, Magnuson, Farquhar

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow

Big news. I take my focus off of baseball to do this thing called “work” for a couple hours and look what happens. Jays land Cordero and the Tigers sign Fielder. Pretty huge day for baseball fans.

I am excited to watch our bullpen in action. We have some lively arms with the additions AA has made this offseason… Hopefully we won’t need our relievers too often because our Starters are going to be lights-out! My fingers remain crossed but at least now when we need to call in a reliever we can rest confidently in their ability to end the inning with limited or no damage…

by TrueBlue4Ever! on Jan 24, 2012 5:17 PM EST reply actions  

yeesh

his peripherals are worse than I thought they were

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 5:18 PM EST reply actions  

good thing

peripherals aren’t all that matter. ask brandon morrow about his “wildly successful” 2011 campaign.

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

but in all seriousness

Morrow is a perfect example of why peripheral stats are nice predictors of success but when it comes down to it, they don’t always correlate with success.

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions  

you're also looking at a pretty small sample size

going forward 10 years, I wouldn’t be surprised if Morrow outperforms Romero. In fact, I’d expect him to.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions  

There are always exceptions to "peripherals"

But I truly don’t believe Morrow is one of them. Hes only been a starter a couple seasons and put up solid FIP and such in both seasons.

His LOB% is also messed (he should strand more runners, hes getting unlucky), his GB% is below his career, and his innings nearly tripled since 2009.

I think Morrow should have a good season, could break out.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 25, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Wouldn’t you rather a guy with terrible peripherals who isn’t giving up runs to one with great peripherals who is?

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Really?

I’m not talking about that they did those things last year, so maybe it will flip this year. I’m saying if I knew right now that the guy with the great peripherals still was going to give up a ton of runs this year, it would make absolutely no sense to want him on my team for this year. The only reason to like the peripherals is because you hope that this is the year his real stats will wander closer to his peripheral stats. Because without that, then they don’t accomplish anything.

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

if I knew right now that the guy with the great peripherals still was going to give up a ton of runs this year

how do you know this again?

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't

I’m asking hypothetically. Would you rather have had Morrow’s numbers last year or Cordero’s (if they were both relievers)? Not for next year. For the season that just happened.

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

That does nothing for me though

you’re looking for future production

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok

I understand this. And I’m not trying to argue who I’d rather have going forward. We’re arguing different questions here so let’s just call it a night

by asalamon on Jan 24, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Uh oh

Them’s fighting words

by Aidin on Jan 24, 2012 5:24 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

His career peripherals

are worse than his actual ERA. So, maybe he’s one of those type of pitchers that outperforms his peripherals?

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Jan 24, 2012 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

not by this much

his career E-F is about -0.33. He should be posting ERA in the high 3s.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions  

and I'd bet his 2011 has a lot to do with that number as well

his E-F from 1999 to 2010 was -0.21. Big jump after 2011

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Nonetheless

It’s only a one year deal.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Jan 24, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

If he outperforms his peripherals this season

He could be good trade bait

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Jan 24, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions  

sure

just saying, it’s not very likely that he does.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions  

let's clear this up

It actually is likely that he over-performs his peripherals, I should have made that clear. However, the degree to which he does is probably by only about 0.2~0.3, and his peripherals recently have been getting worse and worse. If he is similar peripheral numbers in 2012 as he did in 2011, he’ll probably be a 3.7~3.8 ERA reliever.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

GET ALL THE RELIEVERS

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Jan 24, 2012 5:52 PM EST reply actions   2 recs

We tried that last year....

it failed.

I blog, therefore I am.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 24, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

there is that, true...

I was thinking more of the bullpen itself failing, but we did turn the excess into an interesting player

I blog, therefore I am.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 24, 2012 6:14 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I’m more describing the majority of AA’s offseason so far.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Jan 24, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Boo.

I was fine with the Bullpen the way it was (and I wouldn’t have shed a tear had we used Carreno in lieu of trading for (and paying for) Frasor. Is there nothing better that the money and assets could or would brought in?

by Parallex on Jan 24, 2012 5:56 PM EST reply actions  

If nothing better was brought in

I think its safe to assume there was not. Could we have upgraded at 1B/SP for that price?

by Aidin on Jan 24, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Makes sense though. With the FA starters market as thin and overpriced as it is, the best way to maximize a young rotation is a deep bullpen and a defensive oriented bench. Mathis, Vizqual suddenly make a little more sense.

by dexfarkin on Jan 24, 2012 6:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Just waiting for Pikachu to jump on the “Mathis makes a little more sense” part of that

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The Jays front office said they acquired Mathis for his defensive abilities. So regardless of whether or not you agree with their assessment, if we’re trying to make sense of AA’s strategy in the off season, we should judge their moves through their perspective.

by dexfarkin on Jan 24, 2012 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

so if Anthopoulos said he re-signed Encarnacion for his defensive abilities, I should assume that to make sense as well?

There’s legitimate reason to believe that Mathis’ defense really isn’t all that great.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I’m not sure what you think you’re saying here with your rather silly example. Should we try to determine what the front office’s strategy and thinking behind acquiring players is by what they think the player is, or what you think the player is?

Because trying to make sense of their acquisitions like Mathis based on what you think about the player comes down to ‘the front office doesn’t understand stats or baseball’ or ‘the whole baseball thing is a lie and AA is assembling a team that is really designed to help him secretly rob the vault of Nazi gold hidden below the visitors dug-out in the ’dome.’ Which may be true, but if I’m trying to figure out the strategy going into the season that they’re using to target and retain talent, ‘they just make dumb moves’ doesn’t really inform me of that much.

by dexfarkin on Jan 24, 2012 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Should we try to determine what the front office’s strategy and thinking behind acquiring players is by what they think the player is, or what you think the player is?

You’re making it sound like I’m the only one who thinks Mathis isn’t a good defender.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Except my comment has nothing to do with whether or not Mathis is a good defender, which you blew right past to make sure everyone knows you think he is worthless. I don`t actually disagree with you on Mathis, although I assume there has to be value there that doesn`t translate into an objective stat that AA sees, because it`s not like he doesn`t have access to Fangraphs and can figure out a spreadsheet.

As I said:

Makes sense though. With the FA starters market as thin and overpriced as it is, the best way to maximize a young rotation is a deep bullpen and a defensive oriented bench

Regardless of what any of us think of the players, acquiring two players who are `known` for their defense for that reason tells us what the Jays are thinking in some of these moves and why they may or may not have been in or out on some players. Whether I agree or disagree with the moves isn`t what I was talking about.

by dexfarkin on Jan 24, 2012 8:44 PM EST up reply actions  

fine

I don’t think the strategy is wrong. I just think they got the wrong player.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait a second!

You mean that all us armchair GMs don’t have complete information? That Fangraphs is not the word of the Baseball Gods, transalted? And what of this magic you call a spreadsheet?

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

That Fangraphs is not the word of the Baseball Gods, transalted?

:) Well said.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 25, 2012 8:58 AM EST up reply actions  

well salted…

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jan 25, 2012 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

His pitch framing is better than average, sure

His blocking is definitely better than Arencibia, but Arencibia’s among the worst defensive catchers in the league.

THT thinks Mathis’ blocking is above average. BtB thinks it’s below average.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 24, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

So lets call it average blocking and above average pitch framing

Still a several run improvement over JPA. Enough to counterbalance his offense? Maybe not, but still, you can’t count him out as an effective backup.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 24, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Wouldn't that indicate a decent defensive catcher?

Better than average pitch framing and blocking (if THT is right). That’s all you really want from a backup catcher.

Plus, look at that catcher’s ERA, haha.

/ducks

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 25, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Interestingly

It may be a while before more reasearch on this is done. Mike Fast, who did these studies, was just hired by the Astros.

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Hiroki Kuroda didn’t cost much more then that (Frasor + Francisco) and speculation is that Oswalt won’t cost more then that either.

by Parallex on Jan 24, 2012 8:10 PM EST up reply actions  

At this point I’d assume Oswalt is the reason that Oswalt isn’t a Blue Jay. Not AA.

by EthanDR on Jan 24, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Same with Kuroda. I feel fairly confident in my guess that he didn’t want to come here.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 25, 2012 8:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I would hope so (considering that the alternative is that AA thinks that Frasor + Fransisco is more valuable then Oswalt/Kuroda).

Regardless, the question was “Could we have upgraded at 1B/SP for that price?” and solely in terms of “price” the answer is effectively yes. Meaning that either AA considered the RP the better investment (god I hope not) or other factors played a significant enough role to cause player dissuasive.

by Parallex on Jan 25, 2012 10:49 AM EST up reply actions  

He may have valued the RP better investments at this point

when also taking into account opportunity costs with bringing in a SP or a 1B. Basically, by bringing one of those in, we also lose the chance to see if Lind is capable of handling the position (which is quite unlikely, but there is an associated cost with that), or if 3 of Cecil, Drabek, McGowan, Alvarez, Carreno, Hutchinson, or Mcguire can handle a spot in the rotation at the Major League level, which is probably a very real cost.

With relievers, you actually gain on opportunities, because it allows Carreno for example to continue to develop as a starting pitcher rather than a bullpen option.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 25, 2012 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Really?

I’d love to hear your thoughts on how we could have upgraded at either spot with 1year/$4.5 million

by Aidin on Jan 25, 2012 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

If you add in Frasor

Who was alluded to in Parallax’s original post, it’s about $8M. Still, that’s basically Carlos Pena who is not a big upgrade over Lind

by MjwW on Jan 25, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I forgot about that part

But the point still stands, not really a lot to work with at those positions. If Kuroda or Oswalt were willing to pitch in Toronto, that might have been a different story

by Aidin on Jan 25, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't mind this, but I don't like it for 4.5M

or if it puts Listch in the minors.

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Jan 24, 2012 6:15 PM EST reply actions  

this is fine

deadline trade piece, don’t like that it probably pushes Litsch to AAA given Perez’s lack of options but whatever.

by benk on Jan 24, 2012 6:22 PM EST reply actions  

Is Perez really that valuable though

I mean, we have another LOOGY type in Evan Crawford. I dunno exactly how it shakes out, but I’m not Perez is as highly values by the front office as you assume

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, even his minor league stats weren’t that impressive. he’s got nice stuff though. someone would pick him up. i’m actually pretty sure he could be traded for something, albeit not much

by REMO on Jan 24, 2012 7:12 PM EST up reply actions  

no

but Litsch can be kept around without losing anything. I actually am pretty bearish on Perez but he can probably fill the LOOGY role just fine and it’s not a big deal in any case

by benk on Jan 24, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions  

My sentiments as well

As long as there is no long-term impact, and it’s not just a stupidly bad signing, I’m fine with it

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 6:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Anybody listening to AA on the Fan?

what’s this about Bautista not wanting to be here? Where did this rumour come from?

Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?

by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 24, 2012 6:35 PM EST reply actions  

Bautista not wanting to be here?

Where did this come from – AA didn’t say that, did he?

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

no he denied it

Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?

by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 24, 2012 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I just caught the tail end of that part

but McCowan was asking something about Bautista being unhappy

Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?

by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 24, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Since McCowan seems to be so in tune with the idiotic side of the fanbase

I’m guessing it went something like, you’re not spending money = no playoffs = Bautista unhappy and wants to be traded

by Aidin on Jan 24, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

AA just clarified the high-80 million salary number

It includes the total cost of the 40 man, and other costs as well. Fairly logical, despite all the handwringing about it

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 6:39 PM EST reply actions  

I can't call this a bad aquisition

I like it, not a lot (I’m not completely sold on him either) but it makes us better not worse.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 24, 2012 7:32 PM EST reply actions  

Interesting fact

Not sure if this has been noted before or how common this is, but the Jays will be spending far more on their bullpen than their rotation in 2012:

Romero (5.25) + Morrow (4) + McGowan (0.6) + Cecil (0.5) + Alvarez (0.5) = 10.85 million

Cordero (4.5) + Oliver (4) + Frasor (3.75) + Villaneuva (2.25) +Janssen (2) + Santos (1) + Litsch (1) = 18.5 million

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 9:02 PM EST reply actions  

AA seems to like vets in the 'pen

previously for picks and deadline flipping, now probably just for deadline flipping. once pitching prospects fail as starters, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jays convert failed starters into relievers that could be around for the long haul (or just flipped at the deadline, haha)

by benk on Jan 24, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised to see all 3 of Cordero, Oliver and Frasor flipped again

As long as it keep netting us prospects/players like Rasmus, I’m fine with AA signing a new bullpen every year haha.

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Another tidbit

The Blue Jays will pay $2 million more for their entire rotation/bullpen than the Yankees will pay A-rod.

Crazy.

by doc alex on Jan 24, 2012 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Not that common at all

But it also happened last yea too

by MjwW on Jan 24, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

I love the signing but...

…am I the only one that would like to see our depth chart look like

Closer: Santos
Set-Up: Janssen
Short Relief: Frasor
Short Relief: Cordero
LOOGY: Oliver
Middle Relief: Litsch
Long Relief: Carlos V

I’m afraid Jansen is going to get lost in the shuffle, and I think he’s got the best combination of stuff and composure in the entire pen.

by Sivvi on Jan 25, 2012 2:25 AM EST reply actions  

I don't like the idea of Oliver as a loogy

he’s a better pitcher than either Frasor or Cordero.

Not that defining bullpen roles is that big of deal in the first place

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 25, 2012 3:24 AM EST up reply actions  

what is your basis for that statement?

Though I do agree with you about preferring to have Oliver pitching in high leverage situations than Cordero and Frasor.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 25, 2012 8:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Since the cost of acquiring a starter is so steep ...

… wonder if AA and Farrell are building the pen with 3 guys who can pitch one turn through the order: Janssen, Charlie-V and one of Litsch / Perez / Carreno, to back up the starters, followed by : Frasor (7th), Cordero (8th), Santos (9th) with Oliver as the LOOGY. Interesting AA mentioned earlier in the off-season that

by Woobe on Jan 25, 2012 9:38 AM EST reply actions  

I certainly think that AA realized that if he wasn’t going to be able to acquire a top shelf starter, acquiring a top shelf bullpen was a cheaper way to improve the pitching staff on short-term commitments.

If Uehara hadn’t refused to come here, we would have had a ridiculously deep and talented bullpen. And it still looks pretty good.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Jan 25, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions  

… he saw Janssen more as a 7th inning guy. I now take this to mean he saw Janssen as being more valuable in a role where he can pitch one or more innings vs. being purely the 8th inning guy.

by Woobe on Jan 25, 2012 9:40 AM EST reply actions  

I think

He meant that the 7th inning can be just as important as the 8th or even 9th inning. At least, that was my interpretation.

by Aidin on Jan 25, 2012 10:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Am I looking at the right Fransisco Cordero because I’m on Fangraphs right now and it’s telling me he earned 0.1 fWAR last year. That’s a pretty gross expenditure of 4.5M bucks.

by Parallex on Jan 25, 2012 12:52 PM EST reply actions  

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