Blue Jays Aggregate Prospect Rankings

by gabrielsyme on Feb 9, 2012 12:54 AM EST

This is a small attempt to use the so-called "wisdom of crowds" to give us a better understanding of our own prospects. The idea of the wisdom of crowds is that the aggregate judgment of many different observers is superior to the individual judgements. I've used the rankings of Fangraphs, Baseball America, John Sickels, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com and Batters' Box.

I gave the top prospect 25 points, 24 for the second all the way down to one point for the 25th prospect. I've included the totals to give an idea of the separation between the prospects. Because Marc Hulet only ranked 15, I've included his list for the top 13 prospects, but used just the other 5 rankings for the next 5; as a result, the separation between Hechavarria and Carlos Perez is much less than the numbers indicate.

Observationally, we have a consensus #1; two very close centre-fielders contending for the 2nd spot; and four closely packed pitching prospects behind them.

1. Travis d'Arnaud (149)

2. Jacob Marisnick (137)

3. Anthony Gose (135)

4. Daniel Norris (129)

5. Noah Syndergaard (126)

6. Justin Nicolino (123)

7. Andrew Hutchison (120)

8. Deck McGuire (107)

9. Aaron Sanchez (98)

10. A. J. Jimenez (83)

11. Adonys Cardona (75)

12. Asher Wojciechowski (72)

13. Adeiny Hechavarria (71)

14. Carlos Perez (57)

15. Joseph Musgrove (43)

T16. Kevin Comer (42)

T16. Christopher Hawkins (42)

T16. Jacob Anderson (42)

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Comments

I did one of these last year, except I called it a "mega list"

It is an interesting idea and very cool to put numbers to what we all have been reading over the offseason.

by T_Mizz on Feb 9, 2012 7:59 AM EST via mobile reply actions

We did a community prospects list

wonder how this compares

+1 is only good if you actually rec the post

by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 9, 2012 11:30 AM EST reply actions

Here is the list

1. Travis d’Arnaud – 90.6%

2. Anthony Gose – 65.9%

3. Drew Hutchison – 56.7%

4. Jake Marisnick – 97%

5. Noah Syndergaard – 74.4%

6. Nestor Molina – 75.8%

7. Deck McGuire – 65.7%

8. Justin Nicolino – 55.0%

9. Adeiny Hechavarria – 75%

10. Daniel Norris – 87.9%

11. AJ Jimenez – 55.3%

12. Aaron Sanchez – 79.3%

13. Carlos Perez – 60.7%

14. Adonys Cardona – 65.8%

15. Joel Carreno – 51.3%

by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 9, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

Nestor Molina isn’t here anymore…

by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 9, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

HE'S NOT?????

I tweet.

by benk on Feb 9, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

we're much lower on Norris

though I’ve come around, I’ve read too many great reviews of him (best LHP in the draft) that I’d be comfortable putting him in the 5-7 range

I tweet.

by benk on Feb 9, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

Partly because we did it so early

I would still leave him behind the Syndergaard/Nicolino/McGuire/Hutchison cluster (first two being B+ type in my books, the second two B/B+, I’d stick Norris at B) until we see some pro data and scouting reports.

by MjwW on Feb 9, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

fair enough

I think I’d have him around McGuire though, maybe a smidgen behind, but pretty much equal

I tweet.

by benk on Feb 9, 2012 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

For me the thing is, McGuire is so much closer. There’s just so much less risk there. Norris has a higher ceiling for sure, but McGuire profiles as a 3/4 type, which is nothing to sneeze at. It really comes down to what you emphasize. BY nature, I’m very conservative when it comes to risk-aversion – I will want a comparatively higher return to accept higher risk.

by MjwW on Feb 9, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

Community rankings

Batter’s Box (which I used), also came out almost immediately following the season, and had a similar pattern of lower rankings of 2011 draftees. I think that for our community rankings, and for Batter’s Box, this is an effect of having less information on recent draftees than the professional evaluators. The Goldsteins and Sickels can get enough information to be confident in placing such guys higher.

There’s also been a process of deliberation (and perhaps new information) in the prospecting world over this offseason which I think has seen Aaron Sanchez and Jacob Marisnick move up people’s boards.

by gabrielsyme on Feb 9, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions

honestly Im excited about him but I dont want to rank him too high until he actually throws for us

by STZ513 on Feb 10, 2012 8:23 PM EST up reply actions

Also

We should keep that list going…if people are interested. I know Pikachu and you were alternating, and I dont want to step on any toes, but I can put them the threads up if you guys tired of it

by MjwW on Feb 9, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions

Sure go ahead if you like. I don’t mind anyway.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 9, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

I'd appreciate it

I’m far too lazy to do it again

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Feb 10, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe we could have a pre-ST aggregate list? Invite everyone to put together their top 20 or so, then aggregate the results. It might provide an interesting contrast to the earlier results obtained by another methodology.

by gabrielsyme on Feb 10, 2012 5:50 PM EST up reply actions