FanShot

AL Contenders - the Fangraphs comp: Part 1

The Southpaw compares position players projected wars from Fan Graphs among expected contenders, including LAA, Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Tampa, New York, and Texas. Totals for the batters: BRS - 35.6 (39% Pedroia and Ellsbury) NYY - 32.4 TR - 31.4 TBR - 27.7 TBJ - 27.3 LAA - 25.5 DT - 23 She suggests that Fangraphs maybe conservative about the Jays projecting only 1 WAR from lf, projecting Lawrie at 5 WAR (I'd be happy with that), Bautista at 6.5 WAR (worth 8.3 last year), Lind at 1.3 WAR (worth 3.7 in the year we keep wanting back), and Johnson (2.5 WAR - I would take this as well). "I think the Jays have more potential to move up than down - Snider, Lawrie, Lind and maybe Johnson have upward potential - even Bautista might not regress as much as they think. I think this total could break 30. On the other hand, the Red Sox are over-rated by these projections IMO. Ellsbury has had one year at the elite level, Pedroia isn't regressed as much as seems logical, Youk is more likely to go down than up, Crawford has the injury issue, and the SS and RF situation could get ugly. The Rays and Yanks seem less volatile, though I can see TB picking up another WAR or two from Jennings. In my opinion, all four teams (and Texas) fall within a range of 29-33 WAR. the Angels are running behind but they will do much better on the SP and make up ground."

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