Dare I say it - Thames, Rasmus and Snider
by Mylegacy on Feb 4, 2012 7:59 PM EST
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I think our outfield situation will soon become crowded with quality pieces. The sooner we can definitively begin to narrow the pieces in the equation in order to best decide who to keep and who to trade the more likely we are to make the correct decisions.
To that end I propose we begin 2012 by finding out what Thames and Snider bring to the table.
Down the road I strongly suspect our outfield will be: Gose in CF (with his Gold Glove, otherworldly arm and range, new found power and at least adequate OBP). Marisnick in RF (with his Gold Glove, plus arm and range, great all round batting and + 900 OPS). At that time, in LF will be one of: Rasmus, Thames, Snider, Crouse, Knecht, Sierra, Hawkins, Becerra, Gonzalez or Anderson.
It seems to me that for the long term, Jose (Hark the Herald Angels Sing) Bautista will be at 1st base when the dust has settled - so lets put him there in 2012. Lets put Lind and EE as a platoon at DH (this also gives us the advantage in the 7th, 8th or 9th innings of having a fresh dangerous bat who can enter the game when the opposing team removes their starter).
In the outfield we'll start Thames in LF, Rasmus in CF and Snider in RF - and we'll leave the three of them there ALL YEAR to find out just who can cut the mustard and who's not even chopped liver.
I think the energy and enthusiasm of the Fickle Five; Lawrie, Rasmus, Arencibia,Thames and Snider will give the team a new found boost, and give the team the best opportunity to win, all the while getting to really see what Thames and Snider bring to the table without forcing a premature decision having to be made on their futures - or lack thereof.
What think you all?
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Interesting
I don’t think it’ll happen this year because I doubt Bautista will want to move out of RF, and I don’t think the Jays are going to put EE and Lind in a strict platoon situation at this point.
I would favour a 4 way platoon of Snider/Thames/Lind/EE at 1B/DH/LF. Lind never plays against lefties. It’s not ideal, since there’s 3 lefties and 1 righty, and I think the Jays want Snider and Thames playing everyday vs. 5 times a week, but it might be a happy medium.
by MjwW on Feb 4, 2012 8:14 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
well he can't hit well enough to DH (full-time anyway)
and if Snider doesn’t figure out how to hit again then Thames will be the de facto LF (assuming he can sustain solid power/line drive ability with mediocre contact rates). Thames was pretty atrocious in the field in 2011, but it’s possible it was a bit of a statistical anomaly. I’m not willing to bet on it, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if he’s only a -5 runs or so fielder
We don;t really know that he can't DH.
Now, I would bet against it, but I think it’s way too early to preclude it. If he’s a -5 fielder in LF (positional adjustment -7.5), than DH is only 5 more runs (-17.5 positional). 5 runs over 600 PA is only about 10 points of wOBA.
Thames would need to take another step forward with the bat to DH material. Given his high K% and low BB%, and similarly poor ratios in the minors, I doubt he’ll hit enough. But there’s a reasonable possibility he could.
I've heard that the -17.5 adjustments for DHs isn't quite right
It’s actually -22.5, but you get a 5 run boost since it’s harder to hit as a DH, apparently. So a 1B has to be -10 runs or worse defensively to benefit from moving to DH. For a LF, I guess that would be -15 runs.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Tango has it: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/only_the_nose_knows/
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Right
DH get a +5 bonus on the hitting side because it’s hard to hit as a DH.
The net positional adjustment is -17.5, which is to what I was referring (and what is conventional referred to. This is also what Fangraphs uses per 150 (I think we’ve had this discussion).
I guess your implication would be, then you have to factor in that Thames wouldn’t be as good a hitter as a Dh vs. in the field. And there’s merit in that. My response would be, some guys seem to do just as fine hitting as DHs, but in aggregate it’s a -5. So some will be the same, more will be -5, some will be -10. Some might even be positive (they hit better when they don’t have to field – cough, E5, cough).
Anyway, my point stands I think – it’s too early to write-off Thames as having enough of a bat to be an average DH if his defense doesn’t improve/be adequate. This is a guy who essentially was an average hitter in half a season of ABs as a 24 year old rookie who hasn’t had as much playing time as most guys his age. And it’s not like he just took advantage of unfamiliarity, he had an awful slump for 3 weeks or so in July/August, and then seemed to make adjustments.
Two of our 3 OF will have gold gloves?
Bold prediction IMO, Gose maybe has the tools but not sure about Mar
by all accounts he's at least an average CFer, and by many accounts he's plus
meaning he’d likely be an excellent corner OF. not sure that would translate into a Gold Glove, but who cares, he’d almost definitely be a very good defensive player
I just don't see the kid contending for a gold glove
Having 3 plus defenders in the OF is possible but 2/3 gold glove’s in the OF just does’t happen (at least not very often).
Neither have a reputation as having that kind of potential, but you could probably stretch it with Gose.
All just IMO
Neither have a reputation as having that kind of potential
If we’re talking about the reputation to have the potential to win multiple Gold Gloves, that’s exactly what Gose has, and there’s no stretching it. The only reason he’s a prospects is because of that defesnive abaility combined with a medicore bat (at this point; very poor contract combined with decent power)
He’s a prospect because hes a 5 tool player. He can do a little bit of everything. I stated above:
Two of our 3 OF will have gold gloves?
Bold prediction IMO, Gose maybe
So I never said Gose couldn’t or wouldn’t, but if I was guesstimating I wouldn’t say we have 2 guys slated to win gold gloves in the same year in the OF.
I typically overvalue prospects and hated the idea of trading for MLB talent this year with prospects, and even then I still don’t think that is a realistic goal. How often do two OF win a gold glove each in the same season on the same team?
I’m not trashing our prospects but we had a few starters in the minors who “Have front of the rotation potential” but likely won’t reach that. Prospects are great because you can pencil them in for great things in their career but overlook injuries, work ethic and a hundred other things that can go wrong.
My main argument here is that we will likely not have two gold glovers on the same team in the future, at least its not likely.
I agree it’s unlikely both will contend annually for Gold Gloves, and it’s unlikely they’ll ever both win one in the same year. But I think Gose certainly will be a GG candidate every year, and it sticks as a regular will win at least a few. Marisnick’s not on the same level, but he’ll be a guy who had a couple years where he’s close and might win one.
Perhaps it was justing wording, but I took what you said as to mean that neither of those two had a reputation for defense such that they were good enough to be Gold Glove worthy. That’s certainly not the case for Gose, and it’s too soon to preclude it for Marisnick.
Bautista moving is not gonna happen
AA says he plays gold glove defense out there. But I agree with you about finding out about Snider and Thames. Just not that way. I’d be more inclined to moving Bautista back to 3rd, to be honest. He’s probably average there, and it just makes him that much more valuable as a player than at 1B.
Also, Rasmus and energy/enthusiasm don’t sound too good together.
what
you think AA is going to come out and say “Bautista has poor range but a good arm and we don’t exactly have a glut of good outfielders right now”?
Does AA really have to make the comment on several occasions that he plays GG defense?
What I’m saying is he’s not gonna move him to 1B? Do you actually think he is in the near future? As for Lawrie, I sometimes wonder whether he could stick at 2B. We don’t have many up and coming 2B. Lawrie at 2B, Bautista at 3B and we have a number of up and coming OF that will probably be above average offensively and defensively.
Bautista can play 3rd pretty well. He’s not terrible and has a good arm. A move to 1B at some point could happen, but I don’t think it’s the time yet.
Just my opinion. I’m sure the Jays explored all this, and they know best.
we don't have anyone (good) playing 1B
what’s the problem with moving Bautista there? If he can play 1B with average defense, his value at 1B is pretty much equal to his value at RF (where he’s a below average fielder)
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
and yes, I agree that the Jays would have looked into this
and I’m confident that a move to 1B isn’t too far in the future for Bautista
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I don't see the point in moving Lawrie to 2B
He’s shown some promise at 3B, why mess that up? I seriously doubt the Jays move Bautista to first base or DH until one of the younger guys (Gose, Marisnick) force them to
I actually wonder if Lawrie could be moved back too
I don’t really think there’s much chance the Jays do it, but it’s entirely possible that everyone (including the Jays) was either wrong about Lawrie’s defense at second or didn’t foresee him improving so much this year.
but again, I think it’s a moot point. I don’t think the Jays are going to move Lawrie back, but I do think the Jays are going to move Bautista in 2013 or maybe sooner (when we acquire Heyward?)
Wasn't Jose's production at 3B
Worse than it was when he played RF? I honestly have no idea if there’s a correlation there or if its just coincidence, but its worth noting when you’re talking about where he’d be most valuable
I highly doubt it's more than coincidence
I disagree with the “move him to 3B” premise but his defense at third in a very small sample in 2011 was excellent
his offence while there in 2011
was excellent as well, wasn’t it?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
That might be the most ridiculous thing I've seen this year
it’s early in the year, yet, but, as you say, “wow.”
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
his defense in RF is slightly better than it is at 3B
but he would be more valuable (WAR-wise) at 3B, because of positional adjustments
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Right
But I was getting at his numbers at the plate when he was over at 3rd and wondering if the “drop off” would have made the defensive increase in value moot
But like Benk said it was more than likely a coincidence. Now that I think about it that was around the time he started to cool off in general
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