Let's Play Ball Already, I'm Bored.
by Tom Dakers on Feb 22, 2012 11:15 AM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintConfession time.
Man, I'm been bored with this off-season. More than bored, sort of disappointed. It's been tough. It's hard to get excited about signing yet another relief pitcher. Yay, we signed Omar Visquel? Wow, Alex traded for Jeff Mathis. Really? Jeff Mathis? That's who we trade for?
The last couple of off-seasons have been fun. There seemed to be magic. Well, maybe trading away Doc wasn't magic, but it got us interested in the prospects and the future of the team. Soon after that Alex traded a middle reliever and a middling prospect for Brandon Morrow.
Then, last year, Alex moved the contract of Vernon Wells. If that wasn't magic, nothing else is. That was making the Statue of Liberty disappear type magic. It's the type of move that makes it look like the other GM's are going around asking 'is this your card?'. Then Alex traded for Brett Lawrie. He gave up one of my favorite players, but, come on, we got Brett Lawrie.
It seemed like Alex could do magic.
This winter? Not so much.
And I know the problem. Like Jesse pointed out, in a post last year, it is easier to go from a 1-win player to a 3-win player then it is to go from a 3-win player to a 5-win player. There aren't that many 5-win players out there, and other GM's don't want to give them away. That's why we like trades for guys like Colby Rasmus. He could be that 5-win player. He might not turn out to be, if he was a sure thing, we wouldn't have been able to trade a couple of middle relievers for him, but he could be.
It is tough. I knew, going into the off-season, that we weren't going to sign someone like Fielder to a 10-year contract, when he'd only give you value on it for the first 4 or 5 years. I did let myself get hopeful over Yu Darvish. Mostly, I was hopeful that Alex saw something in him that would make him worth $100 million plus. I can't argue that he is worth the money. Alex saw him, not me.
I just figured something would happen.
That's not to say I don't like our team, I know we are better this year. We are that much closer to where we want to be. We look to have a reasonable lineup and there's no Corey Patterson or Jayson Nix or Juan Rivera lurking. The starting rotation doesn't have a Jo-Jo Reyes or a Carlos Villanueva in it. I like what Alex has done with the bullpen. I'm sure we'll enjoy Sergio Santos more than Frankie and Rauch (though we'll miss the fun of Rauch making the 6'4" John Farrell seem like a little man). It will be an exciting season.
I'm just bored of the off-season. And I didn't expect to be. I expected Alex to keep me entertained. You let me down, Alex.
Oh well, 10 days until the first spring training game. Let's play ball.
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I'm not sure the offseason was that boring
I think it’s just the time of year when nothing’s really happened in a month. Kinda like the dog days of August, but in February. But equally, I can’t wait for the Spring Ball to get underway
Sometimes boring is good
It means AA’s plan is coming together. He didn’t need to make bold offseason moves this year. No Roy Halladay to trade, no albatross Vernon Wells contract to move. There’s no junk like Patterson, Nix et al. taking up roster spots either. He took care of the holes that needed to be filled (2B, bullpen) and he’s going to allow all the guys he’s collected the last 2 years to show what they have this year.
Even the areas a lot of people wanted upgraded (starting pitching, 1B), I can see why he didn’t make a move. The only top options (Darvish, Fielder) were prohibitively expensive and AA probably wants to see what his band of hard throwing starters (Morrow, Alvarez, Drabek, McGowan) have in them and if Lind can recapture his ’09 form.
I’m looking forward to this season because I really like the potential of this team. It feels like the ‘08 Rays. I know I’d be nervous if I was a fan of other AL East teams.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Feb 22, 2012 11:51 AM EST reply actions 7 recs
This
Hey, what about RRCJ? Romero throws hard… for a lefty.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 22, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Romero's a given
He doesn’t have much to prove. I realize I left Cecil off too, but he bores me.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Brett scares me especially when his control is off.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 22, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
I think he can be a decent back of the rotation starter but that doesn't excite me
Alvarez, Drabek, and McGowan are all sexier options. If they all meet expectations, I could see Cecil getting bumped to the pen. However, I realize that’s a longshot that Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, McGowan, and Drabek are all healthy and nobody has problems (i.e. Drabek with his control, Alvarez’ slider).
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I think Cecil can surprise. 2 years ago he looked very good imo. He’s not the sexy fireballer like the others but he can eat innings when he’s on his game. That said I think he could establish himself this year in the 1st half but be included in a trade at the deadline. This is because he can be solid but he’s also replaceable and we have Deck and Hutch who could be ready by midseason.
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
by WizardofNaz on Feb 22, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hoping Cecil has a lights out start to the season
then maybe we can get a good return if we trade him at the deadline. Cecil actually is a personal favorite of mine but with all the young talent coming up I don’t think we’ll have room for him soon
and if Lind can recapture his ’09 form.
Don’t know about anyone else but I’m getting kinda bored of seeing if Lind can recapture his ’09 form. This is year three of waiting to see if Lind can recapture his ’09… I do appreciate the classics but I’m tiring of that particular rerun.
He did show glimpses last season
And not just for a few games, I’m pretty sure it was over a month where he just hit everything. Even got injured during that stretch and came back still hitting everything for a week or two. Maybe he can’t return to 2009 Adam Lind, but there is some reason to hope he can be a productive hitter again
I think this is Lind's do or die year
He shows that he can be a useful member of this team or he gets taken out behind the woodshed and shot “Old Yeller” style.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I was just thinking about when I get MLB 12: The Show
and I thought about closing my games with Santos. It made me really excited for this season
so he's nothing like Kevin Gregg
is what you’re saying
They're both closers!!!11
I don't always have exams, but when I do they are DURING the Jays home opener.
you obviously haven't acquired Kevin Gregg's taste in pitching
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Feb 22, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs
I'm just glad spring training is underway, too.
This off season had a lot of sound and fury, but that was pretty much it considering the results which wasn’t much. I wish the Jays landed Yu, but so be it.
BTW, it was fun to argue, I mean, discuss opinions on various topics.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 22, 2012 11:55 AM EST reply actions
Jesse Litsch
Where does he fit in this year? Is there room in the bullpen for him?
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
Unless someone is injured, I think he goes to AAA since he has options
Luis Perez is out of options and the Jays could use a second lefty in the pen. Between Santos, Cordero, Oliver, Janssen, Frasor, Villanueva, and Perez, there’s no room for Litsch unless the Jays carry 8 relievers.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
This… he’s the only one with options left. And Perez has to make it imo because only one lefty in the Pen is never a good thing.
Plus if Cecil or Romero goes down you and Perez isn’t there then you are talking 2 lefty pitchers on the team total. It would make things very tough against a very LHB heavy team.
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
by WizardofNaz on Feb 22, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think so to start… no point on losing Perez for nothing if he’s pitching decently. Crawford could go to AAA for a couple months until injuries or struggles. He’d have to be lights out to make it imo.
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
by WizardofNaz on Feb 22, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
That said
You have a number of guys who handle lefties well (Janssen, etc) so maybe you don;t need a LOOGY. I tend to agree Perez has the edge due to options, and due to the utility of having a LOOGY, but I don’t think it’s a case of “need LOOGY, Perez is a LOOGY, so we keep him even if Litsch looks a lot better”
This video should help pass the time until the season starts!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Feb 22, 2012 12:17 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
WHAT
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 22, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Opposite Reaction
I wasn’t kept on the edge of my seat with the off-season moves, but I think that good, young clubs on the cusp don’t make a lot of them. You don’t necessarily need to overpay for a big FA or sign a reclaimation project who might turn back the clock five years to when they were an All-Star.
One of my favourite off-season deals for any team is the one that AA made for Santos. I think it was an inspired bit of selling as high as possible on a prospect for a guys who at worst is a quality reliever under control on a team friendly contract for five years. I’ve really enjoyed seeing how AA has gone about rebuilding the bullpen and the bench. Omar Vizqual might not turn out to be any better on the field than Nix or Teahan, but the team is going to have the experience and advice to mine from one of the truly great infielders of the last fifty years.
About the only real klanks I had with the off-season are Laffey and Mathis. Laffey less so, because I think he’s early-season desperation injury relief, who’s only really got a chance to start if the team bus gets t-boned on the 427 coming back from Pearson. Mathis, I at least understand the idea behind it, but I wish I understood why good, intelligent baseball execs are so high on a guy that the stats hate. I believe there has to be something there, but I wish they’d articulate what it is that stays invisible to his stats.
The moves not have
But I bet that week where the Jays were rumored to have won the Darvish sweepstakes sure did
Yes and no. I was excited about the possibility, certainly, but I wasn’t specifically invested in Darvish; really hadn’t seen enough of him to get a feel for how he pitches, know well the difficulties translating between the two leagues. I had come to the point that if the Jays went after him hard, I trusted that the front office thought he was worth it and was excited about that possibility. So, sure, I was excited, but the second it became apparent that the Jays really didn’t likely go hard for him, I wasn’t all that disappointed either.
Keep hearing that we "dont have a Jo-Jo"
1stly, McGowan > JoJo
but
McGowan is out of options and the Jays want to realize his value. How long a rope does Dustin get and what do we do if he isn’t good?
Reason to hope
Catcher: Arencibia 2012 > Arencibia 2011
1st Base: Lind 2012 > Lind 2011
2nd Base: Johnson > Hill
SS: Escobar 2012 = (hopefully) Escobar 2011
3rd Base: Lawrie > Encarncion/Nix
RF: Bautista 2012 = (hopefully) Bautista 2011
CF: Rasmus > Davis/Patterson
LF: Snider/Thames 2012 = Snider/Thames/Patterson 2011
DH: Encarnacion 2012 = Encarnancion (2011)/Rivera
Starters:
Romero 2012 = (hopefully) Romero 2011
Morrow 2012 = (could hope for a better 2012) Morrow 2011
Cecil 2012 > Cecil 2011
Alverez > JoJo Reyes
McGowan > Drabek/Litsch
Pen:
Santos > Frankie Francisco/Rauch
Cordero/Oliver/Frasor/Janssen = Rauch/ Rzepczynski/Frasor/Janssen
Villanueva/Litsch/Perez = Villanueva?Litsch/Perez
Bench:
Mathis < Molina
Davis > Patterson
Vizquel = McDonald
Ben Francisco = Rivera
My hope as unlikely as it is: Lind out hits Fielder and McGowan out pitches Darvish.
Good enough to dream.
The funny thing is
I bet our 2011 offseason optimism was the same. A lot of guys didn’t live up to expectations.
Guys will fail. That’s reality, but this year should be a better W/L season than last, I’ll give us that.
by Mike Andrew on Feb 22, 2012 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
1st Base: Lind 2012 > Lind 2011
RF: Bautista 2012 = (hopefully) Bautista 2011
Cordero/Oliver/Frasor/Janssen = Rauch/ Rzepczynski/Frasor/Janssen
I wouldn’t bet on these… not without favourable odds at any rate.
I would bet on the last one without favourable odds
But not so much the first 2.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 22, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Scratch that
Lind hitting any better this year at all? Yea, I think that is very likely. Hitting well for a 1B? No, I would not take that bet.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 22, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
I am not saying significantly better
But his BABIP and hitting profile do suggest that he underperformed his peripherals last year. Again, if it were a 1:1 bet, I would take Adam Lind 2012 over Adam Lind 2011 at this point in time.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 22, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
I'll take that bet
I think Lind is going to have a very good year at the plate.
Really? Why?
Janssen had the best year of his career & Rzep had a great year… so the bar is set pretty high for their replacements (2012 Janssen and Oliver), and if you were to ask me which of the bullpen is most likely to disappoint to Rauchian levels It’d be Cordero.
Except Cordero has always been a better pitcher than Rauch
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
True… but I still think he has the most potential to bomb for us. He didn’t do all that great last year pitching for the Reds and I doubt he’s moving to easier circumstances pitching for us what with the DH rule and ALE competition.
I think he can do better than 2011 Rauchian levels
and that was the original point.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Basically
Janssen ~= Janssen
Frasor ~= Frasor
Oliver > Zep
Cordero > Rauch
That is about it. I would say negative regression for Janssen would be equaled out by positive regression by Frasor.
If the bet was 1:1, I would take the current set of 4 relievers performing better than the 4 from last year.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 22, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Ah, I see it a bit differentially…
I see likely negative regression from Janssen, a standpat performance from Frasor, more or less equal performances from the lefties (last year vs. this year). Cordero’s the big question mark… I don’t have a lot of faith in Cordero.
I’m just skeptical about predictions of bullpen success. I remember this time last year we were all talking about how the bullpen was going to be better too.
I'll agree with your views
On Janssen, Frasor lefties.
But on Cordero, whatever your doubts, he’d have to be spectacularly worse to be as bad as Rauch was last year.
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