FanPost

Debunking the Bautista + EE question marks.

Looking at some of the advanced stats, some concerns around Edwin Encarnacion + Jose Bautista have been greatly relieved. In particular, Bautista looks like a great MVP candidate for 2013.

Edwin Encarnacion's 4 years in Toronto have averaged out to a .230 in isolated Power.

With a bit of regression from .277 ISO of 2012 to his average of .230 (same as Pujol's 2012 ISO), his homerun production should sit comfortably in the mid-30s. In addition, his BABIP sat at .266 in 2012, if it normalizes to his career average of .280, we should see some improvement in AVG.

In the case of Bautista, the stats tell a story of a batter ready to dominate. Looking at spring training, any concerns of him losing some power are unwarranted, smashing 5HR in 49 PA, with a .690 SLG.

In Bautista's 5 years with Toronto, his isolated power sits at .290, with .289 (2012), down from .307 (2011) and a monster 0.357 (2010).

Assuming he hits with 2012 power (which is looking conservative at this point), he should be touching 40HR. But what is really encouraging in the case of Jose Bautista is how incredibly low his BABIP was in 2012 at 0.219, Bautista (outside of pitchers) was the unluckiest batter in baseball last year. If the BABIP creeps up to his career average of .270 or his last 5 years of 0.259 - his batting average should be on the good side of .280

With very realistic projections, Blue Jays fans will look at a their 3rd + 4th batters with some great production. Here's my predictions after looking at the advanced stats

Bautista - .283 AVG, .410 OBP, 42 HR

Encarnacion - .285, .380 OBP, 35 HR

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