Jose for Miguel???
by Lanky07 on Jan 26, 2012 7:44 AM EST
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PrintLong time reader of this site, once and a while poster. This is my first Fan Post, so go easy on me please. I love this site, some very informed people with some great opinions...
So, on to the point... After the Fielder signing went down and with all the talk of moving Miguel to 3B, I got to thinking, what if the Jays and Tigers hooked up for a trade.. Not sure if Jose for Miggy straight up would be a fair deal for the Jays as Jose is signed to a much more team friendly contract and does provide value at RF and 3B if required. But there is a surplus of outfielders with Thames, Snider, Rasmus, Davis, and a bunch of minor leaguers coming up. And for Detroit, moving Jose back to 3B would give them a better defender and some flexibility when Victor comes back... What if both teams tossed in minor league arms, maybe Miggy and Jacob Turner for Jose and Drabek or Hucth???
Just curious on everyone's thoughts.. And a poll, cause I know everyone loves a good poll??
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I think that is a little low for Jose
Would you trade Joey Votto for Miguel straight up.
no way tigers make that trade I would think…Cabrera is younger, and has been a consistent MVP candidate for years now. If they decided to trade Cabrera, they could get ANYTHING they wanted, and for more than Bautista.
Miguel
if your gonna acquire a 1B then trade lind……who by the way, im giving 1 more season, not giving up on him yet
I think this is that "1 more season"
For a lot of players right now on the team. KJ, Colby, Lind, Thames could all be on the way out if they have another bad season.
I think that is the main reason we aren’t signing Fielder or anybody. We want to see what we have first.
1 more season for Colby and Thames?
Thames has about half a season in the majors where he was about average … I’m not sure why he is on any kind of a short leash. Colby has had 1 down year after 2 good ones is only 25, and is still under control for another 2 years after this season. I can guarantee you he has more than a 1 year leash.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 28, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Your telling me that
If Colby continues to hit like last year and Gose is successful in AAA they won’t even consider starting him there? If the guy can’t perform you have to put your best product out on the field. If he has 2 good years then 2 bad ones, does it really matter that much?
Thames was good while he was up but if he goes out and does WORSE than he did last year (which is entirely possible, especially according to Benk and Pika and their stats) they aren’t going to say “K Snider, your going to play another year in AAA”.
I think if both players have worse years than last year then they are gone. If Colby stays the same, hes gone.
I don’t see a player who has 2 good years under his belt getting more than an additional 2 year to work things out.
by Mike Andrew on Jan 29, 2012 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
This is counter to everything we know about AA, you waxes about building asset value. You don’t give up on a guy when he goes through some tough times, especially when he’s 25 or under, or you end up trading away guys like Yunel Escobar for pennies on the dollar. Or, you don’t end up having guys like Alex Gordon or Josh Hamilton (not the most relevant example given the truly serious off the field issues) on your team when they figure it out
I don't think I'd do that straight up, but I'm not sure
Cabrera is owed over $30M more than Bautista through 2015, and doesn’t have the benefit of Jose’s team option. in the long run, each player probably plays the same position (I think Bautista is at 1B in 2013). Bautista is probably better defensively and on the basepaths, but maybe not by a whole lot. but Miggy is 3 years younger.
I think I might do that trade. might. as always, definitely depends on the surrounding moves, because it’s mostly a lateral move. doesn’t make us better, doesn’t make us worse – just makes us more dependent on Snider, Thames and Gose
that said
Jose/Drabek for Miggy/Turner is a no-brainer, IMO. as close as I think Jose and Miggy are, Drabek’s value is so low and Turner is a very nice prospect
Great point above
I didn’t have alot of time to crunch the numbers, but the 30M does make a big difference. Bautista at 1B in 2013 is something I never thought about, if he continues hitting as well as he does his bat would play there, but I wonder how his defense at 1B would be?
I doubt we'll see Bautista at 1B. I'd be shocked, to be honest.
His biggest asset is his arm. If anything, he should be at 3B, but that ship has sailed…
AA bragged this offseason about Bautista playing “gold glove” defense at RF and 3B. Of course, I can’t agree with that statement, but it sure doesn’t sound like a move is imminent.
he also has said we have the worst OF defense in the league
if Gose shows he can hit well enough for the Majors, and we haven’t acquired a 1B/DH to fill that hole, Bautista makes much more sense than just leaving Gose in the Minors
Beats a Gold Glove
In the Rafael Palmeiro tradition
by MjwW on Jan 29, 2012 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Surplus Value
If you assume Bautista and Cabrera to both be 7 WAR players at this point in their career, Bautista will probably begin regressing in a few years, while Cabrera will still be in his prime:
Bautista: 32 WAR for 70 Million (assumign team option is picked up), assuming 5.5 million/WAR (rough average between the 5 million its worth now with the inflated value in future), that gives us about 100 million in surplus value.
2012 – 7 WAR
2013 – 7 WAR
2014 – 6.5 WAR
2015 – 6 WAR
2016 – 5.5 WAR
Cabrera: 28 WAR, 86 Million. At 5.5 mil/WAR again, that gives us 68 million in surplus value.
2012 – 7 WAR
2013 – 7 WAR
2014 – 7 WAR
2015 – 7 WAR
According to (outdated) research, the value of a B to B+ hitting prospect is about 20-25 million, while B’s pitchers are about 15 million (due to more attrition/injury risk). I’d say a good trade would be Cabrera, Castellanos (B+ on Sickels), Smyly (B on Sickels) for Bautista and Encarnacion. They keep Turner for their 5th rotation spot this year and a stopgap DH, we get another potent bat in our system and a good young pitcher to develop.
The projections are overly optimistic
It is exceedingly rare to project a player as a 7 WAR player – we’re talking Pujols a couple years ago, you probably wouldn’t do it today – and the decline factor for Bautista has to be factored in immediately, as he’s 31 this this year. Cabrera is 29 in April, so really, he’s near the point where I’d be factoring decline, if not for this season than certainly next. At most, I’d say 5.5 WAR projection for Bautista, and 6 for Cabrera (and if he’s plaing at 3B, less lol, though it’s not his fault the Tigers are going down that road).
Ultimately, I agree in the conclusion, that Bautista has more surplus value in the contract, though without seriously crunching the numbers, I’d argue it’s closer to $15M than $30M.
I think it’s also possible that Joey Bats will age better than M-Cab as a result of his better body type.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
I'll bet at the very least that Bautista's liver ages better
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Jan 26, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Not sure
From a PR standpoint I think it has the potential to be “horrible.” Jays haters would have a field day with this, even though we’d be taking back a bigger contract. Cabrera is no Prince Fielder, but you also have to wonder how he’s going to age compared to Bautista. I’m not sure if it was posted here, but there was a twitpic of Cabrera with his trainer and he looked pretty “big.”
In actuality I think its obvious neither team would do it. There’s just not enough certainty that you’d be improving by a huge margin for either side to pull the trigger imo.
As suggested in the thread where this trade was first posted (by some jerk)
Why not just move Jose to 1st base and get all that Cabrera offers but at a cheaper rate with better defense?
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know... why not?
If Gose and Marisnick live up to their potential it seems more like an inevitability. Or DH I guess
Plus
Bautista is a below average RF (defensively) but would probably be average to above average (defensively) if playing 1B.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 26, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Only problem right now is...
Jose loves playing RF and you know what happens when Jose gets angry….OMG we need to move him to 1B/DH right now!
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I would anticipate that Bautista will be the starting 1B in 2013 or 2014 at the latest.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
How would that work?
Lind and EE platoon at DH, EE gets some starts in LF? Thames plays RF?
In a couple years, when some better defesnive OF push their way through, fine. Bautista is not great in RF, he’s not terrible either
I was thinking the same thing...
But moving Jose doesn’t mean his defense will be better at 1B, and getting Turner in the deal could be the sticking point.. From a PR point I agree, but I think to make the team better, sometimes the fans have to bend…
Deceptive age difference
I know Cabrera is technically 3 years younger but he has played 1351 games in the majors already because he came up and stuck very young. Bautista, the ultimate late bloomer, has played 885 games and has a body type that will likely age much more gracefully than Cabrera’s. Their bats are basically a wash and JBau gives you more value in the field and on the basepaths (and probably in the clubhouse as well, since I don’t think JBau has ever been picked up on a DUI). I could be convinced to do a trade where we got Jacob Turner as well, but I would not do it straight up.
Great point
Never thought about games polyed. So the wear and tear of Jose might not be as bad as Miggy… As for the the club house, Miggy’s DUI would be a concern, but something management would have a serious discussion before I’m sure..
Oh and welcome -glad you love the site.
Happy posting!
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 12:24 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Jose's our spine
Any big trades we make in the next 3 years will add to what Alex calls our “core”. Jose, Lawrie and Escobar will stay put, Rasmus too as long as he rebounds, we’ll keep hoping that Snider (or Thames) takes the next step and joins that group, we’ll continue developing d’Arnaud, Gose / Marisnick and any trades will be to try to bring in another elite bat to compliment Jose in the heart of the order. I don’t see Alex looking to take sideways steps with our position players like the trade proposed here, just leaps forward.
If Lawrie progress though..
one could argue that Jose would not be the spine just due to his age. At 31, if i’m not mistaken Jose is the elder of the group and might not be in his prime while the jays are contending.. To flip Jose and Miggy (3 years younger) might be a step forward. Their numbers are similar and throwing in the Turner/Drabek would give a strong rotation with Morrow, Romero, Alverez, Turner and who ever… I don’t see it as a step back, or a leap forward, but a tinker move.. Similar to the one’s in 91 with McGriff and Fernandez for Alomar and Carter…
I would probably pass out cold if Jose were to be traded.
I hope I’m not driving if/when it happens.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 1:02 PM EST reply actions 5 recs
Good FanPost
Id make that trade if i were the jays not knowing the financial situations on each player, It will clear room for Gose and Marisnick when they eventually get the call and we could then trade Lind for like Wade Davis or a good SP of some sorts.
Cabrera also loves boozing.
He was arrested before the start of last year. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2011/02/tigers-first-baseman-miguel-cabrera-arrested-for-dui/1
Canadian beer is really good. He would probably baloon up in weight from all the beer and end up at DH, or AA (not the GM).
Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"
by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Jan 26, 2012 1:20 PM EST reply actions
Sounds like this was Mr. I's deal.
Too bad blame goes down not up.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
Cabrera vs Bautista
I say no for a Cabrera – Bautista trade straight up. They’re similar in their offensive production and Bautista is a better and more versatile defender, not to mention the big differences in their contract.
As for the age thing… Age is just a number, right? I know a few 28 year olds who drink and party a lot, and I know a few 31 year olds who take care of their bodies. It’ll be interesting to see who fares better between the 2 groups in 3-4 years.
No way Jose
As much as this may seem a good idea, i would prefer to keep Bautista. It just does not feel right trading him.
In AA we trust.
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