Bluebird Banter Top 50 Blue Jays Prospects: 16-21
by Tom Dakers on Feb 21, 2012 2:14 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintContinuing through out list. If you want to see the previous write ups here are the links 46-50, 41-45, 36-40, 31-35, 26-30 and 21-25.
20. Marcus Knecht: Marcus was number 27 on our list last year. Our 3rd round pick from 2010, born in Toronto moved up from Auburn to Lansing this year and had a really good season, hitting .273/.377/.474 with 16 home runs and 86 RBI. That's the good news, the bad news is he had a slump in the second half of the season, hitting just .228/.346/.417 and just .200 in August. I'm not sure if there was a minor injury or something else that caused the slump but he struck out more in the second half, 31% of at bats ended in strikeouts, after 26% in the first half. He's got good power and a good eye at the plate, but he's going to have to cut back on the strikeouts to have a keep a decent batting average as he moves up the ladder. A right-handed batter, he's just 21, it would be nice to see him start the year at Dunedin and move up from there. Defense isn't his strong suit, he does run well enough and has decent arm, so he should be able to be improve to the point where he is at least an average LFer.
19. Joel Carreno: We all got a chance to see Joel last year, and he looked great in our bullpen, with a 1.15 ERA in 15.2 major league innings. I figured he earned a spot on the team this year, but Alex has added a bunch of arms to the pen, so Joel will likely start the year in the minors. But then there are always injuries, so I'm sure we'll see him at some point this year. Before the call up, Joel made 23 starts in New Hampshire, with a 3.41 ERA. He struck out 10.2/9 innings while allowing just 6.7 hits/9. He did allow too many walks, 4..5/9 but that was unusual for Joel, in his minor league career he's averaged 2.9 walks/9. He is basically a two pitch pitcher throwing a low 90's fastball and a good slider, so the bullpen is likely the place for him and, if he can keep the walks down, he could end up a closer someday. Carreno was 35th on out list last year.
18. Asher Wojcieshowski: Asher was a first round supplemental pick in 2010. We had him 13th on our list last year. He didn't have a great first full season in pro ball, but really more it was an up and down year. He made 4 starts in April with a 0.87 ERA and then was awful for May and June, with a 7.76 ERA in 11 starts, but he righted the ship again, going 7-2 over the last 3 months of the season with a 3.18 ERA. It would be nice if he struck out more batters, he only got 6.6 K/9 this year, but his fastball can hit mid-90's, he has a good slider and is (like every pitcher in the Jays system) working on a changeup. And he threw strikes, walking just 2.1/9.He turned 23 in December, so he was a little old for Dunedin, but he'll likely move a long quickly, now that he's got a year in the Jay's minor league system under his belt. He's a big RHP, 6'4", 235 and sometimes he takes bigger guys a little bit longer to figure how to keep their delivery consistent.
17. Matt Dean: Dean fell to the 13th round, where the Jays picked him, because he was committed to the University of the Texas. A $737,500 signing bonus convinced him to drop that commitment. He signed too late to get in any playing time. Matt turned 19 in December. He played short in high school but he'll be a third baseman in the pros. He's good power, should hit for a good average, but will have to work on plate discipline Just like any high school draft pick. He's a big guy, 6'3", 190.
16. Dwight Smith, Jr: Another supplemental first round pick from last year, out of school in Georgia. Dwight Smith, Sr was a journeyman outfielder in the majors. This Dwight is also a left-handed batter, thought to be similar to his dad, a little better hitter at the same age and hopefully he'll have a little better career. He'll end up a corner outfielder. The term 'power to all fields' comes up a lot. Again, getting to see him play in the minors will help us figure where to put him on the list next year.
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I’m surprised to see Knecht above Crouse as I think Crouse has a bit higher upside and is a better defender.
Also surprised to see Dean so high.
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
Knecht is a little closer to being MLB ready. In terms of pure talent, Crouse has the edge but I’d say is a bit further back.
A little closer perhaps- but they were at the same level, and put up very similar offensive numbers, so I’m not sure how much closer Knecht could really be to being ready for the Majors.
I haven’t seen either first hand, so I can’t really argue. What I’ve heard is that Knecht’s swing is more advanced, while Crouse is still trying to refine his stroke.
Absolutely
I’ve heard the same; but if Crouse is getting the same results with a swing that needs work, he can’t be far behind. I suppose that’s putting more emphasis on stats than scouting on my part.
See, that’s the danger of minor league stats. We don’t really know much about how Knecht or Crouse are being developed, so their stat line isn’t necessarily reflective of their ability. For all we know, Knecht has been given the mandate to focus on his power stroke, and has been told flat out that they don’t care about his Ks, they just want to see him learn to make solid contact on breaking balls. It’s like you’ll see pitchers have an ugly half-season in AA, and then get promoted to the MLB club and do well, because while in AA, they got told to keep throwing sliders.
It’s a little like Spring Training in the sense that not every player in every game is out looking to excel any way they can. Some have a specific goal or element to work on that can wildly distort their stats for the duration.
I don’t know if any of that applies to Knecht or Crouse, but I’d caution making those kinds of leaps just from the available stats.
Its like the Jays telling Gose last year not to worry about making contact with 2 strikes and never bunt. Always use your new swing that has power potential and we’ll round you out next year. He didn’t have a 2 strike approach last year because the Jays told him 2 strikes or no strikes always use the same approach.
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
Well, that's the official line anyway
It’s curious we didn;t hear this during the season…I’m a little skeptical
Yes because the best help you can provide your players is going out and telling other teams “Oh btw we’ve told our player never bunt and use your power stroke even with 2 strikes…”
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
Yeah, that's exactly what I said
I was referring to hearing it from prospector evaluators (KG, Law, etc), since something like this would be observable by scouts with whom they presumably talk. Or reporters who follow the team. These things aren;t exactly state secrets, they tend to leak.
Do they?
I think teams are more close-lipped than we realize. I doubt scouts pick up on every little thing that prospects are doing either.
After the fact, it’s no big deal to let this info out but at the time, it does the prospect little good to be asked about his approach.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Possibly. I just think it’s a good thing to take MiLB stats with a big grain of salt. There’s too many variables and mandates going on that you don’t know about, and that can both positively and negatively impact a player’s production.
Everytime someone comes hot from a MiLB Fangraphs write-up about a player they know nothing about beyond their statistical performance to date and tells me actually what that player is and will be, I just want to pet them on the head and send them back to the kids table.
I'm not, there's a ton to like about the guy.
he somewhat advanced for a high school bat, athletic enough to play (at least) a good 3rd base, and that bat has MASSIVE ceiling. Brett Lawrie 2.0
by Adamthebluejay on Feb 21, 2012 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
I'm surprised about how his Smith is.
Just because of small sample size.
Apparently
The Jays consider him the best pure hitter in their 2012 draft class…and he’s some good posiiton prospects there
Just wondering:
Dean fell to the 13th round, where the Jays picked him, because he was committed to the University of the Texas. A $737,500 signing bonus convinced him to drop that commitment.
How are the Jays measure up vs. other organizations at “Convincing draftees to drop their college commitment”? Did anyone look into that?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
They're probably average, don't forget about Tyler Beede
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I'd say getting Norris for 2 million
when rumours were it was going to take 4 or 5 million, more than offsets Beede.
didn't know about the letter
I just remember 4 or 5 being thrown around when they picked him.
Oh definitely not, they're certainly much better than average.
They spent the 5th highest on the draft over the past 3 years after Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston and Tampa. Tyler Beede is just one guy, although everyone mentions him cause he was a first rounder. The Jays signed a lot of guys in the later rounds who have just as high an upside as Beede, especially Daniel Norris and Kevin Comer.
by Adamthebluejay on Feb 21, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
One thing people forget when you throw around 'high spending' teams like Washington and Pittsburgh...
Is that those teams had top draft picks and had to spend huge money to sign their top players, thus raising the overall amount they spent. Whereas the Jays were spending their money on some lower 1st round draft picks, as well as players they selected much later in the drafts.
That is, if Washington didn’t have Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg to sign at the top of the draft – and had drafted around the 25th overall mark – they would certainly not be amongst the top spenders in the draft.
It's really simple
Premise: Convincing draftees to drop their college commitment = giving them $$$
Fact: The Jays in the past two years have been plenty willing to pay for prospects’ talent regardless of where they’re drafted
Conclusion: The Jays have measured up quite well at convincingdraftees to forgo college commitments
I think that title goes to the Royals over the past few years.
I reeallly wish the Jays had signed Aaron Garza, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be a 1st rounder in a couple of years when he’s drafted again.
by Adamthebluejay on Feb 21, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions
Carreno was a darkhorse for me last year. In fact, I still think he’s a bit of a darkhorse this year, only because he is overshadowed by so many other good prospects.
A little bit of a tidbit. Carreno and Alvarez pretty much shot through the system together. I have never seen two guys get promoted throughout the system hitting every level together at almost the exact promotion dates.
I hope Carreno makes it as a starter
I still have faith!
by Mike Andrew on Feb 21, 2012 11:05 PM EST up reply actions
Don't mean to wet blanket.
Carreno’s ERA rose sharply after the 5th inning of his MiL starts last year and so did his H/9. His changeup simply isn’t good enough.
by Adamthebluejay on Feb 21, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
No, it's a fair observation
One of the coaches spoke about it as well…he would get wild in the middle innings, as his pitch count got up. The Jays are essentially going to give him the opportunity to stick as a starter, but short of him developing a third pitch, and building up the stamina to work more effectively in the middle/late innings, he’s a MLB reliever all the way. And that’s not a bad outcome – classic two-pitch power reliever.
Except
He isn’t really a power reliever- 91-93 is pretty average for a reliever, and not much above average as a starter – even presuming he maintains his velocity as a starter. He’s got a great slider, which is what makes him promising.
His control looked to be better previous years, so I’m optimistic on his control going forward, but he’ll definitely need to improve his changeup to have a future as a starter. At least he’s in the right org for that.
His 91-93 as a starter can be 93-95 as a reliever if I’m not mistaken. Plus the combo of fastball-slider he has working for him projects well as a reliever.
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
by WizardofNaz on Feb 22, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
never saw him hit 95 on the gun as a reliever with the Jays. I’m not even sure if he hit 94 but he probably could.
He was 90-93 but he’s good movement on it.
by Sniderlover on Feb 22, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
That was also at the tail end of a full season of being a starter. Getting the full spike would be harder then for a young pitcher. I bet he’d show more velo if he started pitching one inning relief right out of the gate than after 25 starts.
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
by WizardofNaz on Feb 22, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
That's the thing I think
He experienced some serious fatigue in the second half didn’t he? I thought I read that somewhere, maybe it’s just a prospect overload and I’ve read that for someone else.
Maybe it was injudicious use of the term
I would expect he would get a bit of a bump in velo used only as a reliever throughout the whole season, but regardless, the point I was making is you pair even a 55 fastball with a 60 slider, and it’s an effective mix for a 7th-8th inning guy
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