Mark Buehrle had a pretty strange 2013 season. After giving up 7 runs in the third inning of the game on May 6 against the Rays he had a 7.03 ERA and we pretty much thought he was done, time to stick a fork into him. That game seemed to embarrass him enough to get him going. He was much much better after that, putting up a 3.43 ERA the rest of the way.
I'm not sure why he was so bad at the start of the season, he generally has started slow, but never as bad as last year. Maybe he was having a hard time getting along with J.P. Arencibia. Since JP isn't here anymore, let's blame him. Or credit him him for the improvement, if you would rather.
Bill James expects a 10-12 record, 3.97 ERA, in 32 starts, 204 innings. Other than the win/loss record, I think that works.
I'd go 3.90, 32 starts, 201 innings, and a 13-10 record or something like that.
I really do like watching Mark pitch, games are quick, he doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about what pitch to throw. You can't sleep between pitches or, you know, comment in a Game Thread, but you have to like someone that is the exact opposite of Jason Frasor. We may not have "loved him", since he didn't give us the best of first impressions, but he was fun to watch.
He's not going to put up an ERA that is much better than league average, but there is value in a guy that can make all of his starts.