International free agent Rusney Castillo has completed his paperwork and can now sign a deal "at any time". Could – and should – the Jays be targeting him?
The Good
Castillo is a 27-year-old CF with 70-grade speed and excellent defense in the field. He has also played 2B in the past (2009) but at his recent workout scouts were not overly impressed with his glovework as an infielder.
Still, with the chances of a QO to Colby Rasmus dwindling every day and Gose continuing to struggle at the plate, a "Brett Gardner with power" in CF would be very appealing.
Early reports suggested that RC had not discounted any teams, but was instead focused on the dollars and the term of the contract. Of course, this could just be good negotiation technique, but it at least appears that teams like the Jays are not immediately disqualified.
And finally, Castillo is close enough to MLB-ready that he could in theory join a team for the 2014 playoff run.
The Bad
When Castillo gave a workout on July 26th, representatives of 28 of the 30 MLB teams were present. The success of recent Cuban players such as Cespedes, Puig and Abreu has raised the visibility – and therefore the price – of potentially similar Cuban talent. Historically, it has been the early risk-takers who have benefitted from a new source of players, with the latecomers not doing as well. For every Hideo Nomo there was a Hikeki Irabu, and for every Ichiro a Hee-Seop Choi.
It is not clear how much it would take to sign RC. One scout predicted a contract between $25 and $35 million. Another writer suggested $35-45 million. A further source says that a contract similar to Yasiel Puig’s 7/$42mil is very possible. And a CSN Philly sportscaster suggested that, given the high level of competition, a contract in the range of 5-6/$50-75 million is not impossible.
It is difficult enough to pay that kind of money for a player with no MLB experience. It is even more difficult when the player has not played serious baseball in over a year, and his record in 2012 (the last year he played) was troubling – a .250/.352/.342 line in 43 games, and a .167/.167/.242 slash line in the mini-tournament against the US College National Team.
The Ugly
To some (many?) the ugliest word in baseball is "Yankees". It was recently announced that the Yankees were "ready to write a cheque". And as that Tanaka sweepstakes demonstrated, when it comes down to simple financial resources, it is hard to compete against the Evil Empire.
The Conclusion?
Whoever wins the Castillo sweepstakes will end up paying full value. So unless Castillo turns out to be a Puig-level talent (which most prognosticators do not expect), the best a team can hope for a a solid talent signed for multiple years on a somewhat-below-market contract. But that is not so terrible an outcome. With the level of competition for talent in MLB today, a team is almost forced to gamble to reach the top. In that context, RC might well be worth the risk.