Blue Jays ZiPS Projections

Bautista - USA TODAY Sports

Fangraphs has post the ZiPS projections for the Blue Jays.

They figure our top batters to be:

Jose Bautista: 4.0 WAR

Brett Lawrie: 3.3 WAR

Edwin Encarnacion: 3.2 WAR

Jose Reyes: 3.1 WAR

Colby Rasmus: 2.8 WAR

And our top 3 starting pitchers:

R.A. Dickey 3.1 WAR

Brandon Morrow: 2.2 WAR. You know I'm guessing he'll be lower or higher tan that

Mark Buehrle: 2.0 WAR

Of course, those spots aren't the ones we are worried about.

The more worrisome positions:


Fangraphs gives us projections for 4 different catchers:

Dioner Navarro: 279 PA, .264/.325/.420, 9 home runs and a 1.5 WAR. It seems like they don't figure him to be able to handle a full season of work. 1.5 WAR would be a nice improvement from JP.

Erik Kratz: 292 PA, .234/.295/.423, with 12 home runs and a 1.1 WAR.

Josh Thole: 363 PA, .254/.319/.364, 6 home runs and a 1.0 WAR.

A.J. Jimenez: 312 PA, .253/.287/.355, 4 home runs and a 1.0 WAR.

So whatever pairing we end up with, we should be better than last year. I'm not so sure that  Thole would bounce back that much from his lousy 2013, but we can hope. I'm kind of cheering for Kratz to get the job of backing up Navarro.

Second Base:

Maicer Izturis: 372 PA, .259/.314/.344,  4 home runs, and a 0.1 WAR. That's a lot better than last year's -2.1 WAR.

Ryan Goins: 564 PA, .241/.279/.338, 6 home runs and a 0.4 WAR. He's not going to get 564 plate appearances, but the slash line looks right.

Munenori Kawasaki: 397 PA, .246/.302/.303, 1 home run and a 0.1 WAR.

Steve Tolleson: 441 PA, .235/.297/.343, 6 home runs and a 0.4 WAR. .

I'd still like us to pick up a second baseman.

Left Field:

Melky Cabrera: 575 PA, .290/.329/.433, 12 home runs and a 1.2 WAR. After last year, I'd take that.

Anthony Gose: 616 PA, .244/.303/.357, 6 home runs, 29 steals, and a 1.1 WAR

Moises Sierra: 534 PA, .245/.296/.396,15 home runs and a 0.2 WAR.

4th and 5th Starter:

Marcus Stroman: 4.41 ERA, 114.1 innings, 1.2 WAR.

Sean Nolin: 4.51 ERA, 107.2 innings, 1.0 WAR.

J.A. Happ: 4.68 ERA, 125 innings, 0.9 WAR.

Drew Hutchison: 4.55 ERA, 59.1 innings, 0.5 WAR.

Esmil Rogers: 4.82 ERA, 112 innings, 0.3 WAR.

Todd Redmond: 5.49 ERA, 119.2 innings, -0.3 WAR.

Kyle Drabek: 5.86 ERA, 78..1 innings, -0.6 WAR.

Ricky Romero: 5.64 ERA, 146.2 innings, -0.6 WAR.

Please Alex, get us a starter. And give Stroman every chance to win the 5th spot.

Anyway, take a look at the ZiPS numbers and share what you find interesting.

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