Best, most Rational Comment of the Prince signing I've read yet

On Tangotiger's blog, there was a thread about the size of teh overpay on the Prince Fielder contract. MGL is Mitchel Lichtman, co-author of "the Book" with Tom Tango and Andrew Dolphin. (the entire thread is interesting, but MGL hit the nail on the head with the linked comment.

4 months ago bluejaysstatsgeek 17 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

It's incredible really

I have a background in economics, and at the core of economics (nd by extension, most economic models) is a belief in rational actors, and rational decision making. Now, I am not naive enough to believe that all markets are perfect, that market participants are robotic homo economicus who make well-thought out decisions carefully weighing costs and benefits, etc etc etc. But in aggregate, the empirical evidence shows that in most situations, especially in assuming markets in aggregate, it’s a fair assumption.

In this case, we have a market characterized by participants with significant market power (on both sides) and highly maagement and players with specific skills. The incentive to seek out information and make good decisions is very high, with millions and in some cases hundreds of millions of dollars on the line. And yet, some teams do not seem to understand or consider fairly basic information that is widel available and free. It’s astounding.

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 2:02 AM EST reply actions

*Highly paid management and employees (players)

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 2:03 AM EST up reply actions

The last paragraph on comment #6 really hit me

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 27, 2012 2:36 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, that one is interesting

Especially where he says there are still GMs not as smart as Jim Bowden. What a frightening thought, unless AA has their numbers on speed dial.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 9:40 AM EST up reply actions

Why do you think we've done three deals with Chicago in th past 6 months?

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

Ned Colletti was the first GM that sprang to mind about being not as smart as Bowden

Kenny Williams is a mystery to me. I can’t decide whether he’s stupid or crazy.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

Both?

by MjwW on Jan 27, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

haha, that's probably the right answer

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Jan 27, 2012 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

25 Years Ago...

…while doing PhD course work, I questioned the the assumption of rationality that unpins most of economic thought. I was told to abandon that line of thinking or else I wouldn’t be able to form a committee. I still believe that one person’s rationality is viewed by others as ridiculousness.

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jan 27, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

Can we get MGL to post here?

thisrighthere!

http://www.facebook.com/Bluebirdbanter

by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 27, 2012 10:26 AM EST reply actions

Pound-for-pound the best deal in MLB.

by hoph on Jan 27, 2012 3:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

We have a new stat...

…$/BMI

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jan 27, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

I hate how Toronto media has posted Rogers as bad owners

I hate Rogers because everybody loves to hate big companies that charge them money BUT they aren’t bad owners.
They forget that:
a) Rogers has never blocked a request for money from AA
and b) It was AA’s decision not to go after Fielder, not Rogers
AND c) Rogers have gone after more marquee FA’s than AA (before AA said no)

I bet in the end AA will get fired because Rogers wants to stop ruining their image (Toronto Media has gone crazy after we let Fielder sign elsewhere, not to mention the crazy terms).

If you disagree with the direction the Jays are going then for an anti-AA group or something, because its his plan everybody is following, not Rogers.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 27, 2012 10:02 PM EST reply actions

I just watch Moneyball again...

…and I was thinking that AA is just like Peter Brand’s character: “I know what the guy’s worth, and that’s the most I’m willing to pay.” This is not “small market” baseball management; this is smart baseball management.

Rogers, being a public corporation, cannot be like Mike Ilitch and overpay. They have a fiduciary responsibility to make sound business decisions. Ilitch’s overpay may be huge, but at 84, there is a significant chance that by the time regret sets in, he’ll be dead and buried and unable to shed a tear over it.

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jan 28, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

I'm AA's biggest fan

I’m just saying if you don’t like the direction, form anti-AA groups on FB and tweet your little hearts out about how much he stinks but Rogers doesn’t deserve the blame. If Rogers feels like AA is ruining their image I would imagine either AA or Rogers is out, regardless of if Beeston loves AA or not.

If we want 120M to compete with 200M, we need to spend smarter than the other clubs, grow our own and sign cheap extensions to buy out some FA years of some of our more talented players (sign deals within the next few years with Lawrie, Snider etc.). and maybe adding the odd Fielder overpay (assuming its under 5 years) in years where we think we have a solid shot at contention.

What I think happened is that the media and general fans have tasted some success and have some exciting pieces on the team and think that NOW is the time to go for it. I would much rather build up our foundation another couple years, then turn to FA for help.

My main beef is just if you don’t like the direction of the club, then blame AA. Its not Rogers being cheap, they can afford to after marquee FA and have tried to in the past not to mention continually promise to pay more down the road. Its AA who is telling Rogers to hold back on the spending. So have a beef with AA, not Rogers. (I don’t like Rogers as a company but I sure do like them as owners).

Makes me angry that the average joe conversation about the Jays now involves Rogers being cheap and not signing Fielder to a more stupid contract than the Tigers.

by Mike Andrew on Jan 28, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe I'm reading you wrong...

…but it seems like you’re disagreeing with me when we’re actually saying the same thing. I support AA and the way he’s managing the team and payroll and building a strong foundation.

I also think that Rogers actually has one of the highest ROI/WAR ratios in MLB, due to their media properties, and will be quite prepared to make that investment when the time is right. Suppose in mid-July, the Jays are within a couple of games of a playoff position, then the marginal value of a win could be quite high, and if the right player(s) come available at the right price, AA will make the moves. Remember that AA said he intends for the Jays to be like a freight train that keeps coming and coming, year after year. The plan is to build an organization that has the depth of talent to be a contender every year, not just for a few years.

It is an exciting time to be a Jays fan.

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jan 30, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions