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Sixteen, Clumsy, and Shy: How Weird Are Knuckleballers' Arsenals?

Ever wonder just how different the arsenals of knuckleballers are, relative to the rest of pitchers? Well, we already discussed how pitcher arsenals are analogous to ecological communities and how some of the statistical techniques community ecologists use can be transferred to describing and testing relationships for pitchers. Operating under that assumption, I used a technique called Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) to graphically display pitcher arsenals.

I downloaded the pitch type usage of all pitchers last season who threw 150 innings or more and used a multivariate method called nonmetric multidimensional scaling to graphically display how pitch usage differs from one pitcher to another. The first step is to create a matrix of how different each pitcher's arsenal is from every other pitcher (called dissimilarity scores and based on the Bray-Curtis index of community dissimilarity). Once this matrix has been created, the technique compares each of those scores to one another and assigns each pitcher's arsenal a set of (x,y) coordinates in two-dimensional space. All that remains is to plot those coordinates and we see similarities and differences between pitcher arsenals. Now, the axes do not actually mean anything. Although we can test variables to see how they correspond to this ordination, all the figure below shows is how pitcher arsenals differ in relation to one another.

Ordination_knuckleballers_medium

I think the results speak for themselves but I'll just quickly say that Dan Haren and Roy Halladay are separated due to cutter usage. R.A. Dickey, while still quite far removed from the rest of the pack is nowhere near as far away as Tim Wakefield because he uses his fastball more (22% of the time vs. 9% of the time) and his knuckleball less (75% vs. 89%).

Anyway, this doesn't really mean anything, I just thought you might find it interesting.

Thanks to The Smiths for today's title.

Comment 19 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Great work!

I have never heard of Bray-Curtis dissimilarity until you mentioned it, so I looked it up. I thought the Sørensen similarity index equation (QS = 2C / (A+B), where C is the number of species shared by both samples and A & B are the numbers of species in samples A & B) made more sense to me. Plus, it got me right back to BC dissimilarity (QS = 1 – BC). =P

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.

by Frag on Feb 12, 2012 7:28 PM EST reply actions  

I get the idea.

but I have no idea what you are saying.

by ddbumpus on Feb 12, 2012 7:36 PM EST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

Quite similar to my Calculus teacher with a thick Cantonese accent..

I grew frustrated trying to understand each individual word she said and instead focused on grasping the overall concept and trying to understand diagrams/equations. Great work as always jessef and I swear, one day I will be able to comment with intelligent comments that contribute to a larger idea XD

Need a new signature? Why not Zoidberg?

by dannyofbosnia on Feb 12, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, it's pretty complex

and I did a horrible job of explaining it. As you said, the figure is really the gist of it. And pointing that out was an intelligent comment that contributed to the larger idea!

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Feb 13, 2012 10:53 AM EST up reply actions  

From working with PCA (Principle Component Analysis)

Each axis represented a principal component of the variation within the data set – Axis 1 would be the line that accounts for the most variability (‘line of best fit’) and Axis 2 would be the orthogonal ‘line of best fit’. Now, I don’t know much about NMS (never worked with it), but it is an ordination technique like PCA.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Feb 12, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Personally

PCA was my least favorite concept to learn when I took biostatistics last semester.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.

by Frag on Feb 12, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions  

That's basically it

to Minor Leaguer / Pikachu, think of it this way:

each variable (whether it is pitch-type or species) represents one dimension.

this ordination technique attempts to condense what is really a multi-dimensional solution (six, seven, whatever number of different pitch types) into (in this case) two dimensions. So, as Frag noted above, the axes represent holistic changes (broader variation in arsenals), not individualistic ones (variation in specific pitch usage)

A small note on different ordination techniques, since Frag brought it up. PC Ord tends to become distorted when species (or, in our case, pitch types) are not shared across all the communities, which is why I chose to use NMDS in this case.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Feb 13, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I assume it means...

People who throw knuckleballs throw almost solely knuckleballs. All of their other pitches suck which is why they throw the knuckler to begin with.

Man who has four balls cannot walk

by Beer Leaguer on Feb 12, 2012 11:53 PM EST via Android app reply actions  

Sounds like the interest level was overstated to begin with

by MjwW on Feb 13, 2012 3:05 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree.

It was all about AA being AA (due diligence) being blown out of proportion.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 13, 2012 6:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Further proof

That Doc isn’t a mere mortal. He does not throw a knuckleball and yet he’s still able to separate himself from the pack.

by siggian on Feb 13, 2012 9:14 AM EST reply actions  

The first ordination I did had relievers

Mariano Rivera was in the middle of nowhere

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Feb 13, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Doc and Mo, sitting in a zone! S-T-R-I-K-E-O-U-T

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.

by Frag on Feb 13, 2012 11:10 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

First comes heat. Then comes a cutter. Then comes a broken bat grounder to short.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 13, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions   2 recs

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