Top 55 All-Time Greatest Blue Jays: #36 Joe Carter
Joseph Chris Carter | RF, LF, 1B | 1991-1997
Notable Accomplishments: All-Star 1991-1994, 1996 Silver Slugger 1991, 1992
To be honest, I don't know where to put Joe Carter on the list. When I did this list the last time, I had him much further up. Joe had three good years with the team and then had 4 more where he struggled to get to replacement level. I'll admit, I think it is unfair to penalize a player for playing below replacement level. It's not his fault that the manager kept using him. He deserves credit for hitting that big home run too. But then he doesn't deserve credit for playing poorly either. So I'm putting him here this time.
Joe Carter was last man to touch the ball (well touch is the wrong word, make contact with the ball, the second time he touched it with his bat) in both our World Series wins. The first Series win against Atlanta, Joe was playing first base when Otis Nixon came to bat with two out and the Jays up by one in the 11th inning of game 6. Nixon had great speed, despite looking like a character from Lord of the Rings, and he tried to bunt for a base hit, but pitcher Mike Timlin had been reminded that Nixon liked to try for bunt singles, so he was ready for it. He got to the ball, near the first base line, quickly and flipped it to Carter. After the out, Joe jumped up and down higher than I've ever seen anyone jump. Somewhere I still have video tape of that game. But I don't have a VHS player. It was great to finally cheer for a winner after years of being a Expo and Blue Jay fan.
The next season....well you all know the story but let's tell it again. Game 6, Jays down by a run, 2 out, Ricky Henderson and Paul Molitor on base. My favorite closer (well soon to become my favorite closer), Mitch Williams, pitching to Joe Carter, 2-2 count. I am thinking, well Pat Hentgen is pitching the next game and he's been great and we clubbed Danny Jackson, who would be the Phillies starter in game 7, back in game 3. Mitch's pitch was down and in, I really don't know how Carter got enough bat on it to get it out of the park. But then Joe was experienced at swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. It was only the second walk-off home run in World Series history. Tom Cheek's line was perfect, "Touch ‘em all, Joe! You'll never hit a bigger home run in your life!" How did he come up with that line off the top of his head? He was a terrific announcer and should be in the Hall of Fame.
Joe Carter was born March 7, 1960 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (wouldn't it be more fun if Oklahoma City was in Kansas?). He is likely the second best play ever born in Oklahoma City, behind Johnny Bench, though there are a few good players from there. And Mickey Mantle was born not too far away, and one of his restaurants is there. Joe was drafted in the 1st round of the 1981 amateur draft, 2nd pick overall, by the Chicago Cubs, out of Wichita State University.
He made it up to the Cubs in July of 1983 and played 23 games. The Cubs traded him to Cleveland where he played for 6 seasons. From there he was traded to San Diego before the 1990 season. He had one pretty bad season with the Padres and then he was traded to the Jays with Roberto Alomar for Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez. The trade has been talked about plenty, but it is worth mentioning again that this was a pretty amazing deal. How often do you see two star players traded for two star players? It would be a tough trade to make, if you are a GM, because he is too easy to grade. All the players played well for their teams, but we won two World Series, so I think it is safe to say we won the trade.
Cater had a great first season with the Jays, in 1991, playing in all 162 games he hit .273/.330/.503, with 33 home runs and 108 RBI. He made the All-Star team, won the Silver Slugger award and came in 5th in the MVP voting. He even stole 20 bases, though he was caught 9 times so that really didn't help the team, much. He was 5th in the AL in total bases with 321, 4th in doubles, and 6th in RBI and 4th in homers. He played left field until the Jays traded for Mookie Wilson then he moved over to right while Wilson and Candy Maldonado played in left. He hit in the 4th spot in the order for the first month of the season but Cito Gaston moved him into the 3rd spot in May and left him there for the season. The Jays won the AL East that year but lost out to the Twins in the ALCS. Carter had a decent series hitting .263 with a homer, 2 doubles and 4 RBI in the 5 game series. Fangraphs has this as Joe's best season with the Jays, giving him a 5.1 WAR.
In 1992 Carter was very good once again hitting .264/.309/.498 with 34 homers and driving in 119 runs. Again he made the All-Star team and won the Silver Slugger award. This time he came in 3rd in the MVP voting behind Dennis Eckersley and Kirby Puckett. He finished 6th in Slugging, 2nd in total bases, 4th in homers, 1st in sac flies (10) and 2nd in RBI. Yeah it would have been nice if he could have gotten on base a little more, maybe take the odd walk but then 119 RBI is nothing to sneeze at. As noted above we won the World Series. Carter had a poor ALCS, hitting just .192 with a homer but in the Series he hit .273 with 2 home runs.
In our second World Series year Joe had another good year, driving in 121 runs (3rd in the AL) while hitting 33 homers, his 5 straight year of over 100 RBI and 7 of the last 8 seasons. Yeah, I know, a lot of that is opportunity, it helps having a lot of runners on base. Once again he made the All-Star team and he was 12th in MVP voting. Frank Thomas won that year and Blue Jay teammates Paul Molitor and John Olerud were 2nd and 3rd in the voting. And, of course, he hit the biggest home run in Blue Jay history. He didn't do much for us in the ALCS, hitting .259 with no extra base hits. In the Series he had the big homer and one other, drove in 8 runs and scored 6 in the 6 game series.
In the lockout shortened 1994 season Carter played in all of the Jays 111 games and hit 27 home runs and drove in 103. That would be 39 homers and 150 RBI in a full 162 season. His batting line was .271/.317/.524, so he had a heck of a season, even if the Jays didn't finishing 55-60 when the owners locked the doors. He made the All-Star and he was 10th in MVP voting. In losing the end of the season Carter lost a pretty good shot at breaking the AL sac fly record, he finished with 13, the league record was 17.
A handful of games were lost to the strike in 1995 but Carter still hit 25 home runs in 139 games. His streak of 100 RBI seasons ended as he drove in 76, it was an off season for Carter's bat, he hit .253/.300/.428. His bat bounced back some in 1996, he hit 30 home runs and drove in 107 runs and he made the All-Star team again. But then his 1997 season at age 37 he was terrible hitting just .234/.284/.399, with 21 homers but he still managed to drive in 102 runs. I don't know how, he did bat 3rd or 4th in the lineup just about every day, but most of the time he had Otis Nixon, Carlos Garcia, Mariano Duncan and/or Orlando Merced batting in front of him. You'd think that even a guy having a good season with the bat wouldn't be able to drive in 100 runs with those guys at the top of the lineup. That was quite the team that Gord Ash assembled. How they won 76 games I'll never know.
After the 1997 season Carter signed with the Baltimore Orioles as a free agent, he played there for half the season then was traded to the San Francisco Giants where he finished out the season and that was the end of his career. He really had a good career playing 16 seasons finishing with 396 homers, 1445 RBI and 231 steals. He is 51st on the all-time home run list and 59th on the all-time RBI list. If he could have just, you know, taken the odd walk and maybe kept his average up some he'd be one of the greats. But we can't have everything.
Carter was a favorite of Cito Gaston's; he continued to play Carter even though he had Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado coming up to the team. The thing that really hurt the Jays is that Cito got Gord Ash to trade John Olerud (for almost nothing) after the 1996 season to leave room for Carter. Olerud continued to be a terrific player for several years, while Carter was awful in 1997 and out of baseball after the 1998 season. But Cito had a strong preference for aggressive batters and veterans, and the Jays were in a ‘win now' mode back then. It was a spectacular example of misjudging talent.
Carter shows up several times on the list of worst seasons for players that drove in 100 runs. But then he did constantly drive in 100 runs, he did it 10 times in a 16 year career and 6 of the 7 years he was with the Jays. It might be an over-rated stat but, it does show that he stayed healthy and consistent through his career. He wasn't great defensively.
Rob Neyer had him listed as the second best left fielder in Jay history (though he played more in right field). And Bill James had him as the 32nd best left fielder in baseball history in his ‘New Historical Baseball Abstract'. Joe was one of the highest paid players in baseball, during his time with the Jays.
My memory of Carter is of a happy guy that clearly enjoyed playing baseball. I've always like those guys, if you can't enjoy yourself as a professional baseball player, there is something wrong.
Joe worked color commentator on Jay's games for Sportsnet after he retired for the 1999-2000 season then went and did the same for the Cubs. The less said about his ability in that role the better. He was inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame and appeared on Pros vs. Joes. He is married and has three kids.
Joe Carter's place among Blue Jay hitting leaders:
BA (>1500 PA): 32nd .257
On Base % (> 1500 PA): 37th .308
Slugging Average (>1500 PA): 9th .473
Games: 9th 1039
At Bats: 6th 4093
Runs: 7th 578
Hits: 7th 1051
Total Bases: 6th 1934
Double: 7th 218
Home Runs: 3rd 203
RBI: 4th 736
Stolen Bases: 15th 78
Runs Created: 6th 600
Extra Base Hits: 5th 449
Sac. Flies: 1st 65
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Only because Cater had several seasons with significant negative WAR
And I think Tom is bang on here – when you have that type of situation, that’s on management continuing to run out a player who shouldn’t be put out there.
on a more serious note
.262/.308/.471 with quite bad outfield defense
36 seems right
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Being the last player to touch the baseball in back to back World Series wins (the only ones for the franchise) means he’s a bit too low for me.
When you are talking “All-Time Greatest Player”, there has to be a major element of fame, and big moments. Joe has both.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
by Jevant on Feb 2, 2012 8:18 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Game 6, Jays down by a run, 2 out,
There was one out actually. I was thinking about Darnell Coles batting next for Griffin(?) and hoping Alomar would get to bat.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 1, 2012 8:12 PM EST reply actions
The Jays 9th went like this...
Henderson BB
White FO
Molitor 1B
Carter HR
Olerud might have been next which is probably where Darnell Coles might have gone.
Alomar
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 1, 2012 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
From Baseball Almanac
1993 World Series Game 6: "The advantage stood in Philadelphia’s favor as they protected a 6-5 decision going into the ninth. Mitch Williams was given the call from the Phillies bullpen and proceeded to walk the first batter he faced (Rickey Henderson) on four pitches. White flied out to left field, but Molitor (the DH) followed with a clutch single to center. Joe Carter (with one-hundred twenty-one RBIs and eight-hundred ninety-three in eight years) completed the sequence (with a 2-2 count) and sent a long bomb over the left-field fence for the game and title. "
No, Griffin was on deck (pinch ran for Olerud in the 8th)
And yes, with one out.
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by Minor Leaguer on Feb 1, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
He's definitely not a guy WAR likes.
Sure, maybe overrated but he will always be defined by THE Homer.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 1, 2012 8:23 PM EST reply actions
36 seems about right
Though, as noted above, given the fact that he was responsible for one of the franchise’s iconic moments, and was a decent contributor for a number of seasons notwithstanding the poor OBP, one spot above Damaso Garcia might be a little low, but it really matters more who’s above him
The Jays teams of the 80s/90s were histoically not very good OBP teams
It’s easier to name those who had good OBP on those teams than those who didn’t.
Molitor
Olerud
Alomar
Fernandez
Moseby
That’s pretty much all I have got off the top of my head.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 1, 2012 8:30 PM EST up reply actions
Right
But those guys accounted for a significant number of ABs (rightfully, they were better offesnive players). It’s also important to point out that there wasn’t the same level of understand about the importance of OBP.
True.
I think the only teams that put an emphasis on OBP were the White and Red Sox. Partially because of the philosophies of their hitting coaches (Walt Hriniak who was the disciple of Charlie Lau.)
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 1, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Huh?
He’s top 10 in a bunch of statistical categories, and hit the biggest HR in club history, and biggest HR’s in baseball history…and he’s 36th?
Gotta be top 10 for sure.
by craig in calgary on Feb 1, 2012 8:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions 3 recs
He's top 10 in a lot of counting stats
Which is a function of the fact that he played a lot of games (which should count for something in making a list like this). But his rate stats, such as the BA/OBP/SLG are not so good (SLG is still top 10, but OBP is much lower, and it’s more important)
He really had the one really good year, 5.1 WAR
Then a couple of pretty good years…3.4 and 2.4 and then 4 years where he was below replacement level.
I blog, therefore I am.
Yeah but
….ITS JOE FREAKING CARTER. If your list is going to just go by career WAR, then just list career WAR. This is what drives me crazy about sabermetrics, Joe Carter might be the 36th best player if Mitch Williams strikes him out and we lose, but some hits are just bigger than all others.
by craig in calgary on Feb 1, 2012 8:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 7 recs
Actually
He’s not so off-base here. Tom Tango wrote, about a year ago (and I’m sure several times before), about a concept called Championship Wins, where you measure a player by his contribution to winning a championship…essentially, you work backwards from the championship to hand out value. So for example, Jack Morris had a massive contribution to winning that 1991 Game 7, which had a huge Championship factor, since it was the decider…Game Six would have less of a factor, and backwards and backwards.
It’s not a perfect measure, but his point was, whatever your criteria, establish a consistent methodology and use that to argue. FWIW, while this type of criteria is highly contextual, I think there is some merit to it. In the end, you can’t preted that games like what Morris and Carter had were just regular games, they were historically significant and iconic for those franchises because of their importance.
So I wouldn’t be so quick and/or glib to dismiss this. That HR was huge, even if in linear weights it was just another home run.
by MjwW on Feb 1, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I'm not too keen on context-based value
By “All Time Greatest Blue Jays” what are we trying to determine? Are we not trying to find the best players?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
It's a good point
But WAR measures value, and this isn’t the top 55 Most Valuable Jays. Now, for the most part, they will be highly correlated. But greatness is also about great moments, and great memories. The Carter HR is something that has happened twice in over 100 years of baseball history. That’s how rare, and extraordinary it was.
by MjwW on Feb 1, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think that's way too subjective and situational
I certainly agree that it was a historical moment, but Carter was just one piece of many that made it happen.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Alright let's make it more objective
Down 1 in the 9th, 1st and 2nd, 1 out is about a 50% chance of winning the game.
If the Jays lose the game, they have a 50/50 shot at winning Game 7. If they win, championship. So when Carter stepped up to the plate, they were about a 75% chance of winning the championship, probabilistically. When his at-bat ended, it was 100%. How many players can say that?
Is it situational – absolutely. But guess what – the point of baseball is to win championships. Accumulating WAR is a means to an end – building the best team, and winning it all. If we’re talking about assessing value over the course of 162 games – of course, context should play very little role in determining value. But when we’re talking about direct contributions to a championship – context definitely matters. I wasn’t a fan when that HR happened. But I’ve seen it enough to have somewhat vicariously experienced it. And it matters that it happened in that context, because it was highly important to winning the World Series, which is the whole goal of following a team
by MjwW on Feb 1, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
well there is some of both...
if you went on straight WAR, by fangraphs…he should be down a few more spots, but I was trying to get a balance of what I thought and what the numbers showed.
I blog, therefore I am.
If you go with Baseball Reference WAR values
He doesn’t make the list at all, but I wanted him somewhere. Really he could go anywhere from 10 to 70, depending on how you wanted to do the list. This time I went this way.
I blog, therefore I am.
Right, I agree it's a balance
You might balance these factors in a different way than I would, and that’s fine. And we can logically and coherently articulate arguments from putting him higher or a bit lower. That’s not what I’m arguing about – I might have put him higher, but guess what, not my list not my site. My point is, there’s no purely objective way of doing this, where we can jump pull a data set and boom, done. There will always be context, and it’s unrealistic to pretend it doesn’t exist. It’s like all the mathematical finance models that were supposed to be perfect in assessing risk, etc, but they blew up in a big way because there is context they can’t consider. A list, or a model, whatever it be, is only as good the person behind it.
Oh yeah
Last time I had him up nearer the top but this time I wanted to do it differently. And I’m happy with both lists. Each is a different way of looking at the numbers. And in reality…I’m less interested in where they end up as I am in doing the write ups.
In two or three years I’ll do it differently again.
I blog, therefore I am.
right, definitely
you can have a list of top 55 Jays by (rWAR+fWAR)/2, but that’s not interesting in any way, shape, or form (and actually, it’s not even necessarily “fair” due to WAR being a counting stat)
All depends on definitions
Is what you include in Hall of Fame considerations the same as what you would include in Greatest Blue Jays considerations?
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by Minor Leaguer on Feb 1, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
I dont even know what that means
Same reason people call Joe Montana one of the greatest QBs ever despite having ho-hum numbers. He was greatest when everyone was watching and when people think of the 49ers, they think of Joe Montana throwing to Clark in the back of the endzone. When people think of the Blue Jays, they think of “Touch em all Joe”
I know I’m in the minority, but there just are some things you can’t quantify.
by craig in calgary on Feb 1, 2012 9:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 9 recs
if you are going on clutch...
why doesn’t his .192 in the ALCS in 92 could as much as his one big hit?
I blog, therefore I am.
Not at all. WAR only measures value in a generalized context. Where as if you’re looking at the player’s specific value, you have to apply context to their numbers and their careers. Otherwise, it’s just lazy analysis and like Craig said, you can just slap up a career WAR list for the Jays and pretend that it’s the be all, end all.
by dexfarkin on Feb 1, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I think slapping career WAR list would make a very fine "Greatest Blue Jays" list actually
Don’t see how it’s lazy it at all.
Here, top 10 list for hitters:
Fernandez
Delgado
Barfield
Moseby
Wells
Olerud
Whitt
Bell
White
Alomar
With that, you adjust for # of PAs and a little for how “in-the-prime” the player was during his Jays days. That seem lazy to you?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
of course
defensive metrics from back then are more suspect, so depends on how much weight you put in them
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I just think you want this list to be something it clearly is not
This is a historical overview of Blue Jay players from a knowledgeable fan’s perspective (or collection of fans … not sure if this is purely a Tom production or a combined effort?), I believe. While statistics are a part of that overview and the rankings, I don’t think they the main focus of this list. The list you are proposing would be interesting in and of itself for sure, it’s just that this is not that list.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 1, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Most of those guys were good defensively from what I remember
Fernandez, Moseby, Barfield, Olerud, White were all good defenders. Whitt, I don’t remember how good he was defensively. Bell and Delgado were not good defensively. Wells was good when he was younger.
Alomar supposedly wasn’t that good but that’s not how I remember him. Of course he may have suffered from Jim Edmondsitis, diving for everything to make him look better than he actually was.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I'm just saying their defensive numbers are probably more accurate than you think
Unless they say Bell was a good defender, then they’re wrong.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
That's basically a "Most Productive Blue Jays" list
Which is fine, that’s very important to the ultimate goal of winning a championship. But it’s not the end of the analysis. Players define franchises in more ways than numbers – Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig Mickey Mantle. Championships define franchises. These things also matter when talking about Greatness
Yeah, okay
All we gotta do is define how much the player contributed to winning that championship. All I’m saying is that Carter’s being given way too much credit for the 93 championship. He hit .259/.286/.259 in the ALCS and .280/.250/.560 in the WS.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Sure
As I acknowledged, they will be highly correlated, because better players tend to perform better overall. But it’s not causation, and there will be players who have iconic performances that deviate from their careers. Guys like Bill Mazeroroski and Joe Carter. Heck, that’s part of what makes sports history so great. Same thing happens in real life – Ulysses Grant was basically a failure in life until his Civil War heroics.
Look at Dan Johnson. Numerically, he’s not even a footnote in Tampa’s very modest history. But he has two iconic hits in 2008 and 2011 that will be remembered forever. They shouldn’t be the only measure of him, just as Bill Buckner’s shouldn’t only be remembered by 1986 Game 6, but they are indisputably significant defining moments.
Really the fun of the list to me is that you could do the 20-70
in any order and I wouldn’t argue too much.
This time, I didn’t want to move Carter 30 spots for the one at bat, I thought the 10 or so spots was enough. This time I didn’t want to give too much to him for having great teammates around him.
I blog, therefore I am.
by Tom Dakers on Feb 1, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think it’s the spot as much as it is the idea that guys who will likely be ahead of him mattered more to the organization in terms of value. I mean, we’re going to likely see guys like Mulliniks, Gurber, Lilly, Leal, etc rated higher, and that doesn’t seem right. Carter has his biggest years with the Jays and the biggest at-bat in franchise history. That should count ahead of a straight statistical comparison with some of the other comparable players who didn’t leave much of an impact despite fine Jays careers.
by dexfarkin on Feb 2, 2012 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
That’s how’d I’d approach it as well. I simply can’t say any of those guys listed could be consider “greater” Blue Jays than Joe.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
question
Adam Lind hits a WS winning homer this season, then goes back to being Adam Lind. 20 years from now – top 20 Jays all-time?
Would depend on how the rest of the team does, and how Lind does, but I’d say, yeah, probably.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
that's pretty ludicrous, IMO
(as I’m sure my not including him would be ludicrous to you) – I think you are greatly overstating the importance of that one admittedly huge moment and understating all that he did (or didn’t do) in helping the franchise get there
If you hit a WS winning HR for the Jays in your only at-bat for the franchise, I’d put you in the top 20.
I don’t think you can overstate the importance of championships.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
by Jevant on Feb 2, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I guess we can agree to disagree.
I’m not talking about exalting the bullpen catcher because he was on the field when those WSs were won. I’m talking about the guy that stepped up and ended it. Call it “luck” if you want.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
agree to disagree it is
I guess these arguments are what makes lists like these fun, anyhow
by benk on Feb 2, 2012 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’d be curious in hearing who your top 10 Greatest Jays of all time are without the benefit of looking at Fangraphs WAR (and I realize that may be impossible since I think you referenced above you were already there).
I’ll be honest, my list is going to be heavily influenced by first off who I actually say play regularly, and secondly by how influential those players were in defining moments for the franchise.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
it would look something like this, but it would be heavily stats-based
I think I’d go Halladay-Stieb-Delgado (though any order of the top three is fair, I think), then it’s fuzzy for me without stats… maybe Fernandez, Alomar, Moseby, Bell, Wells (and at this point it becomes nearly impossible), maybe Henke Clemens?
Here's mine without looking - Carter would probably be in the 20's somewhere
Halladay, Delgado, Stieb, Fernandez, Barfield, Moseby, Alomar, Key, Hentgen, Olerud, Guzman, Bell, Vernon Wells, McGriff, Clemens.
Barfield's arm was ridiculous too
Haven’t seen anybody as good yet, at least for the Jays and that includes Bautista.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
For the short time he was a Jay
Mark Whitton had a stronger arm imo.
Lind
always has the WAR to put him near top 40…a couple mroe season would put him into Damaso Garcia/Carter territory (assume he isn’t replacement level or really good). Add a WS winning HR (that added to the chance of winning on the order of Carter)and I would bump him up significantly.
Of course, there are two other factors. One, this is almost completely a false hypothetical, because WS winning HR are so rare – twice in baseball history, and it is this rarity that makes them so special and worthy of special consideration. Second, the weight you give to these type of factors is highly individual, and that’s fine. For me, iconic moments like this define a franchise, for betteror worse (better in this case). You ask Torontonians about Joe Carter, most of them will at least associate him with the HR. Not so with even a player like Robbie Alomar I’d bet
Robbie Alomar did have that game-winning homer in the '92 ALCS against Oakland
That’s probably iconic moment number 2 behind the Carter HR. Maybe number 3 if you like Sprague’s HR better in the ’92 WS.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I'd put these in order
1) Joe
2) Sprague
3) Robbie
I give the Sprague HR the slight edge for the introducution of Kristen Babb-Sprague.
I’m not how to formulate the introduction of a hot wife into a batting statistic, but I emplore Bill James to figure it out, because it’s pretty high in my books
by craig in calgary on Feb 2, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
hmmm
For iconic moments, I would have to go with #2 being Timlin fielding the bunted ball and Carter jumping up and down in celebration of the first WS win for the Jays.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 2, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Oh ya, I was solely speaking of iconic HR's.
First WS win was a huge one.
by craig in calgary on Feb 2, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
I'd put Alomar above Sprague
That was huge, because the Jays had always been so close without getting there for the better part of 7 years, and without that HR, the Jays are in a very rough spot in terms of advancing to the WS
I think MjwW hits the nail on the head right here
There is something to be said for iconic performances. No matter what you think about Carter, that homerun was a significant sporting moment. I remember reading about the top 10 WPAs in baseball playoffs and I believe the Carter HR is top 3. Not many can say that and sure you can probably say he was in the right place at the right time but I don’t fully buy that either. I highly doubt Darnell Coles hits that homerun (in response to another poster that mentioned Coles). And now I sound like Joe Morgan, grrr.
That and Carter was just so damn likeable. I’d bump him up a few slots just for his smile. It’s hard to hate Joe Carter.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I did push him up a few spots...
It just how many spots do you want to move him because he played with very good players
I blog, therefore I am.
But it's not just playing with other very good players
Again, I’m not really bothered in the end by the placement – not my list – I’m just interested in communicating the point that I’m trying to make.
The argument is not that he was on a 2-time World Series winner (which would be due to having played with other great players), it’s that he materially, and directly changed the chance of winning one of those WS – by roughly 25% with one swing. Now, certainly, he was lucky to have have been in that circumstance, and he there was some luck in hitting that HR (I believe he said, 99 time out of 100, I hook that pitch foul. Thank God that one stayed fair). But it doesn;t change the fact he had a huge hand (highly contextual) chance in winning a WS, which is the ultimate objective of baseball.
Now how you weight that against the entire body of performance – that’s where reasonable people can disagree. I think it should be at least a little higher, but again, not my list.
Absolutely
Because it requires you to only look at the aggregate. Which isn’t analysis. In fact, it doesn’t require any knowledge of the team at all. I could crank that list out for the Padres in less than an hour, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen or listened to a Padres game in my life.
Not all hits are created equal. Or all catches or all strikeouts. Milestone events should impact any list that is using a subjective term like ‘Greatest’ because they most certainly shape it.
by dexfarkin on Feb 2, 2012 9:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Disagree completely.
I think you are missing the point. This isn’t solely about value.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
actually if Mitch Williams strikes him out we go to game 7 and someone else is our hero
I blog, therefore I am.
Darnell Coles could have been the game 6 hero too (assuming Griffin didn’t bat). It would be interesting to see what would have happened if Williams hadn’t shaken off Daulton.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 1, 2012 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
Last time I did the list I let that moment move him a lot of spots up the list
This time I wanted to do it differently.
I blog, therefore I am.
If Joe struck out the game wasn’t over yet, we still would have had a runner on 2nd with 2 out.
I wouldn’t be sure where to put Carter either. It would help a bit if he had played the 1st half of his career with Toronto.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 1, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
yeah. All I care is getting him on the list, where really isn't that big a deal to me.
I blog, therefore I am.
Although this isn’t what drives me crazy about sabermetrics, I 100% agree that career WAR should never be the determining factor in a list like this.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
it's a great indicator of value and production
it shouldn’t be the sole determining factor – if nothing else, that would be awfully boring – but it’s an excellent starting point, and it seems Tom agrees
Oh, I don’t disagree with that at all. And i think it has value as a starting point.
But I also think (as I’ve said elsewhere in this thread) – the guy was the cleanup hitter for 2 WS winning teams, made the last out in one, hit the come-from-behind-series-winning-HR in the other. We have 2 WS wins as a franchise. He (along with Alomar and perhaps White) were the two or three biggest offensive constants in the best stretch of Jays history. That gets you higher than 36, and in my opinion, WAY above some of the guys who are going to be listed ahead of him.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
by Jevant on Feb 2, 2012 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I like that idea
92-93 Jays at the top of the list (whoa, not so fast Jack Morris), then mid to late 80s Jays, then maybe the Jays of the last few years and late 90s Jays (3rd place, woohoo!). At the bottom you get 70s and early 80s Jays and the abominations from circa 96-97.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
The guy never had a wRC+ higher than 123
as a corner outfielder (and a bad one at that, at least by d. metrics), that’s hardly good.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
“Greatest” is a subjective word. Which is why I don’t think we can rigidly apply stats to try to prove or disprove it.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
by Jevant on Feb 2, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Pikachu, not everything is numbers
I know you’re too young to remember ‘92-’93 but it is very special to those of us that were watching at the time. It’s something we can’t quantify and I know that sounds weird given the sabermetric slant a lot of us on this site have.
Joe Carter represents something special, the man ended both WS wins. For those of us that remember, we see Carter jumping up and down after making the catch at 1B in ‘92 and hitting the homerun in ’93. Sure, we look at Fangraphs or Baseball Reference now and go “whoa, Joe Carter was not a great hitter” but that doesn’t reconcile with the WS memories. That’s why it was hard for someone like The Blue Jay Hunter to write that Joe Carter piece a few months ago. Logically, he knows Carter wasn’t that great, but he’s still a hero to him.
It’s those memories that define us as baseball fans and I hope you’re fortunate enough to see the Jays win a WS sometime soon now that you are a fan. If the Jays win in 2015 and Colby Rasmus hits a gamewinning homerun or makes a Willie Mays style catch to save a game in the WS, trust me, you won’t care if he had a .302 wOBA during the season or if his UZR was -10. You’ll just remember the hit or the catch and that will be ok.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Feb 2, 2012 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 6 recs
and yes
it is not lost to me that further arguments will only cause people to become more entrenched in their original positions.
Tom has said that if he based this list solely on rWAR, Carter is much lower (or was it not even on the list? can’t remember). he DID bump up Carter several spots due to his iconic performance. I think people are instinctively seeing #36, saying “too low!”, but not realizing that his context-neutral on-field production might not even land him on the list at all
Totally missed my point guys
But I’m afraid to keep going because I’m finding myself morphing into Joe Morgan. Pretty soon, I’ll be rocking in the corner, muttering “RBIs” over and over again.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
maybe, if I did sorry
I want to stop the argument, because everyone is just going to get frustrated, but I can’t :(
As I stated, some of us are looking at the people who have to be ahead of him and are going ‘Really. They’re greater than Carter?’.
Is it true that you and Pikachu aren’t old enough to remember 92-93? Because if that’s true, that really explains a lot to me. And I don’t mean that the wrong way, but it helps me understand your argument if you simply don’t understand it because you weren’t there.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
I'm older than Pikachu I think
I was alive for them but not old enough to remember.
and yes, I’m certain I would think differently if that were the case
It's cool guys
We’ll all be overrating the hero of the 2015 Jays’ WS win for years after that together.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
That’s too bad. Trust me when I say this – if you had a memory of those 2 moments, I think it would be very difficult to not have Carter much higher on any list that involves great Blue Jays.
Those 2 moments remain the two most exciting moments of my life watching sports, bar none.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
I don't have a memory of it either
I’m in the same boat. But every time I see that footage, there’s a little chill down my spine. It’s obviously not on nearly the same scale, but still incredible, especially after frustrations of 85, 87, etc.
Isn’t that the point of the argument? Otherwise, we can end every discussion two posts in with ‘everyone has their own viewpoint and no one is right or wrong’ and go about our business.
I think it comes down to how one assesses value. When you’re looking at a list of ‘greatest’ players, I think you have to look at their contributions beyond just the statistical measures in determining their value to the franchise, especially measured against other players. It’s not fair that Ted Lilly never got the one-off chance to make himself the generational hero that Carter did, but baseball isn’t fair. Carter was a good player who peaked in the right place at the right time, and added on top of it a once in a generation baseball event. When you’re talking about ‘greatest’, I think that has to weight significantly.
but it is called "All-Time Greatest Jays"
remember, “WARs not make one great”.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Feb 2, 2012 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
what does?
luck of the draw + enough skill to make your one defining moment special?
certainly an inexact analogy, but does that make Karl Malone not great?
It was a joke
read the quote again carefully.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Don't feel too bad, it was kind of hacky
It was like the lovechild of a Star Wars nerd and Richard Griffin. Don’t know if I should be proud of that.
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There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
at least top 20 i think
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 1, 2012 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
sentimentality
has to make him top 15 at least. pretty iconic player to the franchise, still stays involved with the team and community..seems really low.
Joe carter!!
he is the reason I love baseball. I was 7 when he hot his homer and I was hooked on the jays and baseball ever since. thanks for everything Joe, you’re a true blue jays hero.
by ddbumpus on Feb 1, 2012 9:10 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Easily top 10
Okay, Okay lets get real here. The Jays Franchise isn’t even old enough to have 55 true all-stars, let alone label Joe Carter as the 36th best in club history. Seriously this club wasn’t really much when it came to individual talent until the mid 80’s, and having guys like Damaso Garcia, AJ Burnett and Lyle Overbay a few spots behind Carter just goes to show that this countdown should not be taken serious. A 5 time All-Star with 2 Silver Slugger awards, 2 world series appearances, and the only player in history to ever hit a walk-off HR in the WS to win the game while their team was down (note Bill Mazeroski hit his in a tie game) should never rank 36th with a franchise as young as the Jays. I’m interested to see who ranks 35th and beyond, and have a good chuckle every time. I’ll go as far as saying he’ll probably rank in the top 50 with a franchise like the Yankees, given he does everything from them that he did for us.
Top 10 IMO taking into account longevity.
Halliday
Delgado
Alomar
Wells
Bell
Stieb
Barfield
Fernandez
Carter
Key
I don't like your tone.
Explain why you think he should be higher, but don’t put down the writer. And, all-star appearances are not very good indicators of actual performance, and 2 WS appearances are shared by more players than you have ahead of him.
As Tom has explained, he made this list combining the actual statistical performance with the perceived ‘greatness’. Carter was a heck of a slugger for a couple of years. But not much more than that. I love him for hitting that home run, but it’s not categorically wrong to put him at 36.
(oh. And he would be nowhere near the top 50 for the Yankees, especially if you are making a list including ‘big moments’)
Joe Carter vs Vernon Wells
<img src=“”http://imgur.com/6fqW7">
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They have had very similar careers and very similar batting styles. Vernon’s career started a couple of years earlier though.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 1, 2012 9:59 PM EST reply actions
all I can say
is that this is a very, very tough player to rank.
I think it would have been impossible to not start a flame war
I get Tom's point about the list just needing a spot for everyone
but if Joe Carter hadn’t been a Blue Jay back in the days when I started watching baseball (I’m not from the Toronto area), I probably wouldn’t be a Jays’ fan. For me he’s definitely Top10. Like Tom says, this list is a bit of sabermetrics, a bit of counting stats, and a bit of “iconicness” so it could go any direction. As long as we focus on the fact that someone’s on the list and got a write-up that said what we valued the player for then we need to be happy with that. If we concentrate on positioning, no one’s going to be 100% satisfied with this list, no matter your bent.
Why not just rank by WAR?
If Joe Carter isn’t even top 30 on the list you really can’t claim to be favouring advanced metrics, counting stats, and importance to the history of the franchise equally. Yes he was allergic to walking and his defense was poor. He was also a guy who you could pencil in for 30 homers and around a .500 SLG% for his first six years with the Jays (when he was already in his thirties and in decline). How many players that have played for the Jays can make that claim? I’m not in the camp that says “TOUCH EM ALL JOE, NUFF SAID!” by any means. He’s probably not top 10. But top 20? I’d say so.
We shouldn't
If you ignored the bad stats he would be top 10, easily. He is 6th in franchise history in total bases for crying out loud.
6th in PAs as well
hmm… it’s almost as if total bases depends on the amount of PAs you get
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Well..
To be fair, Joe Carter can’t really make that claim. In his first 6 years he hit 30+ HR 4 times, and slugged >.500 twice. Adam Lind has a higher career slugging percentage, and has averaged 28 HR’s over his first 3 full seasons..If he hits a walk off world series winner this year, is he a top 20 guy? I’m not so sure.
I see where you're going with this
but Adam Lind has had only 1 good year with the Jays, while Carter had 3. Carter’s best year was significantly better than Lind’s, and his second best year was only slightly worse than Lind’s one good year.
With that said, if Lind does hit a walk-off world series homerun, becomes better than league average at 1B for at least a couple more seasons, and plays 6+ seasons with the Jays, then I do think he would be on this list. Not a top 20 guy unless he performs a lot better, but at least in the top 55. Another walk-off won’t have nearly the same impact as the first time it happened.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 2, 2012 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
well that's not really fair, is it?
now we’re giving him undue credit for coming up at a big time. yes, it’s awesome that he hit the home run and maybe no one else would have, but actively punishing another player because he’s younger…?
I'm not really clear on what you are trying to say here, but
I think I agree, that from a statistical view point every home-run hit is worth the same no matter when it is hit, no matter who hits it.
From a historical standpoint, hitting a walk-off homerun to win the world series is a significantly bigger event than every other home run. The first time it happens in franchise history is also a bigger event than the second time.
From what I can tell, this list is a combination of the subjective and the objective attributes of Blue Jays to come up with the rankings of how players performed as Blue Jays, as well as their place in the history of the franchise.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 2, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
For me the question is...
Would you put Bucky Dent in the top 10 of the Yankees? Not likely? Aaron Boone? Nah.
This time I wanted a list that didn’t give guys a leg up because they played with very good players.
I blog, therefore I am.
Yankees have a much longer history with many more WS wins and the most players in the Hall of Fame
You’re comparing apples and oranges. Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone had great moments in the playoffs but that’s overshadowed by so many years of Yankee greatness. On other teams, those two would rank much higher.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Also, ask Red Sox fans how they feel about Bucky F'in Dent or Aaron Boone
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Philly fans hate everything
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There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Feb 2, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
I think I'm comparing a guy that hit one amazing home run with another...
I don’t want to have a list, this time, that each player is dependent on having great teammates to make the list.
If the list was ‘great moments in Blue Jay history’ (which would be a fun list), Carter goes to the top. But, Baseball Reference gives Joe a career WAR of 5.8 with the Jays, far less than Marco Scutaro. Joe is on the list, Marco isn’t.
I blog, therefore I am.
Joe Carter put up some good seasons in Cleveland with bad teammates
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
It's more to point out that Joe Carter was not just a guy that had "good teammates" and that's why he was good
He was a good ballplayer with or without the good teammates.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
yeah he was a good player
but then he got on base at a .308 rate as a Jay, 37th best in team history.
I blog, therefore I am.
17th best wOBA in team history at 2000 PAs (as noted by TO Steve below)
Pikachu notes he’s 21st in wRC+. Even at 1500 PAs, he’s still at 21 for wOBA and 25th for wRC+. That should put him in the top 20-30 range.
You have to remember you’re comparing across eras, so OBP doesn’t translate so well when it wasn’t valued by teams. Do you think Carter would be as much of a hacker today if he had hitting coaches and managers telling him to lay off bad pitches instead of do what you can to drive the run in?
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Feb 2, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I think he would have been
Because being a hacker allowed him to be a good power hitter. You can’t just assume that he could have changed one part of his game without affecting the rest. It’s a tradeoff. If he had tried to have better plate discipline, maybe he never makes the majors because he doesn’t show enough power as a result, and he’s just a mediocre player who has not great plate discipline, not great power and not great defence.
Also, I disagree that OBP doesn’t translate across ages. Just because it wasn’t as much, doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t today look at it was part of the value that he offered. With more knowledge, we know that he wasn’t as valuable a player as was thought 20 years.
My biggest problem is just using OBP to determine his value
You can’t just determine a guy’s value based on his weakest stats, he had strengths too. The guys below are correct that wOBA and wRC+ are better indicators of his total hitting value across eras.
A problem I just noted is that Carter may be in the 20-30 range for hitters but that ignores pitchers. Given the inclusion of pitchers, I get the #36 rankiing overall. It still seems wrong though given his other contributions.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I don't think anyone's doing that though
If that was your point, then I misunderstood. Of course I’m not going to just use OBP. wOBA or wRC+ are much better, as far as rate stats go. As for the placement, we’re on the same page
That's a good question
and no, I wouldn’t include Bucky Dent. I would like to make it clear that I agree with your statement about being able to place him anywhere from 10-70 on this list. I really don’t feel that strongly one way or another (well, that’s not true … I started watching baseball in ’90 so I am completely biased when it comes to Carter).
My problem with assessing Carter from the perspective of total WAR is that he dragged on with the team for 4 years, really pulling down all his numbers. His first 3 years here, which happened to coincide with the 2 WS wins, he was above average, accumulating 10.9 fWAR with a peak year at 5.1fWAR. To contrast, Paul Molitor accumulated 10.1 fWAR in 3 years with the Jays, with a peak of 5.6 fWAR. Basically, Carter is being punished because he did not leave the team after 3 years, sticking around for his declining years. Would we think as positively about Molitor had he stuck around for a few more years while he was putting up 0.8 and -0.5 WAR seasons?
I’m really not sure what I am trying to say here … I agree with the ranking for the most part, though I would probably have him up ahead of Molitor and a few others, but in general I agree with it and since it is so subjective and controversial, there really isn’t a wrong answer with Carter (well, 1st would probably be a wrong answer, but I digress).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 2, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
I really thought Carter would end up in the top 10, simply due to his counting stats.
Not that it’s a big deal really.
I do wonder though, if in 20 years some hockey sabermatrician will end up telling us that Sidney Crosby wasn’t that great.
I wouldn't put Sid in the top anything of hockey players, yet.
He had a great goal.
I blog, therefore I am.
After sober reflection
I think Tom mad this ranking to drive page views :)
In which case, well played, Tom, well played!
by MjwW on Feb 2, 2012 11:22 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
“Touch ‘em all, Joe! You’ll never hit a bigger home run in your life!” How did he come up with that line off the top of his head?
Isn’t it true that Tom wasn’t trying to make some sort of iconic line, he was actually hoping Joe would touch all the bases because he was jumping around so much? I thought I heard that somewhere.
by craig in calgary on Feb 2, 2012 11:38 AM EST reply actions
I LOVE Tom Cheek!
That line even sounds cool in French:
Touchez-les tous, Joe ! Vous ne frapperez jamais une plus grande course à la maison dans votre vie!
How many years do we have to wait till he’s inducted?
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Feb 2, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Lol
It would sound even cooler if the translation were a little more accurate. “course à la maison” literally translates to “run home”, but the French term for Home Run is “circuit” (shortened from "coup de circuit)
Baseball-Reference actualy has a nice glossary here
No one likes a 'know-it-all" Mr. Wilner
I know you’re just trying to edjimacate me and all, but I am beyond help.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Feb 2, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
One more is one too many...
However, I feel like because he has passed away there isn’t any urgency to get him into the hall. He should have gone in while he was alive, but since that didn’t happen I think they’ve decided they’d give the honour to other deserving people (or Tim McCarver, ugh) who are still alive.
I don't really agree
The longer he waits, the more the memories will fade and the lower his chances of making it will fade. But just as important, there’s also his family, who deserve to accept the award on his behalf and be around for it. Now, I’m not aware of anything in this respect that makes it urgent for him to be awarded the Frick, but life is very unpredictable and this can happen very suddenly, as was tragically the case for Tom
by MjwW on Feb 2, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
But this I like.
Moar of this.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Feb 2, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
That's true
I heard that too. Tom Cheek wasn’t trying to come up with a great line. He was worried that Carter was going to miss 3B becuase he was jumping around so much. Basically, he was taking time out from making the call to speak to Joe. That’s what made him so great. He wasn’t the most knowledgable baseball person and he would make several mistakes during a game. But listening to Tom Cheek call baseball games was like your favourite uncle calling you over to tell you a great story. He had a way with it that you just got lost in it.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
What family member would you say Buck Martinez is most like?
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by Minor Leaguer on Feb 2, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Cousin Itt.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
by Jevant on Feb 2, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Interesting...
Everybody seems either to think that #36 is where Carter belongs or that he should be top 10. Personally, I think 36 is a little low, but I definitely wouldn’t put Carter in the top 10. the one stat everybody brings up for justifying his low ranking is OBP. If you are ranking him on that alone, his ranking is pretty good.At the ime carter was playing, OBP was an undervalued stat. Thanks to Billy Beane, it is now an over-rated stat. WAR is a good stat for comparing players who are playing at the same time, but I don’t think it is a fair measure of players from different generations. I don’t think wOBA is a perfect stat, but in my view it is the best stat for comparing 2 players who played at different times. Using a cutoff of 2000 PAs, Carter ranks 17th all time for the Jays in that stat.Those that put him in the top 10 are giving him too much recognition for that one at bat. But, I don’t think you can completely overlook the fact that he was the middle of the lineup guy during the team’s glory years. For that, I would place him somewhere near #25 on my all time Jays list. But these lists are subjective. Everyone is going to have a different take and I think Tom is doing us a great service in putting this list together and he’s doing a great job at it.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
I agree that somewhere in between is more accurate
I’d have him closer to 20 myself.
But to address a couple of other things. OBP is not overrated now – we understand it’s contribution to run creation in relation to other statistics like OBP (10 points of OBP is worth about 17 points of SLG – that is, they would have the same expected run creation).
Also, offensive WAR is driven by wOBA (in the fWAR version, which is largely what’s been used here), so for all intents and purposes, they are the same thing, except WAR is a counting stat and wOBA a rate stat. So both can be used to compare players across generations, fairly, but just looking at WAR gives you total value, whereas wOBA gives you productivity – both are important.
If you were just using OBP he wouldn't be on the list...
But yeah you could put him almost anywhere and I’d nod my head.
I blog, therefore I am.
I just wonder who will be #30-35, Im guessing probably 2 of them I’ve never heard of or don’t hold in particular high regard.
why so defensive?
ease up, that comment you just said could have been used as a reply to everyone’s post in this thread, but it wasn’t.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 2, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
because I like this site
and his comment didn’t really contribute anything to the discussion other than “I don’t like this list”
be less snarky please
your comment was counter productive, and as mentioned could have been said to any of the previous argument posts, but because it came after the fact it doesn’t get a constructive response? No.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 2, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
okay, I know I'm not supposed to talk back
and if want to just end this conversation, say so and I will stop. but craig’s comment – the one that sparked the big debate – said,
He’s top 10 in a bunch of statistical categories, and hit the biggest HR in club history, and biggest HR’s in baseball history…and he’s 36th?
Gotta be top 10 for sure.
craig actually gave reasons why he felt the placement was wrong. the other comment did not. it struck me as nothing more than a complaint.
You don't need to reply to everyones posts
he gave his opinion on the matter, you don’t need to give a snarky response back just because it was vague. ask for reasons or something else constructive. just be nicer.
I hope its clearer now.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 2, 2012 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Doug Ault
If Carter should be higher on the list because of the importance of his WS HRs, shouldn’t Doug Ault at least make an appearance on the list? He did hit the very first Blue Jay home run (two on the very first opening day in fact) and played a key role in that very first victory. That’s a very important point in the Blue Jay history, even if Ault was an otherwise insignificant player.
Just playing devil’s advocate to those pushing for Carter to be higher. I’ll concede that I might have ranked Carter a bit higher too but I’m waiting for the rest of the list first
Those HR were not very significant
By definition, every team will have somebody hit the first franchise HR, so in fact it’s something that has to happen, rather than being something extraordinary .
Also, it had very little to do with winning a championship, whereas Carter’s was instrumental (or if you don’t like that choise of word, very important). And championships are the goal of baseball.
I don’t think they’re the same thing. Also, I don’t think the argument is that Carter’s HR alone is worth moving him up, but rather his contributions in the matrix of the championship years should be elevated.
Just curious: has a list of the top N Blue Jays moments ever been done on this site?
It would be a lot more difficult to argue against Carter being at the top of that list.
As someone who witnessed both World Series wins live, it always amuses me when people try to knock Carter off the pedestal that I feel he rightly belongs on. I understand it from a sabermetrics standpoint, but out of pure sentimentality it just seems wrong. I will continue to believe what my heart says, though.
You were there?
I can’t even imagine. I went apesh*t crazy in my basement…to be there in attendance would have been unreal.
I’m with you there, I refuse to take the sentiment out of lists like this, but I guess that gives us something to argue about discuss in the offseason!
by craig in calgary on Feb 2, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Oops - I meant "live" in the sense of "as it happened"
I was in my living room watching it and, presumably, totally freaking out. I agree, that would have been amazing to see in person. Maybe next time – let’s see if Brett Lawrie jumps higher than Carter did!
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