Keith Law's Top 10 Blue Jay Prospects
by Tom Dakers on Feb 9, 2012 4:46 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays News
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PrintKeith Law has posted his top 10 prospects for each major league team (insider membership needed. Please, please don't put up links to people reposting copyright material), here is his Jay top 10:
1. Travis d'Arnaud, C (6)
2. Drew Hutchison, RHP (42)
3. Jake Marisnick, CF (47)
4. Anthony Gose, CF (59)
5. Aaron Sanchez, RHP (96)
6. Justin Nicolino, RHP
7. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
8. A.J. Jimenez, C
9. Adonis Cardona, RHP
10. Deck McGuire, RHP
I think the great thing about the Jays minor league system is that 100 people could pick top 10's and we'd all come up with a different group. I like Keith's though I'd have it a little different.
The numbers in the brackets are the placement on Keith's MLB top 100 prospects. Hutchison's has moved up the list in a hurry.
Another nice thing about the Jays system is that the players from 11-20 would almost be as good as the top 10. And yes we'll have our prospect list up soon.
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I don’t like Hutch or Nicolino that high, myself, and Gose and Marisnick should be flipped imo, but I guess that could be a matter of preference.
Dan Norris jumps on this list next year, I would guess.
Here's my attempt at a witty sig. Didn't really go so well, methinks.
Wise men wonder, while strong men die.
I like Law's rankings
He’s a tough evaluator, so getting five in his top 100 is doing very well. He had good things to say about Hutchison, Cardona, and Sanchez in the chat too.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
whether it's tough or easy
he’s still picking 100
by pssguy on Feb 9, 2012 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
He’s such a tough evaluator that sometimes he only puts 50 players in his top 100!
by EthanDR on Feb 10, 2012 2:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
ok, fair point guys, it was poorly worded
I was impressed that we had more players than the average and that Law had really good things to say about the ones on his list like d’Arnaud, Sanchez, Hutchison and Gose (well, he said Gose had more power than Ben Revere, but Revere’s not a bad prospect either).
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I like the fiarly aggressive ranking of Jimenez
A good defensive catcher with a god hit tool has definite value. Power is lacking at this point, but he could grow into some. I’m pretty excited by him.
Reading through his chat
(Link, not insider), I found this comment on Wong helps explain why the Jays passed over him with their #21 pick last year (Cards nabbed him at 22)
Andy (Ind)
Did Kolten Wong finish anywhere close?
Klaw (1:39 PM)
No, lacks the upside for this list. Best case scenario is a 50, solid-average big leaguer.
What does 50 mean?
Donny, please.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 9, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
Off topic
Even if you don’t like hockey or the leafs you should check out this train in there pre-game thread. Just look for the green at the top.
Nobody does it better then PPP. Simply amazing.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
their ** !!!
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 9, 2012 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
Need a crafty person to make recs go blue for BBB as well…..
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
William of Nassau am I, of Dutch blood. Loyal to the fatherland I will remain until I die.
Crafty person to the rescue!
http://userstyles.org/styles/60688/bluebird-banter-recs-go-blue?r=1328883553
Does basically the same thing as the PPP extension but has a jays logo instead of the leaf.
You’ll need to install stylish to enable it:
For firefox: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/stylish/
For chrome: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/fjnbnpbmkenffdnngjfgmeleoegfcffe
Instructions for how to on Safari: http://www.nystic.com/blog/?p=303
If you use minimalist for everything for chrome it will also install there: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/bmihblnpomgpjkfddepdpdafhhepdbek
Before and after shots are on the userstyles page.
by jmsmorris on Feb 10, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Wow those guys are good at the Internets
I never knew Leaf fans could be funny and I mean not in the point and laugh at them way.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Feb 9, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Puns on the player's names
Check out the Philadelphia Flyers’ roster.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Feb 10, 2012 9:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you are a sad sad little man
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Feb 10, 2012 5:17 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure what to make of the Aaron Sanchez top 100 rank
I’m glad, don’t get me wrong, but you’d think from this ranking he puts more emphasis on ceiling and not so much on stats. But then he has Hutchison all the way up there.But then again he has Norris, who I’d say was this draft’s Sanchez, off the list.
So my guess is he just sees something in Sanchez he doesn’t see in the lower guys and that other guys don’t see in Sanchez.
by T_Mizz on Feb 9, 2012 6:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
He said it was the better secondaries
Or at least what he sees as better secondaries. In his chat this afternoon, he indicated inconsistency was the concern with Norris.
In general, he does seem to value players with ceilings as above average regulars, so Hutchison does seem a little high.
Oh yeah it makes sense
His secondaries are probably better than Syndergaard’s but with the difference in command and Syndergaard’s fastball, I’d take him over Sanchez.
by T_Mizz on Feb 9, 2012 7:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Right
But command and control can often be matters of feel and experience. At the lower levels it’s more of a yellow flag than a red flag. If he’s still hacing problems in 2-3 years in AA, then we should worry
Oh for sure
My comment was more on how good Syndergaard’s command has been than how bad Sanchez’s has been.
by T_Mizz on Feb 9, 2012 8:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He put Hutchison higher because he's added velocity
Law mentioned he hit 94 mph at some points. Add that to a plus changeup (I think) and that indicates his stats aren’t simply dominating weak hitters at the lower levels. That’s stuff that will play in the big leagues. He also likes the deception he gets even if it’s a red flag for potential injuries.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
More randomness
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxcCC2g1Ke0&feature=channel_video_title
How???
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
KLaw makes me happy:
Alan (Las Vegas)
Would you expect to see D’Arnaud take the catchers job in Toronto this year?
Klaw
That’s up to the front office. He’s going to knock over small buildings in Las Vegas, so the callup decision isn’t going to be about offensive performance. He’s better than JPA long-term, maybe better by the start of 2013.
Courtesy of Drunk Jays Fan
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
William of Nassau am I, of Dutch blood. Loyal to the fatherland I will remain until I die.
More KLaw through DJF (emphasis mine)
What we may not know is that “Marisnick is also a very hard worker who has impressed the Jays’ staff with his ability to make adjustments. Don’t be surprised to see him get to Double-A this year.”
Hutchison has a deceptive delivery, he tells us, but one that doesn’t bode well for long-term health, as he throws a bit across his body, “but he gets to his glove side fine and benefits from the way it limits right-handers’ looks at the ball.”
Never heard of the injury risk for Hutch before.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
William of Nassau am I, of Dutch blood. Loyal to the fatherland I will remain until I die.
I have, and I can see what they’re talking about from clips of Hutchison pitching. Like Law said, in order to create deception in his delivery, Hutch throws across his body somewhat. However, unless an injury to his pitching arm pops up, I wouldn’t tinker with it too much.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
And really, even if it does, you still might not
Hutchison does not have phenomenal raw stuff – the deception is important to his success. So if you remove the deception, it’s possible he’s not a viable major leaguer. So it might be a case of, live with the injuries if/when they occur.
Seems most said same thing about Lincecum's delivery 5 years ago too.
4 straight years of 32+ starts. But he is the Freak after all.
One of the reasons KLaw gave for his aggressive ranking of Hutch
is that his stuff has been taking pretty big leaps forward as he fills out.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Feb 10, 2012 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
I think he mentioned Hutchison was touching 94 mph in some starts now
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
That may be so
But touching 94 means sitting probably 90-92, which is only average for a RHP. It’s the movement on his two-seamer which makes it play up, though his 4 seamer is apparently very flat. And from what I’ve read, there’s not a lot of projection left…what you see is basically what you get at this point.
The other thing is, I doubt Klaw has ever seen him…he’s in Arizona, Hutchison came out of Florida and has played in the MIdwest League, Florida State League and the Eastern League. So anyway, I like the aggressive ranking, I just take it with a grain of salt, because people who have seen him have him lower.
Law sees more than you may realize
I think he estimated that he has seen about 70 of the top 100, so it’s possible he’s seen Hutchison. You have to remember, Hutch was drafted out of high school and was a really skinny kid who pitched in the 80s. He’s added velocity every year as he has filled out. He’s the perfect example of a guy drafted for projectability. He’s still not that old, he may have a little more velocity to add. I think that’s what Law sees in him to go along with good control and plus secondary pitches.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Right
I know Law sees a lot. But of those 70, he said that would include high school showcases, etc – ie, not necessarily as a pro. I follow what Law has to say, and from I’ve heard/read, he gets most of his looks in the AFL, spring training in Arizona, the Texas League, the Arizona League, Rising Star game, high school showcase curcuit. Of those, the only one where he would have been Hutchison would have possibly been in high school, and I highly doubt it, since Hutchison was not a heralded prospect and actually thought his future was as a SS, the Jays wanted him as pitcher. So, I doubt Law has seen him in particular, given where he was been pitcher and where Law is located. If he has gone out East to do scouting, I imagine he’d have talked about.
I understand Hutchison had a lot of projectability back wehn he was drafted. That was 2.5 years ago, and he was filled out quite a bit from what I’ve read. The point I was making is that from what I’ve read, there is not a lot of projectability left. Like I said, I’m not saying Law is incorrect, far from it. Hutchison offers a nice mix of pitchability, decent stuff and relatively good floor. Going back to my original point however, he doesn’t have overpowering raw stuff – fastball touching 94 and sitting 90-92 is pretty average, the movement makes it play up, so maybe a 55 overall on the 20-80 (50 speed, 60 movement).
I think you're absolutely right
He’s beyond the age where you really expect much projection.
Nicolino, from what I’ve read, has the same velocity (touching 94, sitting at 91-92) but with the difference being that he’s younger and is like 6’3 175 or something, he’s got room to fill out so he’s still got some projection.
But on Hutchison’s fastball, I think he’ll be fine. With average velocity, plus command, above average movement, deceptive delivery, and good secondaries, he’ll be able to throw it comfortably at the big league level.
by T_Mizz on Feb 10, 2012 8:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Would make sense for Marisnick to make it to Double A
Really, I’m somewhat surprised they didn’t promote him to Dunedin by July/August, but I guess they want to take it slow with him (after rushing a guy like Snider with less than positive longer term results) and they wanted to keep the Crouse-Marisnick-Knecht OF together.
big difference between rushing a 20 year old to high-A
than a 20 year old to the Majors, but I see your point
Cold Shower
It’s nice that the Jays have such a good minor-league system, and that KLaw thinks so highly of a number of the prospects. But most of the players in his top 100 are far from the majors. And the fact is that a large percentage of these players will never even amount to anything. This is all talked about here. In particular, the author says “Have we just focused too heavily on upside when it comes to prospects, to the point where we’re now valuing lottery tickets over relatively sure things?” I think this is a very valid question — people might want to take lists like KLaw’s with a grain of salt.
Sure
Of course a lot of these guys are going to fail to become good major leaguers…but that’s why there’s more safety in numbers. On average, each team should have 3 top 100 guys. We have 6. All else equal, that meansa much better chance of producing major league talent
Logically, what you say makes sense. But I think it’s also simplistic and over-optimistic. Question: would you rather have 6 top-100 prospects, none of whom have played AA, or would you rather have 1 top-100 prospect in AAA? The latter situation might well be better, i.e. there is a greater probability of producing a single major-league player.
It also emphasizes the value of players who have shown the ability to play at the major leagues. It may well be preferential to trade off a number of those low-level, high-upside prospects for real major leaguers, something that AA has generally not done. I know that you think the future is very bright for the Jays given the number of good prospects. I seriously wonder if this is, in reality, pie-in-the-sky.
Well, thats's the "all else equal part"
I’d definitely take the 6 in AA or lower over the one in AAA, purely on numbers. The latter situation would be far less likely to produce more major league value.
As for trading for major leaguers, I’m all for it, as long as you get fair surplus value. Getting Santos for Molina, all for it. Is there some buying into an optimistic scenario, sure. BUt this is the way Tampa built their system, it’s the way the Rangers. It’s the way the Jays did in the 80s, heck it’s even the way the Yankees did in the early to mid 90s. It’s critical to build a homegorwn core – there are no guarantees, but AA has given the Jays a great shot.
by MjwW on Feb 10, 2012 8:17 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I would rather have 6 top-100 prospects.
That to me is a no-brainer. I think what’s lost in your argument as well, is that not only do we have those 5 guys in the top-100 – at least 2 of which will more than likely be playing in AAA this year – but we have a great deal of surplus talent that could be included for consideration on that list. Most other major league organizations don’t have that.
For example, a guy that I was surprised wasn’t included on that top-10 list, Daniel Norris, has been on many people’s top-5 list. Another great example is Carlos Perez, whom many have ranked above Jimenez. These are just a couple of examples but it really goes to show you the depth that the Jays have in their organization.
Knowing all of this, it should be understood that the Jays organization has a far greater chance of producing more talent, much like their AL East brethren in Tampa Bay, than say the Chicago White Sox who have Addison Reed and Nestor Molina and are pretty bereft after that..ick Castellanos
John Sickels ranks the Jays as having 8 B+ prospects. As you have suggested, compare that to a team with a great player in AAA, like the Detroit Tigers who have Jacob Turner. The Tigers have a couple of other good players in their minor league system – like Nick Castellanos and Drew Smyly – but thin out quite a bit after that. Really think about it, which system would you rather have? Another great example that reflects your suggestion would be the aforementioned White Sox. They have a very good pitcher at AAA in Addison Reed, whom many would consider a sure thing. Are you willing to trade that potential sure thing that is closer to the majors for 6 of Toronto’s B+ prospects who haven’t made it to AAA yet?
A very deep system
Not only do the Jays have a high number of players on the list but they also have one of the best collections of talent ‘waiting in the wings’. It could be an exciting list for the Jays again next year if none of these players lose their rookie status.
HBG (NYC)
Which team’s system has the best crop of guys outside of the top 100?
Klaw
(1:08 PM)
Padres. Could also argue Tampa or Toronto.
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