Bautista's Future
by doc alex on Jan 26, 2012 3:33 PM EST
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Boring offseason time... I don't think there's much doubt that Bautista will play out at least most of his contract with the Jays, both because of his abilities and the PR hit the team would take trading him away. That being said, what would you do with him if you were the GM?
Currently, he's a top 5 hitter in baseball, but when is his peak? Probably this year or next at the latest, whereas the the rest of the Jays look to be peaking around 2014 (especially the young pitchers that are about to come up). With that in mind, would you favour trading him at peak value for top prospects or other pieces of the puzzle that look to peak at the same time? Or hold on to him for a smooth transition to an eventual replacement, be it Rasmus or Marisnick or Snider? Or do you disagree with my assessment of his peak?
Anyways, all just an interesting meaningless game to play while I procrastinate from studying for my exam.
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Trade him if someone offers a massive package
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 26, 2012 3:47 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Massive package or "massive package"?
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 26, 2012 4:08 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
We already have Brett Lawrie.
"Captain Picard Day is for the children." : Captain Picard
"Wu-Tang is for the children." : ODB
That's pretty much true for anybody though
What would it take to make the deal sweet enough to consider?
I dunno
Baustista has a lot of surplus value, and is much more of a sure thing than Harper. I’m not sure Harper has more expected surplus value than Bautista
More years under team control
Plus his salary would be less for the duration of those years
yes, but there's a not-insignificant chance
that Harper doesn’t make the Majors/never figures out Majors pitching/is only a role player/is only “pretty good”
I'd do Harper for Bautista straight up
Harper will be a destroyer of worlds.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I was thinking more Bhagavad Gita than Oppenheimer
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
There’s also a significant chance (albeit less than the odds Harper isn’t a superstar) that Bautista starts tailing off sooner than expected.
Let's put it this way
If Prince could get $214M and Pujols got $254M, what would Bautista have got? $150M+ is my guess. We’ve got him for 4Y/$56M, with an option. So there’s something like 80-100M surplus value in his deal.
Could Bryce Harper be worth that much in surplus value? Absolutely. Would I bet on it? No.
That is a good way of putting it
The counter-argument though is that even if Harper doesn’t reach the same level of surplus value though, the marginal gain from Harper’s surplus when the Jays are expected to be on the cusp of a playoff spot could be more valuable than Bautista’s which comes at a time when the team isn’t as likely to be close to the playoffs.
I would think Atlanta
Teheran + Vizcaino + Andrelton Simmons for Bautista+Hech
Or am I undervaluing Bautista? Overvaluing? And Atlanta’s outfield looks set already unless they moved some players around.
The trick is to find a team who wants to win now, but also has decent minor league depth.
That seems quite light for Bautista
Going by Sickels, that’s an A, B+, and a B for quite possibly the 2nd or 3rd most valuable player in MLB (after Longo and maybe Moore, imo). I’d do Teheran, Heyward, Vizcaino for Bautista + something.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
The thing is though
Being merely above average doesn’t make him one of the top 3 most valuable players in terms of surplus value.
Fine, forget "above average"
I think he’ll be a 4 WAR pitcher next year, with potential for more.
And I know that’s pretty optimistic for a rookie, but I’ll bet on Moore being that good.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
8/37 for a 4 WAR pitcher
I think that’s pretty damn valuable.
If you asked me if I want Tulo (who was #3 in 2011) and his contract or Moore and his contract, I would seriously have to consider it. (though I think i’d still go Tulo, damn)
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
That's fine
My point was merely, above average is something like 2.5-3 WAR, and that doesn’t put him top 3
I don't think I'd take that bet
I’d say his 50th percentile projection is probably closer to 3 WAR, though that might be pessimistic; I could be convinced that it should be higher.
I still don’t think it’s fair to call him top-3 in value without any real MLB data. once he starts K’ing 10 per 9 in the Majors, then we can talk
well
that’s exactly what he did last year, albeit 19 IP. But okay.
Just saying, would you take the 7 WAR SS that costs 9/152 or the 3~4 WAR SP (seems conservative to me, but fine) that costs 8/37
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
eh, you know what. I think I'd take Tulo as well
but I would seriously contemplate taking Moore.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
R we doing this again?
really?
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
we should make rogers cant spend money
and we need a vet sp, every other day to counter these
what do you say tsfl?
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 26, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Francisco Cordero fills that role
Needz moar Oswalt
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
May as well
Rogers would be too cheap to ever sign Hutch to a major league deal, might as well give him a chance somewhere else
by doc alex on Jan 26, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I propose we put all future Fanposts into 3 buckets
1. “Glad You’re Not the GM” -JoBu Trades
2. “Rogers Is Cheap” -Boycott/’It’s Not My Money’ agruments
3. “I Know Better then AA” -Vet FA’s (we should get)
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ban them all TFSML
You have the power, abuse it, haha.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I haven't banned anyone yet.
yet
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
You're too nice.
Leaving all the dirty work for the rest of us.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 26, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions
I saw that good work of yours.
that guy had it coming. /runs
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
lmao...oh boy
Could have sworn I saw ‘bang’ and not ‘ban’. Was this intentional?
by llello.loves.ace on Jan 26, 2012 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Man do I miss game thread conversation
#talkinginrealtimeyo!
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 26, 2012 5:23 PM EST reply actions
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