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Alternate Reality Draft: The CBA Effect

I have attempted here to redraft the first 10 rounds of the 2010 and 2011 drafts, applying the same restrictions and guidelines that have been set by the new CBA.

That is, I took the aggregate slot recommendations for the Blue Jays first 10 picks in 2010 and 2011 and using that as my bonus pools, tried to redraft as many of the same players that made those drafts so well regarded, until I reached the bonus pool limits.

Now each player on the draft lists for 2010 and 2011 already had a bonus figure attached to their names obviously, since most were drafted and subsequently signed. The caveat to this is that these signing bonuses were awarded under a different system altogether, and thus may not accurately reflect the bonuses those players might have received under the new CBA. Nevertheless, it is what we have to work with.

The exercise should answer in part what overall effect the current system will have on the team’s ability to acquire talent via the Rule 4 Draft going forward. Will the hypothetical draft yield as promising a crop of talent as the ones that actually took place? Here’s how it turned out

Blue Jays 2011 Picks (First 10 Rounds) - Slot Recommendations

1) 21st pick - $1,290,000
1A) 35th pick - $900,000
1B) 46th pick -$750,000
1C) 53rd pick - $674, 100
1D) 57th pick - $634,500
2) 74th pick -$ 492,300
2A) 78th pick - $463,500
3) 108th pick - $289,800
4) 139th - $189,000
5) 169th pick - $169,500
6) 199th pick - $150,000
7) 229th pick - $150,000
8) 259th pick - $150,000
9) 289th pick - $150,000
10) 319th pick - $150,000

Bonus Pool (First 10 Rounds): $7,789,500 or 7.8m ($8,178,975 with $389,475 or .05% cushion)

Here is a reminder of who the Blue Jays actually took in the first 10 rounds and the bonuses they received:

1)21st pick -Tyler Beede, RHP - *
1A)35th pick - Jacob Anderson, OF - $990,000
1B)46th pick -Joe Musgrove, RHP - $600,000
1C)53rd pick -Dwight Smith Jr., OF - $800,000
1D)57th pick -Kevin Comer, RHP- $1,650,000
2) 74th pick -Daniel Norris, LHP - $2,000,000
2A) 78th pick - Jeremy Gabryszwski, RHP - $575,000
3) 108th pick - John Stilson, RHP - $500,000
4) 139th - Tom Robson, RHP - $325,000
5) 169th pick - Andrew Chin, LHP - *
6) 199th pick - Anthony Descalfini, RHP - $235,000
7) 229th pick - Christian Lopes, 2B - $800,000
8) 259th pick - Mark Biggs, RHP - $600,000
9) 289th pick - Andrew Suarez, RHP - *
10) 319th pick - Aaron Garza, RHP - *
*Did not sign

Actual Expenditure: $9,075,000 or 9.1m (Exceeds bonus threshold by $1,572,300)

Alternate Reality Draft 2011

1) 21st pick – Daniel Norris, LHP - $2,000,000
1A) 35th pick - Jacob Anderson, OF - $990,000
1B) 46th pick –Kevin Comer, RHP - $1,650,000
1C) 53rd pick - Matt Dean, 3B - $737,000
1D) 57th pick – John Stilson, RHP - $500,000
2) 74th pick – Mark Biggs, RHP - $ 600,000
2A) 78th pick – Josh Osich, LHP - $475,000
3) 108th pick –Mason Hope, RHP -$250,000
4) 139th – Chris Marlowe, RHP - $125,000
5) 169th pick –Nick Mutz, RHP - $100,000
6) 199th pick – Jonas Dufek, RHP - $40,000
7) 229th pick - Kevin Quavkenbush, RHP - $5,000
8) 259th pick - Eric Arce, OF - $100,000
9) 289th pick - Nicholas Bryant, SS - $25,000
10) 319th pick –Rob Krall, C - $40,000

Bonus Pool (First 10 Rounds): $7,502,700 or 7.5m ($7,877,835 with $375,135 or .05% cushion)

Hypothetical Expenditure: $7,737,000 or 7.7m + 75% tax

So I ended up pretty close to the original draft, though I exceeded the draft bonus pool by close to 5 per cent, which incurs the penalty of a 75 per cent tax. Not bad overall though. I lose out on Lopes, Smith Jr., Joe Musgrove, Descalfini, and the 22nd pick in 2012 (or Tyler Beede), but I end up with Osich, Hope, Marlowe and Mutz who provide good value, if not the upside of a Smith Jr. or a Beede.

One thing I did notice during the process was that by taking the best players that the Jays drafted in 2011 early on, I had to start cheaping out on picks by the 2nd round, which was kind of disconcerting. I only managed to snag decent talent because of the foreknowledge of who was available at those picks and how much they already signed for, an advantage that no GM is likely to have, meaning they will have to draft much, much more conservatively than I did.

Blue Jays 2010 Picks (First 10 Rounds) - Slot Recommendations

1) 11th pick - $1,863,000
1A) 34th pick - $918,000
1B) 38th pick -$858,600
1C) 41st pick – $814,500
2) 61st pick -$600,000
2A) 69th pick - $530,100
2B) 80th pick - $450,000
3) 93rd pick - $369,000
3A) 113th pick - $267,300
4) 126th pick – $227,000
5) 156th pick – $161,000
6) 186th pick - $150,000
7) 216th pick - $150,000
8) 246th pick - $150,000

9) 276th pick - $150,000

10)306th pick - $150,000

Bonus Pool (First 10 Rounds): $7,789,500 or 7.8m ($8,178,975 with $389,475 or .05% cushion)

Who the Jays actually took:

1) 11th pick - Deck McGuire, RHP - $2,000,000
1A) 34th pick - Aaron Sanchez, RHP - $775,000
1B) 38th pick - Noah Syndergaard, RHP - $600,000
1C) 41st pick – Asher Wojciechowski, RHP - $815,400
2) 61st pick – Griffin Murphy, LHP - $800,000
2A) 69th pick – Kellen Sweeney, 3B - $600,000
2B) 80th pick - Justin Nicolino, LHP - $615,000
3) 93rd pick - Christopher Hawkins, OF - $350,000
3A) 113th pick – Marcus Knecht, OF - $250,000
4) 126th pick – Sam Dyson, RHP - $600,000
5) 156th pick – Dickie Thon Jr., SS - $1,500,000
6) 186th pick – Sean Nolin, LHP - $175,000
7) 216th pick - Mitchell Taylor, LHP - $367,500
8) 246th pick – Logan Ehlers, LHP - *

9) 276th pick – Brandon Mimms, RHP - $230,000

10)306th pick – Tyler Shreve, RHP - *

*Did not sign

Actual Expenditure: $9,677,900 or 9.7m (Exceeds bonus threshold by $1,888,400)

Alternate Reality Draft 2010

1) 11th pick – Deck McGuire, RHP – 2,000,000
1A) 34th pick – Aaron Sanchez, RHP – 775,000
1B) 38th pick – Noah Syndergaard, RHP – 600,000
1C) 41st pick – Asher Wojciechowski, RHP – 815,400
2) 61st pick – Dickie Thon Jr., SS – 1,500,000

2) 69th pick – Justin Nicolino, LHP – 615,000
2) 80th pick – Christopher Hawkins, OF – 350,000

3) 93rd pick - $369,000 - Marcus Knecht, OF – 250,000
3A) 113th pick $267,300 – Mitchell Taylor, LHP – 367,500
4) 126th pick – $227,000 – Hunter Ackerman, LHP – 216,000
5) 156th pick – $161,000 – Sean Nolin, LHP – 175,000
6) 186th pick - $150,000 –Gauntlett Eldemire, OF – 140,000
7) 216th pick - $150,000 – Cole Calhoun, OF – 36,000
8) 246th pick - $150,000 - Tanner Robbles, LHP - 90,000

9) 276th pick - $150,000 – Tim Ferguson, OF – 75,000

10)306th pick - $150,000 - Aaron Senne, 1B – 25,000

Bonus Pool (First 10 Rounds): $7,789,500 or 7.8m ($8,178,975 with $389,475 or .05% cushion)

Hypothetical Expenditure: $8,029,900 or 8m + 75% tax

The 2010 Alternate Reality Draft ends up pretty different from the original but the disparity in talent is not immediately apparent for a number of reasons. 1) A couple of the high bonus guys I removed who were seen as very good prospects with high upside when drafted have so far been disappointments (Griffin Murphy, Kellen Sweeney, Sam Dyson), so few if any Jays fans would miss them if they weren`t taken. Also a number of talented players who we drafted in 2010 did not sign at all, notably; Tyler Shreve and Logan Ehlers.

In this draft, I found myself having to be extremely conservative after the 3rd round, having to take players for their low signing bonuses over talent in most cases in order to use every pick and still have enough left over to sign big budget guys like Thon Jr., McGuire, Nicolino, and Taylor.

Conclusion

Overall, the talent in both drafts I would say is top heavy, which is sort of the intent of the CBA (aside from lowering costs), to make sure all of the best talent goes early to the teams who need them the most. You will still be able to assemble some pretty good talent, but gone are the days of monster drafts where teams are able to go 10-15 players deep in high ceiling talent, by paying guys who fall in the draft. Taking fallers, seems to risky I found, especially since if you fail to sign a pick that entire slot total is lost to you.



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