Why the Blue Jays will be very good in 2012
by bellw on Jan 25, 2012 2:38 PM EST
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In an interesting article from "Arizona Snakepit," Jim McLennan concludes that Arizona was much better in 2011 than in 2010 mostly through subtraction. In other words, in 2010 they gave a lot of innings to replacement-level pitching and a lot of ABs to replacement-level batters. So, even though they did not make many splashy moves heading into 2011, merely removing players who were under-performing and replacing them with half-decent performances saw a very large increase in wins.
I believe the Jays are poised to do the same for 2012, and I'll tell you why after the jump. I'm very curious to hear what you think.
OK, I'm biased. I'm a Jays fan. But, using fangraphs WAR, the Jays gave an astonishing 2,528 plate appearances to position players with a 0.5 fWAR or less, including 429 PA to Aaron Hill at -0.8 fWAR and 338 PA to Rajai Davis at -0.2 WAR. The Jays had a total of 6210 PA in 2011. This means that roughly 41% of the Jays 2011 plate appearances went to players who were basically replacement level or worse. Replacing these plate appearances with even average or slightly-above average production would likely result in a major increase in team WAR.
Where did the team under-perform in 2011? As we all know, 1B, 3B, 2B and CF were the main culprits. How does 2012 look for these positions?
- 1B: In 2011 Lind had a 0.5 fWAR in 542 PA. Not great for a 1B. Will he better in 2012? If stories about his back are true, then yes, he'll probably better, and even a slight improvement could result in an extra win or two over the course of a season.
- 2B: Aaron Hill, as noted above, was awful. Not too many people were impressed by KJ, but KJ did manage a 0.8 fWAR in only 132 PA for the Jays last year. Extrapolated over a full season, that's actually pretty good, and probably a difference of a few wins right there. In other words, even if KJ is only a slightly above average 2B, we have a lot to look forward to.
- 3B: Mostly awful in 2011, except when Bautista and Lawrie were there. Replace those Nix and Encarnacion 3B plate appearances with a full season of Lawrie, and we can expect a major improvement, even if Lawrie doesn't live up to hype.
- CF: A wildcard. The Jays were awful in center. Even if Rasmus can put up an average WAR for a CF, again we're looking at a major improvement in team WAR over the course of a season. Some pundits believe Rasmus can be much better than average, of course, while others will point to his -0.6 fWar in only 140 PA for the Jays in 2011.
In all, however, I think you get the picture. If the Jays receive even average performances from these positions in 2012, the results should be a large increase in wins. Addition by subtraction.
Pitching, of course, is another matter. But again, the Jays gave a lot of innings in 2011 to pitchers who were basically at or below replacement level. Cecil's 123.2 innings at 0.4 fWAR; Drabek's 78.2 innings at -0.2 fWAR; Rauch's 52 innings at -0.6 fWAR are just a few examples. With a full season of Alvarez (1.0 fWAR in only 63.2 innings), an improved Cecil, and a re-vamped bullpen, the Jays could go along way to avoiding those replacement-level innings, thus improving the team considerably. Will it be enough for the playoffs? Maybe not. Will the Jays be very close? Why not?
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I see the point you’re trying to make here, and it has merit. However, it is very possible that we witnessed players over-performing last year year. Furthermore, I’m not sure what you mean by ‘very good’. The Blue Jays have the potential to be an 85 win team, but their division is too talented for them to make the playoffs.
by scrambles the death dealer on Jan 25, 2012 2:46 PM EST reply actions
Who over performed?
Besides maybe Lawrie and Romero? Certainly Escobar and Arencibia are capable of equal or better seasons this year. The only other player you can argue over performed is Casey Jannsen but he is a middle reliever so he really doesn’t count.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 25, 2012 2:55 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
Romero, Bautista and Lawrie were the three I had in mind.
by scrambles the death dealer on Jan 25, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
I would consider
any expected regression from Romero to be offset from expected improvement from Morrow.- net gain of 0 (though I’d say with more upside then downside)
For Lawrie, I don’t think anyone expects Lawrie to continue at a 9+ WAR pace. A strong 3-4 WAR season is more likely, and I have a hard time believing he is more likely to do worse than 3 WAR than better than 3 WAR.
Bautista probably will regress a bit, but nothing overly drastic. I’de say around 2 WAR is reasonable, down to about a 6WAR player.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 25, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
True but...
If McLennan is correct, and Arizona went from a mid-60ish win team to a mid-90ish win team mostly because they got rid of a lot of replacement level plate appearances and innings pitched, and replaced these with half-decent performances (but nothing too splashy), then I don’t think a 10 win improvement is out of the question for the Jays, provided players stay healthy. So, I guess what I’m saying is that a 90-win team might actually be realistic. (I know, I know, it’s a tough division and an unbalanced schedule, but, well, I’m biased)
Sounds like...
Oakland A’s baseball before everyone else was doing it.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 25, 2012 3:00 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
used, extremely easy setup line, shock of all BBB posters.
"I want to set the record straight: I thought the cop was a prostitute."
by McBluejays on Jan 25, 2012 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Took, attractive man, movies.
"I want to set the record straight: I thought the cop was a prostitute."
by McBluejays on Jan 25, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Actually
I don’t put much thought into my posts (as you can see), but it works either way :D
"I want to set the record straight: I thought the cop was a prostitute."
I can buy this.
Makes sense. I don’t know if it will lead to that many wins, but there will certainly be improvement in the quality of play.
I’ll be very happy if the Jays are in contention or… win a playoff spot, but too many things have to go right for the Jays and wrong for everyone else (not just TB, the Red Sox and NYY but also the Angels or even Texas) for that to happen.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 25, 2012 4:59 PM EST reply actions
I think this may be possible
If you think about it, if they only get slightly better then on a game by game basis, maybe they get or limit a run or two here or there against TB, NYY, BOS then they start turning one run losses into one run wins. For example, where last year Rajai Davis or Aaron Hill came up to bat to end a late-inning rally, maybe Rasmus or KJ extend the rally. Or maybe where Franky or Rauch were counted on to get a clutch late inning out, maybe Oliver and Santos can get that out. Of course, over a 162 game season we’ll see how often this happens and how much effect it makes.
Projected runs
The baseballmusings.com Lineup Analysis Tool projects 870 runs for the Jays in 2012
(a) assuming a lineup of Escobar / Thames / Bautista / Lind / Encarnacion / Rasmus /
Lawrie / Johnson / Arenciba and
(b) taking the OBA and SLG projections from the 2012 Sporting News Fantasy Source
magazine for everyone but Lind (for whom they did not project) and using the
rotochamp.com projection for Lind
870 runs would have made them the second best offense in baseball in 2011 (behind BOS’s 875 but ahead of NYY’s 867). See my earlier post for more explanation of the Lineup Analysis tool.
You can't compare run projection like that
because those 9 players aren’t going to play 162 games. I just did the same lineup analysis for the Red Sox lineup (with Aviles at SS and Darnell McDonald at RF), and I got 914 runs
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Still an improvement
In 2011, the Jays scored 132 fewer runs than Boston and 124 less than New York.
If the projection tool were accurate for all teams, based on your figures the Jays will be 44 runs behind BOS and 32 runs behind NYY in 2012. Substantially better – in relative terms – than last year.
Except this isn't a correct base for improvement
We know our regulars aren’t going to play all the time, and we know, for example, that the Yankees have better bench depth (Andruw Jones, for example) than the Jays.
a bit of the mark
Blue Jays season will live or die with their pitching, which is very difficult to project. IIRC, the Jays were 6th in runs last season, so offense is not the problem. Having bad Cecil, bad Villanueva and Jo-Jo Reyes (no need to put bad in front of him) in the rotation is what killed them last season. How much is pitching going to improve, who knows?
the Jays were 6th in runs last season, so offense is not the problem
Not true. The Jays’ offense was still miles behind the Yankees and Red Sox offense
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
true
but when they are 24th in team ERA, I would say that pitching is much more room to improve. So discussing how much the team batting will improve, while spending a paragraph on pitching, is like discussing why Titanic sank, while ignoring the iceberg.
by voislav on Jan 25, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
For the umpteenth time
ordinal rankings don’t matter…runs for and runs against do. Even if your offense was very good, and the pitching very poor, adding 30 runs of offense as just as good as preventing 30 more runs. The reality is, it’s usually easier to improve a poor performance than a good one, but the Jays had a weird offense in that they have several highly productive players, a couple averge players, and several abysmal producers.
by MjwW on Jan 25, 2012 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 10 recs
my only regret
is that I have but one rec to give
by benk on Jan 25, 2012 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I agree that pitching is key, but...
even using this methodology, there’s reason to be at least somewhat optimistic. The innings they got from bad Cecil, bad Villanueva, bad Reyes, bad Drabek, bad Rauch, etc., will be replaced. The chances of the replacement innings being just as bad as in 2011 are pretty slim, aren’t they? At least, I’d hope so.
just saying
that analysis of the Jays pitching would be much more relevant because this is the area where they can show great improvement. The offense will probably be similar, some guys will have up years, some down, so it will all even out. But last year the pitchers had a real down year, so it would be interesting to see how the pitching projections compare.
The problem as I see it is the following:
The number of wins in the AL is essentially fixed at 1134 (total number of games played). If you assume every AL team goes 10-8 in interleague, that’s an extra 14 or, 1148. Call it 1150.
The Rangers are probably close to as good as las year. The Angels are greatly improved. The Yankees are a little older, but still very good and with some reinforcements. The Red Sox underpormed and probably and shuld be as good as last year. Tampa will have Jennings and Moore for full years, there’s big upgrades. Kansas City has a pile of quality young players who figure only to improve. Cleveland finished .500, but they’ve got some good young players who will play full seasons, so I can’t see them sucking. Minnesota can hardly be worse than last year.
So my problem is, yeah that Jays will be better, but most of the AL seems to be the same. And since the number of wins available in the pot is basically fixed, then to improve the record we have to improve relative to the average AL team. That’s a much higher bat to clear. I mean, the Orioles and Athletics will suck, basically by design. Maybe the ChiSox too. Who knows about the Mariners. But everone should be at least as good next year.
by MjwW on Jan 25, 2012 7:01 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This sounds about right
but I am unwilling to rec it because it made me sad.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 25, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Never fear!
To paraphrase Churchill after Dunkirk (one of the great speeches of the 20th century for my money, and not to pretend that the situation then was remotely comparable to baseball):
We shall defend our Turf, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight in Boston, we shall fight in LA, we shall fight in Fenway and in the Bronx, we shall fight at the Trop; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this team or a large part of it were struggling or injured, then our Farm System beyond the border, built and supplemented by the MLB Draft, would carry on the struggle, until, in God’s good time, the Young Guns, with all their tools and promise, step forth to the rescue of the old
.
by MjwW on Jan 25, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions 10 recs
It's after midnight and I'm tired
I read it a few times but I still don’t get the math:
If you assume every AL team goes 10-8 in interleague, that’s an extra 14 or, 1148. Call it 1150.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 26, 2012 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
Okay, no problem
I’ll break it down. If there was no interleague, and every team played 162 games, there would be a total of 1134 games, which means 1134 total wins to divvy up. And it’s a zero sum game, because for each win there a loss (essentially, bringing up better players would increase the AL replacement number, which is calculated as Total Actual Wins – Total WAR. Fangraphs, etc appromzite based off mulitple years). The same would go for the NL, but it’s 1296 games since there is 16 teams.
However, since each AL team plays 18 games against NL teams, it isn’t strictly zero sum. The Jays could go 10-8 against the NL, and it doesn’t mean another AL team has to be under .500; whereas if there was no interleague and the Jays went 10-8, it necessarily implies the rest of the league is in aggregate 2 games under .500 .
So, in the 144 AL games, the league average will be 72-72. But if the AL averaged 10-8 against the NL, then the overall AL would be 82-80 (and necessarily, the NL as a whole would be 28 games under .500, since at the MLB level it is a zero sum game). 82 wins on average would be 1148 total wins for AL teams, I just rounded to 1150. Which is roughly the same as last year. So if we get better, but most of the rest of the league does as well, the total wins don’t change. So we may have more talent and more WAR, but no more wins
Ahhhh thanks.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 26, 2012 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
I see the ordinal thing drove you a little batty
Kinda of shame to get rid of all those wonderful fallacies though
I figured I've been MIA/lurking enough recently
that it lost its continuity.
Plus, I started this crusade back in July-ish, back when I didn’t yet know that ilovelawrie wasn’t interested in any sort of analysis or conversation, and thus put some effort into illustrating why 1) it’s incorrect to use ordinal rankings, and 2) even if you use the actual numbers (in that case it was team ERA/FIP/xFIP and wRC+), its meaningless without considering the standard deviations.
ORDINAL TEAM RANKINGS ARE NOT ROBUST OR USEFUL ANALYTICAL TOOLS
I quite like this fanpost
I think it was well prepared and thought out.
I think that the Jays might turn some heads this year, and if they do then AA might be convinced this team is ready for the next step (and sign a FA).
For now I’m quite content to watch 162 games with this current roster.
Just a side note for one of the smart people, but is it just me or are relievers worth a lot more now that they removed compensation? Doesn’t it make more sense to retain top relievers now, possibly cutting down on the amount of talented FA relievers and driving up the price?
LF too
This might also be a position where the Jays could get improvement. It would take only consistent year from the winner of Snider or Thames (or them tag teaming the position) to get better numbers.
Don’t forget half the LF innings went to Corey Patterson and Juan Rivera, who collectively produced 0.2 fWAR.
sure
I’m not actually convinced Thames can be a whole lot better than he was in 2011, but I’d love to be proven wrong
Thames at the same level
Thames contributed .9 fWAR in roughly 1/3 of the playing time. The rest, Snider/Patterson/Rivera contributed .6 fWAR.
Thames producing at the same level would be 2.5 fWAR for the year, which is better than the below average 1.5 fWAR last year.
One thing people project that I don’t agree with is that the Red Sox will be a lot better than the Jays. The red Sox have more holes than ever with lots of questions in their pen and #4&5 starters; not very good LF, RF, SS, C; an aging 3B whose having injury problems and an expected regression from Ortiz and Ellsbury (Ortiz much more likely). Yes they will eventually get Crawford back but there’s still questions to how effective he’ll be when he comes back.
This isn’t Red Sox bashing (although feel free to), but they don’t look nearly as intimidating as the Yankees are right now or even the Rays.
And besides, baseball is unpredictable, That's why it's fun! - Yukko Aioi
Crawford is highly likely to bounceback, IMO
and they still have legit superstars (when healthy, obviously) at 1B, 2B, 3B and CF and a pretty good rotation/pen
I dunno about Youk
He’s 33, got some serious hip issues and is more than likely going to miss time during the season because of them.
The ’pen is decent (I think the Jays is slightly better.)
Based on the even odd year history of Josh Beckett, I have my doubts about the superiority of their rotation. At this moment I would it grade it on par (right now) with the Jays.
Otherwise, what you say makes sense.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 26, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
ya, Youkilis has injury problems for sure
but he’s STILL produced nearly 20 WAR over the past 4 seasons
I read that peripherals dropped (although since FG is down I can't get the info I need)
Biggest drop was in his slugging especially the 2nd half. Not sure if it is injury related (more than likely) and not all an aging related decline. He’s still got that batting eye.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 26, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
They have a pretty good front three in the rotation
Lester/Beckett/Buchholz but it gets sketchy after that. Unless you think Vicente Padilla, Carlos Silva or Daniel Bard as a starter are the answers.
Pen is good though, better if Bard doesn’t go to the rotation.
Another thing to remember is most of their superstars have had serious injury issues recently. Youk, Pedroia and Ellsbury have all missed significant time at some point in the last two seasons. It’ll be a good team but there are some issues with them as well.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Buchholz is coming off a serious back injury so they don't know what he's going to bring.
Lester was okay, but horrible in Sept. He’ll probably bounce back.
As I mentioned above, Beckett has a noticeable Even/Odd year situation similar to that of Bret Saberhagen where he’s “down”/down/DOWN! in even years.
When they are on, the Red Sox Rotation can be very good, but I think it’s not a given.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 26, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly, every team in the AL East has question marks
Everybody (with the exception of the Orioles) has the ability to be very good, the Yanks and Sox have the most proven players, while the Jays have a lot of potential, and TB probably has the best mix between proven and potential.
However, they play the games for a reason. Nobody saw Boston’s September collapse coming last year and weird injuries can happen to any team. On the other hand, everything can come together for a team in one season (like the 2010 Giants, 2011 Cardinals).
Baseball is a funny game and it has a way of making the smartest of us look very dumb. If nothing else, this upcoming season should be very entertaining, even if the Jays finish 4th in the division again.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
"everything can come together for a team in one season ...."
You forgot the 2012 Blue Jays. :-)
I agree
However, problem for the Jays is that it gets sketchy after Romero. I would like to see the Jays go after a guy like Oswalt or Harden. Try an incentive laden contracr at 1 year and if it doesnt work out all the prospects on the farm are a year closer to seeing if they can compete at the MLB level.
Thanks, everyone
for commenting on my post. I’ve been reading bluebirdbanter for a long time, but only just decided to join. This has been a fun discussion.
By the way, looking at fWAR some more, my original post was a little flawed. Because Bautista and Lawrie played so well while at 3B last year, and assuming that fangraphs divides its plate appearances appropriately, over the course of the season the Jays did quite well at 3B, over 4 fWAR. Still, I think overall my argument still stands, especially if we can see improvement at LF, and even, say 2-3 WAR each at 2B, CF, and 1B, which isn’t a lot to ask. Just these small improvements could lead to a difference of 8 wins or more. If we can replace a significant chunk of our awful pitching innings with even average pitching innings, we can add a few more wins to the total. Some regression from Bautista can be expected, of course, but I still think an improvement of 9-10 wins is not unrealistic.
9-10 wins is not unrealistic
But is also highly unlikely. Setting aside how many other good teams there are in the AL/AL East, winning close to 90 games is very, very difficult. Expecting something on this order seems to me to be asking for diappointment, but to each his/her own expectations.
Can we expect 9-10 wins?
You’re right, probably not. A lot has to go right. Mostly I’m looking for reasons to be optimistic. I won’t be particularly disappointed by another 80-85 win season, as long as we see some improvements from the younger players. Still, what Arizona showed last year is that you don’t necessarily have to make splashy improvements—just replace replacement-level performances with even average performances—and you can see a big improvement in wins. This is definitely tougher to accomplish in the AL East than the NL West. But, I think the Jays have gone a long way towards replacing awful performances with at least half-decent ones. The Jays could be a lot better than most observers expect. So, I don’t expect a 90-win season, and I’ll probably be very surprised if the Jays win 90 games. But should I be surprised if this happens? Maybe not.
I figure at worst we will see the Jays hover around .500 (above or below)
At best, a high 80 win season which is good for me based on the youth (not including Omar and Darren) and experience of the team.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 26, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Reasonable assumptions
The Jays definitely carried some dead weight that they carried last year, and yes addition by subtraction works more in pro sports than it often gets credit for.
If Jose Bautista can hit close to 40 HRs and have an OPS in the 1.000 range, and if Junel Escobar can hit close to .300, and if Brett Lawrie can hit .300 plus add 30 HRs than I think a lot of your assumptions are true.
Expect similar production from the Catcher position.
Expect the DH with Encarnacion to be about the same with a chance at slight improvement.
Expect similar if not a bit of an improvement from 1B Adam Lind
Expect some improvement from second base.
Expect improvement in CF
Expect similar from LF in the form of Eric Thames
On the mound:
I expect a significant improvement from Romero, Morrow, and Cecil.
Romero is coming off a good year but I actually think he will do better…perhaps a career year.
Morrow too should have a career year
Cecil should be better
Not sure how Alvarez does this year either good or bad…I can’t get a good read on this kid and his stuff.
McGowan, Drabek, and eventually Hutchison or McGuire will fill out the rotation, and one of these guys should step up.
The bull pen should be better on the back end and it has the depth to survive a few injuries.
If Bautista, Lawrie, and Escobar can have good years, and if we get career years from one more player like Encarnacion, Thames, Rasmus, or Lind then our offence should be good. We have a lot of HR’s in our line-up.
The key to our season will be Romero, Morrow, and Cecil.
you expect a significant improvement from Romero?
you think he’s likely to put up like 7 rWAR in 2012?
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