Bluebird Banter Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects: 40-36
After Tom got us started with 50-46 and hugo continued the list with 45-41, it's now my turn to get you informed on numbers 40 through 36 on our long list of Jays prospects.
40. Daniel Barnes, RHP - Barnes was a relief pitcher with the Lansing Lugnuts last season, where he was incredibly dominant. He held opponents to a ridiculous .225 OBP (I didn't count intentional walks), while striking out 39.5% of the batters in relief. I looked for pitchers in the recent (2006-2011) history of the Midwest league with similar numbers, and I could only find a few pitchers who were too old for the league. Barnes, a college draftee, was also relatively old for the league at 21, but not old enough for us to ignore his outrageous dominance. He was briefly tried as a starter, but in his two tries Barnes gave up too many hits, though the rest of his numbers were fine in that small sample. He could get another chance next year, and he should start the year at Dunedin while looking to move to New Hampshire before the season ends.
39. Mike McDade, 1B - Mike McDade is a switch-hitter who is often praised for his defense at first. Unfortunately, that's not a premium defensive position, so he will have to hit well to provide value in the big leagues. While he got off to a flying start this past season, he then had a knee injury which did seem to affect his numbers, as he was very unimpressive in both July and August. McDade did win the Eastern League Home Run Derby, and he does have some power, but his walk rate is not promising at all. McDade did cut down on the strikeouts in 2011, but he'll have to improve his overall performance at the plate to become a decent first baseman.
38. Eric Arce, 1B - Eric Arce is an intriguing one: he was drafted by the Jays in 2010 but decided to go to college, then changed his mind about the whole college thing to get drafted again, and the Jays landed him with their second try. Arce is quite diminutive for a first baseman, but he's got some real power. It helped him become the Gulf Coast League's best hitter (100+ PA, age <20) with a line of .268/.437/.621. He had a relatively low BABIP, because he hit almost every ball into the air, and that will be something to watch for as he moves up to tougher leagues, where trying to hit every ball out might not work as well. Arce's debut was promising, but he has a long way to go.
37. Mark Biggs, RHP - Biggs was drafted in the 8th round of the 2011 MLB Draft. Don't let that fool you, however, as Biggs got a big bonus more befitting a 2nd round pick. Biggs broke a vertebra in his back after making only one start in the 2011 High School season, which made teams hesitant to pick him early. The Jays nabbed him relatively late, hoping that Biggs could return to the 90-93 mph fastball velocity he had before his injury, or even better, given his solid pitching frame. Biggs could turn out to be a very clever pick by the Jays if he lives up to his potential.
36. Griffin Murphy, LHP - Whereas fellow 2010 draft pick Justin Nicolino started in Vancouver and dominated, Murphy started in the Gulf Coast League and struggled. While he did strike out a decent 21.3% of the batters he faced, he gave up too many hits and homers, without keeping the walks to a minimum or getting a good number of groundballs. On top of that, he's already 21 and that would normally mean he should be at least in Lansing. Murphy has got the draft pedigree, but little else at the moment, so he needs to start doing well to remain on this list.
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I guess I’m higher on McDade than most, but I like his power potential. Combine that he’s an excellent defensive 1B (mind you, not as important a position as others) and his K% went down, and I do have some hope for him. I’d like to see how he does without the knee injury.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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Oh, and I’d like to see him improve his plate discipline next year.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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he really has to
given what we know about correlations between MiLB and MLB plate discipline, he won’t be capable of being a full-time 1B in the Majors unless he significantly improves his K:BB – the guy only had around a .330 OBA in 2011
Unless he becomes Andres Galarraga. =P
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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sure
Galarraga wasn’t all that good outside of two very good seasons and a few good ones (half his seasons were under 2 WAR)
He was solid for a couple of years in Montreal and in his years in Colorado and Atlanta before the cancer
Most of his under 2 WAR seasons came after he came back from cancer treatment (and he was 39+). He did, however, benefit from the dimensions of Olympic Stadium and the altitude of pre-humidor Coors Field.
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by Minor Leaguer on Feb 15, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with you Frag.
I’m fairly high on McDade as well (similar reasons). Disappointing ranking imo.
I dunno
He’s a 1B/DH so you really, really have to like the bat, and the plate discipline isn’t very good. In a thinner system, he’d be much higher, this is the right ballpark for me (you could move him up or down 5-7 spots and it would still be roughly right, the thing to remember here is that the difference 33, 38 and 43 is just very, very small)
Well, I do like his hitting potential (and his defence is said to be fine). Had he not been injured last year, his numbers might have been a great deal better than they were. Who’s to say plate discipline won’t improve. So this is ballpark for you, that’s fine, it’s your opinion just as it is mine that it’s kind of disappointing.
Sure, and in the end it's only opinion and projection
But we’re talking about a guy who three years running (2009 in Lansing, 2010 in Dunedin and 2012 in NH) a league average bat, which means that even if you translate that to a league average bat in MLB, is a below average player. And basically, it’s not a one-year injury story either.
His plate discipline could improve, but the odds are against it. Even if he makes improvements, he’ll be facing better pitchers, which means he needs to improve significantly to show better numbers, and generally plate discipline is a difficult thing to improve. The single most predictive MiLB stats for MLB success are K% and BB%.
he actually improved a lot in 2011
a year older, but also moving to AA, which is a big step. I’m also quite skeptical about his ability to continue to improve (his plate discipline is better, but still not nearly good enough), but it’s nice when he’s like our 40th best prospect
Have you seen rigorous studies to that effect?
I know people always say that but I have never seen a study that really showed it. If you know of any, please link.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I found this one study from Minor League Ball.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
that's just k-rates, though
and it does not compare how predictive K% and BB% are to isolated power, which would be much more instructive than simply finding that higher strikeout rates are a bad thing. That study seemed like it was a lot of work to debunk a premise that no one would rationally buy anyway.
I really just don’t understand why plate discipline necessarily translates better to the big leagues than power, particularly when it seems like stats for finesse pitchers don’t translate to the majors as well as power pitchers.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Yeah Sickels mentioned this when he begrudgingly did his first system rankings this year
He said any difference you create between teams close to each other is completely artificial. Obviously the Jays are better than most teams but when you start to say that the 25th team is better than the 26th team that holds no weight. Same goes for prospect rankings this low.
by T_Mizz on Feb 16, 2012 10:12 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah
this is one reason why saying “the Jays are 6th best in MLB in hitter ergo let’s upgrade pitching” because the Jays are still well behind the elite offensive teams, but are one of the better hitting teams of the rest of the pack. there’s still plenty of areas to improve
Arce is really intriguing
I wonder about the make-up though, the underage girl stuff was blown out of proportion, but quitting on Florida State after 10 at bats kind of makes me wonder.
Yea its sorta odd that he would change his mind that quickly
by Seal Clubbing on Feb 15, 2012 8:08 PM EST up reply actions
45-41>40-36
Really would rather have the guys just above than these five. I’d suggest that Biggs, Murphy and Barnes are being overrated a little among these guys.
To be fair though
When you’re looking at the 30-50 in any system it’s really a crapshoot when there’s so little public information.
Plus
Eric Arce should be top 40 just because of his name.
Here's my attempt at a witty sig. Didn't really go so well, methinks.
Wise men wonder, while strong men die.
by Cam Oegema on Feb 15, 2012 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I felt the same way,
But then I saw that Wiper will miss this year due to elbow surgery(?) im pretty sure and will miss the next college season. So that goes to why maybe the Jays didn’t sign him as he was an elite talent.
But the comedy gold potential of
Eric tossing a ground ball to Nicolas covering 1B would be priceless…

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