Make Your Predictions: Travis Snider
by Tom Dakers on Feb 6, 2012 10:50 AM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintEach year I think, 'this is the year the Jays are going to give Travis Snider 500 at bats so we can see what he can do without the sword of Damocles hanging over his hear' and every season they don't do it. Now I figure it is this year or never.
The guy is just 24 years old, it seems like he should be older because we've been talking about him forever, so there is still lots of time for him to have the career we were hoping he'd have, but if it is going to be with the Jays, it is going to have to start happening this year.
What I'd like is for him to win the starter's job out of spring training and for the Jays to tell him 'relax, the job is your's, we aren't going to worry about your numbers until we get 300 at bats in. Just go out and have fun'. That's what I'd like. In reality , it hasn't happened yet and I don't expect it to happen now. I really hoped that Farrell would be the one to have patience with him.
I've always thought that teams should be patient. Fans? We are impatient by nature, but teams should be able to take the long view. I mean, what was gained by giving Corey Patterson 317 at bats to show that he was he was, well, Corey Patterson. Corey didn't get on base any better than Travis (even with the lousy season Travis was having), he didn't slug any better and he played the outfield like someone that didn't want to be there.
| Year | Age | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 20 | 24 | 80 | 73 | 9 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | .301 | .338 | .466 | .803 | 113 |
| 2009 | 21 | 77 | 276 | 241 | 34 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 78 | .241 | .328 | .419 | .748 | 96 |
| 2010 | 22 | 82 | 319 | 298 | 36 | 76 | 20 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 79 | .255 | .304 | .463 | .767 | 105 |
| 2011 | 23 | 49 | 202 | 187 | 23 | 42 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 56 | .225 | .269 | .348 | .616 | 65 |
| 4 Seasons | 232 | 877 | 799 | 102 | 198 | 54 | 1 | 28 | 104 | 16 | 7 | 66 | 236 | .248 | .307 | .423 | .730 | 94 | |
What is Travis going to do? Bill James has him hitting .271/.329/.452 in 239 plate appearances with 8 home runs and 33 RBI, with 9 steals. I'd like to think that if he does hit that well, he'll see more playing time than that.
I have no idea what he'll do, I'd like him to get 500 at bats, but I doubt that will happen. Let's guess 325 at bats, batting .260/.335/.460 with 12 homers and 40 RBI.
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I'm going to be pretty optimistic
475 PAs, .285/.345/.510, 18 homers, 72 RBI, 16 steals/5 CS
7 BB%, 23 K%, +5 runs defensively (in corner OF)
heey what do you know we are similar although I am like 5 hits worse than you…
Kadri Fanboy since 2006
not really
You’re listing plate appearances, he’s listing at bats.
by Chris Buckley on Feb 6, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Snider
seems like a change of scenery guy at this point. Hasn’t really received a shot in Toronto, was probably called up too early, has dealt with injury so it’s hard to get a good feel for where he is at right now. I was big believer in Snider as his final year in Triple-A was very, very similar to what Braun put up at the same stage in the same league, Snider happened to do it at a younger age too which I found to be impressive. I know comps aren’t 100% but to me it was worth noting. My belief is he would be better off starting the year in the minors to rebuild confidence, and trade value.
Your projection in the post is pretty much what I’d expect, maybe 350 ab’s and 14 home runs.
I'm not sure
what that is supposed to prove. Are you saying that to contradict what I said? The fact that he was good enough for 1 win above two seasons ago doesn’t really say much to me.
by Chris Buckley on Feb 6, 2012 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
he did receive a shot in 2010, as he deserved
he had a fairly serious wrist injury, though, IIRC (which is why he played half a season)
I don't see how starting in the minors
Is going to help his confidence. “We’re gonna go give the starting job to Thames, go work on your swing some more in Vegas” wouldn’t be a huge confidence boost. Raking in Vegas probably loses its appeal after you do it for parts of three seasons
by Aidin on Feb 6, 2012 12:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Just to be contrary
but he hardly raked in AAA when he was down there last year.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 6, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
I suppose
but even that is considerably worse than what McCoy and Cooper did, and not that much better than what Wise and Loewen did in terms of OBP.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 6, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
You're right
But that really wasn’t my point. Dominating AAA pitching is hardly going to do anything for his confidence when he’s already proven himself at that level
Snider
Tom mentioned ‘I like to see him win a job out of spring training’. Well, let’s see that happen, okay?
What I’m not in favour of is giving a guy 500 at bats, just ‘because’.
He has talent, but a lot of young, highly drafted players have talent.
Does he have perseverance, can he learn, can he adjust to the fact that pitchers have him figured out?
I hope so – the raw talent IS there..
by Paul Chicago on Feb 6, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
the at bats he's going to get is tough to predict, AA has stated several times
that Thames has the advantage for the LF job over Snider coming into spring training
Buy Low, Sell High ...
At this point, I have to believe Snider’s market value is very low, otherwise I’d trade him. If I were AA, I’d be looking at a make-over. Last year, they sent him down to work on hustle, speed and grinding it out at the plate and in the field. Me, I’d keep him in AAA all year to continue the makeover incl action in CF and only bring him up in Sept.
80 AB, 16 BB, 7 SB, .280 BA
5 Steals in First 6 Games ...
… after Aug demotion, a far higher rate than ever before. Don’t think that was coincidence. Also, never played CF in professional ball until last year’s demotions. Looks like they are changing his games, and for good reason.
They sent him down cause he couldn't hit a beach ball with a boat paddle.
Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"
by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Feb 6, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
I'm new to this site. What does the green thumbs up mean? Post was liked?
Lots of dudes in the south wear Jays hats. I yell "Go Jays". They respond. "Canada has baseball?"
by jay_fan_inda_swamp on Feb 6, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
He was the leader in stolen bases when he was sent down wasn't he?
Or directly behind Rajai Davis
by T_Mizz on Feb 6, 2012 12:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Probably right ...
5 SB in Apr before 1st demotion and 9 on the season in TOR and another 12 in LV. Total in 2011 of 21; previous high in a season was 6.
Snider
Hey Everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster here!
I think Travis Snider will end up being a cautionary tale about how an organization should not handle a top hitting prospect. It seems to this somewhat more than casual fan that he has changed his plate approach so many times that the results for this upcoming season are going to be kind of difficult to predict.
I don’t think he makes the team out of spring training. I see him being called up around the all-star break for part time duty where he fails to make much of an impact and ultimately gets traded for another still youngish, fading, high ceiling prospect.
190 AB, 30BB, 16 SB, 8CS, .257 BA, 11HR
All my favourite things start with the letter "B". Bong Hits, Beers, BBQ, Blue Jays and Boobs!
It’s impossible to predict with any certainty what Snider will do. But your idea that he will be called up at the All-Star break, not make an impact, and be subsequently traded may well be true. If that happens, though, I don’t think this will lead to much of a “cautionary tale.” Sure, we all have theories about what went wrong — personally, I suspect that Dwayne Murphy is a terrible hitting coach and should be replaced. However, it is a fact that many prospects, even some highly-touted ones, don’t make it. And it’s not a function of how the teams treat them — it just happens. (Tom: you’re an ex-Expos fan. Remember Peter Bergeron? Not a Snider-like hitter, but a disappointing failure nonetheless.)
I would agree that the Jays can’t be wholly blamed for Sniders struggles but the constant demotions haven’t shown to be of any benefit to him whatsoever. I think he has proven that he can kill AAA pitching.
I’m not a hundred percent positive but from what I gather from reading articles here and elsewhere on the interwebs; the PCL is a hitters league. I find it highly unlikely that he is facing a steady diet of MLB quality off-speed/breaking stuff like he does in the majors. Given that, I think if he is to develop it is going to have to happen on a MLB roster.
I like Murph. He is the hitting coach to the best hitter on the planet.
Haha, I’m an old Expos fan too. I remember Peter Bergeron vaguely.
I just got to thinking, who is the last impact bat the Jays farm system produced? It has been awhile hasn’t it?
Go Jays!
well not if you include
Lawrie, Hill, Lind or Arencibia (and there are fair reasons not to include any of them, just adding)
Eric Thames?
I like him as a player. I think his sideburns are badass. I think he has the potential to be a really nice piece on a championship quality team but I don’t view him as an impact bat. At least not at this point of his career.
Go Jays!
Lawrie, Arencibia, and Thames have not played enough at the MLB level to call them impact hitters at this point- and the latter two probably won’t reach the point of being called impact bats, though it’s too early to preclude that. Also, I’d highly debate that Lawrie was a product of our farm system, given that he was acquired for Major League talent and only spent 3 months playing in our system.
Lind and Hill have both had an impact season or two, but neither are what would be considered impact bats in my books – Hill was more of a solid regular (which I’m not knocking, just saying it’s not an impact bat).
sure, all fair points
but then Lawrie did make his quantum leap while in the Jays system, so I’d say it deserves at least a little credit (though certainly not all of it)
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by Minor Leaguer on Feb 6, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
The problem last year
Was that he changed his hitting style once too many times. He was sent down to Vegas because his swing was a mess. He got it somewhat figured out and then returned. The problem was that he somehow lost the new style and reverted back.
It may indeed be a fact that Murphy is a terrible batting coach (I don’t agree) but it could be that Murphy is a bad coach for Snider in particular. It also could be that Snider is a bad student, or even that stuff happens and Snider will have a fixed swing starting in 2012.
Hoping for the best
.275/.350/.525 – 31HR, 90RBI, 55BB
I'm gonna cop out
Take Bill James’ prediction and multiply all numbers by 2.2 and voila! Snider’s season is right there.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Feb 6, 2012 1:54 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Oops!
I meant aggregate stats lol
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Feb 6, 2012 3:36 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I can’t see it. Why would AA trade him when his value is at the absolute lowest? Unless someone’s willing to overpay for his potential, you’re better off to play him and roll the dice that he can turn his hitting around, as opposed to collecting some C level prospect bullpen arm toiling in low A ball in a trade.
I've said this before
But it’s false to assume his value is at its absolute lowest.
His value reflects perceptions about his ability to produce in the future. It is lower than in the past, because the perceptions about his abaility to produce are lower. However, we do ot know exactly how he will perform in the future – that is we don’t know the true state of nature. So, if the true state of nature were actually that he’s a bust and never significantly produces anything at the MLB level, then it’s far to say that the perception of his value is higher than his actual value, and holding on to him will only lower value since you would reveal more information suggesting he’s a bust.
Of course, we don’t know what the true state of nature is – and of course, there may not actually be a true state of nature in that production is a function of talent, opportunity, luck, people around the players (coaches, teammates, etc). But conceptually, the approach works, and I think it’s wrong to assume the value is at an absolute low (vs. the lowest point it has been since he hit the Majors, which it is).
sure
but as we’ve discussed before, if a player could have (say) value from 1 (Yuniesky Betancourt) to 10 (Evan Longoria), Snider right now is probably somewhere around 2-4. ie, he can’t go much lower – another season or two of struggles(real struggles, not 2010 “struggles”) and he’s probably out of the game. one good season (2010 or better) and he’s suddenly valuable. therefore, it’s probably foolish to trade him now if AA can’t really sell another GM on Snider’s potential… not because it’s necessarily “selling low” (similar situation to trading Drabek)
I agree it probably doesn't make sense to trade him
And I wouldn’t, unless you basically got a similar player back who was a change-of-scenery candidate. My point is merely that it is often assumed his value will never be lower, and it’s certainly possible (if not probable)
Okay, but the market history shows that most times, people only overpay for potential when there’s been minimal exposure at the MLB level. So you’re more likely to get his value closer to his performance than his potential, which still means a fairly low return.
Well, I dunno about the first part, I’m not sure there’s really evidence to confirm that, though intuitively it’s straightforward.
The second part – it depends what fiarly low return means. Against, the potential is a general perception – if that perception is incorrect, then you get more value now by trading him while that incorrect perception exists and is inflating his value. If you wait, that perception will continue to erode (as it has the past couple years), and his value will be lower in future. If the perception is correct, then you wait, and wait for that potential to come to the surface. So it all comes down to evaluation.
Well, I dunno about the first part, I’m not sure there’s really evidence to confirm that, though intuitively it’s straightforward.
I’m sure there is, if you really wanted to try and pull together the data. But that would be an insane amount of material to go through.
As for the second, let’s look at it this way. What’s the likely return for Snider in this market right now with parts of four seasons under his belt and not steller numbers over that time. Would he have the same value as Lawrie or Nestor Molina? Is he likely to be the cornerstone of a trade? I think the answer to both is a pretty clear no. So since his likely return is currently around, what, a fringy B-prospect?
The difference in value between that and even worse prospects or out right release if he continues to be awful is significantly less than his potential value if he can work out the issues and even begin to approach his potential. I think riskwise, the Jays will lose much less holding on to him if he doesn’t work out than they stand to gain if he does.
Right
I’m making a theoretical argument. You’re making a practical argument. I agree with you in the practical implications (the Jays should keep Snider, subject to the caveat above above getting a similar player in return, essentially a challenge trade). The theoretical aspect is, is you had perfect information about the future, you could know whether or not it is worth watching. the point of scouting and scouts is to try and understand what will happen in the future. If you had an evaluation of him as essentially a nothing contributor. and you were really sure about it, you should trade him. In practical terms, you can’t be sure enough anyway to justify trying to salvage value anyway and give up the potential upside. But, his value definitely can go lower, that’s my point. It is not necessarily at an absolute low. That’s the theoretical part. Whether you ca act on that or not is purely a practical consideration, which is where you’re coming from
What we’re talking about here is risk management. It’s very much like poker. Is the hand I have and the winning percentage involved worth the risk against the money I need to put in to back it?
I would argue though that absolute low for value doesn’t include ‘no value’ when we talk about trades, because you assume he has at least some reason to be involved in the trade deal in the first place.
Using your metaphor
You’re not just weighing the winning percentage of your hand and the money needed, you’re also evaluating the progression of the hand the likelihood that your opponent has a bette rhand based on how s/he’s played the hand, and the normal style of play – this is Bayesian updating. Similar to player evaluation in baseball.
For example, you may have a thoretical 50% of winning a hand, but if you figure the true state of nature is that your opponent has a 95% of beating you, you fold. You cut your losses. Similarly, if you figure Snider is a bust (true state of nature), you may want to cut your losses and get some value back, eve if there is some (small) chance you’re misjudging the potential (or your opponent’s likelihood of winning the hand).
Binary prediction
Snider is likely to be one of those players who will either mash or fizzle. This makes predicting middling numbers hard.
I’ll go optimistic and say mash for a .275 av, .340 obp with 27 HRs. He’ll get 500 ABs too.
Snider
.270/.330/.470
22 HR / 15 SB
Wins the job out of spring training, and doesn’t look back.
.313/.400/.565
Sniderman
.265/.322/.460
17 HR
65 RBI
13 SB – 5 CS
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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I agree...
He wins the job OUTRIGHT in spring training, and does’t look back. The Jays NEED a productive Snider in left field. Give Thames the D.H./platoon outfielder job.
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