Henderson Alvarez had a dream year, last year, starting it in A-ball and finishing in the majors. And not just getting to the majors but having success there. A 3.53 ERA in 10 starts, only walking 8. He gave up as many home runs as he did walks, which, you would think, would be a bad thing. But he walked less than one guy a start.
He, pretty much, got by with 2 pitches, a sinking fastball and a change up. He kept everything down in the strike zone and got ground balls by the ton.
ZIPS figures Henderson to go 9-8, 4.65, 155 innings in 25 starts.
I'm a little more hopeful than that. I'm guessing 29 starts, 180 innings (I don't think the team would like to see him go much beyond 180), 4.10 ERA, 40 walks, 115 k, 12-9.
Have to figure he'll have some struggles, but if he keeps throwing pitches at the bottom on the strike zone, he should do well.