Make Your Predictions: Dustin McGowan
by Tom Dakers on Jan 29, 2012 1:23 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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Here's one that is impossible to guess what he might do. I never figured he would pitch in the majors again. Just getting into some games last year was a great thing. This year we need him to do more than 'just pitch'.
Dustin was a first round draft pick back in 2000 and he was starting to put things together, as a major league starter, when the injuries started. He would get a good number of strikeouts, walk a few more than you might like but there was a lot of potential there. How much of it is left if an open question.
He looked to be throwing as hard as ever last year. I have no idea if he is more likely than the average pitcher to have more arm troubles, in the future. I imagine the Jays will be being very careful with him.
| Year | Age | Tm | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | HBP | WP | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 23 | TOR | 1 | 3 | 6.35 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 45.1 | 49 | 32 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 71 | 1.456 | 9.7 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 2.00 |
| 2006 | 24 | TOR | 1 | 2 | 7.24 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 27.1 | 35 | 22 | 2 | 25 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 64 | 2.195 | 11.5 | 0.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 0.88 |
| 2007 | 25 | TOR | 12 | 10 | 4.08 | 27 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 169.2 | 146 | 77 | 14 | 61 | 144 | 2 | 13 | 110 | 1.220 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 2.36 |
| 2008 | 26 | TOR | 6 | 7 | 4.37 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 111.1 | 115 | 54 | 9 | 38 | 85 | 5 | 5 | 97 | 1.374 | 9.3 | 0.7 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 2.24 |
| 2011 | 29 | TOR | 0 | 2 | 6.43 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21.0 | 20 | 15 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 67 | 1.571 | 8.6 | 1.7 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 1.54 |
| 5 Seasons | 20 | 24 | 4.80 | 80 | 60 | 3 | 1 | 374.2 | 365 | 200 | 36 | 154 | 305 | 17 | 31 | 92 | 1.385 | 8.8 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 1.98 | ||
Bill James figures him to go 5-7, with a 4.50 ERA in 20 starts, 112 innings, 59 walks, 97 strikeouts. Guessing 20 starts seems like hedging your bets.
Me? I'll going to guess 25 starts, 10 relief appearances, with the team limiting him to 180 innings. 10-8, 4.30 ERA, 150 strikeouts, 65 walks. I'm hoping for the happy ending.
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If this were a Hollywood Universe
22-8, 34 Starts, 208IP, 164H, 2.51 ERA, 190Ks, 65BB
However, in reality universe
8-5, 22 Starts, 134IP, 124H, 4.15ERA, 120K, 64BB
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 29, 2012 1:40 PM EST reply actions
HOLLYWOOD HOLLYWOOD HOLLYWOOD
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by dannyofbosnia on Jan 29, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Take this to the bank!
22 starts, 150 IP, 8-8, 135K and 65BB.
More specifically a 255. BAA with 4.18 ERA.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 29, 2012 1:56 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Fingers Crossed
It sure would be great if this were the feel-good story of 2012 – something like the Shawn Hill resurrection we all hoped for that never quite happened. In reality, what happens if McGowan doesn’t pitch effectively enough to make the opening day rotation? Is there enough room in an already crowded bullpen? Can the Jays send him down without exposing him to waivers? If he isn’t 100% ready to hold down that #5 spot when the team breaks camp, will he have a stint on the DL to open the season to buy some time?
My prediction: 15 starts, 15 relief appearances, 100 innings, 4.7 ERA. Considering what he has gone thru, this would be an OK comeback. The most important thing is that he gets thru the season without major setbacks; wins and ERA are secondary.
Last Chance Saloon Then ...
I recall that the Nats DFA’ed Shawn Hill during Spring Training 2009 after signing him to a new 1 year contract. This nullified the contract he had signed and Nats didn’t owe him a penny. Hope McGowan doesn’t have any setbacks during Spring Training.
I believe this is all aspirational
He will be the 5th starter, which I respect AA and Farrell, however, this will be his last year for the TBJs , unless he is a .500 pitcher or better.
Youth must be served
You're going to base his future on his W-L record?
Harsh.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I dont see them DFAing him...no way
AA has proven that if he thinks a player can even be an ok 5th starter(Mcgowan has already proved it in limited time last year)—he will carry him and give him starts to build up his value. If hes healthy—he’s playing. 2 words—Jo-Jo Reyes
McGowan
I have never really understood the fascination with McGowan, he’s never put up good numbers. I suppose he is a high ceiling guy as a fifth starter, and he’s easy to cheer for, but I’ve never seen the results.
by bluenose bluebird on Jan 29, 2012 2:06 PM EST reply actions
he's a first round draft pick, who has really only had one full season in the majors.
Judging him by majors numbers is not much value. He’s one of those guys that you had to watch to see the potential.
I blog, therefore I am.
That season was 5 years ago.
Is there really any reason to be optimistic at this point?
He’s pitched 56 innings since 2008. Yikes.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
as he said you have to watch him
he has the ability to miss a lot of bats, he can and will be very good. I have faith.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 29, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Can and WILL?!
When was the last time any watched him be any good?
Wait I know the answer: Some random start 4 years ago.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
McGowan’s line on September 21st against the Angels: 5.0 IP, 5 hits, 2 ER, 8 K, 0 BB. His consistency is more of an issue than his ability.
by scrambles the death dealer on Jan 29, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Fair is fair.
That is good. Better if it was a quality start, though.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
It was done in 79 pitches, but it would have been nice if he got himself a QS.
by scrambles the death dealer on Jan 29, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
Scratch that last bit
I’m not a McGowan hater. That was a legit good start. I don’t know how anyone can have confidence in him, though.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I agree. I really don’t see him being an above average 5th starter, but in the off chance that he gets his act together, he could be very good.
by scrambles the death dealer on Jan 29, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno
average 5th starter only needs to put up like 4.7 or so ERA… I wouldn’t say McGowan is super likely to be better than that, but it’s certainly possible
Is that really the average 5th starter?
Seems really bad. Glad I’m a Rays fan.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
the average 5th starter is really bad though
it really is more like the 5th/6th starter though.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
it was an estimate
but back in like 2008 when run scoring was about .4 runs higher than in the current environment, an average 5th starter was (IIRC) over 5 ERA
you make a fair point
really, it’s a lot more “hope” than “confidence” at this point. I certainly wouldn’t be happy handing him the ball in Game 7, but hopefully he can be a decent pitcher. it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he’s reasonably effective, it’s just probably not likely
because his sideburns have an affect on people
i don’t know what answer you are trying to fish for. I amoung others, are impressed when he gets on that mound, he has electric stuff, and could turn into a very good pitcher.
Sue me for having optimism go ahead, i got a good lawyer!
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 29, 2012 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
never put up good numbers?
that’s why he put up nearly 7 WAR in a season and a half during his age 25 and 26 seasons
Yeah, his 2007 was nice.
2008 was meh.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Kind of hard to be good when you rip up your rotator cuff.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 29, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
depends on how you look at his season
overall his production was meh. Not enough IP obviously. If you only look at pure performance during the time he pitched he was good.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
.7 rWAR.
WAR for pitchers is weird, and I don’t necessarily trust it to show how good a pitcher was.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
rWAR measures a lot of things a pitcher didn't really have control over
but it’s up to you how much faith you put into stats
Looking at his stats, do you think if he played a full season in 2008,
McGowan would’ve been legitimately worth about 4 WAR?
It just seems high to me.
I’m not saying I think the rWAR is right. I’m just showing how weird WAR is. It depends on the site, and probably none are really good. Best practice might be to average them.
Looking at fWAR, in 2011, Hellickson was worth 1.4 in 189 IP. Lackey was worth 1.5 in 160 IP.
Is that a system you’d like to trust when evaluating pitchers?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
I'm actually torn between the two, I understand why people like each one
averaging the two sounds good to me
Yea the fascination with McGowan was his potential as an ace preinjury. If you love Morrow you would have loved McGowan. His stuff was (hopefully still is) FILTHY.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
William of Nassau am I, of Dutch blood. Loyal to the fatherland I will remain until I die.
by Redonred on Jan 29, 2012 2:22 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Can't fanshot on mobile:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/29/2756318/bud-selig-expanded-mlb-playoffs-2012
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
William of Nassau am I, of Dutch blood. Loyal to the fatherland I will remain until I die.
by Redonred on Jan 29, 2012 2:27 PM EST via Android app reply actions
posted a while ago
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 29, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
Out of options and will be 30
How much IP limit and restraint will there really be? Might the Jays take his arm as far as it will go?
He'll get the benefit of the doubt and make the rotation
I want to say:
22 GS, 155 IP, 125 K, 68 BB, 4.00 ERA.
But his 2011 results aren’t that encouraging, though I thought his stuff looked good, so who knows…
If you're going to give him the benefit of the doubt to make the rotation
I think you need to do the same when looking at his 2011 results. Keep in mind how long its been since he’s pitched in the big leagues. In fact I don’t think he even pitched in that many actual games in the minors before being called up
Still, I’m keeping my expectations low. Anything even the slightest bit good we get from Dustin is a bonus imo
yeah, true
but I think one of the main reasons for him making the rotation is because he’s out of options, not to mention all the patience the Jays have already shown.
Very hard to say
Can he regain his form? That really is the big question. I think AA doesnt want another Carpenter situation, but if he is willing to take a chance on Dustin why not sign Francis or Harden?
Neither are on the 40 man roster, McGowan is.
I’d rather take a chance on a fragile hard thrower than a fragile soft tosser like Francis.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 29, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
His form looked fine last September
It’s his durability and whether or not his shoulder holds up that are in question.
Bring one in on a minor league contract then
Seeing as signing a proven SP like Oswalt is a dirty word under the AA regime, why not bring guys like Francis or Harden? Harden looked very good the last time I saw him pitch against the Jays.
first of all, Francis already signed a minor league deal with the Reds
second, we don’t know if the Jays haven’t already offered them a minor league contract. The other side also has to agree to sign.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Didnt know Francis had signed with the Reds
This is a very shaky rotation, when you get past Romero. Who knows what AA has done or offered. I just think before this team can get close to the big 3 in the east they are 2 SP’s away from challenging. I would love to see the Jays pick up Harden or Oswalt, but after how this off-season has went I doubt it will happen.
Really?
How are all those young pitchers (and McGowan) going to get innings if you want to keep signing oft injured guys like Francis and Harden?
It’s not like the Jays are going to be in “contention.”
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 29, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Best way is to let them battle it out
If the Jays had Romero, Morrow and Oswalt, you have 2 spots open. That is more then enough for what guys like McGowan, Drabek, Cecil and Alvarez showed last year.
And what would do to the two pitchers that don’t make it into the two remaining spots?
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 29, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Lets see
Drabek and Cecil keep getting hit hard New Hampshire or Las Vegas
wait
you think signing Harden would fix this “shaky” rotation? You do understand he hasn’t passed 100 IP (in the majors) for the past 2 years, right? I get Oswalt, but Harden?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Read my post
I said sign him to minor league deal and see he what he has left. McGowan hasnt had many innings in 5 years, yet he is penciled in as a starter. Makes no more sense to give McGowan a spot based on 20 unimpressive innings, then it does to bring Harden in on a mino league contract.
right
but again, we have no idea if the Jays already offered him a minor league deal or not.
I don’t exactly agree with McGowan getting the starter job. I’d rather Drabek, but whatever.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I think Drabek would have to do quite a bit better than McGowan in ST to get on the rotation given McG’s lack of remaining options
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 29, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
You don't let that kind of talent walk away for nothing
By all accounts, McGowan is healthy again and hasn’t lost his stuff. Why cut him loose? At the very least you can throw him in the pen as the 7th man.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I agree
I really like the job AA has done, this is the strongest farm system in the MLB. This is incredible, considering the mess JP left the farm system in. Any GM will make mistakes ( AA shipping Napli away). My biggest concern with AA is his inability to sign FA’s. In his 3 years Darren Oliver at what 4.5 milion is his biggest FA signing. With this rotation, when the Jays are playing well they will win 4 or 5 series in a row normaly taking 2 out of 3 games. This rotation is just not capable of taking the Jays on a 9 or 10 game winning streak. I just think that AA needs to look at signing FA’s at times instead of putting all his hope in the farm system.
Whatever the reason
Fa’s are not coming to Toronto
Rats, sox and Yankees
they consitently go on better streaks then the Jays. Be it a 9 or 10 game winning streak or winning 20 out of 25. Jays right now just dont do that.
Well they must have gone on some streaks
Considering they went into the final weekend battling for a playoff spot
by mugisha2009 on Jan 30, 2012 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
and somehow
that makes them better than a team that instead just went on a 90-72 streak for the whole season?
lol @Rats
literally lol’d
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
quite a weak point
It does nothing but support my arguement nice try though
by mugisha2009 on Jan 30, 2012 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
well, at least the Red Sox did
you’re 1/3. That’s really good!
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 29, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, the Jays had a 6 game W streak, which bests the Rays
but only one other 5 game streak.
The Rays had six 5 game streaks.
The Yankees had one 6-, 7-, and 8-games winning streak, but no more 5+ game streaks.
The Red Sox had one 9-,7-, and 6- game streaks, two 5-game streaks.
This guy you’re arguing with may struggle to make his point clear, but their is evidence from the previous season that the main competition in the division was better at stringing together a decent number of wins on more of a regular basis than the Jays.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
yes
but it’s factually incorrect. You could say I’m being too literal, but hey, it’s not like I’m wrong.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Not wrong.
But you could show a little maturity.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
Do not make it personal
if you have a problem flag a post or email a moderator.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 29, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
It's not like I called him a dick or something.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
We don't need comments like that
its not going to lead to “oh sure i didn’t realise”
Just stop.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 29, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
I was just giving the kid some advice.
I didn’t think I needed a mod to hold my hand while I did it. I’ll be off now.
By the way, it ended with “eh.” Man, that really derailed the thread.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
By the way
if you don’t want to play nice around here, then you should find somewhere else to play.
Can’t remember a time when you came on here just to discuss baseball, and didn’t try to stir up a fight.
We love having fans from other teams here, but we don’t want the drama, keep it clean in the future. thanks.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 29, 2012 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
I didn’t see anything wrong with the guys comment. It’s all about someone elses’ interpretation to make it insulting imo.
saying someone could add maturity
is implying they are immature, and thus is a personal attack, which is agaisnt the rules here.
The member also has a poor track record of starting fights. Defusing the bomb before it blew up
Would you like to know anything else?
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 29, 2012 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
Please...if a Mod says 'stop', don't question it.
we don’t want to turn threads into debates about rules. You have a problem with the rules, write me, don’ talk about it in the thread.
I blog, therefore I am.
They made the playoffs
What were we like 15 games out
by mugisha2009 on Jan 30, 2012 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
what you are basically arguing
is that better teams are more likely to go on long winning streaks (or multiple medium-length winning streaks). This is not really news, nor is it a point of contention for most people.
The Sox and Rays were excellent teams last year, the Yankees the best in MLB. They won significantly more games than the Jays and had more winning streaks.
You use the Rays as an example
Yet I’m almost certain Friedman has never signed a free agent SP since he’s been at the helm
2 points on this
1) Better teams are more likely to win consecutive games then worse teams. I think that is just common sense. Any improvement, whether it is in the starting rotation, your first baseman, or backup catcher, will increase your chances of having a long winning streak. So in a way I agree with you that upgrading the starting rotation would result in the possibility of longer win streaks, With that said, Oswalt is looking to sign on with a contender, Francis is already signed, and Harden is really no better than McGowan, with less upside and is probably more likely to get re-injured.
2) Who cares if wins come in streaks or not? If the Jays win every game pitched by the 1-4 starters and lose every game pitched by the #5 starter, then you would have the best record in the history of baseball without a winning streak greater than 4.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 29, 2012 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
Agree with most of your points
Romero is a 1 or 2 starting pitcher on most mlb teams. If Morrow does not turn into a 15-20 win pitcher, then the problem is between his ears. Any credible writer basically supports what I say. The Jays are very thin on SP going into this season and I just question managements approach.
I believe the Jays really lost out in not getting Darvish. He was pitching at a level that is better then AAA, but not at the MLB level. None of the Jays minor league pitchers ( maybe there a few on the low levels who have been very dominant) have dominated to the extent Darvish did. Look at all the excitement that went across the entire nation, when we though the Jays had won the bid.
Rogers states they will invest more money when attendance increases. Absolutly laughable. AA is easily the best GM the Jays have had since the world series. I have no idea who makes the final calls etc. I just think that even though the Jays will be better in 2012, that many of the teams the Jays are chasing are now further ahead then the Jays.
I do find it humorous how aggressive and abusive several of the posters on this site get if you question anything Rogers or AA does.
by mugisha2009 on Jan 30, 2012 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
I don't get why you'd judge Morrow by his wins
Did it really matter how many games Felix Hernandez won during his Cy Young year? It makes little sense to judge a pitcher by his W-L total.
I also don’t see how its laughable to invest more only when attendance increases. Maybe if you live in a fairy tale world where businesses cater to your needs only without acting prudently for their sake, sure, but if that were the case Rogers wouldn’t own the Jays right now.
by Aidin on Jan 30, 2012 8:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Further ahead than the Jays for 2012 - almost certainly
But AA is not playing a short game, he is playing a long game. The farm system has been positioned to deliver a pipeline of players, but the fruits of his labours will only start to be felt towards the end of 2012 at the earliest, and more realistically from 2013 onwards.
In short, for the Jays, things are reasonably position, but mor importantly, “it is a rising, and not a setting sun” (Benjamin Franklin).
not to nitpick, because in general I agree, but
Brett Lawrie disagrees with you on when we will start seeing the fruits of his labours.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 30, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I was specifically excluding him
We traded major league talent for him, and our system didn’t really develop him either, in the sense that at the time fo the trade he was easily a top 100 prospect and for some a top 50 or better.
A similar argument could be made for the guys we got in the Halladay trade, but TDA was not a top 100 guy when we got him, and both him and Drabek have now spent 2 years in our system so can be considered to have been developed in it. Same deal with Gose, who isn’t directly a part of the Halladay trade but was acquired with a piece of that deal (Michael Taylor, who was considered top 50 material and no longer is considered a high end prospect, whereas Gose was the opposite)
Yea, I get your point
but when talking about the effort to rebuild the pipeline of young talent in the minors, I think you can’t ignore the prospects acquired in trades in favor of ones drafted. Both required scouting, negotiating, and eventually some level of player development. Trades are a very valid and useful way of maintaining the talent pool in the minors.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 30, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Don't put all your hope in the farm system?
Like Tampa did or Texas? Even the big bad FA spending teams like the Yanks and Red Sox get some of their best production from their farm systems. Spending like a drunken sailor on FAs only works in weak divisions like the AL Central. Of course when Cleveland’s and KC’s farm starts producing results, that strategy won’t work so well for the Tigers either.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
If some people are projecting McGowan for the numbers they are
I can’t see that line of thought being much different, but I don’t think that’s what he’s saying.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 29, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Carpenter effect?
I wonder of the Jays’ decision on Dustin will be affected by the Chris Carpenter decision at the end of the 2002 season. CC was 27 and expected to miss the full 2003 year when the Jays removed him from the 40-man roster and offered him a minor league deal (which he declined, becoming a free agent). Three All-Star selections and one Cy Young later … well, you know the story!
I wonder if the thought of releasing Dustin and having him come back to haunt them in a similar manner will affect their decision about giving him the 5th spot?
As to his stuff – according to fangraphs, Dustin’s fastball averaged about 95 in 2007 and regularly touched 99-100. In 2011, not only was his average down to about 93, but he never threw a pitch over 96-97. Still good, but not as overpowering.
Fastball
Dustin’s average fastball velocity in 2007 was 94.7. A qualified starter with a 94.7 mph average fastball would have been tied for third best in the majors in 2011 (Ogando and Verlander both averaged 95.0).
Dustin’s actual 2011 average fastball was 92.9. If he had maintained this over enough innings, this would have been tied for 20th best in the majors among qualified starters. Still good, but not elite.
Of course, there are many relievers who average over 95 (Chapman averaged 98.1) but over fewer innings. Apples and oranges.
20th in the majors is better than good, I'd say
As you said, not elite, and over the course of an entire season (assuming he pitches into the mid-100 inning mark) he probably could not keep that up, but 20th is higher than I would have guessed
Semantic argument, but there isn’t really much else to talk about
I doubt it
This comes up a lot, but McGowan and Carpenter aren’t really similar. Caprenter wanted a multiyear major league contract when it was still unknown if he’d ever throw another pitch in the big leagues. McGowan has made slow progress back from the arm injury, enough that the Jays front office as early as last spring could project he’d have at least a reasonable shot at coming back to the mound.
I would say it’s more because McGowan’s upside is really high, and he’s been relatively cheap to carry on the DL. So cutting him doesn’t really save the Jays that much money (and they don’t need to cut payroll), and if he comes back anywhere near the level he was, he’s worth a tremendous amount more than their investment. There’s also the fact that the organization knows him inside and out, and that’s likely bought him a lot more rope than an injury case without the same time in as him.
I think it's also worth noting
That Carpenter had a torn labrum, and at the time that was pretty much a career ender, whereas McGowan had only a frayed labrum and his other surguries were ones which pitchers have sucessfully come back from
Projection is futile
It is reasonable to think he could be anything from a very good starting pitcher next year, to not winning a spot or losing it during the year. Worst case scenario more serious ar troubles and he’s done for good. The way I see it, I expect nothing and whatever he get is a pleasant surprise.
I’m rather optimistic, at least by my standards. McGowan’s stuff looked pretty good in September, though he had problems harneseing it. In this respect, I think it’s important to remember that he was only 15 months out from his last major surgery, and the rule of thumb is that the velocity and stuff will return at 12 months, but usually the command will take close to 18. So he should be good to go for the Spring.
This is the best projection so far.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
McGowan is a feel good story
… for the Jays this year. I want him around to cheer for the story while my fingers are crossed he finds a place on the squad to make a meaningful contribution.
Expecting him to be anything but average is unrealistic. I want him to be healthy and do well (for his sake).
If I had to predict anything about him it would be that he gets a dozen starts and finds a structured, yet limited, role in the bullpen.
I’d sooner give Drabek priority for innings before McGowan.
"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu
I'm an optimist
27 GS
170 IP
3.70 ERA
12-7
160 K
50 BB
McGowan is one reason why we need to pay attention to scouting reports.
by gabrielsyme on Jan 30, 2012 12:25 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
you are my new favourite
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 30, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
i will always have feelings for you!!!!!!!!!!
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 30, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
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