This post has a fairly straightforward concept - what would the Active Roster of the 2013 Jays look like if the season started today, and what would the payroll be. Only players currently in the Jays system and under team control next year are considered. Note that it is not my intention to suggest that this should be the opening day roster - acquisitions are definitely needed.
Most of the data for this came from Cot's, with projected arbitration salaries coming from mlbtraderumors. I was a bit surprised by the results of this thought experiment - without any acquisitions, the 2013 opening day payroll will only be 0.3M less than the 2012 opening day payroll.
| Position Players | Salary (M) | |
| LF | Cabrera, Melky | 8 |
| RF | Bautista, Jose | 14 |
| CF | Rasmus, Colby | 4.675 |
| 3B | Lawrie, Brett | 0.5 |
| SS | Reyes, Jose | 10 |
| 2B | Izturis, Maicer | 3 |
| 1B | Encarnacion, Edwin | 8 |
| C | Arencibia, J.P. | 0.5 |
| DH | Lind, Adam | 5.15 |
| Bench | ||
| 1 | Davis, Rajai | 2.5 |
| 2 | Sierra, Moises | 0.5 |
| 3 | Thole, Jonathan | 1.2 |
| 4 | Bonifacio, Emilio | 2.6 |
| Starters | ||
| 1 | Johnson, Josh | 13.75 |
| 2 | Dickey, R.A. | 5 |
| 3 | Morrow, Brandon | 8 |
| 4 | Buehrle, Mark | 12 |
| 5 | Romero, Ricky | 7.75 |
| Bullpen | ||
| 1 | Santos, Sergio | 2.75 |
| 2 | Janssen, Casey | 3.9 |
| 3 | Happ, J.A. | 3.7 |
| 4 | Delabar, Steve | 0.5 |
| 5 | Lincoln, Brad | 0.5 |
| 6 | Cecil, Brett | 0.5 |
| 7 | Rogers, Esmil | 0.5 |
| Injured | ||
| McGowan, Dustin | 1.5 | |
| Drabek, Kyle | 0.5 | |
| Perez, Luis | 0.5 | |
| Hutchison, Drew | 0.5 | |
| Other | ||
| From Miami | -8.5 | |
| 2013 Payroll | 113.975 | |
| 2012 Payroll | 83.7 | |
To come up with this list, a few assumptions had to be made:
- Using 0.5M as the minimum salary
- Davis and Oliver options picked up, and Oliver does not retire
- Using the Cot's approach to dealing with Hechavarria's signing bonus (pro-rated across each year).
- Players that are expected to be injured to start the season are included, though I'm not sure if that is the norm for young players like Hutchison or Drabek (for example, McGowan and Litsch were both included in the 2012 opening day payroll).
- Santos is healthy to start the season
- The roles for each player are largely fungible - As an example, I fully expect Cecil to start out in the bullpen, but the rotation needed one more arm and currently that would likely be filled by a league minimum player (Jenkins, McGuire, or Cecil for example).
Moving forward, payroll will need to increase if the Jays want to add pieces without creating other holes. There likely is additional room for payroll, specifically due to an increase in attendance and viewers, plus the amount saved because of a smaller draft budget, but how much it increases will dictate the number and kind of acquisitions that can occur over this off-season.
UPDATE
I've decided to keep this up to date as the off-season goes along.
2012.11.03:
- Reduced Davis 2013 salary to 2.5M.
- Added Esmil Rogers, Removed Joel Carreno
- Added Mike McCoy, Removed Mike Aviles
2012.11.08:
- Added Maicer Izturis, Removed Mike McCoy
2012.11.13 (Will update when / if the trade is final):
- Added Johnson, Removed Loup
- Added Buehrle, Removed Alvarez
- Added Buck, Removed Mathis
- Added Reyes, Removed Escobar
- Added Bonifacio, Removed Hechavarria
- Moved Izturis to 2B, Cecil to BP
2012.11.16:
- Added Melky Cabrera, Removed Gose
2012.12.17:
- Added R.A. Dickey, Removed Darren Oliver, moved Happ to the Bullpen
- Added Thole, Removed Buck
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