Why the Jays can make the playoffs
by dshemie8 on Feb 17, 2012 7:41 PM EST
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The jays have great young talent and one of the best bullpens and here is the projected rotation:
5.Dustin Mcgowan and maybe Kyle Drabek
Ricky Romero is very effective against left handed batters , he is durable and has a great change-up. Brandon Morrow gets alot of strikeouts and he can pitch in key situations. Brett Cecil works hard can challenge hitters and he is very good against left handed batters. Henderson Alvarez is a very good young pitcher who throws lots of strikes. Dustin Mcgowan has mid 90s fastball, change-up,curveball and slider and he can dominate. Finally, Kyle Drabek has a great arm with alot of movements on his pitches.
Now the batting order is also really good which will look like this:
1.Yunel Escobar is building power at the plate andhas an electric bat and gets walks
2.Kelly Johnson is very patient , a nice power stroke and a good speed
3.Jose Bautista as we all know has great power,drives in runs and gets lots of walks.
4.Adam Lind has great batting eye and power,great swing,hits for average and racks up doubles homeruns and rbi.
5.Brett Lawrie has great pop in his bat, can steal bases and can rack up rbi.
6.Colby Rasmus has good speed and power at the plate and takes walks but he will need to play better
7.Edwin Encarnacion is a great run producer, gets lots of doubles and has some power.
8.Eric Thames has power and is good against right handed batters.
9.J.P Arencibia has great power and gets alot of rbi.
So the jays fans should look forward to the upcoming season
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Did someone get their name legally changed to Adam Lind?
by ABsteve on Feb 17, 2012 8:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Some guy who takes walks and hits for average apparently.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Feb 17, 2012 8:13 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
Correct me if I am wrong
Don’t lefties actually do much better against Romero than righties do?
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Feb 17, 2012 8:14 PM EST via Android app reply actions
That is an awfully simplified way to look at things
If you just looked at the positives of every team, all of them would have the chance to make the playoffs. There is a lot to look forward to though
by Aidin on Feb 17, 2012 8:15 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure they would
A lot of teams just do not have the talent, the Jays have it, but again they need a lot to go right.
by T_Mizz on Feb 18, 2012 12:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
You could be a lot more helpful.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Feb 18, 2012 9:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Adam Lind has great batting eye?
The scouting report neglects to mention Lind’s other eye, the “repeatedly swing at pitches out of the zone eye”.
the scouting reports haven't been updated in a while
Lind never hit less than .299 at any level in the minors, and the scouting report reflects that.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
They do have a chance
If the league adds the new wildcard spot this season. Otherwise, the yearly bloodbath that is the AL East will relegate them once again to “secretly impressive also-ran” status.
The playoff odds of the Jays are easy to sum up. If everything goes right – the team stays healthy, the younger players play to potential and the older players return to top form – absolutely the Jays are right in the thick of any playoffs.
However, years were everything goes right are pretty rare for any team, and the Jays roster still isn’t deep enough in talent to really make a run yet. I don’t think it’s far off, but it’s just not there this year.
There's always a chance of this happening...
In as much as I have a chance to be Scarlett Johansen’s boy toy, but I’m also well aware that I have a slightly better chance of winning the lottery both of which might be better than the Jays actually winning the AL East this year.
I’m personally not counting on any of the above happening as much as I would want it to happen.
It’s not really the Jays year but as several of the above posters have pointed out the Jays are close.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 17, 2012 10:42 PM EST reply actions
Although still a far shot to playoffs, I'm excited to see jays this year.
I think it is the sense of improvement each year and a hope for betterment of the future. In this regard that is AAs best impact: giving hopes to the fans.
Definitely a good lineup
but the pitching is one potential Yu Darvish away from competing.
I would’ve been worried as a Rays fan if the Jays had gotten Darvish, but they’re still a very good pitcher away from being a threat in the division. There really isn’t much after Romero and the occasional awesome Morrow, of whom I am a huge fan but am skeptical that he will ever reach his potential in actual results.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 17, 2012 11:15 PM EST reply actions
They could make the playoffs if a bunch of things go right
It’s just not likely. They actually have a very good team. It’s just the AL East is a very tough division.
If by "if a bunch of things go right," you mean a bunch of things go wrong for the other teams in the division,
then I agree. But on their own, I don’t think they’re the 90+ win team they need to be to make the playoffs as the team is currently constructed.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
yeah no
this team has a ton of talent our lineup can pack quite a punch, we have a hell of a bullpen. If the starters can hold their own and keep the games close, there is no reason why we can’t be in the race.
Its not like if everyone does well we still have a bunch of average guys, we have plenty of superstars in the making.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
The rotation isn't good enough.
And the offense, while good, isn’t as good as the Yankees or Sox to make up the difference.
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
what do you mean not good enough
did you see what the yankees had last season? seriously?
This team will shock you this year, I bet my life savings on it
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
would*
not really, but still point made!
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't be that confident
But I tend towards your end…if things go right here, we can win 90 games. It’s not likely in my view (I’d say more 82-85 is the median), but if they break right, we should be good enough on our own to be in the hunt without relying on other’s sucking
you think this rotation is good enough at the moment?
I don’t even think it’s on par with the Red Sox rotation. It’s far behind the Rays’ and Yankees’ atm
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I think its good enough
if things go right it can get us in the race and playoffs yes
Would i like an upgrade ? Hell yes,
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
eeeeh
I don’t see it. I like the optimism, but the rotation, at this very moment, is below average. Even if a LOT of things go right, it’s hard to see it being as good as the Yankees’ rotation, which is actually very good at the moment.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I wouldn't say below average.
I don't always have exams, but when I do they are DURING the Jays home opener.
average rotation
with an above average offense and bullpen
I like those odds
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
up against
two elite offenses with average-plus rotations and good bullpens and defense, and one average-plus offense with above average rotation, average bullpen and elite defense
yeah
I’m not going to be booking any hotel rooms for the playoffs, but if we are close and in the race
I certainty won’t be surprised. remember the original point in this chain of comments.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
so you agree with the original comment
I don’t think they’re the 90+ win team they need to be to make the playoffs as the team is currently constructed.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
BOOM. ROASTED.
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
yep
that will get you in the good books. Keep it up
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
What are good books?
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
yeah no
if a lot of things go right we can make it
We don’t need the other teams to completely fall apart to do it.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
the original point was that we aren't good enough
I don’t see what’s objectionable about that.
he didn’t say “there is no possible way the Jays make the playoffs”, of course every team has a chance. but I don’t think we have a good chance of making it at all
it was that the other teams
need to have a bunch of other things go wrong for us to do it.
I don’t think so.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, this
That;s what Sandals was saying. And I disagree. If things go very right for us, we should be right there.
by MjwW on Feb 19, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
well yeah
if all of our good players progress and we don’t suffer any significant regression then yeah, but that isn’t at all likely. it’s going to be extremely tough if none of the Rays, Yanks and Sox – and don’t forget Angels/Rangers for WC – have poor years
nobodys doubting its likeliness
people seem to lose sight in long chains like this….
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
thats not what he said
a step is not a bunch of things going wrong in my opinion.
If all 3 teams have things go right, no we won’t make it. But those are odds are even more insane, aren’t they?
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Everything went impossibly badly for the Red Sox last year
they still won 90 games. The Rays who won 90 games got even better. Yankees got better.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
yes
im not saying on paper we have the better team, but its baseball crazy things happen, we all witnessed it on the last day of the regular season.
Im just saying if things break right, we have the talent to take advantage.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Okay
so by “things break right” are you including “some other teams falling off the cliff a la Red Sox 2011” or not?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
ugh
i read it and knew i implied stuff like that, which isn’t really what I’m thinking
It doesn’t have to be a super collapse for us to win like they did.
I don’t really know what to expect from the sox this year, i don’t know how many wins they will have without collapsing like they did.
I just think we have a chance to be in the playoffs and its not that much of a long shot. that’s it.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Last year
The WC winner was 90 wins. With 5 or so really good teams beating each other up, it’s unlikely to be much higher this year.
If things break right, we can get to 90 games.
So I disagree
by MjwW on Feb 19, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not the point
I agree that’s going to happen (my comment directly below). But that’s not what Bowling Guy said.
IF (IF!) we get to 90 wins because we way outperform expectations, it should be close to the number needed to win the WC, without requiring a bunch of regression
Do you even think the wild card is coming out of the AL East this year?
I think Rangers and Angels are going to both win 90 plus. They don’t have to play AL east as much
Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"
by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Feb 19, 2012 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Read what I said
I agree with that. It’s also completely beside the point that was originally made
by MjwW on Feb 19, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yessss
it always gets lost and leads to craziness keep on point!
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
i know, I missed that
but how is that besides the point? The question wasn’t “if the Jays win 90 games do they have a chance”, it was “are the Jays a 90+ win team”
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Original point:
REMO said:
They could make the playoffs if a bunch of things go right
SnP rebutted:
If by “if a bunch of things go right,” you mean a bunch of things go wrong for the other teams in the division then I agree
and then he said
But on their own, I don’t think they’re the 90+ win team they need to be to make the playoffs as the team is currently constructed.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Right
But no one really disagrees about that. I agree, BG agrees that they are very unlikely to win 90.
The question is, if things break right and they do get near or to 90, can they make the playoffs? My answer is, there’s a very good chance (conditional on the low likelihood of actually winning around 90).
Nah, I think what bowling guy is arguing is that
if a LOT of things go right, then the Jays can make the playoffs, but SnP said that even if a LOT of things go right, the Jays still can’t make the playoffs without other teams falling off.
I lean towards the latter, but whatever.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Feb 19, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
BOOM. ROASTED
In all seriousness, this is heading towards a silly battle of minor semantics
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
true
I’m about all talked out on the subject, time to go browse something else
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
remember the division
Yankees
Above average rotation. Well above average defense. Terrific offense and bullpen.
Rays
Average (slightly above?) offense. Above average-ish bullpen. Terrific defense and rotation.
Red Sox
Average-ish bullpen. Above average rotation. Superb defense. Terrific offense.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
It's been improved this offseason.
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
Well above average? On the right side of the infield and in the corners, sure, but the left side of the infield and CF are pretty bad, Martin’s defense is average at best.
The only "bad" defender is Jeter
Granderson had a bad year with the glove, but he’s closer to average than bad. Rodriguez is still quite solid defensively.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Not according to Baseball Reference. A-Rods been a below average defender for years, and while last year was alright, he only played 89 games at 3B. With his hip problems, I can’t see how anyone can expect him to improve.
It's true.
Arod is one of the worst fielding 3b in the league who had an amazing season defensively in 2011.
Not THE worst. But he’s bottom 10, if not bottom 5.
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Red Sox rotation grade of above average have the cavet "IF healthy."
Buchholz did have a serious back injury and who knows what he’ll be like.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 19, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
And if Lackey can pull out out his swandive. Lester’s a front of the rotation guy, and I think Beckett’s still pretty solid, but if Buchholz doesn’t come back, Lackey stays bad or Bard isn’t effective, that’s going to be an extremely shaky rotation.
Lackey's already out for the season
it’s going to be Beckett Lester Buchholz someone and Bard. I still think they’re signing Oswalt but who knows.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
So a pair of question marks and an unknown fifth starter. Although Oswalt would plug that hole effectively.
Can;t believe he hasn't signed
I hope at this point he just retires rather than playing for Boston or Texas
He should go to Texas so the can trade us Matt Harrison for Adam Lind
by Matthew Mueller on Feb 19, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
It was joke anyways. Never learned the sarcasm font.
by Matthew Mueller on Feb 19, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
fair enough, especially since he is an addict all of a sudden again:)
by Matthew Mueller on Feb 19, 2012 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think that's something to joke about
Addiction of any kind is a terrible thing.
by MjwW on Feb 19, 2012 6:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd say slightly below average
That’s what zips says…average = 96 ERA+…Romero = 117, Morrow 106, Alvarez 94, Cecil and McGowan 87
not sure how its below average
if we see a good morrow all year, and a decent cecil, mixed in with Alvarez who can clearly pitch with the best of them. plus the 5th wildcard guy
I’d say thats a pretty decent bunch of guys
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 19, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think anyone knows what this rotation will actually be. It’s very young or has big question marks. It could be below average or it could be one of the better ones in baseball depending on how things break.
by dexfarkin on Feb 19, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
High stakes only.
Sorry.
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
You tell him
We’ve got enough to challenge if things break right. Tampa doesn’t look like a 90 win team the way they’re constructed (scoring runs challenged), yet they’ve pulled it off.
You don't need to score as much if you don't allow runs
Tampa is very good at not allowing runs
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
With the rotation and the offense, it doesn't look like a 90-win team in TB?
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Their offence ain't that great.
Heard their radio guys complaining all last year that they were “run scoring challenged”. So your rotation is good, I think ours has a chance to be very good too. On the aggregate, I say we have more talent than the Rays when it comes to position players (just my opinion).
the offense is above average (albeit slightly)
but that’s just one side of the game. The 2010 Giants had an awful offense, and still made the playoffs.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
the 2011 Rays had a team wRC+ of 103 (t-7th in MLB)
the 2011 Jays had a team wRC+ of 99 (10th). The Jays’ offense should be improve from last year and the Rays probably isn’t that much better (though a full season of Jennings should help), but they were still a very good offense last year and with Moore, the starting pitching could be even better than 2011.
Not part of the collective.
I don’t subscribe to saber stuff.
Jays scored 743 runs
Rays scored 707 runs, in a much more pitching friendly environment.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
so what do you subscribe to?
The Rays looked like a pretty good offense to me last year. They may not have as many mashers as other teams, but they seem not to strike out very often, puts balls in play and when they get on base, they always seem to score.
That on top of +pitching and ++defense makes for a great team. And their offense will be better this year by adding Jennings et al.
They actually strike out a ton.
And they had surprisingly good power numbers as a team last season. Check the numbers. You’ll be surprised.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 21, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
They've replaced Kotchman with Pena
Damon with Scott
Fuld with Jennings
And as of right now, hopefully won’t be suffering through a month without Longoria nor Reid Brignac flailing away at the plate.
AND the offense was decent enough last season to win 91 games. The AL averaged 723 runs per team in 2011, although that includes interleague, but I’m not going to sort through that. The Rays scored 707. That’s just under the average that is slightly skewed due to the ridiculous offenses of NY, BOS, and TX, but it is what it is.
The Rays have made significant improvements to the offense and look more like the 2010 team than the 2011 on paper, imo, and that team scored 802, which was good for 3rd in the league.
In 2011, the Blue Jays scored 743 runs. That’s a whopping 36 more runs than the Rays. Does that seem at all significant to you? It doesn’t really seem like much to me, but they have the best defense in the league and one of the best rotations, also.
Also, while your team MIGHT (and I doubt it) have more talent on offense, as position players on the whole, I doubt they scratch the Rays unless you don’t include defense as well. There was an over 10 fWAR difference between the teams’ position players in 2011, and like you mentioned, it wasn’t a fantastic offense for the Rays last season.
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
At first glance.
Maybe 36 runs doesn’t seem significant, but I believe it is. Spread out over a dozen or more games (close ones), it could have made for some extra wins except for our pitching. We were a minus in run diffferential and that was the biggest difference or hold back. That will hopefully be rectified this year.
I believe our offence will be improved this year just for the fact that we won’t be running the Nix’s and Patterson’s of the world out to hit on a regular basis. It also follows, imho, that our defence will be better with full seasons of Rasmus and Lawrie playing defence as opposed to their predecessors.
you can't presume the 36 runs will go to close games
just as you can’t presume they will go to 18-1 blowout losses that we turn into 18-15 losses. a very good rule of thumb is 10 runs added or prevented = one win (it’s actually a little less in the 2010 and ’11 run environments, so those 36 runs might be close to 4 wins but whatever).
I think it’s a given that the team’s true talent is higher than going into 2011. but the teams we’re competing with are also better for the most part, and I don’t think we upgraded all that much (though there is definite upside)
You're right.
I was just giving a possibility of what that, combined with run differential (which was not good) could mean in possible wins. Not well presented on my part. But I believe our overall pitching has improved, which should improve the run differential ergo leading to more wins (hoping anyways).
As for the offence and defence, MjwW (right below) makes basically the points I would be making (thanks). Some addition by subtraction and full seasons (hopefully) of younger better talent.
run differential is all that matters
it’s not “that combined with run differential.” if you score more runs than you give up, you will win more games than you lose. Period.
Ordinal rankings, counting stats, whatever only matter insofar as they contribute to a team’s overall run differential. Improve that differential and your team will improve (however it’s done, whether by scoring more runs, giving up fewer or a combination of both). Don’t improve, and your team won’t get better.
Ooh
it’s not "that combined with run differential." if you score more runs than you give up, you will win more games than you lose. Period.
Way overstated. As a general rule, this s true, but teams can outperform or under perofrm their Pythag expectation sigificantly. Last year the Jays were outscored ad still won as many as they lost.
that's true, but it's not predictable
I am not aware of any method of predicting whether a team will over- or under-perform their pythag (i.e. certain attributes/characteristics that make one or the other result more likely). If there is, I am very curious to learn of it.
The only way to predictably improve one’s team is to improve run differential.
Absolutely
I just meant that “if you score more runs than you give up, you will win more games than you lose. Period.” was too definitive, and it’s easy to find counter example. The general from of that statement (the greater your run differential, the more games you expect to win) is much more precise.
Again, this was in 2011.
The Rays could easily score more runs than the Jays in 2012, and vice versa. I just gave a recap, and I still don’t think 36 runs is meaningful. 50+, sure there would be an argument, but under that I don’t know.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 20, 2012 7:12 PM EST up reply actions
So to recap
No one’s going to get injured, all the guys who brought in are going to be better than the guys they replace, no one’s going to have a down year….okay.
And the Jays of source won;t be any better. Never mind that 2B was a black hole for much of last year with Aaron Hill, Lind was pretty poor at 1B (mind you, that likely won’t improve much if they don’t platoon him, though there’s some small chance he’s completely healthy and hits like it’s 2009), we’ll have a full season of Lawrie, who even if/when he regresses considerably will still handily beat the black hole of EE, Jayson Nix and Johnny Mac from last year. Oh yeah, no Corey Patterson and Rajai Davis in CF – full year of Rasmus. So there’s a lot of upgrades right there, from an offense that was pretty good overall.
Defence…yeah, you’ve got an elite defence, but again, there’s only one for that to go and it’s not better. On the other hand, we won’t have E5 or Corey Patterson anymore, so again, addition by subtraction. I suspect we’ll close the gap (though it will still reamin significant).
Pitching…well you have basically the best in the league.
The point of all this…I’ll concede Tampa is very likely to be better in 2012 than the Jays, and perhaps much better. But watch out, because we’ve got just as good a farm system, a shrewed front office like you, and importantly, the market and cash to keep our stars and bring in FAs….to quote the old car warningOBJECTS IN THE MIRROR ARE CLOSER THAN THEY APPEAR.
I think you're putting words into my mouth (or onto my fingertips)
No need to get butthurt over anything said in this thread. I think you should sit back, relax, and meditate or something. You’re awfully worked up over this.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 20, 2012 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
It looks like he's getting all anties in his pantsies to me.
But maybe I’m wrong. I’m having a terrible day.
Sorry, MjwW.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 20, 2012 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think I put any words in your mouth
You said:
1) The Rays had basically an average offense last year, and can basically only be better (due to upgrades and less injuries – when the Rays has relatively few team games lost to health)
2) The Rays likely had more offensive talent than the Jays, such that the 36 run gap from last year would be eliminated and/or reversed, more or less due to the above (ignoring any improvements we made)
All I did was point out the rosy nature of those assumptions about the Rays, and some seeming ignorance about the difference between the Jays team last year that put up the runs they did, and the Opening Day roster this year.
The last paragraph was a little over the top..in rhetoric, not in terms of me getting worked up (I promise you, my blood pressure rose not iota). My point merely is that the Rays front office had a 4.5 year head start on AA (mid 2005 vs. late 2009), that the gap between the two teams is closing – perhaps more rapidly than you think. It’s not getting bigger as you seem to think
Well, #2 is blatantly wrong.
I’m not saying they DID have more offensive talent than the Jays. I’m saying it’s possibly and perhaps likely that they do now, heading into 2012.
I give the Blue Jays a lot of credit. For some reason, my posts on this thread have been taken and twisted into something they aren’t.
For months now, I have been advocating that the Jays are one good starter away from being competitive, in regards to the playoff race, and I thought that if they signed Yu Darvish, 1-4 in the AL East was pretty much up in the air.
I fully acknowledge that the Jays have been improving. It seems to me that you are not acknowledging how well the Rays have filled holes and put together one of the most sound teams in the league after making a splash in FA this offseason, relative to their norm. The Jays have certainly improved in a couple of areas, but I really doubt they improved as much as the Rays, and they were already however many games back last season.
Again, and I apologize again if I am wrong here, but it really seems like you’re taking this conversation a tad personally. Unless something new is brought to the table, I’m going to save my energy and be done with this thread.
Good luck this season. May you destroy all the teams in the ALE except the Rays.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 20, 2012 10:45 PM EST up reply actions
Most of the players in Tampa
And last year we were 36 runs better than you with the likes of Colby Rasmus, Aaron Hill, Travis Snider, Corey Patterson, Juan Rivera, and Jason Nix.
We are replacing a lot of those players (or in Sniders case probably either improving or going to AAA/in Colby’s case, improvement is likely) and should score at least another 20ish runs with the replacements. That’s modest. That would also put us 5th in the league run wise (If the runs were scored the exact same by the same teams)
Please consider this:
With the pitching and defense Tampa already has, if they improve 60 runs offensively, you are looking at a 97+ win team (assuming no regression pitching) that would be 2nd best in the MLB. I like Tampa, but that’s Yankee/Phillies territory. I highly doubt that Tampa is t-2 in the league overall.
I might be a homer but I legitimately think Toronto is a better run scoring team.
by Mike Andrew on Feb 20, 2012 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
Alright, let's leave it
But I need to correct one thing. IN my #2, I paraphrased you as saying:
2) The Rays likely had more offensive talent than the Jays, such that the 36 run gap from last year would be eliminated and/or reversed,
I never said you said they DID have more talent, I said said you said likely, and conditional upon that likelihood, they would then score more runs, reversing last year’s outperformance by the Jays.
Yep!!!
Jays will make the playoffs!!!
I say the same thing every year. Hope springs eternal in February. Keep the faith!
Regarding your analysis of Eric Thames, I momentarily envisioned ET flexing out in the outfield, intimidating a RHB with his massive guns. Thanks for that.
Go Jays!
by Norcase on Feb 19, 2012 1:55 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
We make the playoffs if we play only night games???
How did we have a 87OPS+ during day games and 107OPS+ at night?
by Matthew Mueller on Feb 19, 2012 6:16 PM EST reply actions
This turned into an amazing thread.
You’re welcome, BBB.
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
Lol wut
I don't always have exams, but when I do they are DURING the Jays home opener.
by jays182 on Feb 19, 2012 7:22 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This was a reply fail, not about the Blue Jays post-season chance FYI.
I don't always have exams, but when I do they are DURING the Jays home opener.
it could happen if a lot of things go right for them, especially pitching wise. Might also need Yanks/Red Sux/Rays to underachieve, get injuries etc… to make it.
Unlikely but there is a small chance.
uh oh, guys!
Hear we go again!
I dare you to challenge Al Yellon.
You have been banned from Bleed Cubbie Blue.
I see a long moderation log here for you. You've worn out your welcome in just about the entire AL East, including your own home team! Congratulations, you've started on the NL Central. Goodbye.
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 19, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
If we improve 5 wins
Isn’t that 5 losses that could come within the division?
by Mike Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Like if we win 5 more games
That’s 5 more losses for other teams right? Most of them being within the division no?
by Mike Andrew on Feb 19, 2012 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
We don't play even half of our games in the division
So you wouldn;t even expect most, much less all.
But assuming we won 5 more in the division, you would assume they would be somewhat evenly distributed, not al against 1 or 2 teams (ignoring regression to the mean in H2H records from last year)
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