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Month by Month Preview

I'm starting to get bored of not having any baseball on TV so I decided I'd take a look at the Jays schedule this season and see where the best chances for wins will come. WIthout further ado:

Star-divide

April: The month of April is one of the easiest on the Jays schedule with a good number of winnable series. After opening the much anticipated season on the road in Cleveland, the Jays come home for three series all against division rivals (Sox, Orioles, and Rays). This will be an early test to see how the team matches up against the rest of the AL East. After the homestand, Toronto travels to Kansas City and Baltimore for two series that are against much weaker competition. If the Jays are going to get off to a hot start like they have the past couple years then they should take at least 4 of these 7 games. The last series of April is at the Dome against the Mariners. Once again, a series where the Jays should take at least two games. Predicted record for month: 14-9.

May: The month of May is a whole lot harder than April and the Jays will spend a whole lot of time in hotels as they have a couple of long road trips. The beginning of the month has a home series against the Rangers where the fans at the Rogers Centre might get to see the pitcher who got away in Yu Darvish. This series will be important for the team as they must gain some momentum before setting out on a eleven day, three series road-trip. The first series on the trip will be a difficult four game set one against the new AL superpower Angels. After a day off the Jays get two games against Oakland and four against Minnesota. They should have a chance to get some road wins in those six games. The team will then head home to have a pair of two game series against division rivals Tampa and The Evil Empire Yankees. There's then a weekend interleague series tossed in the Mets which should be a chance for a sweep before heading out on another difficult road-trip against the Rays and the Rangers. The month wraps up with an easier home series against the O's. Projected record for month: 13-15

June: June is about a medium difficulty for the Jays starting with a home series against the Red Sox and then a road series against the other coloured Sox in Chicago. Interleague play then starts with three NL East teams- Atlanta, Washington, and Philadelphia. The Phillies series will hopefully give fans in Toronto another chance to see the Doc. Two more road series wrap up interleague play against the Brewers and Marlins. Interleague play usually isn't kind to Toronto, but this year it's a relatively easy schedule so hopefully they get some wins. The month wraps up with two difficult series against the Red Sox on the road and a home series against the Angels. It will the be the first chance to see Pujols in a Angels jersey. Projected record for the month: 13-14

July: July is an easier month for the Jays with the All Star game tossed in for good measure. A four game home series against the Royals should be a good way to start off the month. A road series against the White Sox brings the Jays to the All-Star break and hopefully they can sweep this last series like they did last year in Cleveland to go to the break on a good note. A road series against the Yankees and then the Red Sox. These two roads series should give AA a good idea of what to do with the team at the trade deadline because if they can't compete with the big boys in the AL East it will probably be time to trade some pieces before the end of the month. Two home series follow with three against Oakland and three against the much heavier 2012 Detroit Tigers. Two road games at Safeco round at the month. Projected record for the month: 15-10

August: This month will be pretty important for the Jays if they're still in contention as they play alot of games (29) against good teams in the AL. After starting on the road against Oakland and Tampa they come home for a long three series homestand against the Yankees, White Sox, and Rangers. This homestand will be important if the team is still fighting for the playoffs. Three road series then follow against Detroit (I'll be there for all three!), Baltimore, and the Yankees. Two home games against Tampa round out the month. Projected record for the month: 14-15

September: I think every Jays fan prays that this month actually matters for once, for more than just seeing new players getting called up. I know since I've been old enough to follow the Jays I haven't seen a meaningful September. Two more home games against Tampa and three against Baltimore hopefully kickstart the Jays into a solid stretch-run. A road series with the Red Sox is followed by a home series against each of the Mariners and the Red Sox, who are hopefully collapsing at this point in 2011 style. A big nine game road trip against division rivals New York, Tampa, and Baltimore will make or break the Jays season and it would sure be fun if these games mattered. The Jays' September ends with a four game home set against the Yanks. Projected record for the month: 16-11

October: The season spills into October where the Jays end their 2012 regular season campaign against the Twins. Also in October, PLAYOFFS!!!!!1111. Projected recored for the month: 2-1 (not including all those delicious playoff wins)

Projected record for the year: 87-75 (I think the Jays are anywhere from 80-90 wins so I'm happy that projecting each individual game got me in this range).

Hope some people get pumped for the season reading this because I know I did. Is it Spring Training time yet?

Comment 21 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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Anyone else

going to drive down to the Cleveland game? (or have I asked this before..hmm.) I’m taking a full truck load down for the Thursday and Saturday games (with some rock and roll hall of fame on the friday). Let’s have a good BBB contingent. haha.

by Lutherie on Jan 26, 2012 4:59 PM EST reply actions  

I hope your predictions are right..

and that this September means something. I have tickets to games against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees that month. I don’t think I can get more excited.

by Lutherie on Jan 26, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

The schedule is heavily backloaded against the AL East

Leaving off the OrioLOLs, there’s 54 games against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays, or an average of 9 per month. However, the breakdown is:
April – 6
May – 7
June – 6
July – 6
August – 11
Sept – 18

The danger, I fear, is that the August and September will be brutal (other than the AL East games, August features a West Coast swing and 3 games at Detroit), but the early season is softer. Due to this, I worry about false optimism and expectations. If we’re a true talent .500 team who ends up at 81 wins, we could easily be 5-7 wins above at the end of July, and I don’t want to see bad decisions made because of this, much less the media reaction if they sold off pieces at the deadline despite being not too far off the playoff pace (assuming 5 teams). Hopefully, if Toronto isn’t going to contend, the race gets run away with so there isn’t this false choice/dichotomy.

by MjwW on Jan 26, 2012 5:21 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

2009 started off very well, also

Very easy schedule, then the Jays started facing the tougher AL East teams and everything fell apart IIRC.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.

by Frag on Jan 27, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions  

27-14 after sweeping the White Sox on Victoria weekend

Half a game behind th Dodgers for the best record in baseball. I distinctly remember wondering that night how much longer it would/could last. Unfortunately the answer that swiftly and decisively. Sigh. This just kinda deflated me

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 1:27 AM EST up reply actions  

While optimistic

I’ll predict we do great in April, Terrible in May, Bad in June, ok in July, good in August and good in september.

by STZ513 on Jan 26, 2012 6:20 PM EST reply actions  

Seems about right.

"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"

by jays182 on Jan 26, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Last year...

…I did a prediction contest on what the Jays record would be against each opponent. Only three people entered, including myself. However, I’d be glad to set it up again, if there is interest. It’s somewhat like the exercise that jays182 did in this post, but broken down by opponent instead of month. This year, I could add the monthly records to the predictions to create a second dimension to this contest.

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jan 27, 2012 10:37 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

Yes

Go for it.

Perhaps a good time to do it would be mid-February.

Offer a prize of 10,000 internet pointz to the winner…

by siggian on Jan 27, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I can be clued out about a lot...

…but are internet pointz those things that you can redeem at Timmy’s which make your $1.90 coffee cost 10 cents less than $2.00?

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jan 27, 2012 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm down

"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"

by jays182 on Jan 27, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

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