FanPost

Is Jed Lowrie The Answer?

According to its Wikipedia page, "The Walking Dead" has become the most-watched drama series in basic cable history. This seems like quite the impressive feat, but for horror television nothing has come close to watching the play of Blue Jays second baseman in recent years.

Over the last two years, the Jays are dead last in WAR from second base by almost a full win. It has been ugly. Devon Travis has been brought in, but has no MLB experience and some major critics. For a team trying to contend, going with Goins, Travis or Izturis in 2015 might not the the best idea. I think it goes without saying, the Jays could use an upgrade here.

The free agent market includes options such as Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Everth Cabrera and Gordon Beckham. Unfortunately, that does not exactly scream "quality options" for Anthopolous and the Jays. The one player catching my eye is Jed Lowrie. This post will take a closer look at Lowrie as a potential target.

Background

Lowrie is coming off a down year (by his standards) after posting a 93 wrc+ in 2014, 7% lower offensive production than the league average hitter. He will turn 31 in April and is projected by MLBTR to earn a 3 year 30 million dollar contract on the open market. Though Lowrie has played over 400 innings at second base in his career, he has spent the majority of his time at shortstop. The biggest knocks on Lowrie seem to be declining defence at SS, a weaker offensive 2014, and an injury prone reputation.

Offensive Comparables

Let's start with a fun comparison:

2013-2014 Statistics

Player G HR BA OBP SLUG wrc+
A 290 21 0.271 0.334 0.405 108
B 236 19 0.29 0.338 0.409 107

2012-2014 Statistics

Player G HR BA OBP SLUG wrc+
A 387 37 0.265 0.333 0.412 108
B 396 30 0.289 0.342 0.419 107

These two players have clearly seen very similar offensive production over the last two and three seasons. Player A is Jed Lowrie, while Player B is the Blue Jays own Jose Reyes. For new members of the site, wrc+ is labelled by Fangraphs as "the most comprehensive rate statistic used to measure hitting performance". In summary, Jose Reyes' offensive production as a Blue Jay is very similar to Jed Lowrie's offensive production as an Athletic.

Additionally, over the last two seasons Lowrie's offensive production has been similar to second baseman such as Daniel Murphy, Dustin Pedroia, Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis and Brian Dozier. All of these players come within 2 wrc+ of Lowrie from 2013-2014.

League average offensive production from the second base position in 2014 was a 92 wrc+. If Lowrie can maintain his offence from the last two or three seasons, he will easily be above this average. His career mark to date is a 103 wrc+.

Splits

Let's take a look at Lowrie's recent and career splits:

PA BB% K% BABIP wrc+
Career vs. R as L 1718 9.50% 17.20% 0.283 99
Career vs. L as R 806 8.70% 13.60% 0.312 113
2013-2014 vs R as L 836 8.60% 14% 0.297 113
2013-2014 vs L as R 392 7.40% 13.50% 0.313 98

Over the last two seasons, Lowrie has essentially "flipped" his career splits. Taking a three year sample yields similar results. This appears to be beneficial for Lowrie as approximately 73% of MLB plate appearances came against right handed pitchers last season. Though part of his success has came from a 0.014 jump in batting average on balls in play, his walk and strikeout rates show he has had more success against right handed pitching as of late.

Batted Ball Data

Lowrie (Career) Lowrie (2013-2014) League Average
LD% 21.50% 23.90% 21%
FB% 46.90% 44% 35%
GB% 32% 32.50% 44%
IFFB% 6.60% 6.10% 11%

Lowrie has an interesting batted ball profile. He has been a fly ball hitter his whole career, being nearly 12% above league average. He hits very few ground balls and infield fly balls, which generate to the least amount of runs per out. Since Lowrie's fall ball distance has been consistently below average for his career, he does not seem to be the type of player that "can hit the ball out of any park". Playing in Boston and especially Oakland, parks that aren't very homer friendly, do not seem to be a strong fit for his fly ball oriented approach. A move to the Rogers Centre appears to be a stronger fit for his skill set, which could potentially boost his offensive numbers further.

Another interesting note is Lowrie's improved LD% over the last two seasons. An improvement of 2.5% is encouraging, though LD rates do take quite a while to stabilize. It does appear like Lowrie faced some bad luck in 2014. As Alex Hall of Athletics Nation points out, Lowrie hit "only" .592 on line drives in 2014, which is nearly .100 below both his career mark and league average. Since line drives often go for extra base hits, this seems to have dragged down his offensive numbers by quite a bit.

Baserunning

From watching highlights of Lowrie, I feel comfortable saying he has below average speed. His career high in stolen bases is two. Steamer projects Lowrie to cost close to 1 run one the base paths in 2015, which seems fair.

Defence

UZR/150 pegs Lowrie as a near-average shortstop for both 2014 and his career. He is just one year off of a -9.2 UZR/150 however, and has been worth -28 defensive runs saved at the position over the last two seasons. After reading around, the consensus seems to be confident that Lowrie is a below average defender at SS. He does appear to be "playable" at SS however, and would still provide quite a bit of value with the bat.

Nearly every article I have read seems to agree that Lowrie would be better suited for second base. The website mlbscoutingreports.com says: "Lowrie is better suited at second base because he does not possess the best range to either side. He does not possess great arm strength but makes the most of his ability. Lowrie usually takes a good first step and has great instincts around the bag." After watching highlights of Lowrie, I believe this is a fair assessment. He does not have the arm or speed of a Jose Reyes, but survives by getting an all important good first step.

According to the Washington Nationals SB Nation site, Lowrie is open to a move to 2B if it is for a full-time basis. A team searching for a second baseman will hope his defensive numbers rise after moving away from a tougher position.

Injury History

Lowrie's injury-prone reputation could very well affect him in the free agent market. Before I get into his injury history further, I'll start off by recommending this article from Fangraphs. Though he has missed significant time throughout his career, I am not sure if the injury-prone label is warranted.

Rather than reoccurring injuries, Lowrie seems to be missing time with various unrelated injuries. As the Fangraphs article (above) states: "There was the broken wrist from a guy sliding into second base into his glove. Then he had surgery the next year on that same wrist. In 2011, a collision with his left fielder left him with a subluxed shoulder.(In 2012), someone slid into second base and hurt his leg." In addition to this, Lowrie missed four months in 2010 while recovering from mono. He also missed 14 days in 2012 with a right thumb sprain.

From the end of 2012 to August 2014, Lowrie had gone almost two full seasons without a trip to the disabled list. He then proceeded to break his left index finger in August of 2014, keeping him out for 18 days. Though there is a large list of stints on the disabled list, they do appear to be unrelated and flukey in nature. In his season review of Jed Lowrie, Alex Hall says : "I think we can close the book on Lowrie being a specifically injury-prone player, and conclude that his previous problems truly were a collection of fluke occurrences."

As the Fangraphs article (linked above) says, Lowrie seems to agree that his injuries have been flukey in nature. "I think if you were to ask any of my strength training coaches, (they would say) that i'm one of the hardest- and smartest- workers that they've had in there". Lowrie went on to point out "a lot of my stats have been based on me playing injured." This appears to be an encouraging sign for Lowrie going forward, as Jeff Zimmerman and Fangraphs has found: "players who play through injury often outperform their projections in future seasons".

Conclusion

Lowrie can be expected to provide above average offence at the second base position. His style of play appears to fit better at the Rogers Centre due to his strong fly ball tendencies. Despite a lengthy injury history, his disabled list stints have been flukey rather than reoccurring injuries. He is open to moving to second base, a position he seems to be better suited for. If Lowrie signs for the 3/30 MLBTR projects, he seems likely to exceed 5 WAR over the course of the contract and provide solid value for a team with a huge need at second base. If his range is not strong at second base during the final year of the contract, his bat appears to be strong enough for him to play third base (if later traded).

According to a exchange between Jays blogger Andrew Stoeten and one of his followers, it is believed that Lowrie has spent off-seasons in Toronto while his wife was working in the city. Here's hoping he would not have much of a problem playing in Toronto.

Should the Jays sign Jed Lowrie? Feel free to vote in the poll and share opinions in the comments.

Editor's Note: This is a FanPost written by a reader and member of Bluebird Banter. It was not commissioned by the editors and is not necessarily reflective of the opinions of Bluebird Banter or SB Nation.