FanPost

What will we get from Adam Lind in 2015?

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

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Adam Lind recently finished the 2014 season with a .321/.381/.479 slash line, 6 home runs, and 40 RBI, a stat line that nobody, least of all me, expected. But what can we expect from him in 2015 with the Jays if his option is picked up?

Firstly, the thing that really jumps of the page is his home run total. For a guy who broke out in 2009 with 35 Dingers, and hit 23 just a year ago, 6 home runs is pretty darn disappointing. Lind himself acknowledged that, saying ‘Yeah that’s a problem’, referring to his, at the time, 4 home runs. He seems at loss to explain why his homer total has decreased so dramatically, especially since ‘in Batting Practice I hit it as far as I used to’.

So, why have his homers decreased?

Well, firstly, the thing that is most obvious to me is that he has refrained from pulling the ball whenever possible in 2014. Lind is going opposite field whenever possible, and that is having a dramatically negative effect on his home run total, because, unlike pulling the ball which .requires swinging hard and getting the barrel of the bat through the zone, going opposite field is like ‘flipping’ the ball into play- it is a far less violent swing. This creates an obvious decrease in power. But why is Lind going opposite field? For that I have two theories. One, is that he is following Kevin Seitzer’s philosophy of using the whole field, and trying to hit .300, rather than employing a grip-it and rip-it philosophy, like he did in 2009 under the tutelage of Cito Gaston and Dwayne Murphy. But secondly, it may be something to do with his physical conditioning. In 2012, when he got sent down to triple-A to work on his swing, then Blue Jays manager John Farrell mentioned that Lind was ‘Out of Shape’, and that it had affected his hitting. How, he never mentioned. But, Lind had just a .388 slugging percentage when he was sent down, which suggests that he was suffering from the same lack of power which affected him this year. It is clear to everybody Lind is in worse shape than ever this year. When he first came up in 2007, he was listed at 180 pounds. now, he is listed at a very kind 195.

It would make sense that a heavier Lind would not be able to pull the ball so much- it requires a lot more force, and bat speed which a heavier body will find harder to generate. Edwin Encarnacion backs up my theory here- after his break out season in 2012 he talked about how losing weight in the offseason increased his bat speed and made him able to pull the ball more, creating his extra power.

So, what can we expect from Adam Lind in 2015? Well, that depends on whether Kevin Seitzer remains hitting coach (he will do), and what kind of shape Lind shows up in. I'm going to predict an optimistic .300/.365/.470 slash line with 10 Home runs and 70 RBI over 130 Games, along with his annual 'my back hurts' DL stint. More likely, he will produce a .280/.345/.460 slash with similar counting stats. That still makes him a very valuable player however, and I fully expect him to be a middle-of-the-order force in Toronto next year.

Editor's Note: This is a FanPost written by a reader and member of Bluebird Banter. It was not commissioned by the editors and is not necessarily reflective of the opinions of Bluebird Banter or SB Nation.