BBB Community Overall Prospect #16 - David Cooper vs. Asher Wojciechowski
by MjwW on Feb 13, 2012 9:44 PM EST
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PrintAs the winner of the #10 pitcher poll, Asher Wojciechowski faces off against David Cooper. As usual, use Rec's to vote. The poll will stay open through sometime Thursday afternoon/evening when the next poll will go up.
Also, based on the limited feedback received about what to do once Woj (the new #10 pitcher, which is as far as the original list went), is on, we're going to elect a #11 pitcher to face the position players rather than putting the remaining position players on by default. So, there's a poll at the bottom to determine a new #11 pitcher, so vote there as well.
RESULTS:
Chad Jenkins - 56.7%
David Cooper - 43.3%
CANDIDATES:
David Cooper - 1B (age 25 on 4/1/2012); 6'0", 200 lbs; Bats/Throws: Left/Left
Acquired: 2008 Draft (1-17)
Pre-2011 Rankings: BP #15, Fangraphs #23 (Sickels: others of note)
Pre-2012 Rankings: N/A (Sickels: others of note)
Asher Wojciechowski - SP (age 23 on 4/1/2012); 6'4", 235 lbs; Bats/Throws: Right/Right
Acquired: 2010 Draft (1s-41)
Pre-2011 Rankings: Sickels #5 (B), Fangraphs #8
Pre-2012 Rankings: Sickels #11 (B-), BP #18, Fangraphs #13
COMMUNITY LIST:
1. Travis d'Arnaud - 90.6%
2. Anthony Gose - 65.9%
3. Drew Hutchison - 56.7%
4. Jake Marisnick - 97%
5. Noah Syndergaard - 74.4%
** Nestor Molina - 75.8%
6. Deck McGuire - 65.7%
7. Justin Nicolino - 55.0%
8. Adeiny Hechavarria - 75%
9. Daniel Norris - 87.9%
10. AJ Jimenez - 55.3%
11. Aaron Sanchez - 79.3%
12. Carlos Perez - 60.7%
13. Adonys Cardona - 65.8%
14. Joel Carreno - 51.2%
15. Chad Jenkins - 56.7%
NEXT UP:
Pitcher: TBD
Position Player: Marcus Knecht
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My view, for the moment
Tough one. I have Woj much higher on my personal list than the community list – 6th pitcher. I like him over Cooper, though I like Cooper over other pitchers on the list (Carreno, Jenkins). Woj should be at least a decent reliever, and I think there’s a good chance he can start, so someone at least, and a small chance he ends up as a good back end starter. His numbers last year weren’t great, but that’s largely due to a bad 6 week stretch when the Jays apparently tinkered with his mechanics. Had some very good outings at the end of the season.
Cooper at least looks like a starter for a weak team
Woj may never make it out of the minors
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Feb 13, 2012 10:00 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
actually Cooper is likely* a starter for a weak team, not at least
That would imply a higher ceiling
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
True
But he’s fairly close. As pitching prospects go, he’s pretty low risk – low ceiling also, but basically his reasonable floor (barring injuries, completely unforeseen collapse) is a reliever, and probably at least a decent one.
Yeah I'll take WoJo too
I’d say his reasonable floor is indeed a reliever, but with his potentially plus fastball/slider combo it’s entirely possible he’ll become a late inning guy. I’ve also heard his change up is coming along nicely and if it clicks for him he could stick as a starter.
Like most of the pitchers at this point though, I find it unlikely he’ll start with the Jays, simply because of the high floor guys ahead of him in AA and the high ceiling guys set to leap frog him in A.
I'd think Cooper's floor is much higher
he’s basically major league ready. He may be a AAAA type but at least we know for sure he’ll contribute. Wojciechowski has a non-zero chance of not making it to the majors.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
But a Quad A player is basically the definition of replacement level
So that contribution (as a AAAA player) is basically worth nothing.
that was an interesting way to phrase it
Wojciechowski has a non-zero chance of not making it to the majors.
had to read it twice
I am the Walrus
Woj
His struggles were exaggerated this past season, and he still has the stuff to be a valuable starter. Cooper had a great season, but everything has to go right for him to be a valuable starter.
true
but nearly everything has to go right for Wojo to be a valuable starter (I mean, we’re talking 75th percentile at the very least) whereas Cooper’s projection of providing some small amount of value is like 20th percentile – Wojo definitely has far more chance of being a good player, but Cooper’s far more likely to provide any at all.
Give me another unspellable Blue Jay.
Borderline 1B/DH hitters with minimal defensive acumen are the most fungible things in baseball, so I really don’t put much value on that result. AAA is filled with borderline sluggers. If Woj turns out to be a solid 4th starter (say a 4.30 ERA) that’s much more valuable, and he has the potential to be better than that. Another possibility is that he’s moved to the bullpen, where a number of observers think he could be a good late-inning guy with his power arm- that too is more valuable than all but Cooper’s best-case scenario.
I’m actually higher on Cooper than most professional evaluators (or so it seems to me), but this is still a relatively easy call for me.
I think you're vastly overrating the chances of Wojo being a Major Leaguer
let alone a good one. he’s not that young, didn’t pitch that well ARL, is far from the Majors, and is a pitcher. Cooper could step in tomorrow and likely provide a several season career.
as in
we are agreed that Wojo has much more upside. I think you are GREATLY overrating the chance he turns that potential into results, though.
I disagree
Wojo has the profile to be at least a reliever…the real question was whether he could handle starting. He has the frame to do it, the question is pitch reperatoire. He has the arsenal to be a reliever. If the Jays wanted him to be a reliever, and focussed him there, he could probably contribute relatively soon.
Part of the reason he wasn;t very good was a disasterours stretch in the middle of the season when his mechanics were tinkered with. He was flat out dominant at the end of the season, and very good at the beginning.
he was never flat out dominant
he didn’t even top 20% Ks in a single month! And he was old for the league!
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
From August 1 onwards:
39 IP, 27K, 3 BB (+1 IBB), 0 HR.
So a 9:1 K/BB, ~2.00 FIP. I don’t want to debate the definition of dominant, but I’ll take that everyday and twice and Sunday thanks.
And he wasn’t old for the league in the sense of using old as a pejorative to discount performance. He was older, but it was his first professional season and it’s perfectly normal for a college pitcher (especially one from a smaller college) to start in high-A. Just as neither Deck McGuire nor Matt Harvey were old either. You can’t look at age charts and distributions and toss around labels, context matters.
He's really not even that far from the majors either
He won’t be up this year but he’ll be starting in AA, which for Blue Jays pitchers is the highest minors
I agree the odds are against him being a valuable starter
Though I’d say the same applies to pretty much every pitching prospect, but I’ll accept the proposition it applies more to Wojo than say the average pitching prospect in High-A ball.
But, you’re forgetting the fact that he can also provide value as a reliever, just as Cooper is unlikely to be a valuable full time 1B, but could provide value as a platoon bat
right
but there is a significant – maybe 35%? – that he never becomes a league-average reliever. the chances that he’s a league average starter are probably around 15%, just by virtue of being a pitcher far from the Majors. Cooper has probably an 80% chance of providing any value at all, and maybe 33% chance of providing more than 3 wins while he’s under his 6 years of control
I’d roughly agree on that breakdown for Wojo – 35% doesn’t contribute much of anything (or a couple okay seasons and not much else, which we would still basically consider a bust). 50% as a good reliever, to varying degrees of “goodness”, and 15% a good SP. I think this roughly links up with what I drew above in my chart.
I’m a little confused by what you mean by 3 WAR in 6 control years. If you mean 3WAR over 6 years, that’s 0.5 a year, which is pretty close to replacement, and there’s a not a whole lot of value there – it’s basically close to being a AAAA player. If you mean a 3 WAR/year player, then 33% is way too high…I’d put it similar to the 15% for Wojo.
Basically, my argument for Wojo would be, they have roughly similar chances of being league average SP/1B (so far as I ca tell with the info I’ve seen – obviously there’s major issues with incomplete info), so that more or less cancels out. Wojo probably has a higher bust factor, but I see him as more likely to provide value as a part time player (reliever) than Cooper is (bench player). You can basically see that in my chart above, and that’s what puts him ahead for me. Obviously, it’s perfectly reasonable to see it differently.
I meant 3 WAR or more total over 6 seasons
which isn’t good by any stretch of the imagination but is something. and yes, I agree with the last paragraph. maybe I’m too bearish on Wojo/bullish on Cooper (doubt that very much) but that’s how I feel
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