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Interview with Blue Jays Pitching Coach Bruce Walton: Part Four

Bruce Walton and Jesse Litsch, from last year in Calgary. (Belinda Den Dekker)

The second last part of our talk with Bruce Walton.

If you missed any of it; part one is here, two here and three here.

I'm not sure how much it comes across in the text of this, but I really had a good time talking to Bruce. He was very nice to talk too. I like talking to folks from who I can learn about the game. Some of the best parts, of course, were before and after the recorder was turned on. Some of the fun was just how great it was to talk baseball, face-to-face with someone that knows the game so well. Bruce said, before we were recording, that Calgary isn't a baseball town. It is rare to have more than a simplistic talk about baseball with someone here.

Ricky Romero seems so intent on improving each year. What can he do to continue to get better?

Ricky's still growing, he's still young. He grew last year by taking the number one spot and running with it. We are still working on fastball command, a little bit. We are still working on pitching to both sides of the plate. We are still working on if we don't have our stuff what do we do. We accomplished a lot last year. We are still working on how to pitch in Boston and New York consistently. I think we found a little something there last year that started to work. As good a year as Ricky had there's still room for improvement every year. He wants to be the best, he wants to make the All-Star team, he wants to win the World Series. He wants to be the best pitcher in baseball. And with that attitude and that drive, he has so much stuff he needs to work on every year. He s a tremendous athlete that has tremendous holes and he wants to get better every year, so there is always something that we can improve on.

We have to change our game a little bit, Ricky can't stay with his normal game all the time. We have to make adjustments. It's a game of adjustments. For Ricky to be better it is adjusting with the game.

What does Brandon Morrow have to do to be more consistent?

Brandon, it's my second year with Brandon. His first year we went through some walk issues, base on balls, command issues. We pretty much ironed it out. We got to the point where now we left a lot of balls in the middle of the plate. So we went from one extreme to the other extreme and we gave up a lot of home runs last year. He's a fly ball pitcher at times, he doesn't get a whole lot of ground balls, so when the ball sits in the middle of the plate belt high and they get a piece of it, it goes. So now it is just staying down in the zone consistently. I think for Brandon to be consistent, his pitches have to be down consistent. We have to plan the effort level to pitch at consistently. Consistency is what we have to work on in every aspect. Keeping the ball down, keeping our emotions in check. Keeping our work effort at a certain level, consistently. All those will come. This is the year for that to come. There's steps to becoming a major league starting pitcher. The first step was that we needed to throw strikes. We accomplished that. It took us a year and a half. Our next step is to manage the game a little bit better and manage our emotions a little bit better and manage our season a little bit better and become more consistent. That's where we are at.

Henderson Alvarez came from A ball to the Majors. How was he so successful?

He repeats his delivery very well. He sinks the ball very well. And he throws a changeup off his sinker that looks exactly the same. So he pitches at 93 to 95, with a sinking fastball and he has a changeup that looks exactly the same at 82 to 83. And when you can do that you can pitch where ever you want. We are in the works of getting his slider going a little bit. His slider gets a little sloppy, we need to get it more consistent, a little tighter. He has a great career ahead of him. He puts the ball on the ground. He gets 14 ground ball outs a game. And when a guy can do that and throw mid-90's and sink the ball, major league hitters don't like it. Minor league hitters don't know what he's doing. Major league hitters know what he's doing, they don't like it. They don't like the ball sinking at 95 at the knees and a changeup coming off of that at 82. They don't like it, they can't cover that. They want to hit off straight fastballs not sinking fastballs. So he has, not only does it have a good fastball, it's a sinking fastball and a great changeup, he's got great command. He's got a great feel for pitching. He's got a long way to go. He's still young. He's still going to have some games that get away from him. Mentally we have got to work on some things. But he's a great prospect and he had a great showing for us last time.

I was surprised that the troubles Kyle Drabek had at the start of the year. Can he overcome that?

Oh yeah, Kyle's going to be fine. It's odd that you come up and you don't have problems and you don't struggle. It's odd if you don't struggle. Kyles biggest struggle was that he didn't throw enough strikes. He found out that the strike zone is a little smaller. He found out what it was like to be a rookie in the major leagues. He needs to overcome that mentally a little bit. He needs to understand that contact is ok. He'll be fine. So throw more strikes, understanding that getting outs with contact is fine. If you have a bad game you have to leave it at home. Those are all experiences that every pitcher that comes up and struggles has. Everyone that comes up and struggles has those same experiences. Bad games, don't throw enough strikes, base on balls and mentally they get a little whacked out about it, at the time. Kyle's fine, he has a great head on his shoulders, he struggled a little bit, throw strikes and that's an easy fix. It comes with age. He's young.

Jesse Litsch moved from the starting rotation, why was the decision made?

We always liked Jesse Litsch. He did a nice job as a starter then he went through some arm surgeries. He came back and he started and he did ok. I think when we looked at him going to the bullpen it was to make our team better, rather than if Jesse could start or reliever, he could do both. But with Jesse's numbers against right-handed hitters and his left-handed splits aren't bad either. Jesse can throw the ball every day. He really can. He's got a rubber arm who could come in and throw breaking ball first pitch strike, throw changeup first pitch strike. He can do a lot of things, so he is very effective in the bullpen role, that at the time, I think we needed. So I think he filled the void and at the same time did a very good job getting his 12-14 outs a week over 5 days rather getting his 12 or 14 outs in one day.

That's not to say he's not ever going to start again. I think he did a fabulous job in the bullpen. I think that you saw him out there a lot, it's not easy to find guys that can pitch back-to-back days like Jesse did. I think with Henderson coming and Dustin coming make it easier for us to do that. Without Dustin coming back or Henderson doing what he did we wouldn't have been able to see what Jesse was like down there.

Is the team going to limit Dustin McGowan's innings this year?

We haven't discussed that yet. Dusty's done it before. It is a unique situation for us. I think we have to sit down and discuss it. At this time I really have no idea. Hopefully Dusty can pitch 200 innings, that's what I'm hoping. Whether it is this year or next year, I don't know. Dustin did a great job coming back from a couple of really painful years for him, mentally and physically and it is just nice to see him out there pitching.

So Dustin, what he is going to do? How is he going to be used? We haven't talked about it. I don't think we are worrying about it. I don't think we are there yet. We are just making sure Dusty is fine and that he comes into Spring Training and he fights for that number 5 hole. That's what I want for Dusty and whatever happens happens after that.

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Damn

i was really hoping he would say “POUND DOWN”

+1 is only good if you actually rec the post

by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 27, 2012 10:26 AM EST reply actions   2 recs

hah

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 27, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions  

ya

tsk tsk
that’s pretty inappropriate

I am the Walrus

by yleviticus on Jan 27, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Great segment

Really like the talk about Drabek.

by Steve02 on Jan 27, 2012 11:03 AM EST reply actions  

Some interesting insights here

On Morrow, I think the trade-off between walks and pitching in the zone is interesting. We all like less BB, but not at the cost of a ton of well hit balls. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

On Drabek, as much as there’s a company line obviously, the Jays really seem not worried. I’m glad they’re not panicking and making rash decisions, but I hope there’s a plan to get him back on track. And I still worry about the mental component – he would get so agry and just lose it on the mound at the first sign of trouble

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 11:52 AM EST reply actions  

"He's Young" - Bruce Walton

The problem is that Drabek’s been good at every level (except GCL) in the minors. Just needs experience/seasoning.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 27, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

thing is he's never been great

his AA stint was pretty good for the age, but far from dominating as one would expect from a top prospect

by benk on Jan 27, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Sometimes pitching prospects with "good stuff" don't look as good when it comes to minor league numbers

Check out Halladay (before the Mel Queen rebuild), Chris Carpenter’s and Ricky Romero’s minor league numbers. None of them stand out as anything special from the numbers.

I’ve said it before about minor league pitching stats. Good control/command guys look better than they are but get exposed at higher levels if they don’t have decent velocity and/or a plus secondary pitch. Guys with better “stuff” (for lack of a better term) probably work more on refining their pitches and getting their command/control down. It makes for lesser numbers in the minors but a better pitcher in the major leagues.

Of course, they may never figure it out either, but if they do, look out.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Halladay before the Mel Queen rebuild wasn't very good

and Carpenter was merely pretty good with the Jays, and Romero is a weird outlier.

by benk on Jan 27, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions  

I also looked at Randy Johnson

He had some horrific BB/9 rates. I’m not sure if this holds true for most, but I wonder what the top pitchers with good stuff looked like in the minors. I bet enough of them looked like they’d be nothing special in the big leagues from their minor league numbers.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Control can be one last things to come around for high ceiling prospects…I don’t worry too much about a moderately high walk rate (4-5 BB/9) if a guy is blowing hitters away.

Obviously, assessing minor leaguers is a highly individualized task. But when guys with great stuff aren;t blowing minor league pitchers away, absent a cogent explanation like being told to develop cetain pitches, it’s worrisome

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Didn't you look at a bunch of minor league pitchers' data at one point?

I think you looked at comparables for Molina from AA numbers. Did you notice anything in general that seemed to be a predictor of future success from that work?

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha

Well, that was more just using a counterfactual to disprove an overly broad premise, and then I just kept going to see if there was anyting we could say about Molina using statistically somewhat comparable players. But there’s nothing you can take from that, because I was selecting for a very specific kind of player.

Research into this has shown that the two single most important factors in predicting major league success from minor league numbrs for pitchers is K and BB rates (and for hitters, these are also quite important). That said, they explain very little of the overall variation, because in reality it’s very complex. For example, a 23 year old out of college assigned to short season rookie ball (Appy league for example) should dominate, because he’s facing much younger, much less experienced players who won;t be used to the polish he has, even if his stuff is mediocre.

When I look at minor league stats for pitchers, I look at his K and BB rates, his age, experience and league. To al lesser extent, BA against/WHIP and HRs allowed (though this is highly park dependent). I want to see dominating K/BB numbers, but I want to see it at an age appropriate level. Another thing I look at is the trend in FB/GB ratio…generally pitchers tend to give up less ground balls as they move up.

Then there’s the whole scouting report dimension, which is equally important to me. How many pitches, and how good. Build and physicality. The problem is, often times there isn’t good scouting info available. For example, with Molina, it was a lot of disparate pieces of info, which didn’t seem to fit together. Until a month ago, there was really nothing on Hutchison. In this case, I tend to default to statistical profiles, because at least it’s objective.

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I like your approach, it seems pretty sound

It makes it tricky when there’s little to no scouting reports, like in Molina’s case.

I remember seeing scouting reports on Hutchison before this year, but he was pure speculation and projection. He was really skinny coming out of HS and the Jays figured he would add velocity as he filled out to go with a decent changeup.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

I remember seeing scouting reports on Hutchison before this year

I find the term scouting report is used pretty liberally. When I say scouting report, I mean a serious one like the Fanshot I put up a couple days ago of the Bullpen Banter one, where you get a detailed assessment of each pitch, current and future, mechanics, etc done by an objective source. I don’t believe there was anything like this a year ago on Hutch, because I scoured the net looking for good info and really there’s wasn’t much other than a few sentences from prospect experts from chats and something like Jays Journal’s profile on him (ans as much as I enjoy those, they’re not scouting reports, they’re profiles) which basically said good command/control (obvious from th numbers), sinking fastball, slider and change-up, working on secondaries.

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, if you're looking for those kind of scouting reports, they're few and far between for Jays' prospects IMO

I get some info from Batter’s Box because they do interviews with Jays’ minor league managers and coaches from time to time. You have to take it with a grain of salt because it comes from the organization itself but it’s one of the few sources for reports on the Jays’ minor leaguers.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I definitely would take that bet

but without more objective data, I have no real way to refute your claim

by benk on Jan 27, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

It seems right to me

but I"m going more on faith than reason when I say that. I wish somebody smarter and less lazy than me would crunch the numbers.

Anybody? Anybody?

/crickets

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll take a crack

Though it’s going to be mostly generalities not specifics. Generally, highly ranked pitchers will have better stats than less highly ranked pitchers, but this is in aggregate. Someone like Tim Lincecum torched the minors…only spent 62 IP there, but averaged 15 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9. That said, you’ll also have guys with similar profiles who end up as nothing. Likewise, some highly ranked guys don’t put up overwhealming numbers but still become excellent major leaguers. Look at Chris Carpenter…he was thrice ranked Top 100 by BA, all while walking over 4 per 9 every year. Guys like him which the stuff and physical projection to be frntline starters often take time to harness the stuff. Heck, Nolan Ryan and Randy Johnson didn’t harness their stuff until their 30s, really they were throwers before that.

So, I guess what I’m saying, is at an individual level, stats aren’t determinative. But as groups, higher ranked guys perform better in the minors, but even then the stats can be superficial and you have to control for the competition faced, how aggressive the promotions, etc

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

You're a braver person than I am MjwW, my hat's off to you

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions  

That's the thing

I’m not sure I agree with the premise he’s been that good at every level – okay, for sure, but he hasn’t exhibited the kind of superior performance expected of premium prospects with great stuff. Let’s look at the years from his Tommy John onwards:

2009, High-A Clearwater (age 21): 61.2 innings, 2.48 ERA, 74K, 19 BB. 28.6 K%, 44% GB%. SO he excelled here and was promoted to AA
2009, AA Reading: 96.1 innings, 3.64 ERA, 76K, 31BB. 19.1 K%, 41% GB%. So alright, but not very dominating – more workmanlike.
2010, AA New Hampshire (age 22): 162 IP, 2.94 ERA, 132K, 28BB. 19.9% K%, 49 GB%. So he got a lot of ground balls, but was not overly dominating, and the control wasn’t as good.

I dunno, it just seems like a guy with stuff as good as he’s supposed to have should have been more overpowering against minor leaguers, especially the secodn time round in AA

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't say great for that reason.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 27, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

…and the control wasn’t as good.

.

I’m confused. Isn’t 28 walks in 162 IP pretty good? 5.8 K/BB? Clearly better than the 50 BB in 158 IP the year before?

by Lutherie on Jan 27, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Gotcha

I was going to say..haha. That is an exceptional season.

by Lutherie on Jan 27, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Whoops

Sorry, my bad…I eyeballed the numbers before I hit post, but there were a lot of them so I didn’t catch it

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Tell me about it
Bruce said, before we were recording, that Calgary isn’t a baseball town.

I would love to be able to get together with some other Calgarians a couple of times during the season to sit back, watch a game, and talk baseball.

I think I have good ideas sometimes. I just suck at communicating them.

by Jason Witte on Jan 27, 2012 12:44 PM EST reply actions  

As another Habs/Jays fan, I’m in!

by Marc Henderson on Jan 27, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

You're a habs fan, too??

Sweet.

So how should we do this? We should see the opener to start. Do either of you guys have a favourite place to watch a game? I sometimes go to Shanks, but can’t think of another good one.

I think I have good ideas sometimes. I just suck at communicating them.

by Jason Witte on Jan 27, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Craig and I have gone to the bar to watch games a couple of times.

We’ll make sure to have some nights out with folks this year.

I blog, therefore I am.

by Tom Dakers on Jan 27, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions  

This is awesome.

Every team’s blog needs to do this.

Most arguments are really about context.

by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 27, 2012 1:14 PM EST reply actions  

so Alvarez..

if he starts commanding a third pitch, with the movement the other two have, what’s his ceiling then?I’ve heard number three, but he didn’t look like a number three to me last season. Throw a decent cutter or slider into his pitch mix and he’ll carve.

by ABsteve on Jan 27, 2012 3:34 PM EST reply actions  


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