The Jays are in win-now mode and it is almost obligatory to be in contention next year. The marginal value per win is very high. Other factors that favor signing Michael Bourn:
- Television revenue is increasing dramatically. This is likely to result in higher player salaries in future years. For instance, national television revenue alone will be $51.7M/team starting in 2014, about double current amounts.
- If we still end up out of contention or need to lower salaries we could trade Michael Bourn or other players. The Marlins and Red Sox have done this recently. We would get our money back and additional players/prospects.
- Our 1st round draft pick is protected this year. This is unlikely to occur again in the next few years. In this scenario, Bautista would move to 1B and Rasmus to RF. This would give extra depth at every position except 2B,SS and C in the event of an injury to a regular.
So what would it take to sign Michael Bourn? Just guessing, but I'd say 4/60 or 5/75 might do it.
Here's an fWAR comparison to another recent free agent:
Prince Fielder (Age 28 - May 2012)
3 years preceding free agency - 14.1 fWAR (received 9 year $214M contract)
Michael Bourn (Age 30 - Dec 27 2012)
3 years preceding free agency - 15.2 fWAR
Any thoughts? Would this make sense for the Jays?