Best of the 2008 Draft: Brett Lawrie
Hello all. Some of you may know me. Probably not. I've written a few articles about the Blue Jays over at Buried Treasure. Recently, I've been added as a writer at the Fansided site Seedlings to Stars. For my FIRST article, I have chosen to explain why Brett Lawrie will be the best player drafted in the 2008 draft (Pedro Alvarez :( ). Enjoy!
4 months ago
McCutchenIsTheTruth
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I like the Lawrie Love
However, I’m hoping Brett’s really legit over a season otherwise we might be seeing a Josh Phelps.
He slammed in half a season in 2002 .309/.362/.562 and then AL pitchers found out he loved to chase the high fastball and wouldn’t take a walk.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 27, 2012 12:23 AM EST reply actions
I doubt Lawrie will strikeout as much as Phelps did, but it’s a good idea to be cautious about Lawrie.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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the guy struck out 28.6% of the time and had a .399 BABIP for 2002
that’s a lot different from what Lawrie did.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Nonetheless
I remember the way Phelps came up and just slugged; he almost won the Rookie of the Year away from Hinske despite playing about half as many games. Made the future look really bright, and never came close to it again, which was so disappointing.
Though, in all fairness, if he has done that last year I wouldn’t be nearly as optimistic knowing those stats
Josh Phelps' debut makes way more sense now
Thanks Pikachu. I always wondered how he fell off the cliff so hard. He seemed so good at the time, turns out he was just really lucky.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
You're lucky
Those were some dark days to be a Jays fan.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Such a disappointment
Between him and Hinske, it really looked like we had something, and then neither took steps forward, they went backwards. That was year one of the Riccardi rebuild, and was some serious cause for optimistic that was never delivered. In hinsight, kind of a microcosm for the Riccardi years, really.
Nice article McCutcheonIsTheTruth
It is starting to look like Lawrie was the best pick in the ’08 draft if he can build on last year. So far, Buster Posey is the only other guy I would want from that draft.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I'm assuming
That you implicitly mean Bsuter Posey is the only guy other than than Lawrie you would want from that draft if you could only have one, because Hosmer would be a great fit a 1B
Yeah, that's what I meant
I’m not crazy about Hosmer, so I don’t get the love for him (Disclaimer: I hate the Royals, so I’m biased). Plus, 1B is easier to fill than C or 3B. I like their defensive edge over Hosmer.
Plus, Hosmer put up his biggest offensive numbers at Northwest Arkansa (notorious hitter’s park) in AA and in the PCL for AAA.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Hosmer's a guy with better tools than his numbers show
at least from what I hear
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Just curious, if you could have only one guy from the '08 draft, who would you guys take?
This is for MjwW and Pikachu, but anybody else feel free to jump in.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Posey before the injury
But if the choice is player health and ability now, Lawrie
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
I'll concur with this
Especially since it now seems like it’s possible/likely Posey will be moved off C long-term
No Tim Beckham love? lol.
Even if Posey sticks at C, I’d still prefer Lawrie, just because the Jays have depth at C and very little at 3B.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Sure
And if I’m the Rays, I take Posey over Lawrie 100 times out of 100 because I have Longoria at 3B.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I'm still surprised the Rays didn't take Posey that year
That must be the one move they kick themselves for.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I can understand the Orioles passing on Posey since they had Wieters
Alvarez at the time looked like the best hitting prospect so the Pirates’ choice made sense too. The Rays really needed a C but I guess SS was a position of need too.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
and I was sort of joking
just saying that “because I have X at position Y, I will not be drafting Z who plays Y” doesn’t make sense.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I can't agree with this philosophy
Depth has nothing to do with it, give me the best player period.
Also, apparently one place Posey could be moved is possibly 2B. Which happens to be an area of organizational weakness, at least beyond 2012 when KJ is a FA. So that turns that logic on its head anyway, since if Posey were an okay defensive 2B, the bat would be plenty above average
I'd have said Posey before the injury
right now, without knowing if he’s 100%, Lawrie.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
But
since I noticed your signature I must insist.. “McCutchen!” No ‘o’ :P
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 27, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Haha, sometimes I read a little too quickly
I have no idea where that “o” came from.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I hope Alvarez comes around for you guys too, I liked that pick at the time.
How is he defensively? I’ve always heard reports that he will move to 1B. Do you think the bat will play there?
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I think
he’s slightly underrated defensively but he will need to move to 1B eventually. Sure his bat can play there if he becomes the hitter I now hope he can be.
Dude will never hit .290/.380/.570 or so – what was expected coming out of college – but he can definitely do .255/.335/.500 or so with 30 bombs. Big year for him, and thus the Pirates future, this year.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 27, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
I think calling him the best player in the draft might be a stretch
But I like the optimism!
I would rank Posey and Eric Hosmer above him to be honest. Hosmer finished above 1 WAR at one of the best slugging positions in the game as a 21 year old and Posey finished 12th in the MVP voting in 2010.
I think Lawrie is def top 5.
I don't think there's any doubt at this point that Posey, Lawrie, and Hosmer are top 3
regardless of the ordering.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Yeah I might change that top 5 to top 3
But I still will take the 3 WAR catcher and the 1 WAR 1B (which IS impressive for a 21 year old) over Lawrie.
Lawrie would def. be my 3rd pick though (Hosmer being my first)
by Mike Andrew on Jan 27, 2012 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
If Eric Hosmer moved to 3B
He would have more WAR than Lawrie.
Hosmer is also more proven (played a full season).
I like Lawrie but not that much. I just looked up top MLB players under 25 and Lawrie is well below Hosmer and Posey (Who ranked 4th on one list?)
If Lawrie stuck at 2B and could be replacement level defensively I would put Lawrie much higher on my list. Or even if he moved back to C.
by Mike Andrew on Jan 27, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
he would? How?
Also, I don’t buy your argument that Hosmer is more proven. He wasn’t that good in 2011.
I just looked up top MLB players under 25
Where can I see this thing?
I expect Hosmer to be a much better hitter going forward, but he’s also a 1B, while Lawrie seems like at least a competent 3B for the foreseeable future, making their values pretty similar.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
OIC
you’re going by Law’s rankings. Okay, I’ll buy that. But that’s one evaluator.
Also, I can’t see how you can justify putting Posey 4th. No injury concerns? At all?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
And Snider is higher on that list than Rasmus
Doesn’t that seem a bit crazy?
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 28, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
And to clear that up
Lawrie is not well below Hosmer & Posey. 10th, 7th, and 4th (I highly disagree with that one, but we’ll let it pass) respectively.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I agree its just one
But he agrees with me, so my opinion isn’t as stupid as some of you guys are making it out to be.
I would not put Posey 4th on any top 50 under 25 lists. Maybe 15th? I disagree with that ranking but people smarter than me are putting him way higher than Lawrie.
My point is 3rd party player evaluators are nearly as high on Lawrie as you guys are. I think they are less biased and understand the effects of advanced scouting and the fact that what he did is unrepeatable.
I love Lawrie but there are tons of prospects who light up the MLB like its nothing and end up being Corey Patterson types. I would sign him to an extension just because of his walk percentage and stuff but him being the best in his draft? I think not.
If Eric Hosmer moved to 3B, he would have more WAR than Lawrie.
How do you know this? There’s a reason Hosmer doesn’t play third, it’s because presumably he would be a butcher. So, he would get a better positional adjustment, and have terrible defence rankings, which would maybe, at best, be a wash or create negative value (which is why they have him at 1st). Seriously, think about the implications of something you claim before claiming something ridiculous like this. You can’t just say, well, I like the bat better and so if he could play third like Lawrie, that’s more WAR.
If Lawrie stuck at 2B and could be replacement level defensively I would put Lawrie much higher on my list.
The positional adjustment for 2B is the exact same as 3B (+2.5 runs/150 games). In other words, the bat is equally valuable at 2B as 3B, so this doesn’t make sense
And just as an FYI
Assuming Lawrie is average defensively at third, and Hosmer average defensively at first, the positional adjustment is -12.5 compared to +2.5, Assuming 600 PAs, that’s a difference in wOBA of about 0.030, which is huge. That’s similar to the difference between 2011 Yunel Escobar and 2011 JP Arencibia
So, your telling me if Hosmer played out a full season at 3B with replacement level defense he wouldn’t have more WAR than Lawrie?
Hosmer is an elite bat and had .800 OPS at age 21.
All I’m trying to say is when you compare a 1B to a 3B you should consider comparing them without positional adjustments just to see pure offensive talent. That’s what I attempted to do. Hosmer had the better offensive season and if he played 3B he would be even higher on this top 50 under 25 list.
Corner IF typically have better bats then 2B, I don’t care what stats say.
first of all he wouldn't play replacement level defense
because he played really bad defense at 1B.
If he played 3B equally as well as he did 1B, he would still have less WAR than Lawrie.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
sample size still
I’m not saying he should move to 3B, but rather if you take positions out of it Hosmer is a better player.
Anybody who wants Lawrie over Hosmer is completely biased, I got Keith Law and various other scouts backing my argument.
Straw man?
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=432480
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/16/2113790/build-a-team-from-scratch
If you read the first post, its random fans from various organizations choosing between Lawrie and Hosmer, and I believe all of them chose Hosmer. Law chose Hosmer. On minor league ball, (one of the more intelligent fan bases out there) if you read the comments around 75% of the people exclude Lawrie from their 3B position yet Hosmer appears on almost every one.
I’m just saying if this was almost any other forum there would be people on my side, but since its a Blue Jay forum people disagree.
Eric Hosmer > Lawrie in 2008 and now. That’s just mainly opinion but its not like an insane stretch.
correct
before Brett Lawrie made a quantum leap in 2011 from a pretty good prospect to one of the best in baseball
and from first link
“if you could only have one for a utility position (so position eligibility not a big deal)”
which is not how baseball works
I know
But I’m just saying Hosmer is a better bat and overall prospect.
which you have not proven or demonstrated
except by one-season-old scouting reports and crowdsourcing
Fine
“I think Hosmer is a better prospect” – Mike Andrew
okay
“Hosmer is a horrible defender at the easiest position and did not hit as well in the Majors as did Brett Lawrie. Brett Lawrie profiles as an average or better defender at a somewhat easy position, and absolutely pummeled the PCL and MLB in his 450 or so plate appearances in 2011” – benk
Straw man?
And I’m not debating that he is elite especially as a prospect, but hes not on the slate for an MVP like some of you guys paint him.
of course
but that’s not what we’re discussing, right? I think Hosmer = Lawrie, and I could buy Hosmer > Lawrie, but you’re making it sound like Hosmer >>> Lawrie.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
If we had a fantasy draft
And there were 2 players, Lawrie and Hosmer, I’d choose Hosmer.
All I’m saying.
Okay so
2 teams are joining the league and there is a expansion draft and Lawries team has Beltre and Hosmers team has Joey Votto, so they decide to leave them off the protection list (cause they crazy) and the first pick goes to the New Jersey Floppers and they have to choose between Hosmer and Lawrie, I’m the GM of the Floppers and I choose Hosmer.
do whatever you want
but until you show me current scouting reports and data that show Hosmer had a better 2011 by any metric (qualitative but professional included) I will consider that viewpoint and maybe adjust mine accordingly
Okay, well he played 100+ games
And Lawrie played 43.
It is
Because the last 10 years of PCL batting champions have been complete bush. Sure good players go there but its still bush.
i didn't say batting champions, i said OPS leader
and the vast majority of OPS leaders are over age 25. very few players do as well as Lawrie did at his age. for example, in the top 25 OPS leaders last year there were two players age 23 and under: Lawrie (#1, age 21) and Ackley (#20 IIRC, age 23)
Just saying that success there means nothing
Nobody carved out a HOF career in AAA.
OPS at his age was impressive.
really?
because Lawrie is pretty likely to be a top 5 3B while Hosmer is more like top 10.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
3B is a much weaker position.
Not to mention FREAKING SAMPLE SIZE.
This is getting frustrating. Lawrie came up and dominated, but everybody jumped on the bandwagon way too quickly.
Mike
You cannot just throw out “sample size” every time you hear something you don’t like. The burden is on you to show how it’s relevant, and what it means
If Lawrie came up and hit .190/.220/.300
Everybody would be saying WE NEED TO GET A 3B IN FA, ROGERS TO SO CHEAP but I’d be saying “Chill, its just 43 games and hes a good prospect, we will see”
But the opposite happened, and people think hes a top 5 3B in the league.
I'm not disagreeing that fans overreact
But here’s the thing…plenty of 21 year olds come up and struggle, it’s not out of the ordinary. That’s why you don;t panic. But a much smaller % of 21 years come up and rake, which is why people are excited
But still its 43 games?
If he has like a 4 hit game his average just shoots up. He also struggled towards the end of his season.
yes
and in those 43 games, he was exceptional.
you also can’t cover your ears and say “SSS” and then say “but in his last 10 games he struggled”
I understand that but clearly everybody refuses to ignore the exceptional 43 game stretch so I decided to throw in the fact that he ended his stretch in a doubt. He was only really hot for like 20 games.
But good point, both are SSS
why would we ignore it?
why would we ignore it if he hit .200/.220/.300?
him doing exceptionally is a better indicator of good future performance than if he did poorly, so we are using it. and okay, he was hot for 20 games, but he was flat out ridiculous for those 20 games. it’s just as unfair to ignore those 20 than it is to pretend the 43 games in total don’t matter at all
Alright, here's some math
Lawrie had a wOBA of .413 in 171 PAs…that means the standard deviation of his wOBA is 0.041. That means the 95th confidence intervalof his true talent (+/-2 std devs) is .331 to .495.
Likewise, Hosmer had a wOBA of .342 in 563 PAs, meaning a standard deviation of 0.021. This means the 95% confidence interval of his true talent is .299 to .383.
The interpretation of this is, there is about a 20% chance that Hosmer was actually a better hitter than Lawrie in 2011 (and Lawrie was just luckier in the sampler sample). So, your argument that Hosmer was better doesn;t hold water.
And don;t throw out “sample size” again, because this accounts for the sample size – the uncertainty around Lawrie’s numbers are much higher, as you can see, but it’s accunted for
by MjwW on Jan 28, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
SSS mean a lot more when they actually show signs of abnormality
Lawrie didn’t have much of that.
His BABIP was ~.300
His HR/FB was a bit high, so you can expect his power to drop a bit.
Overall, his numbers shouldn’t drop all that much in 2012.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
The thing is, we can't really make some of those inferences
Unlike pitchers, batters can sustain BABIPs quite far away from league average. Same thing with HR/FB ratio….weak hitters like have very low rates, Baustista is close to double the average rate, that doesn’t mean it’s unsustainable.
The interesting thing is, and what I think you were getting at, is that Lawrie put up really good numbers without crazy high BABIP and power, meaning you don’t have to count on him sustaining high rates which very players are capable of.
Lawrie didn't have an elite batted ball line though
he’s got great power (so it seems) so he can likely sustain a high HR/FB, but his LD rate wasn’t very good. he’s also fast, so that helps, but he doesn’t (and will hopefully continue to not) hit lots of grounders, so it doesn’t help that much. again, his BABIP wasn’t crazily out of line with what was expected, and a quick BABIP regression to (LD rate 120) he’d still be on pace for a 150 wRC (!)
and his IFFB rate was fairly high (around 13%)
but even with a BABIP of .275 he’d be at 143 wRC+ – plenty of power, good speed, and a nice K:BB ratio does that for you :)
And by the way
The guy who started this thread, and posted the original article is a Pirate fan, so not a Blue Jay homer bandwagon jumper.
Hes been on this forum long enough
To be considered a Jays fan. I quite like him mind you, but hes a Pirates/Jays fan.
Or is that impossible? Hes been posting for what 2 months now?
I won't speak for him
But I don’t believe that’s really true. At one point in another thread, he said he liked the Rays just as much
Either way he knows our system and although hes obviously very intelligent
He has some bias. Everybody has bias, I have bias you have bias, heck even Benk has some bias.
Whether its towards certain players (me with Thames) or him with Lawrie, people are excited which is good but man are we over excited. I would still draft Hosmer, just as Law would probably.
I’m just trying to say I’m not completely flat out stupid for making that choice, other people would say the same.
Look
I don’t necessarily agree that Lawrie is the best player. I think it’s way too early to make these kind sof conclusions. What I disagree with, is when you come in, statement something with 100% certainty, and refuse to accept objective facts and evidence. You’ve made up your mind, that’s fine, you think Lawrie is vastly overrated, you’re entitled. But then both bother trying to have a discussion on the facts. Just say it’s an opinion, and leave it.
Lawrie is vastly overrated
The consensus among Jays fans (especially the less active population, in terms of following the team) is that hes the next Pujols.
I state my opinion with 100% certainty because its obviously what I believe is right. If nobody wanted to share opinions this site would be useless.
Hosmer over Lawrie.
I can pretty much guarantee
that no one – ESPECIALLY not me nor MjwW – has said Lawrie is the next Pujols. and even if Lawrie is “only” the next David Wright, what does that make Hosmer?
Lawrie is a 2-4 WAR player next year
In my eyes.
Hosmer is drawing comparisons to Joey Votto.
Fight Bias with Bias?
And try and read the Buster Olney quotes, from inside the quotes.
Didn’t you just admit your biased?
I never knew Buster was a Royals fan, you must have some inside info here
by Mike Andrew on Jan 29, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
That article is also from May
Before Hosmer and Lawrie played in MLB. The reality is, Lawrie’s stock has risen significantly ver that time period among objective observers.
A fair post
I’ll give it to you, I agree.
But doesn’t that also prove that people are biased based on his performance? Usually you give the first few months of somebodies MLB career “off”
Why are bringing a fantasy discussion into this?
Fantasy baseball value has about as much to do with real baseball value as what the Jays do to basketball…it’s irrelevant
"if you take the positions out of it"
Okay. But you know baseball doesn’t work like that.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
...Hosmer had the better offensive season?
SSS for Lawrie of course, but Lawrie had 71 points of wOBA (153 points of OPS) on Hosmer. not close.
I just think its completely unfair to compare a complete season by one 21 year old
To a 43 game stretch by another 21 year old.
I don’t mean to come off the wrong way I just am having 3 debates at once.
and leading the PCL in OPS at 21 doesn't matter?
while playing SUBSTANTIALLY better defense at a tougher position?
Better defense but not saying much, I consider Lawrie to be around average defensively
And David Cooper lead the league in average, while being 3 years older (so not as impressive).
I watch minor league games and Lawrie makes them exciting.
Okay
But hes 21 and actually had a sample size.
If we gave Lawrie a full season I bet his fielding becomes more average and we discover some holes in him.
Otherwise yes, I agree he is Pujols/MVP at 22/HOF bound like you say.
this is a friggin ridiculous argument
stop putting words in my mouth or I am not continuing this conversation.
You used 2 straw men
And I used 1?
Don’t i get to use 1 more to make thing even?
“anyone who disagrees with Keith Law is biased”
mmkay
Nice quote on me. Too bad I never said that, you used an informal fallacy.
you said this
“Anybody who wants Lawrie over Hosmer is completely biased, I got Keith Law and various other scouts backing my argument.”
I am disagreeing with Keith Law and wanting Lawrie over Hosmer, that means I’m biased.
informal fallacy?
When you misrepresent another persons position in an argument?
basically yes
you said A (want hosmer over Lawrie) = B (biased) because Keith Law likes him. I rearranged the terms, I didn’t create a fallacy.
Corner IF typically have better bats then 2B, I don’t care what stats say
Okay, well, sicne you’ve already made-up your mind, facts be damned, there isn’t much of a conversation to be had here. You realize that makes you just as bad as the people you’re criticizing in other posts who don’t bother to inform themselves and just complain about Rogers not spending money. Hey, you know what, Ryan Howard has more RBI than Bautista last year, so he was a better run producing offesnive player. I don’t care what any other stats say.
Oh, and by the way, don;t think I didn’t notice the way you tried to switch what I said. I wasn’t talking about positional adjustments for corner IF (1B + 3B), I was talking about 3B vs. 2B. So don’t twist what I said.
Hosmer is an elite bat and had .800 OPS at age 21.
So did Lawrie!
Hosmer had the better offensive seasonHosmer put up 11.5 batting runs above average in 563 PA (per Fangraphs), Lawrie was worth 13.2 in 171. So even if you assumed that Lawrie’s bat would just have been league average had he played all those extra ABs, his age 21 offensive year was better. So your statement is patently false.
All I’m trying to say is when you compare a 1B to a 3B you should consider comparing them without positional adjustments just to see pure offensive talent.
That’s a fine exercise, if that’s what you’re trying to do. But this article was about the best player, not the best hitter. Defense and run prevention matters, or every team would just put together a line-up full of the best hitters.
Fine,
2B equally as good bats at 3B? I know thats a straw man but that’s how I’m understanding it?
Lawrie did over 43 games, people are blowing his small success way out of proportion. Suddenly hes a 4 WAR player?
Sample size?
I know positional adjustments are important, but I’d rather a 4 WAR 1B than a 4 WAR 3B, because I think its harder to find a 1B who can positionally compete for 4 WAR.
2B equally as good bats at 3B? I know thats a straw man but that’s how I’m understanding it?
That’s exactly what I’m saying, basically.
In 2011, across MLB:
2B: .260/.320/.389
3B: .252/.317/.390
In 2010:
2B: .265/.330/.389
3B: .265/.324/.418
So very similar. I could keep going back further, but the trend is clear.
As for your points about only doing it over 43 games, sure, there’s a big caveat in terms of projecting forward. But it doesn’t change the fact that that’s what he actually did.
As for your sample size thing on the third point, as I said, if you assume that Lawrie would only have been a league hitter hitter for the difference in ABS (in other words, a much lower level of performance than what he actually did, or what he projects at), he’s still better. Quit just throwing out “sample size” like it’s a blanket explanation to everything, it’snot, and it’s annoying when people do that.
I know positional adjustments are important, but I’d rather a 4 WAR 1B than a 4 WAR 3B, because I think its harder to find a 1B who can positionally compete for 4 WAR.
You’re entitled to think whatever you want, but it doesn’t make it fact. The fact is, it’s not, because there’s a lot of guys who can hit but can’t field well, so they’re relegated to 1B. This is exactly what the WAR framework accounts for.
Okay I get the first part now
Thats a reasonable argument and I can’t beat that.
Second part I still think Hosmer, I think WAR isn’t always perfect.
My two cents
I’ll take the guy who is younger, plays better defence, runs the bases better, plays the more valuable position, was the better hitter last year.
You can be optimistic on Hosmer’s bat and pessimistic on Lawrie’s, but I don’t know why in particular we ought to think so. Hosmer has to outhit Lawrie by a significant margin to be more valuable.
fwiw- projections
ZiPS:
Lawrie: 119 OPS+
Hosmer: 123 OPS+
Bill James:
Lawrie: .361 wOBA
Hosmer: .369 wOBA
Rotochamp:
Lawrie: .386 wOBA
Hosmer: .351 wOBA
Fangraphs Fan Projections:
Lawrie: .377 wOBA
Hosmer: .374 wOBA
Very close for 3, a big gap in favour of Lawrie from Rotochamp, not sure why.
so basically
if Lawrie is a below average defender at third (basically nothing in 2011 to suggest that) and Hosmer is a well above average defender at first (basically nothing in 2011 to suggest that either) then they’re equally valuable, based on those projections
So Hosmer is the better bat according to
Bill James, ZiPS but according to fans and some other site I never heard of, Lawrie is better. Note that Hosmers 2011 numbers were lower due to him playing a full season.
Isnt the Fangraphs in comparison to Bill James proof of how overrated Lawrie is?
I think Lawrie will have a great year but nobody should be expecting any Silver Slugger.
"Note that Hosmers 2011 numbers were lower due to him playing a full season."
that’s an assumption, not a fact
Thats an assumption about an assumption
not fact?
So (by all means this is NOT MEANT TO BE A STRAW MAN BUT IT MAY SOUND LIKE ONE) are you trying to say that a full season of .300 isnt better than 43 games of .301?
Like seriously, if you want to count 43 games against 100+ games shouldnt i be able to hand pick 43 games out of Hosmers 100+ game season?
and furthermore
Lawrie’s 43 are not cherrypicked. they are the entire sample we have. we didn’t pick and choose Lawrie’s 43 best games. I’m really close to just ending this conversation because you must be ignoring data at this point
So Hosmer is the better bat according to Bill James, ZiPS but according to fans and some other site I never heard of, Lawrie is better
The margin for Bill James and ZIPS are pretty miniscule, to the point that most would agree that the two will be pretty darn close this season for OPS and wOBA, if they both follow projection.
However, those stats are only hitting. Defence can be argued, but baserunning and position both indicate that Lawrie will be much better.
I know positional adjustments are important, but I’d rather a 4 WAR 1B than a 4 WAR 3B, because I think its harder to find a 1B who can positionally compete for 4 WAR.
Only 2 3rd baseman had over 4 WAR last season, Longo and Beltre. In fact, the best 3rd baseman in the NL was Ramirez with a 3.6.
There were 6 1st Baseman with 4 WAR last seaon, Cabrerra, Votto, Gonzalaz, Fielder, Pujols, and Tex.
It seems to me that a 4 WAR 3rd Baseman would be much harder to find than a 4 WAR 1st Baseman.
There She Gooooooes!
In addendum, if Lawrie put up 4 WAR last season (ie played the whole season), he would pretty much be an all star for sure, and better than any 3rd Baseman in the NL
There She Gooooooes!
Zimmerman only had a 2.5 WAR.
Wright had a 1.9.
Heck, Lawrie has a 2.7 in his few games, better than both.
To be fair, if you go to Fangraphs Leaderboards, and select all players (as opposed to qualified leaders), then ARod and Sandoval were over the 4 WAR mark. That was my bad on Fangraphs site navigation.
In that case, we need to also then add Napoli to the 1b list. So there were 7 4WAR+ 1st basemen, and 4 4WAR+ 3rd baseman. Point still stands.
There She Gooooooes!
wasn't 2011 kind of an anomaly
in that the 3Bs were all so bad/so injured? I feel like it was. Wright and Zimmerman were bad, Youk and ARod were injured…
Fair Enough. I was going for a 3rd base-1st base comparison. I will dig deeper. Gimme 10 min.
There She Gooooooes!
Yep, you are right. Going back 5 seasons, there have been 34 season that a 3B got 4WAR+, and 35 Seasons where a 1b got 4WAR+.
So, my assumption that a 4WAR 3rd baseman is harder to find was wrong, however…
I’d rather a 4 WAR 1B than a 4 WAR 3B, because I think its harder to find a 1B who can positionally compete for 4 WAR.
was as equally incorrect.
We all learned something today ;)
There She Gooooooes!
Now take w/OBA of the two positions and tell me which one
Is higher? Its much harder to obtain 4 WAR as a 1B than any other position.
A 4 WAR 1B is like .300/.350/.480 and a 4 WAR CF is like .260/.320/.450. Of course that is two ends of the spectrum.
My point is if you had to try and acquire a 4 WAR 1B is would cost a lot because he would be a true slugger.
by Mike Andrew on Jan 29, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
no it's not
because 1Bs are worse defensively but better at hitting. it’s very hard to find a defender good enough to play 3B but also be a very good hitter. when you do, you get a player like Evan Longoria.
you know how WAR works, Mike. you’re much smarter than this argument.
I know WAR uses positional adjustments
But I’m saying if you take those out, and make it an even playing fiend with just bats, Hosmer is better.
I consider 1B the hardest position to play in baseball just due to the strength of the position as a whole.
I feel like there is a massive failute to communicate/understand here
I’m taking one less crack, and then I’m out for good.
Baseball is just not about hitting. If it were, you could field a line-up of Prince Fielders, and bash your opponents in oblivion.
Unfortunately, in reality, a line-up of Prince Fielders would severely impair the ability to prevent runs – there is a good reason Prince Fielder doesn’t catch or play SS!!!
So, maybe Hosmer will be a better pure hitter than Lawrie, maybe not (I’m not willing to concede the point). But that aside, defense matters, and Lawrie is far better at preventing runs, in the sense that he can competently field 3B and Hosmer can’t. For that, he is given a positional adjustment in the WAS calculation to reflect this.
As a result of this superior ability to prevent runs, Lawrie does not have to have as good a bat to be equally as valuable as Hosmer as an overall ballplayer. Or, put differently, if Hosmer and Lawrie end having equally good bats, and Lawrie can play an average defensive 3B, and Hosmer an average 1B, Lawrie is more valuable. This is a simple fact, not conjecture. And if you can’t, or won’t, acknowledge this, then it’s simply your own bias, and nothing else.
I'm going to play the agree to disagree card
I may be wrong but not in my eyes and my opinion isn’t changing. Instead of wasting your time and mine I’ll just call it.
Nice post though it got me thinking.
by Mike Andrew on Jan 30, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Glad you're thinking about it
But this is not an agree to disagree situation – that is appropriate when there is a difference of opinion, not when there’s a difference between facts being true and false. But yeah, any more is futile.
It sort of validates the positional adjustment part of WAR.
In theory, if the positional adjustments are correct, it should be equally hard to find any 4 WAR player for any position. Or stated another way, there should be an equal number of 4 WAR players for each position for all positions.
Of course, practically, the numbers are going to fluctuate up and down, but enough seasons should smooth that out.
That is where WAR is wrong though
It makes it easier to compare players of different positions, but in this discussion I’m trying to say who the better ball player is. (currently).
This argument will be much easier in a year.
See my other response above
The better ballplayer is not just the better hitter, because baseball i about both scoring and preventing runs, and position players are invloved in both sides (though to varying degrees – totally responsible for run scoring, partially responsible for run prevention).
This has nothing to with WAR being wrong, since its positional adjustments are (reasonably) accurate. I don’t know why you are sticking to this ridiculous line of arguments (and I don’t mean to be rude, but this reasoning is completely counter to the facts)
I'm not even 100% convinced
that Hosmer is even a better hitter than Lawrie, let alone ball player. but unless Hosmer is orders of magnitude better at hitting than Lawrie is – which I find extraordinarily unlikely – Lawrie has at least a good chance of being a better all-around ball player.
Orders of magnitude is a bit strong
15 runs positional difference is something like 0.030 points of wOBA, which is significant but not massive. As I said to him above, I don’t concede the point that Hosmer is better, though I accept the possibility. That said, Lawrie was a better hitter in 2011, with something like 80% certainty as a detailed above a couple days back, at a similar age.
This will make everyone feel better.
BAUTISTA – MVP
LAWRIE – SILVER SLUGGER
PLAYOFFS!!!!1
There She Gooooooes!
I don't think any of the 3 are happening
This year anyways.
by Mike Andrew on Jan 29, 2012 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
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