Make Your Predictions: Henderson Alvarez

by Tom Dakers on Jan 25, 2012 10:58 AM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions

Henderson Alvarez #37.(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Henderson Alvarez had a dream year, last year, starting it in A-ball and finishing in the majors. And not just getting to the majors but having success there. A 3.53 ERA in 10 starts, only walking 8. He gave up as many home runs as he did walks, which, you would think, would be a bad thing. But he walked less than one guy a start.

He, pretty much, got by with 2 pitches, a sinking fastball and a change up. He kept everything down in the strike zone and got ground balls by the ton.

ZIPS figures Henderson to go 9-8, 4.65, 155 innings in 25 starts.

I'm a little more hopeful than that. I'm guessing 29 starts, 180 innings (I don't think the team would like to see him go much beyond 180), 4.10 ERA, 40 walks, 115 k, 12-9.

Have to figure he'll have some struggles, but if he keeps throwing pitches at the bottom on the strike zone, he should do well.

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I really want to go super bullish

but I’ll say 27 starts, 168 innings, 4.15, 110 K, 35 BB

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 25, 2012 11:10 AM EST reply actions

I'm not even going to bother to superficially change this :)

I’ll just adopt this projection in full

by MjwW on Jan 25, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions

that's funny

because before I posted, I was thinking that this would be (one of) the projection(s) on which we most disagreed, though I’m not quite sure why I thought that

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 25, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

Well

He’s got 60 something major league innings, so there’s big errors bars. In reality, he could significantly outperform if the slider gets better. He could be much worse if the rest of the league catches on to his two pitch mix. But as a point estimate, I think it’s about right….the IP/start isn’t overly aggressive, the K/9 is reasonable, the BB/9 is regressed some, a little more might be in order but it’s not crazy. The ERA is broadly line with the peripherals, though a GB/FB would really be needed to firm that up

by MjwW on Jan 25, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions

ya

I think mine/ours is a good 50th percentile projection, but I wouldn’t be very surprised with anything in, say, the 0.8 ERA range around that projection

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 25, 2012 9:34 PM EST up reply actions

My Guess

25 Starts
160 IP
4.20 ERA
50 BB
105 K

Will be fun to watch him. Hopefully, he works in some breaking stuff this year.

"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu

by kdlishus on Jan 25, 2012 11:11 AM EST reply actions

29 Starts – 170 Innings 4.25ERA – 120K – 41BB

by Marc Henderson on Jan 25, 2012 11:20 AM EST reply actions

12W -10L

by Marc Henderson on Jan 25, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions

30 starts
175 IP
4.30 ERA
110 Ks
40 BBs

Jose Bautista has a higher midi-chlorian count than you do.

by Jays11 on Jan 25, 2012 11:32 AM EST reply actions

23starts
144IP
4.25ERA
115K
45BB

by hrv2010 on Jan 25, 2012 11:37 AM EST reply actions

durrrr

I’ll say 17 wins 8 losses, 4 no decisions. ERA of 3.7

by BrownMagician on Jan 25, 2012 11:39 AM EST reply actions

IF - we're gonna be contenders in 2012...

Then Henderson will be a big part of that.

We have this tendency to god-ify prospects – but the split second they lose their “prospect” status by actually making it to the show – we start treating them like uncles who’ve overstayed their visit. Alvarez was a PREMIER prospect. He projects as – at least – a very solid middle of the rotation starter. IF – his third pitch comes around – he’s a potential Ace(ish) guy.

He enters 2012 as a TWENTY ONE year old! He turns 22 April 18th.

I predict he’ll get 32 starts, 190 innings, 167 hits, 42 BB, 184 SO. His ERA will be within the expected range with those results. This kid is a SERIOUS part of the Jay’s future!

by Mylegacy on Jan 25, 2012 11:42 AM EST reply actions

that's some ridonkulous strikeout rate you got there

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 25, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

He masters the slider this year

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 25, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions

so his K rate increases by nearly 2 per 9?

not likely

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 25, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

You haven't seen his new wipeout slider

It’s quite the strikeout inducing pitch.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 25, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

alright

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 25, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

santos-esque slide

by edliuen on Jan 25, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

Is this a real thing? Or are we speculating here?

by scrambles the death dealer on Jan 25, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

I was joking, mostly to mess with Pikachu

Can’t speak for Mylegacy or the progress of Alvarez’ slider.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 25, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

It's possible

If he masters a third plus pitch, he could easily do that. Of course, it’s a low probability likeliood, but nevertheless a possibility.

by MjwW on Jan 25, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions

easily seems like the wrong word to use

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 25, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions

Okay, scrub that

The point stands

by MjwW on Jan 25, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

I think that's the thing

If we assume he gets that 3rd pitch to a point he’s comfortable with then I think he will see a drastic increase in K rate. The trick is whether he’ll add that third pitch.

by T_Mizz on Jan 25, 2012 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

Throwing darts

It is so hard to project Henderson because it will really come down to whether or not he can get that slider to behave. I don’t think he can consistently get through lineups three times on two pitches. I’m cautiously optimistic:

26 starts
149 IP
122 K
41 BB
4.35 ERA
10-10

by icemanDan on Jan 25, 2012 11:49 AM EST reply actions

Sub 4 ERA

I see no reason to think that his ERA will increase in 2012. Having the opportunity to work on his secondary stuff this past winter leads me to believe that his ERA will be close to the same as last year’s.

He’s the type of guy who typically has a low WHIP which helps to keep that ERA down. Love him for that excellent command of the strike zone.

170 IP
110 K
30 BB
3.7 ERA!!!!!!!!!
15-9

by ADIL on Jan 25, 2012 11:51 AM EST reply actions

I find a lot of pitchers do well the first time MLB sees them.

Hitting coaches are smart, they will adjust to him, but if he can add a decent 3rd pitch. I think you’ll be right.

Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"

by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Jan 25, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

30 starts
180 IP
14-7
3.92 ERA
149 K
44BB

by bunner on Jan 25, 2012 11:53 AM EST reply actions

30 starts
12-9
4.00 ERA
176 IP
119 K
26 BB

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.

by Frag on Jan 25, 2012 11:54 AM EST reply actions