Man I wish there was something to write about......
by Tom Dakers on Jan 6, 2012 5:52 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Rumors
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PrintSomething better than writing about a twitter rumor started by someone claiming to a player's wife's cousin's husband's barber.
Beyond that, there isn't much for rumors. But then none of the rumors we've heard, this off-season, turned out to be true. What is there?
Jon Heyman tells us that the Jays were asking about Anthony Rizzo, which really doesn't need to be said, Alex inquires about everybody. As Ken Rosenthal says:
Yes, the Blue Jays inquired about the availability of Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, but that isn't really news. Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos routinely asks about the best players on every team. He almost always is told no.
"Alex is always looking for everything," a rival GM told me earlier this off-season. "He is the only GM in the league with a 60-man roster - and I say that as a compliment. You can't pin him down. He has interest in every one of your players."
He tells us Alex has asked about Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Gavin Floyd and "every other pitcher imaginable. Then, as he says, and we know, that most of his moves happen without hearing any rumor before hand.
I'm sure there will be news again, someday, but it can't come quick enough. Come on Alex, we are bored.
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I hope AA waits 1 more year before doing anything
I really think we will get a lot more value. Besides, everyone is overpaying atm in dollars and in prospects.
Personally I would
But I understand that this fan base would go bananas… I’d be selling Bautista, Romero and JPA for massive packages of prospects. If Morrow got off to a hot start I’d trade him too.
Why Romero?
He’s under contract for the next 5 years, including option. Who are you going build the rotation around?
If Morrow’s not going to sign an extension, I’ll bet he does get traded, especially if he has a good season. Possibly at the deadline, more likely in the offseason.
Just because hes due for some regression (His peripherals and stats don't line up)
And we would rake in a huge package of prospects due to his contract.
I like Morrow a lot but I think he holds twice the trade value he had when we traded for him.
yeah he does
but wouldn’t he have more value when they do line up?
the only guy I’d sell is Bautista (if we could get fair value for him, which I don’t think we can). assuming d’Arnaud progresses like we think he will, we could trade JP at the deadline or in the offseason. I don’t think trading Romero makes sense.
Sorry first line was about Romero
2nd was about Morrow. Romero is out playing himself and Morrow is underplaying.
Just saying it looks like last year was a career year for Romero.
Would Beachy + Heyward = fair value?
oh, I see
fair point re: Romero, but he’s still very good. he’s a worthwhile piece to keep around. rWAR-wise, you’re probably right about Romero, but he’s still a 4 win, cost-controlled guy – that’s very valuable to us
and maybe
Heyward’s value isn’t super high right now (at least compared to last offseason), maybe we could pry Teheran too (IIRC, that’s what Jono suggested)
This is all great in theory
But it’s not going to happen
1) He’s the face of the franchise, it sends a bad message
2) Makes it very difficult to get over the 85 win hump…if we’re a treu talent 85 win team next year right now, drops us back down
yeah it's probably a moot point
but it’s not ludicrous, particularly on a blog in which everything is hypothetical
Hypothetical questions and answers
Are great for the offseason. Slow news, mind as well speculate.
Hell yeah, there's the plan.
Then we could stay in a constant state of building for the future and never have to worry about contending.
I plan on living for a lot longer
I’d rather take my time working on the foundation so the top doesn’t topple over.
We could have a lineup of like Escobar, Lawrie, Heyward, E5, Colby, Thames/Snider, Kelly, JPA, Cooper
And a rotation of Beachy, Cecil, Alvarez, Dustin, Drabek
In 2012. That is assuming we get Beachy and Heyward for Bautista, whoever we get for Romero is gravy. We would also still have a loaded minor league system and enough money to sign Prince.
Right....
Making assumptions that are unlikely to ever happen, and your proposals would have them constantly building for the future (like I said) as I’m sure in a couple or so years it would be…trade Lawrie, Colby, Escobar, whoever for a boat load of prospects while their percieved value is high.
but that's silly
because those players comprise our core, and they’re either in their early primes right now or will be sometime in the near-ish future. Bautista is only moving out of his, and we could get one or a few excellent players in return who will develop and hit their primes at the same time as Lawrie, Romero, Arencibia/d’Arnaud, Colby, Escobar, Morrow, Alvarez, etc
At the moment
So does Romero Bautista, and Morrow (comprise our core). Trading these guys would just make us look like the A’s, Royala, or Pirates. No thans.
I totally understand the sentiment
but hypothetically, doesn’t it make sense? our core, as it stands (and IMO) is not good enough to compete. Bautista, in all likelihood, won’t be as good in two or three years as he is now, when we are ready to start competing. if we could get younger, equally valued players for Bautista (admittedly a big if) it would maybe/probably be a good idea if our only goal is to win a championship.
Well, I have to disagree about contending (competing).
Although you don’t see it (and I understand that), if everything were to fall into place (it did for Tampa one year), I believe they could. Mind you that is a mighty big “if” (biggest little word in the dictionary).
that's fair
I’m not sure the luck we’d need is in the realm of possibility, though. as in, it could happen (of course) but I think it’s more unlikely than you seem to
This is possibly quite true.
Off season optimist here.
I disagree with this statement
A team with a true talent of around 86 wins (which I think the recent BP additions gets us to), with a ton of youth and the inherent upside potential, definitely have an at least non-negligible probability of taking one of the wildcard positions.
I’m not saying we should start planning the parade, but saying it is out of the realm of possibility is a bit much I think.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 6, 2012 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
This is some of what I see.
Adding in that we get (hopefully) full years from Lawrie, Rasmus, and others. No more April-May lineups with Nix, Rivera, Patterson, and the like getting regular at bats (again hopefully).
okay, I'll concede that
but I think the chances of it happening are not something I’m prepared to bank on.
Between the expected regression of Bautista and Romero
I say we added around 8 wins but 4 should be taken off because Bautista is more likely to be 5 WAR and Romero to drop a WAR. And our win-loss based on runs for and against was 79 wins, so that should be used as the marker for last season.
I figure we are about an 83 win team now.
You have every right to think that
If anything yours is more logical than mine, but still I see Bautista as a 4 WAR player (which is still All Star level)
He's going to regress by 4 WAR?
Barring injury that is far too steep, imo. I’d say 6 WAR is more likely
well, depends what you think his true talent is
I think his true talent is around 6.5 WAR… so in hindsight I should have said I see him as a 6 WAR player
A season ago a 22 year old regressed 4 WAR
(Heyward) Baseball in my mind is more year to year, good players can struggle or turn to dust and the worst of players can become great. It seems to be a little unpredictable. Imagine we built around Lind or Hill after 2009?
Ok
But Heyward is a young guy still trying to find himself in the league, and Jose Bautista’s regression is based on this “turn to dust” theory (which I don’t get in the first place since Jose is still only 31). So I don’t know how one explains the other since they’re basically two completely different reasons for regressing.
I still believe he will following the aging curve
And begin to fade, my projection (guess) still stands at 4 WAR. Not that he regressed 4 WAR as much as he played above himself last year and this year I think he will play at his own level.
He hasn't followed any aging curve so far...
The aging curve is a point of reference just like every model. Admittedly I have never even seen one, but I’d bet a lot of money that no statistical model predicted Jose would go from a 0.2, 2.1, 6.8, 8.4 WAR in his late 20s/early 30s.
There are exceptions
But generally players start to decline around the age of 26/27
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2010/06/war_aging_curve.php
Oops
Subtracted OWAR from DWAR instead of 2010 WAR from 2011 WAR
Okay
But your forgetting that people are overpaying for those types of players, so we could get more value back. Bautista is on the decline phase so building around him might be fruitless.
We could either trade for younger players and try again or just pay the massive prices going to the A’s, Royals, and Pirates.
Bautista is not on the decline phase
Until he puts up a season where he has actually declined. Not many thought he would repeat 2010 last season, but he improved. I’m not as opposed to trading Bautista as I am Romero if we got the right offer, but we won’t get the right offer.
Look at a standard baseball aging curve
He true skill level will go down regardless of the numbers he puts up.
Again, not true
Those are expectations, based on aggregate numbers of what others did. It gives us an expectation about Bautista, it doesn’t tell us what WILL HAPPEN.
Please stop speaking in absolutes on these things.
Quotation marks
Unless you are quoting something word for word that has already been stated, the reader has to assume you are making the statement yourself.
by The commentator formerly known as Yoda on Jan 6, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
Standard being the key word
And I could really care less what happens to his “skill level” from an organizational worth standpoint, as long as his contributions continue to increase/stay close to what they’ve been the last two seasons. I’m not going to disregard his numbers… he’s over 30. I care more about what he does on the field than his skill level.
The problem is that there is no "average aging curve"
that Bautista’s career can possibly fit to. Who knows what his true “peak” talent would have been, since he didn’t seem to learn how to hit until he was 30 years old.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 6, 2012 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
And I believe your overlooking.
A lot of the foundation is in place and AA is looking to add. What is next, is for these players, give or take one or two (ie. E5, or Cecil {my opinion}) to show that they can contend before AA makes that big FA aquisition..
I agree we could be close
And might even make the playoffs now (2012) with 5 moves or less. I just don’t think we could maintain a playoff team for longer than 5ish years
would trading Bautista
really, by itself, increase our contention window for a few years? I don’t think it woud
What makes you say that?
The relative youth of all our building blocks outside of Bautista, or the stacked farm system?
Stacked farm is still years away
Baustista will likely be dust by then
Stacked farm is still years away...
But we’re talking about contending in 5 years…… which is years away………………
"Baustista will likely be dust by then"
In two or three years, he will LIKELY still be at least good player, possibly still somewhat elite.
I would trade Lawrie if I wanted to contend
NOW
But I don’t, I think it makes more sense to build around the 4 WAR 21 year old than the 8 WAR 31/32 year old.
Yeah right.
Just so you know, I’m not part of the sabermetric collective. That stuff (being polite) means nothing to me.
So the Jays become the Toronto Blue A's!
Thanks but no thanks.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 6, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
we'd be trading current value for future value
even if that value comes around in just 2 years, that’s closer to our contention window than 2011, no?
in any case it’s likely a moot point because it’d be nigh-impossible to get fair value for Bautista
nice sarcasm
but if we’re going to compete in two years, Bautista is going to be 33. that’s not crazy-old, but he’s only going to get worse. if we could get fair value for him (a big if) why wouldn’t we trade him at (presumably) his peak trade value and get guys whose primes will coincide with the rest of our core’s?
Bautista will start getting worse year by year now
So we either need to constantly be adding WAR to maintain/try and increase or take an extra 3-4 years and contend like 2015/2016
3-4 years is a lot
the current prospects who are likely to be good players will probably be here by 2013 or 2014
Still a starter at 2 WAR no?
I think he will back down. Ex-1st overall prospect in MLB.
yeah, he was way better than I thought
I forgot that he’s an excellent defender. he was about league average in 2011… 7 WAR before your 22nd birthday means you turn into a superstar at a crazily high rate
Wrong
Bautista is EXPECTED to decline year by year.
What he actually will do is unknown, unless you have a great crystal ball.
But i do its in my basement...
Okay maybe I dont :(
Jedi’s get stronger with the Force as they get older.
by ABsteve on Jan 6, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Again, more assumptions..
Who’s put the timeline as a couple of years?? It is possible to contend this year as well as next and so on (see, I can make assumptions too).
You don't have to be rude
People come here to write opinions, if we were speculating facts it world be numbers connected by punctuation and the odd word.
People are overpaying for SP and MLB talent atm, thus prospects are undervalued. We can theoretically get a team more talented than now by extending out timeline one or 2 years.
I am not being rude
I am expressing my opinion. I could say your an ass for saying that, but I won’t.
You mocked me
(see, I can make assumptions too).
I honestly have no respect for your opinion, and I would add some color to that if it wasn’t BBB.
ehh let's just leave it at that
the Internet does things to people
by benk on Jan 6, 2012 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
That made me lol
its true (talking about myself)
Whatever.
I was responding to Benk not you that time (hit the up button).
There was no intention to mock (apologies).
I hit the “up” button and it went to Benk’s “nice sarcasm” comment.
Well apology accepted
And I suppose I am overly sensitive too, sorry about the backlash it was uncalled for.
Huh?
I’m sorry, I’m not sure where you’re headed with that sentiment. Rebuild in the middle of the rebuild? Romero’s and Morrow’s are what we hope to get in prospect trades, trading them for more prospects who may or may not pan out seems contradictory.
You can either us a 10 year window
or a 2 year one. I chose 10.
Have to differentiate between Morrow and Romero. Romero is under contract for the next 5 years. MOrrow culd be gone in two years, so if he’s not willing to sign an extension, and wants to hit free agency, you have to look at maximizing the asset value.
The rebuild in the revbuild though is valid
Yeah, sorry
I just got kind of caught up in that comment… don’t get why we’d move our only rock-solid SP for prospects even with the plethora of arms in the minors
well it depends, really
there are differing degrees of prospects… Andrew Cashner is kind of a prospect still (his value is as a prospect, anyway), so is Justin Nicolino. getting prospects doesn’t necessarily imply we need to trade everyone and go for it in 2015, though your argument is certainly valid
I think it makes sense
Because then we would have even more prospects in the minors who each have the individual chance to become better than their predecessors.
You're basically arguing we should be the As
Trade for prospects, keep them for a couple years until they get good, then trade for more prospects.
I love prospects as much as anyone else, but eventually you need core pieces to build around…Romero is exactly that. Cost controlled, quality lefty.
But overperforming
If every offseason you traded players who performed better than expected and kept players who weren’t performing their best, you would eventually end up with a pretty good team.
we already have a pretty good team!
(I’m sure it’s annoying that I’m arguing both sides of this argument)
No I agree with you
But the market right now is overpaying for MLB talent. It makes sense to switch up our timelines accordingly. We will compete, its pretty hard not to with a team this good. The question is for how long? I’d rather give us the maximum window possible because I’m a young guy. I want to be able to watch a competitive team throughout my life.
The market has always overpaid for MLB talent
In anything, prospects are closer to being fairly valued than any point in the last 20 years.
Then its a market inefficiency.
And we should capitalize on it as long as can.
I'm not so sure that's the case
it might be, but it might just be that teams and GMs are risk-averse by nature. intuitively this would make a lot of sense, since GMs might be even more concerned about losing their jobs than they are about winning
Well...
At least we found something to talk about!
by Aidin on Jan 6, 2012 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I want a MjwW certified fanpost to get to the bottom of this ;)
by Mike Andrew on Jan 6, 2012 7:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Uhh
I’ve already got three others I’m working on right now.
by MjwW on Jan 6, 2012 7:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm planning my first one soon
On the last 20 years of top prospects list :)
I look forward to those 3 :P
Whose prospects list
Baseball America? There’s been some work done there, depending on what exactly you’re planning to look at
Yeah
I was planning on doing a surplus value based on rank by every 10
Aka surplus value on prospects 1-10, then 11-20 etc to see if it is a crapshoot. I also plan on doing a “strength of system” report based on simply reversing the numbers (like 1 = 99 points, 2 = 98 points) like on OOTP 11.
I know the latter has been done but I’m not sure about the first? I want it to be like the fangraphs draft pick one, where the draft positions get a certain amount of surplus value. BTW do u happen to know of how to calculate $$/WAR from 1990-2010? fangraphs only shows a small portion, I was wondering if you know of any place that has it?
I think what you're envisioning has been done
I was planning on doing a surplus value based on rank by every 10
This has been done, by Victor Wang of The Hardball TImes. Study here and a realted study on the value of draft picks here and here. Scott McKinney also did a similar study here, his data set is available here. Wang’s numbers are a little controverisal due to some of his methodology (and the time frame he chose), plus they’re a little out of date, but I really don’t know how much more there is to gain from going over this again.
In terms of $/WAR, Dave Cameron has calculated it for 2002-2010, based on actual FA signings and value. For my study on free agents, I just used the annaul growth rate and extrapolated backwards for 1998-2001, but I wouldn’t do it for going back further than that.
Wow
Thanks a LOT for figuring all of that out for me before I started. I guess that idea has been done :( I will find something one day and make a great fanpost :(
Goes to show it was a good idea
But yeah, I had a feeling that you describing something that been done, and was just hoping either you hadn’t started, or were going in a different direction
So much stuff has been done in baseball
There is too much time in between at bats and people decided to make 100000 stats and studies… Doesn’t it ever seem like an over mined sport?
Well its certainly a challenge
What questions in baseball haven’t been answered?
Only if you've got a crystal ball
You’re arguing for being able to predict the future. Sorry, no one has that ability, not even AA (or they’d be picking stocks). You don’t know exactly what players are capable of in the future, you have a good idea based on their past performance, but by that logic Romero was a write-off 5 years ago. Trading Romero doesn’t make any sense for this team.
No, I wasn't
Within reason…if you get an offer that knocks your socks off, to which you literally can’t say no, you don’t refuse. But I dont assume that. That’s also a major league ready piece, so not a prospect, which was your argument.
a couple months into the season
I brought up trading Romero in a game thread and then Pikachu put up a poll about it. it was pretty divisive, but some good points were made
Well then
You > Oakland Athletics and Billy Beane
I’m not arguing I can see into the future, but if we have the strongest farm system in the league we have stupid chances at being good one day.
Disagree
I want the strongest organization talent, not just minor league. Again, this isn’t a question of not wanting a strong system, but trading Romeoro to build the farm system is just robbing Peter to pay Paul. He’s a core piece…no sense trading that for a guys who may be core pieces
yeah, I agree with that
I’d have to get blown away to want to trade Romero (doesn’t hurt that he’s my favourite player). and a significant part of the return would have to be a current MLBer (or at least a prospect with a high floor relative to ceiling)
"Chance to become better..."
You hit the nail on the head right there. We have a way better idea of what Romero is than any prospect we’d get via trade. I’m not trying to discredit the amazing scouting department/front office we have, but baseball is a funny game like that.
Romero is pretty damn good, young, and under team control. With all the trade chips we have it just doesn’t make sense to me to trade him. Are we expecting to get two Romero level assets back? I think the chances of that are low no matter what’s going the other way.
Where's our "top of the rotation" help for 2012?
by Marcos Montenegro on Jan 6, 2012 6:09 PM EST reply actions
Let's see...
Everyone outside of the Braves and Rays need TOR pitchers so the competition is fierce.
Gio Gonzales – overpriced, Nats paid huge.
Matt Garza – overpriced, not going to happen unless the price drops and good luck with that as Epstein/Hoyer not as stupid as Hendry.
Yu Darvish – lost the bidding to Texas.
Felix – not going happen period. End of story.
Names that aren’t TOR but keep popping up for some reason and I don’t know why…
Jair Jurrgens – Below average FB velocity and not at the price Atlanta is asking.
Danks – dislike him for his big mouth/breaking Lyle’s hand and Kenny Williams extended him.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 6, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
and Phillies
we’re only competing with 26 teams!
by benk on Jan 6, 2012 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Still think
there might be some guys out there that AA has his eye on. That no one thinks has a chance of being moved. Even contending teams will take a big prospect package if the GM thinks he wins in value and keeps his contending status.
Last time I checked
There’s still four months between now and opening day. I also seem to remember Anthopolous or some Jays rep adding that they’d stay pat with what they have if they don’t find the right deal.
no more JEFF MATHIS
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 6, 2012 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wanted him to be our closer
But everybody said no :’(
I wanted him in the 'pen too
just because the chance of him being anything better than replacement level is so slim (IMO)
I thought the change in pitch speed would throw everybody so far off
They’d get Mccoyed’
he's above average in framing
and average-ish in blocking. Terrible at everything else
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
10 runs = 1 WAR
He was like 30 runs better than JPA
I think it was close. JPA was like -12 or something
Mathis was +7 so 2 WAR
Which means it's more like
+1.5 (if he plays 25 games) and JP can hope to improve a bit.
I mean difference if we started him the whole season?
Like if Mathis hit the same as last year he would be -1 OWAR and 0.4 DWAR then if you factor in pitch framing its like 1.6 WAR total. (I just doubled both his OWAR and DWAR from his 280 PA season last year)
So JPA was 0.9 WAR in a similar amount of PA, isn’t Mathis better?
if you take those studies at face value
they were/are a great step in the right direction, but there is quite a bit more work to be done
if you use rWAR it does look that way
fWAR says the opposite. Mathis was worth -1.0 in ~90 games. Would be about ~1.3 fWAR in 120 games. With framing should be something like -0.7
Anyways, like benk said, catcher defense still has ways to go. Looking at the things we do know, it’s really hard to make Mathis out as even an above replacement level player.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I wish we hadn't traded for Jeff Mathis
Not because I think he’s as awful as his reputation indicates, maybe he is.
I’m just so tired of hearing about him. He’s a back-up freaking catcher. He’ll play 20-30 games, and if there’s an injury to JPA TDA will be up.
As was said a couple days ago about a different transaction…Whoop-to-doo-dee
by MjwW on Jan 6, 2012 7:16 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
You're too pessimistic
Let’s talk about something cheery. How about… kittens?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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by Frag on Jan 6, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Oh really?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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by Frag on Jan 6, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
cats are only good for gifs and images
thats where they can stay!
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 6, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
What's your opinion on dogs?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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by Frag on Jan 6, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
they belong in every home
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 6, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
And bunnies?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
by Frag on Jan 6, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
they smell so bad it sticks in the walls
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 7, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Of course you would say that
your part rodent
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
by jaysfan100 on Jan 6, 2012 11:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Wombat, eh?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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no
yellow electric wombats are the answer to life. Plus, they hold a damn good/intelligent baseball conversation
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
I prefer elephants
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
by Frag on Jan 7, 2012 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
these are my favourite
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 7, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Looks like a Jeff Mathis comment...
resulted in the greatest thread of cute animal .gifs in the history of BBB.
Maybe Jeff Mathis is the key to happiness?
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 7, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Or, maybe, the cute animals are a remedy to forgetting Mathis’ horrible play.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
I don't see AA doing a whole lot more for now,
Unless something just falls into his lap.
Any truth to this?
The Texas Rangers may not come terms with Yu Darvish. An unreliable source provided that info, I just wonder if anyone else heard the same.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 6, 2012 6:47 PM EST via Android app reply actions
As a rule of thumb
I’d ignore it. I’d ignore all Darcish musing until the week or so before the deadline, nothing will happen before then. Probably a couple days before then
Tom, I gotta say this may be my favorite post you've ever written.
You have captured me emotionally and spiritually in just a few paragraphs. It’s like you’ve been inside my mind, nay my soul!
The ethos… man…the ethos…
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 6, 2012 6:50 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
It was your mind....and man it was a mess up there
dirty clothes all over the place….
I blog, therefore I am.
I had to let the maid go.
Couldn’t afford her weekly rate any more.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 6, 2012 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting conversations above about trading some of our stars for prospects
My cents on this is that you hope that your prospects turn into stars (either the players themselves or they get packaged to obtain an actual MLB star). Once you have a star entrenched in a position and on a team friendly long term deal, you don’t often see teams trade those players, unless they’re an awful team who needs to rebuild. I understand the whole sell high thing, but prospect hoarding has its limitations. The Jays already have a bunch of good prospects knocking at the door (and in the lower levels as well) and quite a few good young players on their 25 man roster. The Jays basically have 14 (maybe 15) positions that they’d ideally like to fill with star-calibre players. If anything, I think they’re in a position now where they should be going after players like Romero and Bautista (easier said than done for the reasons I state above).
I could see a Bautista trade feasable especially if Snider starts to produce. Strong possibility that JPA will be shopped near the end of the year as well. Though the Jays will lose a free PR guy if/when he gets moved.
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I wish we'd shop JPA now and bite the bullet with Mathis
I think it would be much better for the club going forward, regardless of if we want to compete now or later.
Second that
JPA is going to make the minimum, more likely to get better than worse (aging curve) so there’s no need or sense in trading him to play Molina
I should ban you for wanting to play mathis
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 6, 2012 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
I DARE YOU
Just kidding. Nobody messes with the bannerhammer.
But seriously I like Mathis better than JPA because he can play the position hes slotted in to.
because he can frame?
is that really worth the hole in his bat?
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 6, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
crater***
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 6, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
Don't make me start a game calling argument cause ill do it!
Well tbh I think Mathis would be a much better game caller than JPA, I think in the neighborhood of 10-15 runs.
sure
but given ~120 starts, Mathis is about 20~25 runs worse in batting runs
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 6, 2012 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
So 20 runs from framing 10 runs from game calling
And they are looking awfully similar.
Not saying that I can present any data because game calling isn’t currently quantifiable, and could even work against him but on gut feeling, him coming out of LA I think he will be a better game caller than JPA.
Then again I usually find a way to blame everything possible on JPA because hes my least favorite Jay.
well, have it your way
I honestly don’t think game calling is that big of a deal. In too many cases it just comes from the dugout
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
In my opinion it is one of the most important factors in catching
Because realistically if the majority of catchers call the pitches its a fluctuation of like 30 runs either way. Again thats just opinion, not fact.
the pitcher has the ultimate say though
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 7, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
they shake off until they get what they want
so they can cycle through all of them, ultimately deciding what they want
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 7, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
I don't believe I've ever seen a pitcher shake off more than 2 in a row
But I’ll take your word for it
so a pitcher has what 4 pitches?
fastball, shake
changeup shake
Curve ok
Reuse and recycle lol
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 7, 2012 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
i dare you
because mike scioscia does the calling in Anaheim
So please do it
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 6, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
None of that rubs off on a catcher?
I was kidding with the “i dare you” btw I wasn’t challenging you
i know after i posted it came off aggressive
i was more or less playing along.
No because every pitcher is different.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 7, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
Phew okay good :)
And thats true but isn’t that also a skill of the catcher? Knowing the pitchers differences?
and the coaches
its a team effort
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 7, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
I like Mathis better than JPA because he can play the position hes slotted in to
Umm, no. Just…no. Part of playing the position is batting, and it’s not even close.
by MjwW on Jan 6, 2012 11:35 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
he can't hit
he can’t flipping hit to save his life
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 6, 2012 11:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Honestly I'm really hoping Mathis hits this year
Yeah I know it’s not likely but imagine how angered Halo’s fans would be if he hits .300. Plus it furthers the legacy of one Alex Anthoupoulos if it happens.
Anyway this’s what I’ll be cheering for.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 7, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
They might be upset if he hits above the Mendoza line. lol
For some reason (I don’t know why), I looked at his stats from last year. The weird stat that jumped out at me was that he was actually walked intentionally twice….mind boggling.
by Alan F. on Jan 7, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
What's the point of shopping JPA and playing that other guy?
Doesn’t make us better in the future and CERTAINLY not in the present. Makes a lot more sense to wait a year or two when he has built up more value and d’Arnaud is ready for the Majors instead of that other guy we got from the Angels.
It doesn't on aggregate (for lack of a better term)
Considering we could better and/or more prospects for JPA in two years than we could now. Of course this is banking on him getting better, but going into his second and third full ML seasons by that time I don’t think its a stretch to say the chances are greater of him improving
Didn't we blow like 20 saves or something last year?
Isn’t anyone curious to see what this team can do with a good closer?
you say that as if we had a bad closer last year
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 6, 2012 10:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He wasn't that great
Maybe a down year, but I like Santos a little better than Francisco.
Santos...?
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 6, 2012 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Plus Frasor, Santos' Little Helper
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by Frag on Jan 6, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
God, not saves/blown saves again
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
For the record
Jays’ pitchers recorded 25 blown saves last year in 22 games, in which the team went 7-15. In those 15 losses the blown save was recorded in either the 7th or 8th inning in 8 games, 6 were blown in the 9th, and 3 in extra innings (they add up to more than 15 due to games with multiple blown saves). That means, a “good closer”, who wouldn’t have come out before the 9th, would have had no effect on those 7 blown saves before the 9th. And if you assume that you’d trot your closer out in the 9th and not leave him in during extra innings, then only 6 out of the 25 blown saves leading to losses were “caused” by the lack of a “good closer” in 2011.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 7, 2012 12:16 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Well You Just Blow Up the Team Then
The sky is falling. The sky is falling, chicken little.
The thing is...
The team is a lot better in a lot of areas. Their bullpen as a whole is (should be) better. Same goes for 3B, 2B and CF. I also expect better performances at LF and 1B, DH. Some regression at RF and SS is possible, however and the starting rotation is a little bit of a question mark.
I could be wrong but,
When I check box scores, leads typically given up in the 6th, 7th or 8th innings are listed as “blown holds”. It’s not considered a save opportunity (at least imho) unless the intent is for that reliever to finish the game.
I think it is wrong...
To the best of my knowledge, there is no such thing as a blown hold. There are holds (though even this is unofficial, I believe), but failure to get a hold results in not getting a hold, not getting a blown hold.
Meanwhile, they credit a blown save to any pitcher that enters the game under any circumstance which can warrant a save, and proceeds to give up the tying run
While I disagree with the premise of the 20 saves being the issue last year
I do agree with the concept of “curious to see what this team can do with a very good bullpen”. I don’t think there is much difference between Francisco and Santos, but the rest of the bullpen over the course of the year should be significantly better. I figure we have gained something like 2-3 wins from the bullpen additions alone.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 7, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I'm Just Not Ready to Fold
A full season of Lawrie, a better pen, maybe a return to something from Cecil, and perhaps a chance to see what some of our good prospects can do. My point is that this team has some really good pieces in place already. I’m just more curious about how those pieces come together this year, forgetting that the Jays had some bad luck last, before we go and trade our best chips away.
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