FanPost

Juan Perez - Worth another Shot?

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Who holds the Blue Jays' record for consecutive scoreless innings pitched? The incredible Roy Halladay? Roger Clemens? (BOOO!) Dave Stieb? In fact, the answer is very surprising. The relatively unknown Juan Perez, who pitched 23 scoreless Innings consecutively in 2013, holds the record.

Now, I'm not saying Juan Perez deserves to be held in high regard along with the names previously mentioned. But, with the Bullpen still a gaping hole in the roster, would Juan be worth another try?

In 31.2 IP with the Jays in 2013, Perez struck out 33 and held opposing hitters to a .200 average. He posted a 3.69 ERA. And, while it seemed at the time that his outs were simply hard hit balls towards fielders, FIP and xFIP are kind to him, giving him 3.71 and 3.39 respectively. SIERA is even more positive, giving him a 3.14 score. This is a promising indicator of future success - while 31.2 innings is hardly the largest sample size, it isn't terrible, and Perez's peripherals indicate that his success was likely sustainable. Steamer certainly agrees with me - it projects Juan a 3.51 ERA and 3.64 FIP in the Majors in 2015.

For me though, easily the most appealing aspect of Juan's game is his K/9. Since 2006, he has not struck out less than 9 batters per 9 innings in organised baseball, peaking at 13.13 in 2011 with the Phillies Triple-A team. In his time with the Jays, he struck out 9.38/9, and at AAA Buffalo, he struck out 10.71. The ability to strike batters out is incredibly appealing - a strikeout is the most beneficial way of retiring a hitter by far. The fact that Juan has a long Minor League, and decent Major league, track record of striking hitters out suggests that this skill will continue to flourish.

Juan should also come cheap, which is a big positive. It frees up money to be spent in other areas, such as 2B or Closer, and makes this a low-risk investment, as there is very little money involved.

Finally, another positive is Juan's ability to go multiple innings. When he was with the Jays, he often pitched 2 innings at a time, allowing the rest of the 'pen some rest, and eating up innings in Blowouts. Additionally, the extra lefty will help the Jays shield guys like Cecil and Loup from being wasted in LOOGY situations, preventing them from coming in for a full inning later in the game. It could also prevent fatigue that stems from overuse in both Loup and Cecil. Cecil has suffered in the past from this - for example, he had an ERA of 5.65 after the All-Star Break in 2013, before going on the DL with Shoulder Fatigue.

However, Juan, like any percieved quad-A player, has significant problems. His career walk rate is a gaudy 5.61/9 (although it has improved into the 4's in recent years!), and he missed the second half of 2013 and all of 2014 with injuries. These are huge question marks, and prevent him from getting any sort of guaranteed money.

While trawling the internet looking for Perez stats, I noticed a very interesting comparison for Perez - Brett Cecil. Since becoming a reliever in 2013, Brett has struck out 11.5/9, with a BB/9 of 3.9, a shade lower than Juan's 4.26 in 2013. Both are lefties, and both were starters with varied success before finding a niche as a reliever. I don't think Brett's success means anything as to how good Juan will be, it's just interesting that Brett has had a lot of success with a very similar skill set to Juan, in terms of Strikeouts and Walks. It's a promising indicator that high-walk, high-strikeout lefties can succeed out of the bullpen at the Major League Level.

Overall, Juan Perez may well be worth another shot on an incentivised Minor League contract, with an invite to Spring training. His unorthodox delivery will help bring variety to the Blue Jays' Bullpen, and his ability to strike out batters will stand him in good stead. If it all goes wrong, he can help out the Bisons!

Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing him pitch in low-leverage situations in Toronto next year. He seems like he could be a useful addition to the 'pen. When I sat down to write this article, I expected to have to stop after a few minutes because there was no way Perez deserved another shot. After looking at the stats, I think he might do.

Editor's Note: This is a FanPost written by a reader and member of Bluebird Banter. It was not commissioned by the editors and is not necessarily reflective of the opinions of Bluebird Banter or SB Nation.