AL East 2012 Team Previews: New York Yankees
by Tom Dakers on Feb 16, 2012 2:06 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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I've asked the other AL East bloggers to write us up a preview of their team for 2012, let us know their team's additions and subtractions as well as a feeling for how their team will do this year.
First up is Travis Goldman from Pinstripe Alley, SB Nation's New York Yankees' blog:
Who was lost: Jesus Montero, Hector Noesi, Bartolo Colon, Jorge Posada, A.J. Burnett?
Offseason recap: The biggest concern this offseason was merely retaining the services of CC Sabathia, who, using the threat of opting out of his contract, signed an extension mere hours before the deadline. After that, it was, if anything, to address the starting rotation. But come January it looked like the roster was set. Nary a rumor had been uttered about the Yanks all winter, even in regards to pitchers like C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish. But then it all happened one night. Out of nowhere we learned that Jesus Montero had been traded for Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda had been signed. The rotation went from a weakness to a strength just like that [snaps fingers]; so much so that they're shopping A.J. Burnett, who's (a close) second to CC in starts for the Yanks since 2009.
2012 Predictions: The lineup will be virtually identical to 2011, save for the DH spot. Jorge Posada saw the most time there last season, but was replaced (way too late in most fans' opinions) in September by Montero. We'll now likely see a DH platoon of Andruw Jones (against LHP) and probably Raul Ibanez or Johnny Damon (against RHB).
A-Rod, who played just 99 games last year, had platelet-rich plasma therapy, so we'll see if that keeps him any healthier. I don't expect the same monster year from Curtis Granderson, but not a big drop off either. Cano is the most dependable hitter in the lineup. I see Teixeira having a bounce-back season after a sub-par 2011. Gardner, though not a great hitter, will force his way into the lineup via defense and baserunning. Swisher's in a contract year, Martin's now guaranteed to be the everyday catcher... Oh, and a guy named Jeter is still playing shortstop.
In 2011, with 60% of the rotation comprised of Burnett, Colon and Freddy Garcia, the club still managed to win 97 games, the most in the AL. Replace Garcia/Colon and Burnett with Pineda and Kuroda, and we're looking at the division winners by a comfortable margin (again), and maybe 100 wins.
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I thought i just heard AJ nixed a trade to the Angels for Abreu
That’s surprising, figured AJ would like a new start.
by craig in calgary on Feb 16, 2012 2:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions
He doesn't want to go to the west coast for some reason
Sun, beaches and a good team apparently don’t agree with him.
I blog, therefore I am.
It's his wife, most likely
His family lives in the Baltimore area. Remember his contract with Toronto that had all the limo rides for his wife to come from Baltimore? California is a long way from home from Mrs. Burnett and by all accounts, she hates flying.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
really, really hoping
Mo, Jeter, and A-Rod fall of a cliff this year..way too much to hope for, but it’s spring I always hope for best case scenarios this time of year.
its unlikely
i googled a list of cliffs in new york of and most of them are upstate
the chances of them all taking a trip up there and then falling off a cliff together is slim to nil
I am the Walrus
by yleviticus on Feb 16, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Catskill mountains aren't too far away...
/there’s still hope
You might reconsider that
if you go to Hawk’s Nest
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawk%27s_Nest,_New_York
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Kobe is a machine, therefore only he can avoid aging with these fancy German procedures
Sorry A-Roid
100 wins eh?
I can’t even disagree with that. With an improvement to their rotation, they are way better than last year.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
pfft, 100 wins is hard to do
I’m not buying that the Yanks are that mighty. They have some old position players and funny things can happen to a pitching rotation. That strength can turn to a weakness real quick if one of C.C.’s knees explode, Pineda gives up too many longballs to lefties in Yankee stadium and Kuroda starts feeling his age.
I’m more scared of the Rays, better pitching in terms of quality and depth, good defense and an ok offence. And everybody’s young and less injury prone.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
the Yanks still have a dominant offense
and even with some Kuroda regression and non-improvement from Pineda, the rotation should be approximately the same or just a little worse than the lightning-in-a-bottle 2011 rotation. this team is going to be very good, and I hate them for it
The Yanks have a dominant offense if everyone is healthy
If a few guys get hurt, suddenly it doesn’t look as good. And that can happen with older guys like A-Rod and Jeter. Gardner, Martin and Cano are the only regulars on the right side of 30 and Martin has a spotty health record.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
you can say that about any team
outside of Martin and maybe A-Rod no players have had serious health problems and they have a few players who are 31. you can’t feasibly expect this team to just collapse out of nowhere. I can potentially see them being a little worse than 2011, but I’d be shocked if they win fewer than 90
You can expect guys not to hit as well in their 30s
You’re a stats guy, you know they shouldn’t have the same production as they did last year. Granted, for most of them it may not be a large dropoff but Jeter and A-Rod at their ages could both fall off a cliff and it wouldn’t be surprising.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
right
but they’re not going to drop multiple wins a piece. I could see maybe a 2-4 win regression from their hitters and maybe one or two from their pitchers (and that’s pushing it with Kuroda+Pineda).
No, they're not if they stay healthy
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I'd say it's more fair to project injuries on older teams than younger teams
It’s a safe bet to assume that the Yanks will have more injuries than Tampa. My point about the injuries goes more to the likelihood of a 100 win season.
100 wins is hard to get and the Yanks would have to have a healthy season to do so, which I don’t think is likely given the age of their 3B, SS, closer and some pitchers (Kuroda and Garcia) and their catcher’s injury record.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
If the Yankee’s win less then 90 with their line-up then I’ll be more then shocked… I’ll start looking for other signs of the apocalypse. A lot (LOT) would have to go wrong for that to happen.
pitching would have to collapse and a few key hitters would have to get hurt.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
sort of like Boston in 2010
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
See 94 Jays
The pitching staff got old fast and lost Ward for the year and the D got really creaky.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 16, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
And when you say right side of 30
They just barely qualify too. Cano is 29. I thought he was younger than that. I guess he just seems younger compared to the guys to his right.
yeah, Cano is 30 in October this year. He just seems young playing for the Yankees
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Didn't say it was
However, Cano, Martin and Gardner are the only Yanks in their prime years (isn’t peak somewhere around 28?). If others regress, they will have to pick up the slack.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
prime years
are typically 28-32 or 33
so basically everyone in the lineup but Arod and Jeter
as you can see
age 26 is right at the cusp of hitting the prime years but I was also wrong because it starts at 27 and significant doesn’t start until after age 32
The Yankees still play in the toughest division in baseball
Even though they don’t have to play themselves, they still have to go against the Rays, Red Sox, and the Jays. All three are very good to good teams and it’s going to be hard for the Yankees to do more than win the season series by a game or two.
Even the OriLOLs will win some against the Yankees.
I think age really catches up with them this year and they struggle to crack 90.
I'm going along with your prediction.
Age catches up (maybe a few injuries and under performances too).
Only on the equinoxes!
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Feb 16, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
The Yankees announced that 25 of their ST games are being broadcast on YES
That makes me jealous.
Does anybody know if Sportsnet has released a ST broadcast schedule for the Jays? You know it’s been too long without baseball when I’m missing Buck and Pat.
hey
i like buck..
how can you not love a man who gets this excited about a johnny mac homer?
spoiler alert: its called a buckgasm
I am the Walrus
Agreed the man pulled off a double play with a broken leg.
Legendary, unique stuff, enunciation is really petty criticism so far as I’m concerned.
I;ve watched that about 10 times in the past 2 days
And it’s as funny the 10th time as the 1st.
The only other baseball clip I think think of that is just as funny whoever many times you listen to it is the Cleveland guy going ballistic about Valbuena (and the rest of the team)
“Oh, Valbuena! Valbuena! Valbuena! Valbuena!…You know, people are saying he should be sent to Columbus. I say send him to Mahoning Valley! They haven;t even started their season yet!”
Just responding to that post,
My sacasm detector went off. Maybe it malfunctioned….lol
here
On Rogers Sportsnet:
3/6/2011 Toronto vs. Pittsburgh 1:00PM (SPORTSNET)
3/13/2011 Tampa Bay vs. Toronto 1:00PM (SPORTSNET ONE)
3/23/2011 Toronto vs. NY Yankees 7:00PM (SPORTSNET EAST, ONTARIO & PACIFIC)
3/30/2011 Toronto vs. Tampa Bay 4:00PM (SPORTSNET)
Sportsnet Radio The FAN 590 & Sportsnet Radio The FAN 960:
2/26/2011 Toronto vs. Detroit 1:05 FAN 590
2/27/2011 Detroit vs. Toronto 1:05 FAN 590, FAN 960
3/5/2011 Toronto vs. Detroit 1:05 FAN 960
3/6/2011 Pittsburgh vs. Toronto 1:05 FAN 590, FAN 960
3/12/2011 Toronto vs. Pittsburgh 1:05 FAN 590, FAN 960
3/13/2011 Toronto vs. Tampa Bay 1:05 FAN 960
3/19/2011 NY Yankees vs. Toronto 1:05 FAN 590, FAN 960
3/20/2011 Toronto vs. Minnesota 1:05 FAN 590, FAN 960
3/26/2011 Philadelphia vs. Toronto 1:05 FAN 590, FAN 960
3/27/2011 Toronto vs. Baltimore 1:05 FAN 590, FAN 960
When I saw that I was like woah so many games on TV.
Then I realized it was only the 4 I already knew about
I don't always have exams, but when I do they are DURING the Jays home opener.
Are you returning the answers to them?
just want to know if i should be looking for them, its always fun to read the comments on exchange pieces like this.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
i mean a jays outlook report
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 16, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
yankees reach 100 wins..
unlikely, everyone in the division got better, except the jays(i see them winning 80ish games again) and O’s. they will probably finish around 93-95 wins, which maybe enough to take the division from the rays but i’m not going to predict that.
How did the Red Sox get better?
I mean, they will probably do better, but if anything they got worse this off-season by getting rid of their starting SS.
I won’t even get into the ways the Jays did get better.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 16, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno that they'll probably do better
They’ve got positive regression candidates (Crawford, Buchholz) and negative ones (Ellsbury, Pedroia). Not sure it doesn’t basically wash out
We definitely got better, sox will prob do about the same, os should do the same. Yankees will improve. Rays, I’m not so sure about
by STZ513 on Feb 16, 2012 8:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Rays will have Jennings and Moore for the whole year
Those are the best additions any AL East team has made. The Rays will be tough next year.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Im not one to put too much on a rookie pitcher
just look at drabek last year. I know Moore is rated higher than he was, but still
Jeremy Hellickson, QED?
he of the 5.57 K/9, 3.43 BB/9, and 35% groundball-rate.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
You don't really think that's his true talent, right?
He severely underperformed peripheral-wise in 2011.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
still
plenty of other rookie pitchers who performed well. Luebke, Worley, Minor, Nova, Britton, etc.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
i'll play.
luebke: 140 innings, not a full season
worley: ditto luebke
minor: 82 ip
nova: 165 ip, nice season but nothing to write home over
britton: basically, the same as nova
So you’ve basically mentioned a whole bunch of pitchers who either pitched < 140 ip with nice rate stats or a bunch of pitchers who pitched ~ 165 ip with ok rate stats.
As long as Hellickson, I expect that his peripherals are a better indicator of how good he actually is than his .233 babip last year.
And, yes, it’s possible that Matt Moore will pitch 180+ innings and post an xFIP < 3.50. But the odds are almost certainly against it.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I dunno about Tex.
His peripherals for the last three years are showing a downward trend.
Biggest weakness:
The D on the LH side of the infield is going to be bad.
Biggest strength:
The Yanks BP is going to be good.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 16, 2012 5:28 PM EST reply actions
He really wasn't even that bad last year
and his BABIP was ridiculously low. Have to expect some kind of rebound.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I'm not sure how much of an improvement should be expected out of Pineda and Kuroda
Colon and Garcia had unexpectedly good years last year. I mean, I would definitely take Pineda and Kuroda over them, no question, and they will most likely outshine Colon and Garcia this year. With that said, I would not expect more than a win or two improvement on last year.
i dont know about pineda
His second half worried me. And kuroda can’t keep the same level of play forever
by STZ513 on Feb 16, 2012 9:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
his second half failures
were pretty much just BABIP regression. his K and BB rates didn’t change much
I agree about the pitching, but let's not forget their offense makes up for a lot of that
Yes they having some “aging stars” in Jeter and ARod, but those guys aren’t likely to fall off a cliff this year and they are still pretty productive at the plate.
Their lineup from top to bottom just doesn’t have many holes. Brett Gardner who hits 9th most of the time had a .345 OBP last year. They can slug their way past the odd bad pitching performance in 2012, just like they could last year.
by shuswapslugger on Feb 16, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
If you look at the average OPS of the yanks 9 position players last year, versus the Jays, they are only off by a few points, both essentially .800. That’s a touch cheating since I counted Lawrie’s small sample OPS equally, but even if that goes down 100 points, the overall average OPS only goes down 11. I think we can be around there this year.
The starting pitching is the real problem.
by interestingmonkey on Feb 16, 2012 11:42 PM EST reply actions
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