FanPost

WAR worries?


WAR is a cumulative stat, and we're not far into the season... so SSS issues abound, but I thought I'd take a quick look at fWAR now that we're about a month into the season, and see if there's anything to be excited/worried about.

fWAR, to date:

KJ = 0.9 fWAR (93 plate appearances)

EE = 0.8 (97)

Lawrie = 0.7 (95)

Escobar = 0.3 (106)

Mathis (!) = 0.3 (18)

Rasmus = 0.3 (86)

Bautista = 0.1 (99)

Arencibia = 0.0 (67)

Lind = 0.0 (81)

Thames = -0.1 (68)

Francisco = -0.1 (14)

Davis = -0.1 (31)

Vizquel = -0.2 (12)

Encarnacion is hurt by his position as DH, and also by his poor defense in the field, but I think there's no doubt we can be ecstatic about Encarnacion and KJ so far, and happy that Encarnacion is taking some PA's away from Lind, who is continuing his 2+ years of basically replacement-level play (Lind's defense has been basically neutral, so far, according to Fangraphs). I was surprised to see Thames at -0.1 fWAR, given his rather impressive slash line of .311/.368/.459, but his defense has been absolutely horrendous, and this is where he loses most of his value. It's hard to imagine Snider would or could do worse. Thames' peripherals also aren't great, as he's sporting an unsustainable .354 BABIP and will likely regress. Escobar, on the other hand, has only a .241 BABIP, so the hits should start falling in. Even with his offensive woes, though, he's clearly still valuable at 0.3 fWAR after only one month of play. Lawrie, despite his power woes, is playing incredibly well, and Fangraphs loves his defense. Indeed, amongst qualifying 3B Lawrie's defense ranks third in the majors, behind Moustakas and Freese. Lawrie has also been the Jays' best baserunner, despite the CS at home the other day. Mathis' production is obviously unsustainable, but wow, has he ever been awesome in an extremely small sample size?!?

Anyway, sample size is too small to be certain of anything, yet, but it's fun to take a look. What do you think?

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