Make Your Predictions: Brett Cecil

by Tom Dakers on Jan 26, 2012 1:00 PM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions

2011 was a long season for Brett Cecil. Right from the start of spring training, things weren't going well. Brett talked about a drop in velocity right from the word go. I still think that he let himself get too worried about it at the cost of focusing on what was really important. Bruce Walton made the point that the drop in velocity wasn't the main problem, the main problem, in his mind, was that there wasn't much difference in the speed of his fastball and his changeup.

We took a close look at his 2011 season back here. Here is a quick look at his numbers as a Jay:

Year	Age	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2009	22	7	4	.636	5.30	18	17	0	0	93.1	116	59	55	17	38	69	1.650	11.2	1.6	3.7	6.7	1.82
2010	23	15	7	.682	4.22	28	28	0	0	172.2	175	87	81	18	54	117	1.326	9.1	0.9	2.8	6.1	2.17
2011	24	4	11	.267	4.73	20	20	2	1	123.2	122	68	65	22	42	87	1.326	8.9	1.6	3.1	6.3	2.07
3 Seasons		26	22	.542	4.64	66	65	2	1	389.2	413	214	201	57	134	273	1.404	9.5	1.3	3.1	6.3	2.04

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/26/2012.

As you can see most of his rate stats were pretty similar, comparing last year to 2010. The biggest problem was the jump in the number of home runs.

Bill James figures him to go 9-12, with a 4.19 ERA, with 61 walks and 146 strikeouts in 191 innings over 30 starts.

We've been told that he is working out hard this off-season. We'll be seeing all the stories about him coming into spring training in his best shape ever. I'll guess he'll be in the 4.30 range, 11-10, 28 starts, 177 innings, 60 walks, 130 strikeouts.

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This is the one player prediction I was dreading

thisrighthere!

http://www.facebook.com/Bluebirdbanter

by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 1:03 PM EST reply actions

I agree with BA's 2009 Prospect Report on Cecil...

“Though Cecil has the raw stuff to succeed in any role, some observers prefer him in relief because his four-seam fastball creeps into the mid-90’s in short stints.” I am one of those “observers” who prefer him in the pen.

IF (fingers crossed and double crossed) McGowan stays healthy I want him to have a full year to FINALLY see if he can put it all together. To that end I want one of McGuire, Hutchison or Jenkins to force Cecil to the pen asap. Before the start of the regular season would be best. If I had to bet – I’d say Hutchison or McGuire do the forcing – by the All-Star break at the latest.

by Mylegacy on Jan 26, 2012 1:12 PM EST reply actions

why do you always capitalize IF

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 26, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

emphasis on the "if" I would imagine

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 26, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

thisrighthere!

http://www.facebook.com/Bluebirdbanter

by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I think Bill James is going to be pretty close

4.15, 175 innings, 135 K, 60 BB

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 26, 2012 1:22 PM EST reply actions

I hope James is right, that's not a bad year for Cecil.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 26, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

agreed

pretty good #3/4

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 26, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions

Me too

Though it seems as if Bill James is really predicting poor run support. I can’t see a losing record with those numbers.

Man who has four balls cannot walk

by Beer Leaguer on Jan 26, 2012 1:56 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

that seems a bit optimistic

i’d be happy with it though

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 26, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

13-10 – 4.05ERA – 150K – 65BB – 200IP

by Marc Henderson on Jan 26, 2012 1:37 PM EST reply actions

Almost futile to guess

So dependent on what happens with other pitchers, etc…

As a starter – ~6 K/9, 3 BB/9, 40% GB%, so a lot of HR, around 1.2 HR/9. That would be around 4.30 ERA. As a full time starter, 28 starts, 180 innings, but I don’t think he gets more than 20 to 25 (at most) for any number of reasons.

As a reliever – ~8 K/9, ~2.5-3 K/9, 45% GB%, something closer to 3.50 ERA. If used as a lefty specialist, even better

by MjwW on Jan 26, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions