FanPost

Some pensive thoughts on WAR predictions...



There isn't much to this.. asked it in a thread from a few days ago, but think the conversation there has ended, hope it's ok as a fanpost..

Been thinking a lot about projections for this team lately.. and I had some thought that maybe can be easily debunked by all you smart people..
If I understand most of the WAR type stats and projections, the idea is to parse out the individual contributions on each player independent of who is around him, which would be useful to gauge value, especially while changing teams.

But I keep thinking that as a line-up (in particular) improves, that there could possibly be a kind of gestalt increase in players performance around them. Not as much as line-up protection, which I know has been debated, but in things like pitchers having to throw more pitches per game and inning or with guys on base because of more high OBP/good eye’d players, or perhaps that’s just an extension of line-up protection that I’ve heard argued there is no evidence for… Or in the field, does a middle infielder or an outfielder play better or at least get appreciably better results with a better fielder beside him? Does a starter get better results with a better or a more rested bullpen to fall back on?
I guess what I’ve been wondering is that if a team gets good enough does something like additive WAR end up not measuring the total result.. like 2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2+2=19 instead of 18 as the talent level increased.. or maybe I’m out in left field somewhere.
Also I (think I) understand the idea that the 95th win costs a lot more than the 85th.. so maybe it all comes out in the wash that way…

anyway, sorry… rather pensive today

Would love to know how I'm thinking about this wrong, or if there is anything at all to my line of thinking..

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