Question Time.
by Tom Dakers on Feb 5, 2012 10:24 AM EST
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PrintHere's the question of the day: If you could return one former Jay to his prime and put him on the Jays' roster, which one would you choose?
I'd pick Dave Stieb. It would be close between him and Roy Halladay but Stieb finished 19 of 38 starts in 1982, throwing 288.1 innings. Can you imagine? 288 innings? Having a guy starting every 4th day, giving your bullpen the day off? And, with Stieb's competitiveness getting the best of him, so often, watching him blowing up at his teammates would give us lots to talk about in the GameThreads.
Anyway, let us know which former Jay you would pick to join today's club.
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Clemens never was a Bluejay, I don’t care what the facts say.
by craig in calgary on Feb 5, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
His Jays years weren’t his prime. it was a chemically augmented period. His prime would have been the pitche rhe was in the late 80s, and Stieb was better.
And your point is? We know that Clemans used drugs to better his results in Toronto. So calling it his prime isn’t reflective of true talent.
I said I'll take Clemens
you said Stieb’s prime was better than Clemens’ 80s numbers. That is false. I also never compared Henderson with Clemens, other than when I said that I’d also take him (Henderson) and Thomas if given the choice.
Whatever.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Actually, you responded to my comment to benk, which was regarding Clemens not being the only chemically augmented player, and my comment that a player who you know is using chemicals to bolster his abilities can’t really be considered in his prime. To which you pointed out Clemens numbers in the 80s, which are very good, but significantly lower than other former Jays, such as Henderson.
Plus, people really say ‘whatever’ as a rebuttal these days? I thought that went out at the same time as WB sitcoms. Well, when in Rome…
Whatever.
Significantly?
What numbers are you looking at? From 86 to 92, Clemens put up 59.9 fWAR. In his best 7 year stretch, Henderson put up 52.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Ballball Reference
For both players, I took a ten year period starting with their first big year, which has Henderson from 1980-1989 and Clemens from 1986-1995. It’s their closest, longest, most similar ranges as top players.
Henderson puts up a total WAR of 72.1 (averaging 7.2 WAR per year) and Clemens put up 63.1 or an average of 6.3 per year. By 1996, we know Clemens started using steroids, so his numbers past that point I’m not interested in (although if you want to throw in his Jays years, he’s still 6 points behind Henderson up to that point)
for the same period FanGraphs says 72.3 for Henderson and 72.2 for Clemens
which tells us, gasp, that the two were comparable players!
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
seriously, any way you split it the two are incredibly, comparably good players
I don’t know why we can’t just accept that
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
It’s not really the question here, but I know personally why I don’t accredit Clemens the respect as a player that his numbers should earn, and it’s solely because we have solid proof that he cheated and the time period we specifically have the most proof about coincides with his sudden miraculous turnaround from a guy seemingly flaming out early after an incredible run to the guy who defied age and injury to post one of the greatest back to back seasons of all time.
1996 is the line that separates Roger the very good but short lived pitcher and Roger the surefire HoF candidate and one of the best pitchers in the history of the game. And, yes, no doubt many many other people who we offer those kinds of laurels to have cheated just as bad as Clemens, but we don’t have clear proof about most of them and we do about him. So what is his career – the astonishing possibly best ever, or the good that needed drugs to make great?
That’s why I have a personal issue with lauding Clemens. Probably more keenly felt by my generation because we watched all of the stages of Clemens from start to finish.
if Clemens had retired after his last season with the Sox
he would have had 86.3 fWAR in 13 seasons. that’s surefire HoFer
BR has him with 74.8, which puts him into Bert Blyleven territory. He had 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP, which would have helped, but especially at the time, I can see the less than 200 wins, poor post season performances and attitude keeping him waiting for years.
Blyleven should have been in a lot earlier. If his career had ended 10 years later, and been eligible 10 years later, there’s no way he waits as long as he did.
Also, even though Clemens aggregate total would have been close to Blyleven, Clemens had a higher peak (Cy Young seasons, etc) that was one of the things Blyleven was seen as lacking and kept him waiting. If Clemens had retired after 1996, I think he’d have been in the HoF either in 2001 or 2002 – especially since his numbers would look even better due to the offensive explosion at the time
On further reflection
I think he would have only been eligible for induction in 2002, so make that 2022 or 2003 rather than 2001 or 2002. In any event, his first eligibility year or second
Why
hasn’t anyone outright called him an asshole yet? Do we need to go over the bylaws here again?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
even if I could remember, wouldn't care much about it
if he’s producing 8 wins a season why do I care if he’s an asshole?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Because he's the only player you can call an asshole on this site
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Feb 7, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Is there a hierarchy between Ballball Reference versus Fangraphs, or do we just rock paper scissor it?
For position players, I prefer Fangraphs numbers for offense because they use wOBA whereas last I knew, B-R is OPS based. For defense, FG uses UZR and B-R T(otal)ZR, which for me are 6 of one half dozen of the other.
The more prominent difference is pitching…Fangrpahs uses FIP, B-R runs allowed with an adjustment for defense. For large samples (careers) they’ll largely converge, but otherw ise I usually just split the difference – that’s what Tango does, and if it’s good enough for him, it’s good enough for me.
Based on today`s roster
It has to be Stieb or Delgado. Both would add a bunch of wins over the player replaced.
Doh. And I see Clemens as I write this.
What If ...
George Bell banging out 40 HR/120 RBI a year for the next 5 years in LF would be great. He must be one of the greatest Rule 5 picks in MLB history.
Depends what you mean
If we’re talking prime, regardless of whether he was a Jay during that time period?
Roger Clemens.
Prime during time with Jays?
Roberto Alomar.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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Yeah, but he only played 2 seasons with the Jays. If we had Clemens throughout the prime time of his career (Boston and Toronto years)…
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
I understand your point
but Clemens’ two Jays seasons were the two best back-to-back seasons he ever had, and his best and fifth-best seasons overall
He's
Someone no one likes…..I’m putting it this way instead of saying what everyone really wants to say about him
by Keith72 on Feb 5, 2012 2:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
To be honest,
given their personalities, I think the difference between Clemens and plenty of other Jays would be a wash
Normally I don’t fall too much into team chemistry but Clemens really is both about as bad as you can get and should be in prison
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Feb 5, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see it
there’s no real evidence that Clemens’ baggage will actually cost a team wins.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
To be fair
There isn’t really any way to quantify that
by Aidin on Feb 5, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So we shouldn't take Clemens because he has a ton of baggage
but we also have no idea how to quantify how many games that baggage will cost a team.
Don’t get it.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
no way of quantifying it
doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist. (to play devil’s advocate)
by benk on Feb 5, 2012 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Really?
How about the fact that he might not be able to play, due to legal proceedings?
I’d think that needs to be taken into context; thus, Clemens will almost certainly be missing at least some time. If so, you need to discredit his value based on that.
Furthermore, the quote below suggests that, not only would Clemens almost certainly alienate a large portion of his fanbase (particularly in a city like Toronto), he might make it difficult to tap into some overseas markets as well.
“None of the dry cleaners were open, they were all at the game, Japan and Korea”
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Feb 5, 2012 6:38 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Alomar`s prime over KJ
is it as much as Delgado over Lind or Stieb over McGowan/Cecil?
The only way it's not Roger
is if we’re putting emphasis on longevity (ie we only get him for 2 years whereas we’d get other choices for longer). At their best in a Jays uniform, it’s a no brainer.
John Olerud!!!
In 93 season he went 363/.473/.599. I would love to slot that next to Bautista
by Matthew Mueller on Feb 5, 2012 11:26 AM EST reply actions
How about...
Bell, Barfield, and Moseby? They come as a package!
by Cybertooth Tiger on Feb 5, 2012 11:31 AM EST via mobile reply actions
have to say Clemens, he was just too good with the Jays
but Alomar would slot in very nicely given the team’s needs. Jesse Barfield would also be a great addition, assuming TZ is right about his defense (moving Bautista to first base, eliminating that need)
I think would be very happy
If the 2012 Jays had Stieb or Halladay or Clemens (less so than either of the two.)
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 5, 2012 12:00 PM EST reply actions
I disagree with Fernandez
just because we already have an excellent shortstop. he’d be a nice fit at second thoguh
put him at third
and move Lawrie back to his natural position
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Feb 5, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
But then there's no room for Alomar!
Though I guess you could then move Lawrie to his natural natural position of catcher, though he would be blocked by Delgado at his natural position.
ERNIE WHITT!!1
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
I’m going to say Halladay. A healthy Halladay added to our current rotation and we’re looking at 10-15 more wins this year and playoff contention. I’m giving him the nod over Stieb because of Roy’s playoff no-hitter. Hypothetically if we are in the playoffs, id rather have Halladay pitching game one of a playoff series then Stieb. I won’t even consider Clemens because that guy disgusts me and is a terrible human being despite his freak talents.
by Sean Coleman on Feb 5, 2012 1:27 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I'll give you that
Clemens did have some freaky talents. To get better, to gain velocity and arm strenth in your mid-30’s could only be attributed to some sort of super-human strength. Wait what?
by craig in calgary on Feb 5, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
How about Stieb's 5 near no-hitters?
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Feb 5, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
He would be my choice.
2 of those near no-hitters broken up with 2 outs in the 9th (consecutive) that I remember.
He's had 3 broken up with 2 out
the back to back games in Cleveland and in Toronto against B-more.
1989 almost Perfect Game broken up by Roberto Kelly
Another potential PG was broken up by an infield hit by BJ Surhoff in the 4th. No Drama.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 6, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
Those were the 2 that I remembered off the top of my head.
with that bad hop single in Cleveland being so heart breaking.
I could do with a 1996 Pat Hentgen
20 wins on a 74 win team, we could pencil him in for 26-28 W’s with this offense. I’d take 1993-1997
good pitcher
but his peak was way shorter than Halladay’s and Stieb’s, even if you don’t want Clemens
Delgado
You then platoon Lind/EE at DH or 1B, and that becomes an offense that is every bit as powerful as the Yankees.
Edwin Jackson!
With Miguel Olivo a close second.
Mike Napoli!
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 5, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
Rickey Henderson
I would take 10 WAR from a centerfielder any day. Not to mention the exciting play.
Rickey Henderson was primarily a LF
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
fun fact:
Bautista now holds the Jays career record for wOBA, wRC+, BB%, SLG, and ISO. Also tied for 2nd in OBP.
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Think he can put up 21.1 fWAR for the remainder of his career?
would put him tops among Jays hitters
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
call his true talent in 2012 5 fWAR (conservative, but not crazily so)
.5 fWAR decline/year, 5 in 2012, 4.5 in 2013, 4 in 2014, 3.5 in 2015, 3 in 2016 = 19… so he’s got a shot, especially if he gets resigned afterwards. it’ll be tough to put up 21.1 just over the next five years, but it’s possible
if he's, say, 5.5 true talent next year or higher then he should have it
with a normal aging curve/no catastrophic injury
Wow that's really tough...
…kind of like having an all-you-can-eat pass at a ribfest. I have no idea where to start.
Can I pick an entire roster? (That will be a separate Fanpost)
I can’t bring myself to say Clemens – I just can’t stand the guy – but he did put up the best rWAR season every by a Jay. However, I think the place for the biggest improvement would be at 1B, so I’m saying John Olerud, 1993, OPS+ of 193, rWAR of 8.2.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Feb 5, 2012 3:03 PM EST reply actions
Delgado.... play him first... big up-grade over Lind!
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Feb 5, 2012 3:36 PM EST reply actions
Robbie
For his escapades both on and off the field.
Clemens' 2 years with the Jays
If we are talking about bring Clemens back today, he would be subject to testing. He probably could never repeat those 2 years with the Jays. I say Dave Steib. In his day he was the best. Too bad Cy Young voters paid so much attention to wins in his day.
My picks have already been said..
But based on the team we currently have, I’d say..
Clemens & Delgado.
I am the one who knocks.
Ernie Witt?
Add Alomar for sure, Clemens, Hentgen and Stieb, Bell are all great picks though
Why I'm a optimistic Bills fan:
The road that is built in hope is more pleasant to the traveler than the road built in despair, even though they both lead to the same destination.
- Marion Zimmer Bradley
Not the best ever but
1986 Mark Eichhorn for the bullpen anyone?
by Gruber17 on Feb 5, 2012 8:37 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Doc Halladay
Its pretty sad when many of us would choose Halladay as his prime is right now ( still )! AA is a salary dump specialist, regardless of what his drones and shills might say and he unloaded a great player in his prime for $$$$.
Halladay said he was not resigning and respectfully asked for a trade to a contender. Are you suggesting the Jays should have held on to him, had an unhappy Roy Halladay for 2010 and then lost him for nothing? We got one of the top ranked minor league catchers and a pitcher who could potentially be decent in return for him which is better then nothing. Its not AA’s fault that JP couldn’t build a team that could contend and Roy didn’t want to stay. Not really sure how you can call it a salary dump when the player doesn’t want to play for us anymore.
by Sean Coleman on Feb 5, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
we also got a player
who we eventually flipped for a toolshed outfielder who looks like he has a decent chance of turning into a good player
I'm not saying that you have to love AA...
but he gets an unfair rap from a lot of haters and bitter fans. Fans complain that we have been rebuilding for 19 years. In reality, AA has only been in charge for a couple of years and we’re really just entering year 3 of a 5 year plan. Its been a frustrating 19 years, but you can’t hand the poor management of Gord Ash and JP Ricardi on AA. In 3 short years, our minor league system is stronger then it has been in decades and the foundation is in place via scouting and coaching depth in the minors that we can build a contender. He also doesn’t set the “payroll perimeters” but merely must stay within them as set by his boss so its not as if our payroll is at 80 million simply because AA has decided so. Furthermore, if you look at the state of the team at the end of JP’s reign when our minor leagues were devoid of talent and the team payroll bloated at 100 million with poor results, and compare it to the team now, it certainly has improved. Gord Ash failed and JP failed and it certainly hurt attendance and the fans faith in the ball club however AA has made radical changes to the ball club in the short time he’s been in control and its just not fair to say “we’ve been rebuilding for 19 years” or hold our performances from ‘96-’08 against AA and his attempt to build the team and organization into a long term contender.
by Sean Coleman on Feb 5, 2012 11:30 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
We could be the...
Cubs. They haven’t won in like 3.25 of my lifetimes. Teddy Roosevelt was president of the US and Canada’s PM was Sir Wilfrid Lauier. Heck, we hadn’t even started WWI yet and Boardwalk Empire would be 12 years away from happening. That means Mount Rushmore is younger than the Cubs last World Series championship…
19 years ago I still a teenager and can remember Joe hitting the big home run!
McGriff
Just to be different, I want my former favourite Jay back!
But honestly my first thought here was Alomar but after giving it some thought I’d go with Halladay…Jays really need an upgrade in the rotation and a true #1
Clemens
For this upcoming season I think the offense is going to be good. That leads me to consider a pitcher. I had a hard time deciding between Doc and Clemens but I ultimately went with Clemens.
I always liked Clemens. I guess I’m the rare baseball fan that doesn’t engage in self righteous moral hand wringing. I could care less if he had an affair with an underage country singer or if he mainlines litres of anabolic steroids between innings so long as he goes out every fifth day and intimidates, demoralizes and embarrasses the opposing lineup like he did in his prime.
All my favourite things start with the letter "B". Bong Hits, Beers, BBQ, Blue Jays and Boobs!
Brad Fullmer
It’s important the clubhouse understands the direction of the organization
obviously robby alomar
wouldn’t want anybody more then him
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