Fast Forward to 2013

by Binjo42 on Feb 10, 2012 5:46 PM EST

I was kinda interested in looking at potential free agents for 2013 and seeing who if any could be of any interest to our team moving forward. Of course the need for a bat and a starting pitcher are still tops of the list. However the batting options are limited with

Lance Berkman who had a stellar year last year is gonna be 36 and didn't have the best time hitting in the AL east

Mike Napoli who I'd love to sign and AA's first mistake. Will probably get resigned by Texas

and David Wright who when healthy is a beast but a liability otherwise.

Now pitching is whats of interest. Matt Cain and Cole Hamels could both potentially be free agents and if you were AA who would you rather sign.

2011 Numbers

Matt Cain 27

2.88

221.2

177

179

.217

1.08

Cole Hamels 28

PHI

2.79

216.0

169

194

.214

0.99

My pick is Hamel, pitches in a tougher division, tougher ball park and hes a power throwing lefty that would be a great compliment to Romero and Morrow

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Hamel is almost definitely going to be extended

I don’t think Cain’s ability to suppress homers is going to continue in the RogCen, either. MjwW’s very extensive work on how often big-contract FA pitching works out for the team has really soured me on going after FA pitching unless somehow front offices still don’t know how good Zack Greinke actually is.

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by benk on Feb 10, 2012 5:56 PM EST reply actions

I'm hoping to finish the hitting this weekend

Well, the updated comprehensive list. Then, as a byproduct of the process of compiling the list of those big contracts, I’ve got lists of “intermediate” contracts which I’m going to crunch (compiling the lists is what takes so much time)

by MjwW on Feb 10, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

I don't want either

Going to end up being mega-deals, and in the expectation is just for too much destroyed value relative to where the Jays are likely to be competitively.

That said, let’s wait and see how the team does in 2012. If they go something like 86-76 with no crazy Pythag results, and no crazy performances unlikely to be replicated (like Ellsbury 2011), then maybe you can make a case for getting one of those to push you over.

The other thing is, I doubt all of those guys (Hamels/Greinke/Cain) actually get to free agency

by MjwW on Feb 10, 2012 6:04 PM EST reply actions

I would also target Hamels if he hit the market.

If you could get him on a contract comparable to the CJ Wilson deal or even bit above that, say 5 years @ 85-90 million. Is it really a forgone conclusion that he will be extended given how much money the Phillies have tied up in Howard, Doc, Lee, Papelbon and Rollins? If so they are now in the same realm as Boston and New York in terms of financial clout.

by icemanDan on Feb 10, 2012 6:06 PM EST reply actions

If he hits free agency

Barring an injury this year, there is absolutely no way he ends up under 100M

by MjwW on Feb 10, 2012 6:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

greinke

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Feb 10, 2012 6:36 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

this

by STZ513 on Feb 10, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

I agree Greinke

by jensan on Feb 11, 2012 5:39 PM EST up reply actions

depends on $$$

surely some team will drive a dumptruck full of it up to his house.

by SuckaMD on Feb 14, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

I really hope he gets overshadowed by Hamels and Cain

but highly unlikely all three of them reach FA

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Feb 14, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

I dont think the napoli trade was a mistake by any means. He just happened to break out in Texas, in a great lineup. Who knows if he would've done the same here.

by boltspeedman on Feb 10, 2012 7:03 PM EST reply actions

+1

I’d be interested in going back and seeing what people wrote at the time in the threads when that trade was announced.

I didn’t really understand why we needed another RHP in the pen after getting Rauch and Dotel. But that had more to do with what we got back, there didn’t seem to be room to get Napoli a ton of ABs at the time (though he would have made a great platoon with Lind)

by MjwW on Feb 10, 2012 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

it wasn't a horrible trade at the time

a pretty good position player for a good reliever is almost never a good trade.

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by benk on Feb 10, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions

Right

That’s exactly what I’m saying. I did think Napoli could have been useful as a lefty masher (essentially a platoon guy since he had big career splits) since the Jays were abysmal against lefties in 2010, and beyond that getting another RHP was a little odd, but it wasn’t a brutal trade

by MjwW on Feb 10, 2012 9:30 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

honestly we didnt have a spot for him anyways and the bullpen was a bigger need

by STZ513 on Feb 10, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions

I can't see how he would have been much worse

he hit for a 178 wRC+. Would he not have been as good if he was a Jay instead? Sure. But how much? 160? 150? Even at 140 he would have been very valuable.

Regardless, the problem with the trade is like MjwW said, the return. 1 year of Francisco (and a draft pick) for 2 years of Napoli seemed like an underwhelming trade at the time.

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Feb 10, 2012 8:27 PM EST up reply actions