FanPost

Joe Maddon's dilemma - IBB Jose Bautista or not Bottom of the 6th inning - May 27, 2014

This Fan Post explores the most interesting (and controversial) managerial decision made in the Blue Jays game last night. With 2 out in the bottom of the 6th inning Melky was on first base with LHP Ramos on the mound facing Bautista with Lind and then Encarnacion on deck.

There are a number of ways at looking at this but I'm going with run expectancies modified by the different possible scenarios. The starting scenario is a runner on 1B with 2 out which, according to the run expectancy table I used has an expectancy of the Jays scoring 0.2174 runs. Depending on the possible outcomes the run expectancy for the Jays would go up or down. If the Rays would have faced Bautista there is a 62.5% (1 - OBP) he would have gotten out in which case the inning would have ended for a new run expectancy of 0. See full analysis and footnotes section below for assumptions, etc.

Please feel free to comment with your own analysis/scenarios or make suggestions to mine (or let me know if this whole methodology is flawed - but if you do this please say specifically why). This is pretty rough back of the napkin stuff (that is probably missing things) partially done while on the train this morning but there is enough of a gap in the different scenarios that there is some room for error. This could get way more complex than it already is but I don't want to go there.

One of the most questionable things about this analysis (at least in my eyes, you might point out worse things) is that I used career splits vs LHP for Bautista. On the other hand I also didn't factor in that Edwin was up next who is obviously also a better than average hitter (there is a 26% chance he gets up to bat if you go with scenario 2 so maybe bump scenario 2 up by 8% - 26% * 30% above average). Depending on the difference So, I think they partially offset. Depending on the difference between Bautista's #s vs LHP career vs the last 3-5 years or so you may want to bump scenario 1 up a little bit more.

For those that don't want to look at the analysis the conclusion is that Maddon made a dumb move by IBB Bautista. If Bautista and Lind were both average hitters vs LHP he would have doubled the Blue Jays Run Expectancy, but of course that is not the case and Bautista/Lind narrowed the gap somewhat.

Anyway, my first fanpost. Yeah!

Joe Maddon's dilemma - IBB Jose Bautista or not Bottom of the 6th inning - May 27, 2014

R(E)

Starting Run Expectancy [R(E)] - Melky on 1B, Jose B up, 2 out

0.2174

1. Don't IBB Jose

0.2174

Scenario

prob

new R(E)

weighted R(E)

Jose out

62.5%

0.0000

0

Jose BB or HBP

15.0%

0.4344

0.0652

Jose 1B - est 60% Melky goes 1st to 3rd

12.5%

0.4589

0.0574

Jose 2B - assume Melky scores from 1B

4.3%

1.3137

0.0565

Jose 3B

0.3%

1.3545

0.0041

Jose HR

5.4%

2.0967

0.1132

Total weighted R(E) don't IBB Jose

0.2963

2. IBB Jose

0.4344

Scenario

prob

new R(E)

weighted R(E)

Lind out

74%

0.0000

0.0000

Lind BB or HBP

5.8%

0.6922

0.0405

Lind 1B - Melky scores, 60% Jose goes to 3rd

14.2%

1.4589

0.2075

Lind 2B - Melky and Jose score

3.1%

2.3137

0.0716

Lind 3B

0.5%

2.3545

0.0108

Lind HR

2.4%

3.0967

0.0746

Total weighted R(E) IBB Jose

0.4050

* - if Lind gets on (26%) then EEE is up and he is an above average hitter so we should further increase scenario 2 #s

Footnotes:

R(E) - Run Expectancy

I used 2011 Run Expectancy table because that was first thing that popped up on my phone and too lazy to change it.

Won't have a material impact using 2013 instead as relativities are very similar.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=975409

used career splits vs LHP for Bautista and Lind

Bautista is better than his career #s, but this should be mostly offset by not taking into account Edwin coming up next

if you don't walk Jose:

chance of getting either Jose or Lind out to end inning

9.8%

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