Make Your Predictions: Dustin McGowan

A clean shaven Dustin McGowan. (Photo by Brian Kersey/Getty Images)

Here's one that is impossible to guess what he might do. I never figured he would pitch in the majors again. Just getting into some games last year was a great thing. This year we need him to do more than 'just pitch'.

Dustin was a first round draft pick back in 2000 and he was starting to put things together, as a major league starter, when the injuries started. He would get a good number of strikeouts, walk a few more than you might like but there was a lot of potential there. How much of it is left if an open question.

He looked to be throwing as hard as ever last year. I have no idea if he is more likely than the average pitcher to have more arm troubles, in the future. I imagine the Jays will be being very careful with him.

Year Age Tm W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H ER HR BB SO HBP WP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2005 23 TOR 1 3 6.35 13 7 0 0 45.1 49 32 7 17 34 7 7 71 1.456 9.7 1.4 3.4 6.8 2.00
2006 24 TOR 1 2 7.24 16 3 0 0 27.1 35 22 2 25 22 2 3 64 2.195 11.5 0.7 8.2 7.2 0.88
2007 25 TOR 12 10 4.08 27 27 2 1 169.2 146 77 14 61 144 2 13 110 1.220 7.7 0.7 3.2 7.6 2.36
2008 26 TOR 6 7 4.37 19 19 1 0 111.1 115 54 9 38 85 5 5 97 1.374 9.3 0.7 3.1 6.9 2.24
2011 29 TOR 0 2 6.43 5 4 0 0 21.0 20 15 4 13 20 1 3 67 1.571 8.6 1.7 5.6 8.6 1.54
5 Seasons 20 24 4.80 80 60 3 1 374.2 365 200 36 154 305 17 31 92 1.385 8.8 0.9 3.7 7.3 1.98
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/29/2012.

Bill James figures him to go 5-7, with a 4.50 ERA in 20 starts, 112 innings, 59 walks, 97 strikeouts. Guessing 20 starts seems like hedging your bets.

Me? I'll going to guess 25 starts, 10 relief appearances, with the team limiting him to 180 innings. 10-8, 4.30 ERA, 150 strikeouts, 65 walks. I'm hoping for the happy ending.

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