Continuing on from last week's post on Anthopoulos and the top two stats he focuses on for a hitter – BB% and SO% (percentage of plate appearances that result in a walk or a strikeout), I've decided to look at the Blue Jays outfield for 2013 and how they've done in this area. Just to refresh everyone's memory, an average MLB player will produce the following: 17.7% for SO%, 8.4% for BB% and 2.10 for SO/BB. I've already covered Jose Bautista who's stats can be seen below as a refresher:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 27 | TOT | MLB | 21.5% | 9.4% | 2.28 |
| 2009 | 28 | TOR | AL | 21.0% | 13.9% | 1.52 |
| 2010 | 29 | TOR | AL | 17.0% | 14.6% | 1.16 |
| 2011 | 30 | TOR | AL | 17.0% | 20.2% | 0.84 |
| 2012 | 31 | TOR | AL | 15.8% | 14.8% | 1.07 |
| 9 Yrs | 19.2% | 13.5% | 1.42 | |||
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | PA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 22 | STL | NL | 520 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.64 |
| 2010 | 23 | STL | NL | 534 | 27.7% | 11.8% | 2.35 |
| 2011 | 24 | TOT | MLB | 526 | 22.1% | 9.5% | 2.32 |
| 2011 | 24 | STL | NL | 386 | 20.0% | 11.7% | 1.71 |
| 2011 | 24 | TOR | AL | 140 | 27.9% | 3.6% | 7.80 |
| 2012 | 25 | TOR | AL | 625 | 23.8% | 7.5% | 3.17 |
| 4 Yrs | 2205 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.59 | |||
In 2012, I was pretty happy to see Colby match his career high in home runs (23) and set a new career high with 75 RBI in a season. Although I have to say it was done with a torrid June and a pretty awful rest of the year as Bluebird Banter nicely addressed here.
Looking at these metrics only, one can see that Colby's been incredibly bad as a Blue Jay compared to a Cardinal. Even before the 2011 trade to Toronto, he was having a better year than in 2010 where he posted a career best .859 OPS although that was with an exceptionally high .354 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In-Play where league average is .290 to .310). If Colby's BABIP even returns to his 4-year average of .287, he should have his most successful season as a Blue Jay yet. In fact, Bill James is projecting a .237/.312/.427 (BA/OBP/SLG) with a 9.4 BB% and 23.5 SO% in 2013. The batting average is still low, but the rest of it would be an improvement upon his time as a Blue Jay thus far. I'd certainly take that!
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | PA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 20 | NYY | AL | 19 | 10.5% | 0.0% | |
| 2006 | 21 | NYY | AL | 524 | 11.3% | 10.7% | 1.05 |
| 2007 | 22 | NYY | AL | 612 | 11.1% | 7.0% | 1.58 |
| 2008 | 23 | NYY | AL | 453 | 12.8% | 6.4% | 2.00 |
| 2009 | 24 | NYY | AL | 540 | 10.9% | 8.0% | 1.37 |
| 2010 | 25 | ATL | NL | 509 | 12.6% | 8.3% | 1.52 |
| 2011 | 26 | KCR | AL | 706 | 13.3% | 5.0% | 2.69 |
| 2012 | 27 | SFG | NL | 501 | 12.6% | 7.2% | 1.75 |
| 8 Yrs | 3864 | 12.1% | 7.4% | 1.64 | |||
In looking at what Melky's done, he's been a well-above average MLB hitter his entire career except for the fact that he's a bit under league average in taking a walk. What's interesting is that Melky had his highest BABIP of .379 last year, so we can't expect him to hit .346 again, but a nice .295 as Bill James projects would be great. Besides, if he shows a selective eye, makes contact and gets on-base, I'm sure Anthopoulos and the rest of the Blue Jays would be happy with his performance...especially if he scores 88 runs next year as Bill James also forecasts.




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