FanPost

Jays Beyond 2015

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In business, it is common practice to prepare a multi-year plan. These plans rarely turn out to be completely accurate, but they allow the companies to identify potential problem situations in advance, and to be ready to make the necessary adjustments.

There has been a lot of discussion recently about the Jays’ strategy beyond 2015. How will they spend the funds that will be freed up when the Buehrle and Romero contracts expire? Will those savings be consumed by the increases coming to Martin and Donaldson, and the arb awards to players such as Hutchison and Saunders? Should the Jays be bidding on FAs like Shields now, or will 2016 be a better time?

So – more as a starting point for discussion than a "hard" prediction – I offer for your consideration the following four-year plan.

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My assumptions are as follows:

Catcher – pretty much Martin all the way for the next 4 years. Possibly bring Pentecost up as his "understudy" for 2017 and 2018, but Pentecost might better be used as trade bait if Martin is still going strong. Note that I assume Navarro will be traded.

First base – I assume we try Smoak for one year and he turns out to be suboptimal. So the Jays sign or trade for a solid-but-aging 1B to a ~1/$10-ish contract, to bridge until Jose Bautista is ready to move to 1B in 2017.

Second base – I assume that Izturis and Kawasaki bridge to Travis in 2015, and that Travis continues as the Jays’ everyday 2B through 2018.

Shortstop – I assume Reyes can stick at SS for 2015 and 2016, but then has to be moved to LF for the last year of his contract for defensive reasons. The Jays sign a good but older SS coming off a bad year to a pillow contract for $10m in 2017, and use them to train Urena (at this point 21 years old) or possibly Lugo (22) as a late-season call-up. Urena or Lugo take over full-time in 2018.

Third base – Josh Donaldson all the way for the next four years.

Left field – Saunders in 2015 and 2016. We re-sign him for something like 3/$24m and move him to RF in 2017, where he replaces Jose. Reyes plays LF for 2017 (the last guaranteed year of his contract) then the spot is filled in 2018 by one of the kids (Anthony Alford, perhaps?)

Centre field – I assume Pompey grabs the job in 2015 and does not let go.

Right field – Jose in RF for 2015 and 2016. We resign him for ~3/$54m and move him to 1B for 2017 and 2018.

Designated hitter – Edwin in 2015 and 2016, with some time at 1B but declining as he ages. We resign him for ~3/$45m and move him to DH full-time.

Pitching – note that the numbers "SP1" and "SP2", etc are just placeholders – they do not imply rotation spots

SP1 – Dickey for the last two years of his contract. Then I assume that one of Hoffman or Castro is ready. The other one is assumed to be trade bait / washout / bullpen.

SP2 – Buehrle for 2015. Then one of Sanchez or Norris is ready to step up. I assume the other is trade / washout / bullpen.

SP3 – Welcome to the Stroman era.

SP4 – I see Hutch as the Dr. Watson to Stroman’s Sherlock. Providing strong, reliable but perhaps unspectacular innings for many years.

SP5 – I see Estrada in 2015. When his contract expires, I assume that the Jays chase one of the big FA SPs. I think Cueto will have a poor year (by his standards) in 2015 due to his 243 IP in 2014, so he might be easier to sign. But Price, Zimmerman, Samardzija, Gallardo, Greinke could all be targets.

Budget – I assume a budget of $140 million in 2015, increasing by 5% per year.

One purpose of a plan such as this is to highlight the possible tradeoffs that could be required under various scenarios. For example, suppose Travis crashes and burns in 2015 and is not in consideration for 2B in 2016. The Jays might want to pursue a Zobrist - but would doing so mean that they have to give up hope of signing a stud SP? What if both Sanchez and Norris are excelling - does that mean that they should deliberately *not* pursue the FA SP, and instead allocate the funds elsewhere?

What do you think? Does this plan make ~sense, or would you do something very differently?



Editor's Note: This is a FanPost written by a reader and member of Bluebird Banter. It was not commissioned by the editors and is not necessarily reflective of the opinions of Bluebird Banter or SB Nation.