Best move AA has made yet (poll)
by bluejays13 on Feb 10, 2012 11:28 PM EST
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PrintSo I was wondering, what is the best move that AA has made yet? I thought many different things from the Bautista contract to the Lawrie trade etc. But its not really that simple. You can make a case for many moves and it really is personal opinion. So please vote in the poll and leave a comment as to why you believe that it is the best move AA made. If your choice is not there please tell us what it is.
side note: if this has been done before, I am sorry.
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I'm for him getting any superstar.
Doesn’t have to be Canadian.. lol
I am the one who knocks.
by outoforder87 on Feb 12, 2012 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
canadian makes it 10 times better
In AA we trust.
by bluejays13 on Feb 12, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i know this is about to get a lot of flak
but i 100% agree
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 12, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
Haha it's cool.
We’ll agree to disagree.
I am the one who knocks.
by outoforder87 on Feb 13, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
usually starts a
“i dont care where they are from as long as they are good” debate
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 13, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to nominate the Escobar extension
not as great as the Bautista extension, but still frigging amazing
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Over the Wells deal?
That cleared up 75 million in essentially dead money. Escobar was a very good deal, but I don’t see it providing on the order of $75M in surplus value (net of what we sent to Atlanta)
in light of this
Bautista extension, Lawrie deal or possible Yunel deal (in conjunction with extension) are the only possible candidates really unless Morrow turns into Greinke
Yes. Replacing Wells with Davis didn’t really improve the team from a talent perspective… replacing Seabass with Escobar did.
Right
But it freed up a ton of money with which to get talent. We can value the talent (and you;re right, not quite 75M since Wells would have had some projected above replacement value at the time. But north of 60M)
True but then you have to work around a bunch of other factors/variables. And that get’s complicated so I decided to make my answer based off a simple talent replacement basis namely “Which move replaced talent with better talent?” and Escobar was a significant talent upgrade.
Even if you base it just off money I don’t see how anyone can vote for anything but the Bautista contract. 8.3 fWAR… if you use 5M per WAR (that’s around what it is right? haven’t looked that up in some time) that’s $41,500,000.00 worth of ballplayer. The greatness of that trumps Wells massive overpay.
Yep
I lean towards the Bautista contract. Now, this past year doesn’t really count, because he was arb eligible and we would have paid him 8-10M regardless (not to say we didn’t get surplus value, just it had nothing to do with the contract). But we have him for 4Y/56M with an option, and the starting point for him would have been Werth’s contract as a FA…so there’s a ton of expected surplus value.
Escobar…it was a real coup for sure. Couple it with the extension, and maybe 40-50M in surplus value, depending on what Pastornicky does. Still trails Bautista and Wells in terms of creating surplus value in my view.
If you purely use a talent filter, I’d still put Bautista there (he could have left), but you’re screening out some of the transactions
I was tempted to vote for the Bautista option. Unlike every other votable option his wasn’t a talent exchange (or even an addition really) so I guess I kinda disqualified for being so different from the other options.
I dunno, I really do appreciate having a top quality shortstop. Yunel last year was worth 4.3 WAR a little over half of what Jose provided (but still excellent) at a $ figure less then half of what Jose makes. Of course after a certain point you can’t just scale but still.
I guess what I’m saying is that I think arguing that getting Yunel has been AA’s best move isn’t all that farfetched a statement.
My opinion anyways.
I mean, I don’t think it’s crazy in that it looks like a great deal. But objectively, I’d still put both the Wells deal and Bautista deal ahead. I’d say:
1) Bautista
2) Wells
3) Escobar
4) Lawrie
5) Morrow
6) Doc trade + Taylor/Wallace and Wallace/Gose flips
7) Rasmus (jury is still out)
I’d put the Lawrie trade close to the Escobar deal, though in a year it could be far ahead or fall back. Morrow, could certainly move higher if the FIP~ERA in the future. And same that applies to Lawrie applies to Doc deal, if the prospects turn out that rockets way up.
One addendum… if AA had actually kept Napoli (which I think we can all mostly agree was his worst move) Wells deal would have won easily. BUt evs, can’t win ’em all right.
Though to be fair
For the purpose of the above poll, pobably not meant to be separated (Gose is considered part of the Halladay deal). But analytically, I still would
Or, for that matter foresight
We won’t really have a true answer this question for another 5 to 15 years, if at all.
Apologies
Could have aworn I hit reply
by BuffaloSojourn on Feb 12, 2012 1:47 AM EST up reply actions
Two contenders
For me it is between the Wells trade and the Halladay trade. I’m trying to think about this not just in terms of the net benefit to the club, but also what the degree of difficulty was with regards to pulling them off. Before the trade happened you could not find one person who would tell you that Vernon Wells was movable. The fact that the Angels whiffed in free agency and had money burning a hole in their pocket did contribute to it.
It remains astonishing nonetheless. If AA hadn’t flipped Napoli afterwards it wouldn’t be a discussion.
With respect to the Halladay deal AA had in some respects the opposite problem: everyone knew it was going to happen. This tends to result in a buyers market (even when an all-timer like Doc is involved). The jury is still out on Drabek, and Gose and d’Arnaud still haven’t made it to the show, but if two out of these three guys pans out the deal becomes very impressive under the circumstances.
This makes a lot of sense...
… In many of the other trades/transactions, AA has tried to pick up players undervalued by their own organization, and he has done so quite skilfully and successfully. The Bautista extension was a bit of a gamble. But the Wells trade was pure magic, and the Halladay trade may work out that way, too. Both of these transactions were pulled off under incredibly difficult circumstances.
If d'arnaud turns out to be as good as he can be, then the deal I think is a win for us.
Its trading one year of halladay for a few years of a (hopefully) star.
In AA we trust.
Escobar or Bautista
Any one of us would have traded Wells, so, to me, the amazing part about that trade wasn’t Anthopoulos moving him, it’s that Reagins wanted him.
The Escobar trade and the Bautista extension, on the other hand, had some people scratching their heads at the time. To me, the “best move” is not just the one that provides the most surplus value, it’s the one that improves the team the most that wasn’t obviously the right move.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Escobar Trade
I loved the signing of Alex Gonzalez in that off season. I thought the team friendly contract he signed at the time represented major value for the team, especially considering the thin market at SS.
Flipping that contract later for a good, young, up the middle talent like Escobar was even better! A shrewdly played combination of moves that ultimately improved the club! Plugging a hole at a premium position like SS with a guy like YE for years at very little expense (looking at the big picture), makes this a deal a winner!
The Wells trade was total magic. My arm got tired from all the high-fiving with my fellow Jays fans at work.
Go Jays!
You have proper Jays friends at work?
That just makes me jealous.
@VagabondBansal
AA getting Escobar was a wish come true for me.
Ever since seeing Esco play in his second season in ATL I’d been whining about never being able to get him as our SS. Then one day AA made it happen.
That day was on par with the day I found out Michael J. Fox was Canadian!
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Feb 11, 2012 6:05 PM EST reply actions
So hard to choose just one.
Voted Wells trade, but even Santos trade in 2-3 years might be best move.
Best or most impressive?
The Wells trade is probably the best trade for the Jays, but it was also sort of a no-brainer. While I don’t doubt it took remarkable self-control for AA to keep himself from giggling when Tony Reagins enquired about Vernon Wells, AA showed more acuity in most other trades.
The most impressive to me was trading Wallace for Gose, when Wallace was generally regarded as the notably better prospect; but the trade showed really strong talent evaluation and analysis. The Marcum-Lawrie trade shows a similar excellence in talent evaluation, while the Rasmus deal showed a great ability to construct a deal with lesser pieces.
by gabrielsyme on Feb 12, 2012 12:35 AM EST reply actions 6 recs
I loved the Rasmus trade..
Regardless if he pans out or not (hoping he does), trading away relievers/bit parts for Rasmus – a potential star. Loved that trade.
Of course Lawrie, Wells & Escobar were great trades too.
I am the one who knocks.
Wells
I think you have to go with Wells, simply because the financial flexibility alone allows the Jays to lock up good talent now when it is still relatively cheap. It’s also best on a totally personal, selfish level that I don’t have to watch Wells have a terrible season. Everything I’ve read or listened to indicates that he’s a nice, funny guy who is a big of part of his community and really cares. Watching 30K boo him, justified or not, always puts a real sour note in my enjoyment of the game.
I agree Wells was good
because it allows us to become bidders for the likes of Fielder and Darvish.
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