Prospect Poll: Who will be this year's Call-up Demand?
by T_Mizz on Feb 5, 2012 2:42 PM EST
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PrintIt seems to me that for every year there's always a player who struggles and the switchboards light up with JaysTalk Callers demanding that the struggling player be benched and some top prospect be called up.
Two years ago, when Lyle Overbay struggled the cries for Brett Wallace went up almost immediately. Last year, when we couldn't seem to find anyone to play 3rd and Aaron Hill was struggling, they were calling for Brett Lawrie and Adeiny Hechavarria. I even recall one call to Bob McCown when I was a child and someone was complaining about how poor the outfield was and how they should bring "this Vernon Wells kid up from Syracuse". So my question is, who will it be this year?
*This is not about us, this is about the Jays Nation as a whole, which as sad as it is we make up a small portion of.
The Candidates:
Triple A Hitters (Given the PCL they'll all have inflated numbers and look "ready")
Anthony Gose- With Colby Rasmus' poor finish to last year, he's on a short leash with these mainstream fans, not to mention the LF semi-vacancy.
Travis D'Arnaud- Arencibia is good but he does have his faults, and once fans hear of TDA's good defense and good batting average they'll surely want to see JPA relegated.
Adeiny Hechavarria- He was called for pretty heavily last year (even on here) but given the current middle infield, this year he looks like a long shot.
David Cooper- He had an excellent season last year in AAA, but it didn't translate too well to the majors. With Adam Lind coming off another poor season, I imagine it won't be long before people are calling for a change.
Mike McDade- Again, it's likely that Lind will have his struggles at times, if they occur early on people will want a change. If he outplays Cooper, McDade could be in the spotlight with mainstream fans.
Double A Pitchers
Joel Carreno- Not sure if he'll actually start the season in Double A but if he starts in Triple A it's unlikely he'll be mentioned for call-ups at all. If he's in Double A he'll get enough strikeouts for people to pine for him to bolster a struggling middle relief.
Drew Hutchison- If he continues to put up the stats he did last year people will assume he's the ace we've been looking for since Doc left and will want him up regardless of struggles in the Major League rotation.
Deck McGuire- First round pick with an advanced repertoire that has advanced quickly up to Double A. If he starts out well and one of the back two of the rotation struggles he may be the first one being called for.
Chad Jenkins- Pretty much ready to go, he won't be on any innings limit as he could go over 200 IP by the 120% rule AA seems to like. Again, a first round pick which the mainstream fans may be tempted to attach some extra value to.
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Hutchison
The front office has started talking about him, there will inevitably either be injuries in the rotation or struggles in the back end, and the question will be when Hutchison will be up.
If the front office is talking about him
I’m betting it’s to see if they can raise his trade value enough to be willing to let him go for another ‘core’ piece. That’s what happened to (Nestor) Molina (for Santos) and Stewart (for E. Jackson who became Rasmus).
but I think d'Arnaud has the best chance to be the first one up
when Arencibia is dealt
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I doubt Arencibia is traded in-season
He’s not a veteran with an expiring contract type who are usually traded at the deadline. You most likely get more value trading him in the offseason
yeah probably
but – admittedly a sell low scenario, but still – we got Escobar and Rasmus around the deadline
Right
But we were selling veterans to bu young players. I guess it’s possible we do that with JPA, but I don’t see it – it would likely mea we were contending and upgrading, in which case I doubt you want a rookie catcher being thrown into that…or worse, Jeff Mathis
What if we're not competing and Arencibia's off to a hot start?
I’d be selling on him
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I don't think teams are going to pay more because of a hot start
And just because you’d like to sell, doesn’t mean anyone’s going to pay fair value (or what we would consider fair value), which is the exact point I was making in the first place
What About?
Moving JPA to 1st? I’d for us to trade him. He’s a class act, but I understand that it’s a business. I agree with MjwW here. I don’t see him being highly sought after, either at the deadline, or off season. I think he either moves to 1st, or we DH him. I know he’s not putting up the numbers for either position, however I think less time behind the plate for him could be good.
doesn't hit well enough to play first
almost definitely has more value in trade than as a mediocre 1B
I'll hold out hope
That he because Mini-Bautista this year then. I know, too much mercury in my sushi. By still, I like the kid…
To be clear
I think he will have a fair amount of value – but you’ll have trouble realizing it in an in-season trade. In the offseason you’ll have more potential trading partners. As Pikachu said, he has way more value as even a poor defensive catcher than anywhere else.
but Arencibia well liked by the fanbase
Bringing up d’Arnaud would mean he’d have to go, or they’d split time. Don’t think fans would want that
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
probably Hutch
I think both Rasmus and JPA will be pretty good in 2012, so the fanbase won’t be clamoring too much for TdA nor Gose
While I think these points on JPA and Rasmus are valid
I think the idea of JPA/TDA DHing or playing 1B will be floated out there so they can both play. Same with the idea of Rasmus moving to left for Gose if the LF situation remains unresloved. Just like last year how the Jays should’ve “moved Lawrie back to his natural position of second base and called him up” last year.
by T_Mizz on Feb 5, 2012 3:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions
one of Lind/EE/Thames/Snider/Manny? needs to be traded for that to happen
and in any case, I think JPA and TdA both have much more value in trade than as DH
You're thinking too much like a Bluebird Banterer again
When these Callup demands are made, you never think of things like trade value for the future. It’d be a question of whether at that moment they would be an upgrade over a struggling Lind(probable)/Snider or Thames(possible)/EE(50:50) and I think it would appear close.
by T_Mizz on Feb 5, 2012 3:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
oh, so you think people will want TdA to come up and DH?
or do you think that the Jays will actually do it? not sure I interpreted your comment right
I think the public will want him to
I don’t think he will though because of the reasons you outlined
by T_Mizz on Feb 5, 2012 8:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I really hope Gose is not near the big league club
Any time before September (barring injury). We already made the mistake of not giving Snider a full season and now he’s almost out of options. I really wanna see a full season of Rasmus
I think Hutchison will be the most demanded given the lack of faith in Cecil. I also wouldn’t be surprised if people were calling for d’Arnaud to be called up if he’s tearing it up in AAA and a move to DH Arencibia or something (not endorsing the idea at all, I just wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what people called for given his power)
I see it being more likely that it will be a pitcher just because likely we will have at least 1 struggling SP
And we can’t bank (well I can but I’m a tad biased) on JP being terrible enough to warrent a call up for Travis.
I think Hutch is my choice.
Who's most liekly to be called up?
Hutchinson. Who do I think the mainstream fans are going to whine for? I’d say Gose in Las Vegas. Even if he puts up the same strikeout numbers fans will look at the speed and increased power of being in the PCL and think he’s going to be a 30HR 50 steal guy with great defence. He probably wn’t get the call though unless there’s some injuries with how full our outfield is.
And besides, baseball is unpredictable, that's why it's fun! - Yukko Aioi
Drabek
Gets back on track this year and has the first shot at a rotation opening.
by bjewitt16 on Feb 5, 2012 11:10 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
This I like. I think you are right.
Way to many people are down on him. It’s like he’s a ghost or something. So he struggled in his rookie campaign. Even Halladay had a stinker early in his career. He walked 42 batters in 62 innings. Lets remember he was the key piece to the trade of the franchises best (ever?) player.
Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"
by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Feb 6, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
As you keep saying whenever this is brought up
but is he really an exception? I mean, yes, he is an exception in the sense of the transformation he made, but I don’t think that is relevant in terms of Drabek. In terms of young pitchers having FIP / xFIP of ~5.00 or higher in their first 100IP and still becoming mid to front of the rotation starters, I don’t think Halladay is an exception. Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, CJ Wilson, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks are a couple examples from the top 50 starters last year in fWAR who fit those parameters (I’m sure someone could do a better analysis than cherry picking a few examples).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 6, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree with this
Halladay is very much an exception. Looking at your criteria of FIP/xFIP of ~5.00 doesn’t tell the whole story at all, because Halladay’s second season when he had a FIP of 5.36 was in 1999, one of the great seasons for offense in baseball history. And of course, FIP is scaled to ERA. This is reflected in that despite the gaudy FIP, he was still worth 0.9 fWAR in 150 innings, suggesting he was well above replacement though below average. It’s very much orth noting he had a normal BABIP and reasonable HR rate, meaning the ball wasn’t getting pounded. And he was only 22, which is quite young for a starter.
Then in 2000, he utterly collapsed, in that his K/BB remained the same and he got crushed in balls in play – ton of HR, high BABIP (some of that may have been bad luck).
So if you’re looking for comparables, I’d suggest just looking for guys who poor FIPs/xFIPS in their first 100 IP and then became good top of the rotation starters is inadequate. You’re looking for guys who pitched reasonably in their first season/100IPs for their age, subsequently collapsed, got sent down and then came back to dominate. We obviously don’t know what is yet to come, but Brian Matusz very much fits the profile, though he was better than Halladay before collapsing.
Didn't Halladay come within and out of a no hitter in his second start?
But with respect to Drabek, this is a prospect poll. Meaning Triple A hitters and Double A pitchers. Drabek will probably go back to Vegas and through little fault of his own won’t look good. He’s still on the 40 man and may well be the first one called up but he’s not going to be this year’s Brett Wallace, he’ll be more like this year’s Travis Snider: a guy who’s been given short auditions and struggled, but still has high upside, etc.
by T_Mizz on Feb 6, 2012 12:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm going to go out on a limb and say it'll be Drabek too
He’ll start the season really hot in Las Vegas and put up some unbelievable K numbers, go deep into games and dominate (which is almost unheard of for pitchers in the PCL) and fans will be clamouring to have him back in Toronto. Fickle or not, this is what Jays’ office is hoping for too, so they wouldn’t be long in obliging.
I'd guess Hutchison when it comes to fans demands for a call up.
Because management has been talking about him and some fans may have seen him pitch last spring. My thoughts are that we won’t see Gose or d’Arnaud before sept. at the earliest (partly business with the arb clock). I even question seeing Hutch before then as he’s not on the 40 man roster. Sure it might be nice to see these guys, but there are a few others ahead of them when it comes to call ups.
hmm
I think D’Arnaud is going to put up great numbers but most of jays nation isin love with the longball so there wont be a rush/demand.
Gose is interesting he can put up some crazy numbers in vegas as well, and with left-field looking like a question mark, lots of fans can start to believe he will bring what jennings brought to TB last year.
Mcdade will put up great numbers if hes healthy. He has power, willing to take a walk, good defensive 1B, and a switch hitter. Im excited to see him probably more than most fans.
With pitching i dont think there will be a demand only because there isnt a dana eveland or jojo reyes in the rotation. But someone maybe put up the numbers that forces a spot open (Hutch).
With that said i think the combo of numbers, position need and the TB factor Gose will be the prospect most demanded for a call up by jays fans
Yep, JPA in AA at the same age hit a jack every 19 PA and D’Arnaud hit one every 22 PA at the same age at the same level (in a much larger sample size).
I don’t think AA or his staff really love the long ball that much. They probably at least count BA and OBP.
I don't even think most fans "dig the longball" that much...
Sure its great but I’d take a pennat over leading the league in HR.
If D’Arnaud sustains his HR rate and hits .300 I’d take him over the extra 3-6 HR JPA provides at .220.
Last year we had holes in our lineup
3B, 2B and LF were being filled by replacement level players or worse, so when Lawrie started off hot and fans could see the gap in the lineup which he would fill, they understandably clamoured for his call-up. This year, there shouldn’t be as many holes: maybe LF, but one of the 4 in the running should step up (My guess is it will be Thames and his low ceilinged steadiness, even though most of us wish it would be Snider realising his full potential); maybe 1B, but if Lind has a Hill-like season, EE (or Cooper?) should be able to step in. If none of those 3 cut it, or if 1 is traded, fans may start begging for Mike McDade who is going to tear up the PCL if they put him in Las Vegas.
Our starting pitchers might all go on a tear, but I somehow doubt it, so my guess is that it will be a pitching prospect who gets the most fan attention this year. Drabek, Hutch (if he’s not traded), Carreno, McGuire (if he takes the next step in his development quickly) or Jenkins (I highly doubt the latter). Beyond Drabek, the high end guys are a couple years away (Syndergaard, Nicolino, Norris, Wojzciekowski)
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